The Afghanistan Conflict Thread

2007:
March 2007 video, Why the Afghans want the Taliban back. Mentions the ever present split between Kabul and the rest of Afghanistan.


The Taliban were rubbish and under ISAF things were then even worse.
Now the Taliban are back and everyone in Kabul will be on eggshells.

The Qataris, Saudi helpers etc. will know this and know to keep things clean and stable as much as they can.
 
Afghanistan has disappeared out of the news cycle but it remains relevant in the geopolitical chessgame

Some developments:

* Resurgence of ISKP (Islamic State Khorasan Province). ISKP is more active than it was in 2016-2019, when it controlled part of Eastern Afghanistan

ISKP is primarily active in Eastern Afghanistan


* Lots of tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban. Not really clear what is happening here. Pakistan is allegedly keeping many higher up Talibs family members hostage in Pakistan, and wants Afghanistan for itself. Many low level Taliban are hostile to Pakistan

Yesterday a border clash resulted in (allegedly) three dead Pakistani soldiers


* The TTP ( the Pakistani Taliban) are resurgent. Some TTP factions (Gul Bahadur faction) are (allegedly) in talks with the Pakistanis. TTP don't seem to be willing to bend the knee - even though (again allegedly) de facto self-governance has been proposed to them in some of their key areas (North&South Waziristan, Bajaur). They want more areas and possibly all of Pakistan governed under Sharia law.


* There is still a monetary crisis. The money has been frozen (by the US) and banks barely function. Little to none outside help so far. China is sitting on the fence, Russia is sitting on the fence, and the regional powers are sitting on the fence. This is of course a far cry from the individuals that rushed into this threat trying to mold the Afghanistan events in such a way that it would fit into their worldview

* No country has so far recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. None. This is a big tell.
 
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C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Afghanistan has disappeared out of the news cycle but it remains relevant in the geopolitical chessgame

Some developments:

* Resurgence of ISKP (Islamic State Khorasan Province). ISKP is more active than it was in 2016-2019, when it controlled part of Eastern Afghanistan

ISKP is primarily active in Eastern Afghanistan


* Lots of tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban. Not really clear what is happening here. Pakistan is allegedly keeping many higher up Talibs family members hostage in Pakistan, and wants Afghanistan for itself. Many low level Taliban are hostile to Pakistan

Yesterday a border clash resulted in (allegedly) three dead Pakistani soldiers


* The TTP ( the Pakistani Taliban) are resurgent. Some TTP factions (Gul Bahadur faction) are (allegedly) in talks with the Pakistanis. TTP don't seem to be willing to bend the knee - even though (again allegedly) de facto self-governance has been proposed to them in some of their key areas (North&South Waziristan, Bajaur). They want more areas and possibly all of Pakistan governed under Sharia law.


* There is still a monetary crisis. The money has been frozen (by the US) and banks barely function. Little to none outside help so far. China is sitting on the fence, Russia is sitting on the fence, and the regional powers are sitting on the fence. This is of course a far cry from the individuals that rushed into this threat trying to mold the Afghanistan events in such a way that it would fit into their worldview

* No country has so far recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. None. This is a big tell.
The various tribes in Afghanistan and Western Pakistan, mostly Pashtun, are always fighting with each other, even if many of them are "Taliban." One of the problems with the NATO occupation of Afghanistan was that it prevented the rival Pashtun tribes from establishing a competitive equilibrium with each other through various levels of conflict. Some of the tribes are allies of the Pakistani government and some are enemies.
 

dicknixon72

Pelican

Here's where the extra money goes...
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The various tribes in Afghanistan and Western Pakistan, mostly Pashtun, are always fighting with each other, even if many of them are "Taliban." One of the problems with the NATO occupation of Afghanistan was that it prevented the rival Pashtun tribes from establishing a competitive equilibrium with each other through various levels of conflict. Some of the tribes are allies of the Pakistani government and some are enemies.
Yes and no. The different tribes have a long history of infighting and turning coat, and the right to move towards armed confrontation is rooted in their pre-Islamic Pashtunwali (common) lawcode

But when a strong leader emerges the tribes/ groups rally behind him. Historically these where leaders like Ahmed Shah Durrani (founder of the Durrani Empire) and Sultan Mohammed Khan (founder of the original Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan)

Mullah Omar was such a strong and powerful leader. There wasn't any infighting under his command, and most of the internal opposition came from ideological differences. The TTP rallied around Baitullah Mehsud and later Hakeemullah Mehsud. Especially Hakeemullah was an exceptionally talented leader and commander.

When Fazlullah, who was much more incompetent, took over in 2013 things went south. Infighting (not with words but with guns) paralyzed the movement, the TTP crumbled, and they lost all their territory within 5 years. The lack of a serious bureaucracy means that any progress of inter-tribal ties usually gets lost whenever one of these competent leaders gets assassinated.

It's unclear where the current leader stands, and how much support he has gathered. The Gul Bahadur TTP faction is strong and in favor of talks with the Pakistani. The Haqqanis are equally powerful and have known links to the ISI. Any potentially unifying group will have to break their influence first.
 
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Max Roscoe

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
The various tribes in Afghanistan and Western Pakistan, mostly Pashtun, are always fighting with each other, even if many of them are "Taliban." One of the problems with the NATO occupation of Afghanistan was that it prevented the rival Pashtun tribes from establishing a competitive equilibrium with each other through various levels of conflict. Some of the tribes are allies of the Pakistani government and some are enemies.
You can be sure if any of these people do something "bad" then they are immediately Taliban (or ISIS-K or ISIL or Al Queda or whatever the enemy that we have "always been at war with" in Orwellian form).

Much as "Al Queda" never existed as a real group until the US memed it into existance, and went on a rampage killing and plundering, and telling people that if they opposed the Globohomo invasion, they were part of Al Queda, and therefore these people organically became Al Queda, they will define people as being part of whatever organization they can use to push their agenda.

Just as anyone who cites crime statistics or wants to live in a homogeneous neighborhood is a "white supremacist."
The reality is most of Afghanistan (and really most of the world) consists of people mostly acting independently. There is tragically little organized opposition to anything our leaders are doing, from whatever side.
 
You can be sure if any of these people do something "bad" then they are immediately Taliban (or ISIS-K or ISIL or Al Queda or whatever the enemy that we have "always been at war with" in Orwellian form).

Much as "Al Queda" never existed as a real group until the US memed it into existance, and went on a rampage killing and plundering, and telling people that if they opposed the Globohomo invasion, they were part of Al Queda, and therefore these people organically became Al Queda, they will define people as being part of whatever organization they can use to push their agenda.

Just as anyone who cites crime statistics or wants to live in a homogeneous neighborhood is a "white supremacist."
The reality is most of Afghanistan (and really most of the world) consists of people mostly acting independently. There is tragically little organized opposition to anything our leaders are doing, from whatever side.

This is the US playbook. You can see it also in the war on drugs with the supposed Medellin and Cali cartels, which were never the homogenous organisations the US portrayed them as. Also today with the "Anti-vaxxer" conspiracy group, ie anyone who opposes government corona policies.
 

Max Roscoe

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
This is the US playbook. You can see it also in the war on drugs with the supposed Medellin and Cali cartels, which were never the homogenous organisations the US portrayed them as. Also today with the "Anti-vaxxer" conspiracy group, ie anyone who opposes government corona policies.
You betcha.

 
How are these people so delusional, and why is it that in politics only sociopaths manage to stay afloat?

Flying into Afghanistan with pallets of cash, handing it out to the locals on the street corner and all this whilst evading the Taliban authorities.

I'd like to see them try though.


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Lots of activity in Bagram Airbase, could be the Chinese


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Many if not most of the Taliban's accounts have been suspended from Twitter

 
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