The Afghanistan Conflict Thread

This thread is for news and discussion regarding the situation in Afghanistan

The Afghan central government is imploding and its forces disintegrating. The Talibs are now expected to reach the outskirts of Kabul by the end of July/ early August.

The previous analysis can be read here, and still holds water in my opinion

The following 3 to 4 months will carry enormous importance as they will set the framework wherein the next decade in Afghanistan/ Central Asia will have to operate.

The main conclusions so far are

1. Huge loss of face and prestige for the USA. Both politically and militarily. The Vietnam/ Iran hostage crises comparisons are cliche, but tick many of the boxes.

2. China, Russia and to a lesser extent Iran will try to pacify Afghanistan and pull it within the Belt and Road Initiative framework. This will, again, be a serious setback for the USA. If the ANG falls a broken Afghanistan might become in their best interests

3. The Taliban victory will lead to a resurgence of Islamist/jihadist ideology. Much alike the 1979 - 1989 (Iranian revolution, Soviet defeat) and the early 2010s ascension of ISIS/ Al Qaida did. One could argue whether the jihadists have really been on the defensive globally (instead they just relocated to Africa), but this victory will nevertheless be a huge boost for their movements and organisations.
 
3. The Taliban victory will lead to a resurgence of Islamist/jihadist ideology. Much alike the 1979 - 1989 (Iranian revolution, Soviet defeat) and the early 2010s ascension of ISIS/ Al Qaida did. One could argue whether the jihadists have really been on the defensive globally (instead they just relocated to Africa), but this victory will nevertheless be a huge boost for their movements and organisations.
I do not agree with this conclusion, the Talibans are mostly a nationalist movement and their main goal is to free Afganistan from western domination. It will be important to note that the talibans were in power in Afghanistan before 9/11 and nobody knew about them until the United states invaded the country.

Victory of the Taliban group will bring about an islamic state in Afghanistan, it has always been like that but the idea that Taliban victory in Afghanistan will bring about the resurgence of jihadist idealogy is false, The Taliban have never been interested in fighting a jihad or going international, Taliban fighters comprises of only Afghan nationals looking to get back political power in Afghanistan, anyway, the same can't be said of ISIS/Al Qaeda who are jihadists.
 
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I do not agree with this conclusion, the Talibans are mostly a nationalist movement and their main goal is to free Afganistan from western domination. It will be important to note that the talibans were in power in Afghanistan before 9/11 and nobody knew about them until the United states invaded the country.

Victory of the Taliban group will bring about an islamic state in Afghanistan, it has always been like that but the idea that Taliban victory in Afghanistan will bring about the resurgence of jihadist idealogy is false, The Taliban have never been interested in fighting a jihad or going international, Taliban fighters comprises of only Afghan nationals looking to get back political power in Afghanistan, anyway, the same can't be said of ISIS/Al Qaeda who are jihadists.
So do the Taliban recognize the Durand line?

Do they harbour foreign groups like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, al Qaida, Laskhar al Taiba, Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan, East Turkestan Islamic Movement and probably Jundallah (Iranian Sunni jihadists) on their territory?

Ideologically wise the Taliban adhere to Deobandi Islam, which is as much of a reformist 'modern' law interpretation as let's say Wahabism. The core tenets of these ideologies are international and not bound by man-made borders

We will see if foreign actors can reign them in/ domesticate them - like what happened in the case of for instance Saudi Arabia. I am not holding my breath though.
 
So do the Taliban recognize the Durand line?

Do they harbour foreign groups like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, al Qaida, Laskhar al Taiba, Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan, East Turkestan Islamic Movement and probably Jundallah (Iranian Sunni jihadists) on their territory?

Ideologically wise the Taliban adhere to Deobandi Islam, which is as much of a reformist 'modern' law interpretation as let's say Wahabism. The core tenets of these ideologies are international and not bound by man-made borders

We will see if foreign actors can reign them in/ domesticate them - like what happened in the case of for instance Saudi Arabia. I am not holding my breath though.
The president of Afganistan does not recognize the durand lines and even told the talibans not recognized it.

About 70% of the talibans are Afghanis with some foreign group as allies, the idea that the group is a jihadist group is wrong, recently, i have been listening to the spokeman of the talibans and the idea you create of them is totally different from what they potray.

 
The president of Afganistan does not recognize the durand lines and even told the talibans not recognized it.

About 70% of the talibans are Afghanis with some foreign group as allies, the idea that the group is a jihadist group is wrong, recently, i have been listening to the spokeman of the talibans and the idea you create of them is totally different from what they potray.

Address all my points or don't respond, I have little to play another game of whack a mole.

The Tajik Civil War was a spillover from Afghanistan. The Pakistan Civil War was a spillover from Afghanistan. Islamist uprisings in Uzbekistan had direct links to Afghanistan. Insurgencies in Iran get supplies from Taliban territory. Terror attacks in China were planned on Afghan soil

The Taliban hosts a wide variety of terror groups as they align ideologically/religiously. I've already explained their reasoning behind this. The claim that the Taliban is for 99 percent Afghan is wrong - the Afghan Taliban is made up of tens of thousands of Pakistani


As for that video, trusting politicians on their words is not exactly a good sign. The Taliban is right now in the middle of a gigantic propaganda offensive - and it's pretty obviously that they are goaded to this by the likes of Qatar. Meetings in Teheran, Moscow, Beijing, etc. and extending olive branches to people they up until 3 weeks ago tried to blow up by the dozens

Also, parts of that interview were wrongly translated, most notably the parts wherein he speaks about the Uyghurs

Edit: so that means that I consider the Taliban more like Saudi Arabia than like ISIS - a club you for some reason are now talking about
 
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Address all my points or don't respond, I have little to play another game of whack a mole.

The Tajik Civil War was a spillover from Afghanistan. The Pakistan Civil War was a spillover from Afghanistan. Islamist uprisings in Uzbekistan had direct links to Afghanistan. Insurgencies in Iran get supplies from Taliban territory. Terror attacks in China were planned on Afghan soil

The Taliban hosts a wide variety of terror groups as they align ideologically/religiously. I've already explained their reasoning behind this.


As for that video, trusting politicians on their words is not exactly a good sign. The Taliban is right now in the middle of a gigantic propaganda offensive - and it's pretty obviously that they are goaded to this by the likes of Qatar. Meetings in Teheran, Moscow, Beijing, etc. and extending olive branches to people they up until 3 weeks ago tried to blow up by the dozens

Also, parts of that interview were wrongly translated, most notably the parts wherein he speaks about the Uyghurs
Are you trying to distort history?

Tajik civil war was from 1992 to 1997.
Pakistan civil war was in 1971 and lasted for only 13 days.

So what spill over are you talking about, each war started internally and had nothing to do with Afghanistan.

Just like the United states had allies in Afghanistan that allign with their ideological needs, the taliban also had allies that alligned to their ideological needs.

Did you watch the video, the interview was done in English with the taliban spokesman speaking about the agreement the taliban did with the United states on withdrawal of US troops in the country.
 

Robert High Hawk

Kingfisher
"When the Soviets left Afghanistan in 1989, they did so in a coordinated, deliberate, professional manner, leaving behind a functioning government, an improved military and an advisory and economic effort insuring the continued viability of the government. The withdrawal was based on a coordinated diplomatic, economic and military plan permitting Soviet forces to withdraw in good order and the Afghan government to survive.

The Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA) managed to hold on despite the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Only then, with the loss of Soviet support and the increased efforts by the Mujahideen (holy warriors) and Pakistan, did the DRA slide toward defeat in April 1992. The Soviet effort to withdraw in good order was well executed and can serve as a model for other disengagements from similar nations."

I read this somewhere. Compare to how the US left.
 
Are you trying to distort history?

Tajik civil war was from 1992 to 1997.
Pakistan civil war was in 1971 and lasted for only 13 days.

So what spill over are you talking about, each war started internally and had nothing to do with Afghanistan.

Just like the United states had allies in Afghanistan that allign with their ideological needs, the taliban also had allies that alligned to their ideological needs.

Did you watch the video, the interview was done in English with the taliban spokesman speaking about the agreement the taliban did with the United states on withdrawal of US troops in the country.
Mate, do your homework. Or at least use a proper search engine. I am not getting paid to homeschool on issues like these

Deobandi Islam is a reactionary movement that was birthed (in present day India) after the demise of several great Muslim Empires worldwide - most notably the Ottomans, the Mughals (and in the case of the Deobandi the Central Asian khanates centered around the silk road cities). Similar hard-line movements erupted in Sudan (Mahdism) and Saudi Arabia (Wahabbism).

Deobandism is *not* a nationalist ideology. Please read up about it instead of posting generalities, Taliban propaganda and clear historic misrepresentations

This hard-line sect became entrenched in the Afghan-Pakistan border area and was later weaponised by the usual suspects. The Soviet War led to a huge increase in Deobandi seminaries and madrassas in Pakistan. Zia al Haq made sure they received state patronage. Saudi Arabia too played a big role in financing this endeavor. The US (that by that time was already in the grip of the Godfather of the Neo-cons Brzezinski) used this ideology 'to further it's goals in the region'.

The resilience and strength of the Deobandi Mujaheddin (who at some points freely crossed the border) coupled to the US orchestrated infusion of hard-line Islamic ideology in Central Asia led to Tajik Civil War, and several Islamic uprisings in other stans (mostly in Uzbekistan). The same happened in Iran where the Sunni Balochi Jundallah movement was modelled after the Mujaheddin (legend has it they got a little help from the CIA as well).

The 1994 move from warlords to Taliban was simply a Pakistani (ISI) rebranding/reshuffling, and a play to put a friendly puppet regime in Kabul. Up until his last days was Mullah Omar protected and taken care off by Islamabad's ruling class. The Pakistani Civil War was simply an unintended yet classic example of being bitten in the ass by the dog that you feed. The Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan became entrenched in the border area and started a savage bombing campaign in Pakistan.

The same goes for the IMU, al Qaida and the ETIM. These people aren't going anywhere - nor will the Talib leadership tell them to go anywhere

I suggest you read more about the topic. You can start with everything written by Ahmed Rashid, who is the absolute gold standard when it comes to the Taliban - and who was an insurgent for a decade himself.

As for your continuous comparison with ISIS - they are takfiris. The Taliban - like al Qaida, are not takfiris. The Taliban do however embrace a militant internationalist ideology, have vowed to implement Sharia law and have shown genocidal ambition against what they deem apostates.

Whether the Taliban can shift towards a more milquetoast and internationally acceptable version of itself is the big question. I personally am all but convinced that they will get sucked into new conflicts both at home and abroad due to their hardline ideology
 
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Max Roscoe

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
Well, 20 years and a few hundred billion dollars later, America re-installs the Taliban into power in Afghanistan and retreats home. The Taliban will go back to their old ways. Brutal? Yes, but It's their society to run how they see fit. Isn't that inherent in the values of democracy?

They have preserved a traditional pious society, and that is something they have decided as a culture that they value far above things like trinkets from China and access to streaming pornography.

  • Gul Rahim, 38, Taliban judge, has given a glimpse of life under the Islamist group
  • Spoke matter-of-factly about chopping off the hands and legs of thieves
  • Said gays should be stoned to death or killed by having a wall toppled on them
  • Women can leave the house, he insisted, though have to get a permit first


Are they brutal with the gays? Yes. But look at the alternative. Anyway, the best part of the article:

Rahim revealed his vision of justice in an interview with German newspaper Bild, speaking to a reporter close to the central Afghan province where he has been based for several years.
Can't argue with that.
 
Taliban and ANG will hold talks in Doha, Qatar


Taliban have captured the main border crossing with Pakistan, Spin Boldak. The Afghan Army actually put up a fight here. The place is a major source of income and obviously many have gotten rich of the bribes.



Talibs pumping iron.

 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Afghanistan has a very good future, they are loaded with mineral wealth and are the hub of the Asian land mass, with potential pipelines and borders with or near all the great Asian continental powers. The Taliban have been talking with Russia, India, China and Iran, they are going to leverage their geopolitical position to their advantage.

Another prediction: the price of heroin in the West is going to skyrocket, 95% of the supply will be gone next year as the Taliban wipe out the poppies. The globalists will have to wreck some other Asian country to get their opium billions...
 
They can talk all they want, but you can't change the nature of the beast. The TTP is resurgent and has declared a war on China. Last month they bombed the Embassy and yesterday they blew up a bus carrying Chinese nationals killing 9.

This is a big problem.



 
"When the Soviets left Afghanistan in 1989, they did so in a coordinated, deliberate, professional manner, leaving behind a functioning government, an improved military and an advisory and economic effort insuring the continued viability of the government. The withdrawal was based on a coordinated diplomatic, economic and military plan permitting Soviet forces to withdraw in good order and the Afghan government to survive.

The Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA) managed to hold on despite the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Only then, with the loss of Soviet support and the increased efforts by the Mujahideen (holy warriors) and Pakistan, did the DRA slide toward defeat in April 1992. The Soviet effort to withdraw in good order was well executed and can serve as a model for other disengagements from similar nations."

I read this somewhere. Compare to how the US left.

Its because the USA Military Industrial Complex wants the war to be perpetual to continue their record profits:

And the US Military is only good at Tactical victories not Strategy outside of the Gulf War given said incentives.

Otherwise competent Generalship and Strategy would have won the US many wars since Vietnam. What Eisenhower warned about came to pass.
 
Taliban - ANG talks in Doha have concluded. No settlement was reached, Taliban were apparently uncompromising in their stances.


This angered their patrons


Pakistan and the ANG are getting more hostile to each other


Fatemiyoun militiaman killed in Afghanistan. This could mean that Iran has already starting transferring some of its proxy militias to Afghanistan


Article by Ahmed Rashid

 
Two days ago the Taliban launched a simultaneous assault on Lashkar Gah, Kandahar and Herat.

Kandahar and Herat are now surrounded, Taliban have entered Herat. Lashkar Gah is mostly in Taliban hands

Lots of US+ ANF airstrikes going on.

 

M'bare

Woodpecker
Gold Member
I do not agree with this conclusion, the Talibans are mostly a nationalist movement and their main goal is to free Afganistan from western domination. It will be important to note that the talibans were in power in Afghanistan before 9/11 and nobody knew about them until the United states invaded the country.

Victory of the Taliban group will bring about an islamic state in Afghanistan, it has always been like that but the idea that Taliban victory in Afghanistan will bring about the resurgence of jihadist idealogy is false, The Taliban have never been interested in fighting a jihad or going international, Taliban fighters comprises of only Afghan nationals looking to get back political power in Afghanistan, anyway, the same can't be said of ISIS/Al Qaeda who are jihadists.

The Taliban might seem all nationalistic, but wait until China dangles more promises in front of them for access to their country and its resources.

About 4 days ago it was reported:

"China brands America's involvement in Afghanistan a failure and hails the Taliban as a pivotal military and political force."

Also, "the Taliban's delegation is reportedly in Beijing for talks with Chinese officials."

At the end of the day, all of these so called hardcore islamist can be subverted if given the promise of women, wealth and power. Does anything believe these guys aren't looking at Saudi Arabia, Dubai, etc. and wishing for that kind of lifestyle? Islam, but with material wealth and iron fists everywhere.

Unfortunately for their country, they'll have to have foreigners there to keep modern infrastructure going if the Chinese pull off what they're likely aiming ofr -- their average IQ does not bode well for them.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Dubai and the UAE for one have done very well for themselves. Their native rulers are bright visionaries who have implemented a winning strategy for their country, not unlike that of Singapore or mainland China. They were allowed to pursue that goal because they are a small emirate and they toe the Atlantist line on geopolitics. The rulers of Dubai have handled their wealth pretty well, and built one of the world's greatest infrastuctures, financed mostly by their tourism, logistics and international business hub activities rather than their oil and gas revenues, Dubai being much poorer in oil than their neighbors.

In Saudi Arabia, you have a lot of highly educated, fairly upstanding technocrats in the royal family who could have implemented a similar strategy as was done in Dubai, but these royals have been kept on the margin. More recently, a palace coup orchestrated by the US/Israeli deep state has put Mohamed bin Salman at the helm and jailed top Saudis like self-made billionaire Waleed bin Talal and other leading non-corrupt royals. MbS is a drugged out degenerate, kind of the Saudi version of Obama or Macron.

If you want to have a grasp on Arabian politics, the film Syriana, in addition to being a good action flick, does a decent job of presenting some of the dynamics for a mainstream audience. The scenario is pretty similar to what played out in Saudi Arabia with the coup-assisted ascent of MbS.

1627920168278.jpeg


In Afghanistan, China is already backing the Taliban and the parties have reached a basic agreement for cooperation where the Taliban will not foment jihadi terror in Xinjiang in exchange for China financing their future infrastructure. China, Russia and Iran will work towards stabilizing Afghanistan with the Taliban, while the US will try to pursue a similar strategy they did in Syria, sponsoring nihilistic mercenary jihadis in order to foment chaos and balkanize the country. In Afghanistan though this policy will fail because the Taliban are themselves war-hardened nationalists fighting in their homeland. They were already beating well-equipped Soviets and Americans, and now they will be the ones flying the choppers and manning the tanks, so they will have no problem crushing any foreign-sponsored jihadis on their home soil.

5-10 years from now look for Afghanistan to become a fast-growing economy with a solid infrastructure fueled by large revenues from oil and gas transit, gold, lithium and rare earth mining.

 

Easy_C

Peacock
No, I don’t think it will be. The IQ problem is very real, the culture is extremely violent (e.g in my AO a guy shot his own father over a monetary dispute and saw nothing wrong with it), thievery is the norm, and corruption is extreme.

Afghanistan is dominated by low IQ people in a low class mindset and Chinese money will not change that.
 

ScannerLIV

Woodpecker
Dubai was entirely built on the back of slaves -actual labor slaves , on top of being one of international hubs for sex slaves-mostly Slavic and poor Balkan females.

It's a filthy disgusting, exploitative country filled with real xenophobic, sexist and racist people-both rulers and working class people. The idea Dubai is an international touristic hub makes me sick!

I hope it gets nuked or turned into dust as it was before the country was built one day soon enough!
 

Robert High Hawk

Kingfisher
No, I don’t think it will be. The IQ problem is very real, the culture is extremely violent (e.g in my AO a guy shot his own father over a monetary dispute and saw nothing wrong with it), thievery is the norm, and corruption is extreme.

Afghanistan is dominated by low IQ people in a low class mindset and Chinese money will not change that.

I think this is a case where IQ as a predictive measure does not hold up.

They Afghans have successfully defeated every occupier since the time of Alexander the Great.

Additionally, there was genuine progress and stability pre Soviet invasion, albeit mostly built and aided by western and Soviet influence as well.

That said, if the British and US could not even remotely subjugate or conquer said people, and wasted untold riches and lives attempting to do so, with literally no benefit....

Who exactly has the lower IQ here?
 
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