The Afghanistan Conflict Thread

Easy_C

Peacock
A: You have a massive terrain disadvantage. Not just geographically but people wise. It’s an extremely harsh geographic environment with a highly clannish population that speaks an esoteric language backed by a strong religious component.

B: There’s no reason dumb people can’t wage war, and it requires a very different set of aptitudes from those required for construction of systems (although there is some overlap such as risk tolerance).

C: The USA has a fairly atrocious track record when it comes to conflict with actual warrior cultures. It’s always resulted in either a loss and or a victory with unacceptably high losses relative to the gains.

D:None of the points you’ve raised address their capability to establish a first world system. While they have successfully established some good infrastructure for a brief period after World War 2 it got snuffed fairly quick.

I don’t think you’ve been there, and the degree to which everything is corrupt is beyond anything most Westerners can even imagine. Every significant social transition is a result of bribery ranging from permits, to getting jobs, passing the constant “tolls” on roads, etc. even Eastern Europe pales in comparison. The population on average has an extremely high time preference and low impulse control
 

Robert High Hawk

Kingfisher
A: You have a massive terrain disadvantage. Not just geographically but people wise. It’s an extremely harsh geographic environment with a highly clannish population that speaks an esoteric language backed by a strong religious component.

B: There’s no reason dumb people can’t wage war, and it requires a very different set of aptitudes from those required for construction of systems (although there is some overlap such as risk tolerance).

C: The USA has a fairly atrocious track record when it comes to conflict with actual warrior cultures. It’s always resulted in either a loss and or a victory with unacceptably high losses relative to the gains.

D:None of the points you’ve raised address their capability to establish a first world system. While they have successfully established some good infrastructure for a brief period after World War 2 it got snuffed fairly quick.

I don’t think you’ve been there, and the degree to which everything is corrupt is beyond anything most Westerners can even imagine. Every significant social transition is a result of bribery ranging from permits, to getting jobs, passing the constant “tolls” on roads, etc. even Eastern Europe pales in comparison. The population on average has an extremely high time preference and low impulse control

To address your last point: I would only caution against the "snapshot in time" fallacy, where by looking at conditions today overlooks a process or capability of improvement, over a period of decades. Indeed, as you pointed out Afghanistan did have a period of relative modernity and stability, that as far as I know was largely self-administered, with some foreign influence. Did their IQ suddenly increase during that period of time? There are plenty of Afghans with high percentages of caucasian and asiatic genes dating back to even Alexander the Great. Do these genetic groups have a constant and low IQ?

I'm not making predictions here, just saying that it's entirely possible, under the right conditions, because it's at least partially happened before.

Their ability to wage war, to utilize and leverage their terrain advantages, to be convincingly deceitful, duplicitous, and selectively callous to defeat even the British - hardly incompetent campaigners (unlike modern USA) - does attest to more than just blind luck and coincidence.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
A: You have a massive terrain disadvantage. Not just geographically but people wise. It’s an extremely harsh geographic environment with a highly clannish population that speaks an esoteric language backed by a strong religious component.

B: There’s no reason dumb people can’t wage war, and it requires a very different set of aptitudes from those required for construction of systems (although there is some overlap such as risk tolerance).

C: The USA has a fairly atrocious track record when it comes to conflict with actual warrior cultures. It’s always resulted in either a loss and or a victory with unacceptably high losses relative to the gains.

D:None of the points you’ve raised address their capability to establish a first world system. While they have successfully established some good infrastructure for a brief period after World War 2 it got snuffed fairly quick.

I don’t think you’ve been there, and the degree to which everything is corrupt is beyond anything most Westerners can even imagine. Every significant social transition is a result of bribery ranging from permits, to getting jobs, passing the constant “tolls” on roads, etc. even Eastern Europe pales in comparison. The population on average has an extremely high time preference and low impulse control

You could have reached the same conclusions above about Vietnam if you were based there in the early 1970s. The levels of corruption were off the charts, particularly with the population that was interacting with US troops and administration. Yet their country, given enough time and space from foreign interference, is now stable and growing fast. In comparison Afghanistan is a lot richer in terms of resources. As well Afghanis do have a capable mostly expat educated middle class, look for them to return home once the country regains a semblance of stability, the economic incentive will be huge.

A lot of the corruption and violence you saw there is due to decades of violent wars and chaos spread by foreign occupation. You couldn't have had a $50 billion opium business without that kind of continuous chaotic environment. Iraq also was a very stable and peaceful society before the US invaded. Afghanistan was a very good business for the few people at the top that have benefited from that, as well as the $2 trillion open buffet military expenditures.
 
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911

Peacock
Gold Member
Dubai was entirely built on the back of slaves -actual labor slaves , on top of being one of international hubs for sex slaves-mostly Slavic and poor Balkan females.

It's a filthy disgusting, exploitative country filled with real xenophobic, sexist and racist people-both rulers and working class people. The idea Dubai is an international touristic hub makes me sick!

I hope it gets nuked or turned into dust as it was before the country was built one day soon enough!

The "slave labor" knock on Dubai or other Gulf countries is mostly a western SJW construct. Fact is, literally millions of workers from South Asia have been flooding into Saudi and the Gulf countries for nearly 50 years now, because the "slave" wages they get there are still much higher than what they would have gotten at home. If they were really slaves, you'd think the word would have gotten out by now among their communities...

Dubai is not a sex slave hub either, though as an upscale high volume tourist destination you have a significant level of prostitution going on, not unlike what you may find in say London or Paris. You do have eastern block whores who go there on "business trips", but they have to keep a very low profile and thousands get deported from there every year. Israel and its mafias are the real international hub for sex slavery related to the eastern block, and with the normalization with Dubai I would expect that problem to grow.

Dubai is indeed a bit of a hollow artificial modern environment set up to seduce a large clientele of tourists from the West as well as from places like Russia or India who like that kind of experience. It is not my cup of tea either, but the point here is that it hs been an extremely successful enterprise as an independent city-state, and the locals running the show have proved to be very capable, if not downright visionary technocrats not unlike those from Singapore.
 
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911

Peacock
Gold Member
Maybe. The differences are

A: Institutionalized polygamy (disastrous societally)

B: (apologize for factual bluntness). Butt raping little boys isn’t a cultural norm in Vietnam. Think about what it entails that it is.

Not that it will never happen there but I think we’re talking hundreds of years instead of tens.

What was the level of polygamy in a city like Kabul in the 1970s or 80s? Negligible, maybe 1%-3% of men, same as you would find today in countries like Egypt, Pakistan or Saudi Arabia.

Fewer than 1% of Muslim men live with more than one spouse in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran and Egypt – all countries where the practice is legal at least for Muslims.

Places like Saigon in the early 1970s had extremely high levels of prostitution as well, a practice that was not endemic to their culture, but that was brought about by the distortions of war and the presence of thousands of US troops. I would guess that tens of thousands of local underage girls, and quite a few boys as well were part of that morbid scene...

In Afghanistan, child molestation was strictly banned by the Taliban in Afghanistan before the country was invaded, same as opium production and use. This is one practice that you won't see anymore once their country is in their hands.
 
Yesterday and today marked the first two provincial capitals to fall to the Taliban (Zaranj and Shiberghan)

From the looks of it it seems as if the Taliban's strategy is to take over the border crossings/ border areas first. Next they will start taking out the isolated government held cities one by one

The attacks on Lashkar Gah, Herat and Kandahar left them pretty exposed to airstrikes



The US and UK have advised their citizens to immediately leave Afghanistan

 

Easy_C

Peacock
In Afghanistan, child molestation was strictly banned by the Taliban in Afghanistan before the country was invaded, same as opium production and use. This is one practice that you won't see anymore once their country is in their hands.
They don’t exactly ban it in areas they control now.

I’d also very much caution against “The US is bad, so therefore the Taliban is good!” Type thinking.


In our area, Talibans set up bombs where kids would play, then blew up the kids in order to set a trap for the local militia with secondary devices.

If you’re cheering for these people you’re as insane as the people who would cheer for Mitt Romney to win because at least Democrats are bad!
 
I'm going to give my input on this. My cousin married an Afghan who was born and raised here in Canada, but his mom and dad were born and raised in Afghanistan as were his grand parents and they have told me many stories. They were there when the Russians were there, when it was "secular" , when there was Taliban influence and then American influence. He's a good dude, he's Muslim, duh, but he's not by the book Muslim, still adheres to some religious principles from Islam as such but he and his family are not strict at all.

Afghanistan

First off, it's always been a very tribal land. Different tribes would fight other tribes and others would band with other tribes through creating treaties and so forth. They are a very resilient people as you know and will fight foreigners who try to invade tooth and nail. The Taliban were propped up by the U.S to begin with to deal with Soviet influence, sure, but after that was said and done, the Taliban came into play.

Every Afghan that I have talked too (extended family and friends) absolutely detests the Taliban. These are Muslims themselves who lament the Taliban coming into power. They don't care about the fact they have to pray five times a day and so forth, but the issue with the Taliban is that power corrupts and they slowly start playing the "rules for thee not me" game.

I have no idea as to why many here that living under Taliban control is a paradise. Sure, they throw gays off buildings, and stone women that adulterer, but is that what your heart yearns for when it comes to a Utopian society? Everyone talks about killing gays and how they should be treated but I guarantee 99.9 percent of you on this forum would piss your pants if you were the one pulling the trigger or pushing a living being off a building for being gay.

God has the final decision, He has said what he has said about homosexuality and has made society pay the consequence (Sodom and Gamorra) but clearly humans forget quickly. Ban it, or banish those who practise it, let them live on their lives and they will take their judgment in full in the life to come.

The Taliban are no fools either, if you think it's going to be some Sharia Utopian society where Islam is followed to the T you're kidding yourself. The Bacha Bazi crap was happening under the Taliban and under U.S occupation, the Taliban was more strict about it, this is true, they didn't eradicate the practise both among their members and civilians who had weight in the geopolitical arena. Furthermore, the Taliban leadership will simply tag along with whoever pays them the most to exploit Afghanistan for their vast natural resources (Opium, Emeralds and other precious metals and raw materials), only one country comes into mind, China.

China

China has been making massive moves for decades now especially when it comes to financing. They give out loans in massive amounts and the principal and interest payments weigh heavy on the nation who takes the bait. China knows many of the countries they lend money to will not be able to repay them back, so they have collateral in place, things such as fields for crops, mines, airports, ports and so forth. China uses the life blood of a nation as collateral in order to cement their control over the country and ensure the longevity and prosperity of their own.

China's biggest competitor in the region is India. China knows this, they have already bankrolled and enslaved Pakistan, Sri Lanka and they will soon have Afghanistan. China, in my opinion, will also take Nepal and will eventually do to Taiwan what they did to Hong Kong, slowly but surely. To add, I think they will also take Bangladesh as well.

India

Though relationships with China are cordial, they are not true. India knows China's plan and true intentions but are slow to the game. India should have normalized relations with Pakistan before China did, this is a a big plunder and religion/culture was their main obstacle. India, through their RAW wing, funds Afghanistan in order to fight against the Taliban which are funded, supported and trained by Pakistan's ISI. India and Afghanistan have always been cool with one another. Fun fact, most Afghanis detest Pakistani's and lament their children marrying into Pakistani families, regardless of the fact they are Muslim.

Pakistan

Friends with the Taliban and support them in every corner. Pakistan is where most of the Taliban chill when running away from Afghanistan, in the region of Gilgit and Balistan and Kyhber Pakhtunkwa since it is very mountainous. ISI for a fact trains the Taliban and supports them with their endeavours, it's their proxy arm, hence why Trump had no issue cancelling the $300 million that goes to Pakistan from the U.S. Now with the U.S out of Afghanistan, Pakistan has released the flood gates of Taliban fighters into the nation. Pakistan won't do anything because they are China's lap dog and China needs the region. China knows controlling tribal based low I.Q individuals is a walk in the park, give them women, kids, booze, weapons and jewellery.

The end game. I bet life under the Taliban is probably better than life with hard covid lockdown.
Sure, as a Muslim. Go live under them as a Christian, Jew, Buddhist, Hindu or Sikh, if you obtain Dhimmi status consider yourself somewhat lucky. Then pay your taxes and sit their quietly as your son is taken away and converted into Islam and serve in their militia if they so choose. Also, you can sit their quietly as they take your daughter and or wife and do whatever they want with them since you are non Muslims and are to be treated as second class citizens. After they marry your daughter off to a Muslim, she will be a baby machine adding to the name of Islam and you will never see her again.

Covid lock downs are stupid, but t least no one is coming to my door, telling me I'm a second class citizen because of my religion and then taking my mother and sister away from me.

Conclusion

All in all, we have to watch how this unfolds. Will the U.S re engage in this war proxy style? Or will they sit out completely? Has Afghanistan fallen into the hands of China for good in order to feed their silk road project and gain dominance in the Eastern hemisphere?
 

Easy_C

Peacock
I have no idea as to why many here that living under Taliban control is a paradise. Sure, they throw gays off buildings, and stone women that adulterer, but is that what your heart yearns for when it comes to a Utopian society? Everyone talks about killing gays and how they should be treated but I guarantee 99.9 percent of you on this forum would piss your pants if you were the one pulling the trigger or pushing a living being off a building for being gay.

As someone who has seen the place first hand as an “advisor” working with the Afghans daily (and not some back office PowerPoint schmuck in a office inside some massive, safe compound) I will second your post and say you’re largely on point with your description of Afghanistan.
It’s a low IQ binary mindset. Most of their emotional response is rooted in hatred of one thing (“ZOG”) so therefore they will react positively to anything that doesn’t get along with that. It’s not entirely unlike the people who voted for Biden without knowing anything about him just because they hated Trump.

I think you’ve indirectly hit on the key point: the common thread of everything that goes on in Afghanistan is bribery. Very few of them practice what they preach and for a lot of reasons (many of which you’ve touched upon) it’s a country where power is held by predators. In a lot of ways it’s not that far off from being Borderlands: Muslim Edition.
 
Since the last update the Taliban have captured 4 more provincial capitals: Aybak, Fayzabad, Farah, Pul i Khumri



US has recently increased its bombings in Afghanistan. This is in clear violation of the Doha Agreements. These bombers and jets reach Afghanistan through Pakistani airspace.


Map of the current situation
 

Max Roscoe

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
It's kind of refreshing seeing the Taliban undo 20 years of American occupation in a matter of days.

Whatever faults the Taliban may have, much of their rapid success is due to the Afghan people supporting and welcoming them, and anyway, I'll take the wager that has proven true in every single conflict the US has fought in my lifetime and bet that the side the USA supported were the Bad Guys.

But, good guys or bad guys, these guys are going to be the new government. They are on the verge of capturing Billions of dollars of military equipment, and will instantly have one of the most powerful military forces for thousands of miles.


Afghanistan will go on much as it was before, but it sucked up trillions of dollars and 20 years from tens of thousands of American minds and bodies, and likely struck a blow from which the US may never recover. The reality is we didn't have a few trillion dollars to spare, and we devoted scarce resources, efforts, lives, and time on an endeavor that was totally erased in a matter of days. It's like literally lighting money on fire in the desert, only add in the wasted lives, time, and energies.
 

Easy_C

Peacock
Whatever faults the Taliban may have, much of their rapid success is due to the Afghan people supporting and welcoming them, and anyway, I'll take the wager that has proven true in every single conflict the US has fought in my lifetime and bet that the side the USA supported were the Bad Guys.
As ably spoken by someone who has never actually seen anything going on there in person.
 
The retreat is becoming a rout. Taliban have taken over Ghazni, which is considered the Southern gateway towards Kabul (around 150 km away). Attacks on Kandahar, Lashkar Gah and Herat have been renewed, reports of ANA melting away/surrendering/defecting in Nili, Qalat, Tarin Kot, Baghlan.



Thank you Uncle Sam and Uncle Pajeet,

Much luv,

Rashid & Abdul.




Not going to help them I am afraid.


This is true. Many of the NGOs that are 'educating' young Afghans are straight up globohomo outlets, like the British Council of Education

https://mobile.twitter.com/FischerKing64/status/1425645877935239169
 
It's kind of refreshing seeing the Taliban undo 20 years of American occupation in a matter of days.

Whatever faults the Taliban may have, much of their rapid success is due to the Afghan people supporting and welcoming them, and anyway, I'll take the wager that has proven true in every single conflict the US has fought in my lifetime and bet that the side the USA supported were the Bad Guys.

But, good guys or bad guys, these guys are going to be the new government. They are on the verge of capturing Billions of dollars of military equipment, and will instantly have one of the most powerful military forces for thousands of miles.


Afghanistan will go on much as it was before, but it sucked up trillions of dollars and 20 years from tens of thousands of American minds and bodies, and likely struck a blow from which the US may never recover. The reality is we didn't have a few trillion dollars to spare, and we devoted scarce resources, efforts, lives, and time on an endeavor that was totally erased in a matter of days. It's like literally lighting money on fire in the desert, only add in the wasted lives, time, and energies.
You’re so off the mark on some of your points it’s ridiculous. I agree with you on the waste of U.S resources (money, lives, ppe etc ), but the Talibans rapid success is due to people supporting them? No, that’s not the case.

The reason the taliban are able to spread quickly is because: there’s no opposing force, there’s a lack of arms that local villagers and city folks can’t use to defend their lands and way of life and of course the Taliban is being funded by the Pakistani ISI.

Majority of Afghans that I know and talk to, detest the Taliban and the way the dictate sharia law and certain Islamic principles.

Please educate yourself on the different tribes in Afghanistan and that the situation is more complex than what you see and hear.

I know people (friends and family) who lived there during the soviet era, American occupation and that still live there now. Taliban belongs to the highest bidder. That’s it.
 

Robert High Hawk

Kingfisher
You’re so off the mark on some of your points it’s ridiculous. I agree with you on the waste of U.S resources (money, lives, ppe etc ), but the Talibans rapid success is due to people supporting them? No, that’s not the case.

The reason the taliban are able to spread quickly is because: there’s no opposing force, there’s a lack of arms that local villagers and city folks can’t use to defend their lands and way of life and of course the Taliban is being funded by the Pakistani ISI.

Majority of Afghans that I know and talk to, detest the Taliban and the way the dictate sharia law and certain Islamic principles.

Please educate yourself on the different tribes in Afghanistan and that the situation is more complex than what you see and hear.

I know people (friends and family) who lived there during the soviet era, American occupation and that still live there now. Taliban belongs to the highest bidder. That’s it.
I disagree. Let's see what happened when the Soviets withrdrew (from (((wikipedia))):

"Ironically, until demoralized by the defections of its senior officers, the Afghan Army had achieved a level of performance it had never reached under direct Soviet tutelage. Kabul had achieved a stalemate that exposed the mujahideen's weaknesses, political and military. But for nearly three years, while Najibullah's government successfully defended itself against mujahideen attacks, factions within the government had also developed connections with its opponents."

THREE YEARS.

Do you see anything close to that happening now? And this is with a MUCH better equipped and funded Afghan Army and Police force.

The Taliban are rolling over Afghanistan. Entire divisions are surrendering, even with US strategic Airpower backing them up, a luxury the Soviets never gave the last government after they left.

Do you seriously think such a joke of resistance would not occur if there wasn't at least a little bit of acceptance, or ambivalence, of the Taliban over what they have now?

I also want to address the fact that, your distant in laws notwithstanding, we all have our own valid opinions on this. And with sincere respect to what your in laws, they have just one of - as emigrees - that may have it's own bias and blind spots. Perhaps huge ones, which is why they were smart enough to leave in the first place.

Other people may have spent time in Afghanistan, and that too, gives its own unique perspective of one location, in one span of several months.

The Taliban's stunning takeover of the country is incredible to watch, and would not happen with such lightning speed if there wasn't some openness to it, or a insanely gross miscalculation of how stable things were.
 
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