The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
soum500 said:
I still own my Bitcoin, honestly I'm just curious to know how it's going to move in the years that come some good post on the subject.
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-is-2019s-best-performing-asset-even-after-recent-price-downturn
https://cryptoslate.com/november-ha...-performing-month-will-this-one-be-different/
https://moreforexbrokers.com/best-forex-brokers/
https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-marks-its-best-week-since-may-crypto-weekly-report/
I want to invest $1000 in a new cryptocurrency do you have any suggestions for me?
It is a bit unclear what you are asking because 1) this is a bitcoin thread, and sure your links are positive about bitcoin which is fine and seems that you should already realize that there is nothing wrong with just continuing to invest in bitcoin and 2) you seem to be asking what is the next bitcoin or how (not whether) you should diversify your risk, which is not necessarily by investing into some shitcoin, merely because either the shitcoin is claiming that there is something wrong with bitcoin or that they are improving on bitcoin in some kind of way.

So, maybe you can clarify your purpose here? I am assuming that the rest of your finances are o.k. and that you have already invested sufficiently in bitcoin (which you asserted), but maybe I am assuming too much?
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Whatever you do, make sure that you understand all the security aspects of housing crypto-currencies. This is a long and interesting article about Quadriga, which became Canada’s dominant Bitcoin marketplace -- only to have its owner mysteriously "die" and have all its BC become inaccessible. It also highlights the risk of placing all your funds into one investment.

(For months, Miller Thomson, the Bay Street law firm appointed to represent the class of creditors, received hundreds of emails a day inquiring about the lost funds, and answered such a constant barrage of phone calls—heartbreakers about lost pensions and college savings, babies crying in the background—that its lawyers could do little else.)
A month passed before Robertson announced on Quadriga’s Facebook page that Cotten had died. During that time Quadriga continued to accept new funds but returned none. Creditors began to ask questions online about the authenticity of the formal documents in a country notorious for the ease at which falsified documents can be purchased, particularly after they learned that the death certificate misspelled Cotten’s name, and that the former chairman and managing director of the company that ran the hospital had been convicted of financial fraud two months earlier. It was also revealed that Cotten had written his will just four days before leaving for India. It detailed C$12 million in real estate holdings, the Lexus, the Cessna, and the Gulliver; it left C$100,000 for the care of their Chihuahuas. The will made no mention of the external hard drives, called cold wallets, in which Cotten had stored most of Quadriga’s funds.

This was the detail that most shocked cryptocurrency professionals. If Trust No One was the first principle of Bitcoin, the second was Have a Plan B, and the third was Have a Plan C. If you lose the keys to your house, you can call a locksmith; if you forget the password to your savings account, your bank will provide a new one. If you lose the private key to your cryptocurrency wallet—a long, randomly generated password, all but impossible to memorize—your funds are gone forever.
Because Canadian banks refused to accept cryptocurrency businesses as clients, Quadriga had to rely on third-party processors, which levied outrageous fees and in some cases stole funds outright. One Quadriga contractor claims today that the payment processor WB21, now the subject of federal lawsuits in the United States, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, stole $14 million, and that another processor stole $5.8 million. (Patryn, Jennifer Robertson, and at least a couple of other Quadriga contractors each operated their own payment processing firms—a significant conflict of interest, though not illegal.) There was also the C$21 million seized by CIBC and the software glitch, which cost Quadriga C$14 million overnight.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/11/the-strange-tale-of-quadriga-gerald-cotten
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Tail Gunner said:
Whatever you do, make sure that you understand all the security aspects of housing crypto-currencies. This is a long and interesting article about Quadriga, which became Canada’s dominant Bitcoin marketplace -- only to have its owner mysteriously "die" and have all its BC become inaccessible. It also highlights the risk of placing all your funds into one investment.

(For months, Miller Thomson, the Bay Street law firm appointed to represent the class of creditors, received hundreds of emails a day inquiring about the lost funds, and answered such a constant barrage of phone calls—heartbreakers about lost pensions and college savings, babies crying in the background—that its lawyers could do little else.)
A month passed before Robertson announced on Quadriga’s Facebook page that Cotten had died. During that time Quadriga continued to accept new funds but returned none. Creditors began to ask questions online about the authenticity of the formal documents in a country notorious for the ease at which falsified documents can be purchased, particularly after they learned that the death certificate misspelled Cotten’s name, and that the former chairman and managing director of the company that ran the hospital had been convicted of financial fraud two months earlier. It was also revealed that Cotten had written his will just four days before leaving for India. It detailed C$12 million in real estate holdings, the Lexus, the Cessna, and the Gulliver; it left C$100,000 for the care of their Chihuahuas. The will made no mention of the external hard drives, called cold wallets, in which Cotten had stored most of Quadriga’s funds.

This was the detail that most shocked cryptocurrency professionals. If Trust No One was the first principle of Bitcoin, the second was Have a Plan B, and the third was Have a Plan C. If you lose the keys to your house, you can call a locksmith; if you forget the password to your savings account, your bank will provide a new one. If you lose the private key to your cryptocurrency wallet—a long, randomly generated password, all but impossible to memorize—your funds are gone forever.
Because Canadian banks refused to accept cryptocurrency businesses as clients, Quadriga had to rely on third-party processors, which levied outrageous fees and in some cases stole funds outright. One Quadriga contractor claims today that the payment processor WB21, now the subject of federal lawsuits in the United States, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, stole $14 million, and that another processor stole $5.8 million. (Patryn, Jennifer Robertson, and at least a couple of other Quadriga contractors each operated their own payment processing firms—a significant conflict of interest, though not illegal.) There was also the C$21 million seized by CIBC and the software glitch, which cost Quadriga C$14 million overnight.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/11/the-strange-tale-of-quadriga-gerald-cotten
Are you saying that you manage your bitcoins in accordance with the guidelines of this article, too?

From your perspective, Tail Gunner, the article is suggesting some kind of balanced considerations for BTC investors to be taking into account?
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Nolimitz said:
Crickets since 12-1. Seems like a good time to buy! Personally strategy is average in weekly...and 6k below (IF it gets there) load up.
Below is an interesting assertion in an article from today about the hash ribbon converting to a buy signal... suggesting that bitcoin is bullish... 

So, I suppose in that sense the assertions of the article are on the same page as you in terms of these being possible "buy territories."


https://libr.co/the-most-lucrative-signal-in-bitcoin-history-just-flipped-buy/


Here's a tweet discussion:

https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1210713524693024768


Many regular people who get into bitcoin have a lot more difficulties considering how to assess exactly when to buy or if they should wait, yet I doubt that people who have been dollar cost averaging since $19,666 in December 2017 or dollar cost averaging since $13,880 in June 2019 are going to be in bad shape in terms of their bitcoin holdings in a few years from now, and they are likely to be even much further in front of the curve if they have a BTC investment horizon that is 5 to 10 years or more.

If you pick up a bit more on dips or don't buy as much during BTC price surge periods, then all the more power to you, yet frequently there is a need for regular people to figure out what is there buy target amount too... How much of their portfolio are they aiming to make their bitcoin investment? Somewhere between 1% and 10% or perhaps some other amount that might vary depending on their personal circumstances, including what other investments they have.
 

puckerman

Ostrich
Where is the best place to buy and sell Bitcoin? I signed up for Coinbase. I don't really like Kraken. I am looking at Binance, CEX, Bittrex, or Local Bitcoins. I am in the United States of America.
 

gework

Pelican
Gold Member
If you are looking to buy by card you can buy from Wirex for about 1-1.5% for BTC. Most others charge about 3-4% for card purchases.

The first purchase has a limit for about $100, then $1,000; and $5,000 thereafter.

It looks like it's on a downwards trajectory for the next few weeks to me.
 

puckerman

Ostrich
gework said:
If you are looking to buy by card you can buy from Wirex for about 1-1.5% for BTC. Most others charge about 3-4% for card purchases.

The first purchase has a limit for about $100, then $1,000; and $5,000 thereafter.

It looks like it's on a downwards trajectory for the next few weeks to me.
What is this site? Does it have anything to do with cryptocurrency? Can I sell Bitcoin there?
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
puckerman said:
Where is the best place to buy and sell Bitcoin? I signed up for Coinbase. I don't really like Kraken. I am looking at Binance, CEX, Bittrex, or Local Bitcoins. I am in the United States of America.
When you are asking about "best", I am not sure what you mean... Maybe the lowest fees and the most safety in terms of NOT risking too much of an exit scam with your funds? Or risk that your funds will not get frozen, especially during periods of volatility, when you might be more motivated to move them for personal or profit reasons? And, yeah, your question itself seems to suggest that one of your goals would be to have a one-stop shopping location, but that might not even be realistic or a preferred practice under current market circumstances.

When it comes to buying and selling bitcoin, sometimes, these days you might not really be able or willing to employ one-stop shopping, because that one stop shopping might not even be available to achieve your goals depending on what exactly you are trying to achieve and what would be to your personal benefit(s).

In other words, you might not like my answer, but for your own goals, you might not be able or even willing to do your exchanges on the same site, unless you are playing around with really small amounts of less than a $1,000 in a year, for example, and surely over the years, the dynamics of what is available and the terms have changed in terms of the number of buying, selling or storage options that you have, and even the amount of KYC requirements that have to be done.. or for example "shotgun KYC" which kicks in as soon as you try to withdraw or withdraw over a certain amount then you get surprised with KYC that might end up block you or delay you from being able to employ the transaction that you want to achieve.

So, there surely continues to exist a considerable amount of wild, wild west out there in bitcoinland, and even shifting of the terrain that is difficult to keep track of, and you cannot even necessarily rest assured when you believe that you have set up some mechanisms for yourself.

For USA customers Coinbase pro is a decent one stop shopping location until you try to do anything too adventurous or even to transact in any kind of way that involves larger amounts. I used them for several years, and then in early 2018 they put a freeze on my account that initially seemed to be based on my making a bank deposit of around $500, and then it took several months before they unfroze my account, and then told me that I could not interact with my bank account, and I had to withdraw all my BTC.. which they allowed me to trade whatever dollar value and to withdraw the BTC before freezing that function too..... So, yeah, the explanation was far from complete, and those kinds of experiences have happened to others too, and it seems to me that it could have to do with having trades or movement of money that goes over certain amounts, and even that is not clear to me, either. Those fucks.

Gemini is an option in the USA for buying and selling, and Uphold, too. I have used both of those.

There are some services that I have not used, but I hear good things about them, and maybe I will set up some accounts, at some point. There is square app and Robinhood for buying, though Robinhood does not allow you to transfer off of their platform. There are also services like Lolli and Fold that allow you to earn bitcoin by spending through their services and they give you rewards through bitcoin. One of the complaints about Lolli has been that it takes a bit of time before the BTC is actually credited to your account... maybe even more than a month.

There are some decentralized services that are still in development and adoption that are still credible, such as bisq, and even though localbitcoins seems to have completely abandoned USA in terms of cash transaction, it might be fruitful to continue to watch them, or even Paxful, to the extent that they might have any ability to allow cash transactions. Furthermore, if there are bitcoin meetups in your area, or if you want to create some kind of bitcoin meet up in your area, then getting to know actual people can cause for avenues to buy and sell BTC in a kind of direct way that had been intended to be possible with bitcoin.

I am NOT going to apologize for the complexity of my answer, because I have felt a considerable amount of frustration in this space in terms of the evolving landscape and liquidation options available, yet these kinds of frustrations do not cause me to change my ideas about the continuation that bitcoin remains a good investment to buy and to accumulate until you reach a position that you feel comfortable, which I still believe that 1% to 10% of your quasi-liquid investment capital remains a good starting point to consider, and of course, tailorize to your own specifics from there.

Another recommendation that I believe remains prudent in these times is to attempt to establish a few avenues in which you are able to liquidate. Of course, if you are in an accumulation stage of your investment, then liquidation is not necessarily on the forefront of your ideas or even imminently necessary, yet I continue to believe that it is prudent to always have a few different liquidation options that seem to be currently available to you, even if you are not exercising them, and maybe even to test them out from time to time, so that you would not necessarily get frozen out at a time of your preference that you would want to liquidate.

Options are going to differ from location to location, and surely if you are geographically stable, then you would consider your liquidation options based on that, and if you travel then you might have more difficulties knowing what some of your liquidations might be in different locations.. and even how many hoops that you might have to jump through depending on any specific location at any specific time... I am hoping that second layer solutions, such as lightning is going to help some of these liquidation concerns - even though there is still the ability to hopefully network in any specific location to perform direct transactions, even if there might be a lot of uncertainty with that until you do it and also there will continue to be changes in options based on what people are doing around the world, if you anticipate attempting to use bitcoin while traveling.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
gework said:
If you are looking to buy by card you can buy from Wirex for about 1-1.5% for BTC. Most others charge about 3-4% for card purchases.

The first purchase has a limit for about $100, then $1,000; and $5,000 thereafter.

It looks like it's on a downwards trajectory for the next few weeks to me.
Hi Gework:

I believe that I recall interacting with you about bitcoin in the past (maybe a couple of years ago, or so?), and from my recollection, you seemed to have been somewhat overly negative about bitcoin and overly optimistic about ethereum, which I presume might continue to be your mental framework.. who knows? I suppose that you can disclose whether that has changed in any kind of meaningful way, and yeah if you have been betting bullishly on ethereum in the past couple of years, you would be in a bit of hurt, especially if you are measuring that in terms of bitcoin. If you are measuring in terms of dollars, then maybe NOT as badly.. but still hurt too... even though there has been some recent short term Ethereum pumpenings.. Have you come to see the light about bitcoin yet? or do you still consider ethereum to be some kind of bitcoin equivalent or you are negging on bitcoin because of your ongoing ethereum hopenings that might have been rekindled based on recent ethereum pumpenings? Because if your perspective continues to be messed up from something like ethereum, that should mean that your assessments about bitcoin's price trajectory (even if short term) should be taken with a considerably large grain of salt, no?

In other words, is there much if any credible meaning in your assertion that bitcoin is downwardly trajected, currently? How could you know? What are your chances of being correct? 50/50 at best?

I don't necessarily want to get into any kind of battle with you that takes us too much off of the topic of bitcoin or that involves assessing your ethereum or possibly other shitcoin bags, but sometimes it can be important to understand these kinds of perspectives when any guy is making assessments of bitcoin's price direction, even if we are talking short term assessment. No?

If we are trying to largely stick with bitcoin, then we should be trying to consider where we are at currently in the context of various BTC price prediction models, and even though short term can be a lot more difficult to figure out, even from the most relevant or currently acceptable BTC prediction models, I still would recommend that it is likely NOT going to be good for guys to be attempting to make short term plays in bitcoin waiting or hoping for down, when we are more likely in a bull market and the better practice would likely be to make sure that guys have established a decent stake in bitcoin, such as 1% to 10% before playing around with short term price predictions.

If guys are not aware of a few of the most dominant BTC prediction models such as 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal pattern and/or 3) metcalfe's networking and s-curve exponential growth, then it might be good to be considering those models and to consider that the better practices in bitcoin to establish your initial stake in bitcoin have been dollar cost averaging, buying on dips and HODLing.

So, for example, if some guy is anticipating down from here, then of course, he might want to make sure that he has cash available to buy on dips and just continue to buy on a regular basis that is within his plan. Waiting to buy or betting on down by either selling or shorting can be quite dangerous in a bull market, even if guys could get lucky in regards to betting on down from here.
 

gework

Pelican
Gold Member
puckerman said:
What is this site? Does it have anything to do with cryptocurrency? Can I sell Bitcoin there?
It's an app you can buy/exchange crypto on. They also provide debit cards.

JayJuanGee said:
recollection, you seemed to have been somewhat overly negative about bitcoin and overly optimistic about ethereum,

In other words, is there much if any credible meaning in your assertion that bitcoin is downwardly trajected, currently? How could you know?
I am not really negative on BTC or particularly positive on ETH.

Briefly my reasoning is that BTC (and most other cryptos) are not viable currencies as they cannot maintain a stable price against assets; and it's not possible for an economy to function without stable prices. Crypto prices are almost wholly speculation, based on the idea that someone will pay more for them in the future. The ~$300B crypto market cap is attached to almost no wealth, while the value of the dollar is backed for what other people will accept it for.

I am more interested in ETH, because there is an economy of 1000s of tokens and Dapps running on it, which are starting to be connected to real wealth and transactions. However, in the long term I don't see ETH as viable (without dramatically increasing their transactions per second).

I think that eventually lots of good will come out of the space eventually, but I don't know what that will be, or if the projects even exist at this time. But the projects have to be connected to real wealth, or they have no real value. And at the time they are connected to real wealth there will no be no/few crazy speculative bubbles, which is what crypto has been thus far.

For now my main interest is making money on this bubble and I don't see BTC as being the best bet for that. BTC is about half of its all time high, while ETH is only about 20%.

I sold all my crypto back in December 2017, and bar a mistake purchase which was quickly sold, have been sitting out until 5 January 2020 when I bought back in. I mostly bought ETH, which was about 10% of its all time high at the time and a number of alts like MANA and PRE (up 30X this year). For all of that interval I've been collecting interest on lending out dollars.

I trade very casually on a few signals. One of which is RSI on long-interval candles (3d,1w):



If you sell when RSI hits about 90 and buy when its about 30 you've always done very well.

The short-term down-trend happening is a correction. Maybe down to $8,000 over the next few weeks, at which point I will start buying more, but no BTC.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
gework said:
Briefly my reasoning is that BTC (and most other cryptos) are not viable currencies as they cannot maintain a stable price against assets; and it's not possible for an economy to function without stable prices. Crypto prices are almost wholly speculation, based on the idea that someone will pay more for them in the future.
Exactly. This is the right mindset. Buying crypto-currencies is not investing, it is speculation. Use money on cryptos that you can afford to lose.
 
JayJuanGee said:
gework said:
If you are looking to buy by card you can buy from Wirex for about 1-1.5% for BTC. Most others charge about 3-4% for card purchases.

The first purchase has a limit for about $100, then $1,000; and $5,000 thereafter.

It looks like it's on a downwards trajectory for the next few weeks to me.
Hi Gework:

I believe that I recall interacting with you about bitcoin in the past (maybe a couple of years ago, or so?), and from my recollection, you seemed to have been somewhat overly negative about bitcoin and overly optimistic about ethereum, which I presume might continue to be your mental framework.. who knows? I suppose that you can disclose whether that has changed in any kind of meaningful way, and yeah if you have been betting bullishly on ethereum in the past couple of years, you would be in a bit of hurt, especially if you are measuring that in terms of bitcoin. If you are measuring in terms of dollars, then maybe NOT as badly.. but still hurt too... even though there has been some recent short term Ethereum pumpenings.. Have you come to see the light about bitcoin yet? or do you still consider ethereum to be some kind of bitcoin equivalent or you are negging on bitcoin because of your ongoing ethereum hopenings that might have been rekindled based on recent ethereum pumpenings? Because if your perspective continues to be messed up from something like ethereum, that should mean that your assessments about bitcoin's price trajectory (even if short term) should be taken with a considerably large grain of salt, no?

In other words, is there much if any credible meaning in your assertion that bitcoin is downwardly trajected, currently? How could you know? What are your chances of being correct? 50/50 at best?
I'm curious, are you always this passive aggressive to the people you disagree with? Or does it only apply to people not in the Bitcoin cult?
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
gework said:
JayJuanGee said:
recollection, you seemed to have been somewhat overly negative about bitcoin and overly optimistic about ethereum,

In other words, is there much if any credible meaning in your assertion that bitcoin is downwardly trajected, currently? How could you know?
I am not really negative on BTC or particularly positive on ETH.

Briefly my reasoning is that BTC (and most other cryptos) are not viable currencies as they cannot maintain a stable price against assets; and it's not possible for an economy to function without stable prices.
Probably would be better to keep this discussion to just bitcoin, because we are going to lose our focus if we try to make some kind of broader focus on some vague concept, such as crypto. The only one that really matters is bitcoin in terms of both the topic of this thread, and also in terms of actually meaningfully addressing your seemingly sound money concerns.

Regarding your ideas that bitcoin cannot be a viable currency, you are making all kinds of speculative sub assertions and seemingly wrong assumptions.

1) viable currency -

Currency is just one of bitcoins attributions, and since the world has never really experienced anything exactly like bitcoin, it would be quite difficult to proclaim that it would need to become viable, as a currency, in only 11-12 years - even though bitcoin has foundations in place that it could become world reserve currency, that kine of aspiration would likely evolve after it has a kind of dominance its other network effects, as outlined by trace mayer.

Quote>>>>>>
The Seven Network Effects of Bitcoin: 1. Speculation 2. Merchants 3. Consumers 4. Security 5. Developers 6. Financialization 7. World Reserve Settlement Currency
<<<<<<<

And, in order to be successful, bitcoin does not even need to become a world reserve currency. Bitcoin is already successful in a number of paradigm shifting ways, including the good bad and the ugly of inspiring more than 2,000 copy cats, and various other projects that have been built, are being built, and are changing the world in "cat's out of the bag" kind of ways.

2) stability - volatility

Even though you can add stability into the characteristics of money/currency, it is not a necessary condition and may even be a demonstration of premature thinking to require bitcoin to have such stability while it is still in early stages of adoption (likely less than 1% of the world population has taken any meaningful investment into bitcoin, currently)

The characteristics of money are durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply, and acceptability.

So, yeah, you could add stability/lack of volatility in there as one of the requirements in the long term, but that might be a BIG so fucking what because in the long term we are all dead...

It is like you are imposing world reserve currency status on bitcoin while bitcoin is still in its infancy stage, and even though I believe that bitcoin is designed in such a way that it could become world reserve currency, any such attempt to assess it with such qualities currently is way the fuck premature.

Sure, world reserve currency status could come quickly, and there is a lot of speculation about those kinds of potentialities, including the "gradually and then suddenly" kinds of considerations regarding how a world collapse could take place in terms of something like the dollar losing its world reserve status in such a way that already seems to be happening, and then what currency is there to take its place when all of a sudden there is a lack of confidence? Yeah, gold bugs suggest that they have the answers, but gold has already been greatly manipulated.. and we are going to back to physicality and proof of its authenticity that remains a very difficult proposition, even with modern tools to attempt to authenticate... Bitcoin improves on gold in terms of its scarcity, portability, proof of authenticity, divisibility and even the removal of the need for trusted third parties (which becomes way more optional rather than required with bitcoin, especially when dealing with large amounts - such as millions of dollars of value)

Even though there are all kinds of irresponsibilities going on with the US dollar, including printing into oblivion, and other currencies are doing the same damned thing (if not even worse), so it seems quite presumptive to believe that the dollar or even the various kinds of ongoing irresponsibilities like that might still not be sustainable for another 20 to 30 years. Yeah it could collapse right away... and what is the rescue? gold? Material assets of some sort? Various wars and chaos?

I personally would still put Armageddon-like scenarios at quite low odds of happening, like in the 1% to 3% arena... ... so bitcoin seems to continue to have a place in any likely transition and likely to continue to be seen as a possible safe-haven asset that is NOT quite correlated to other assets, but not really a white knight savior either.


3) economy unable to function with volatility

Are you presuming bitcoin is going to continue to be volatile forever? If bitcoin's price goes up another 100x or 1000x, which is really quite feasible in the next 2-10 years, it still would not become an exclusive asset. Currently, bitcoin is about 1/40th the size of gold, so sure it could catch up to gold in terms of market cap in the next few years, but I doubt that bitcoin would sustainably catch up to gold in the next few years or even if we add another 4 year cycle onto that which would be 6-7 years, and if bitcoin becomes 2x or 3x gold's market cap, then seems to me that it would likely start to become a bit more stable. Right now bitcoin has a lot of lacking in stability due to how small it is relatively speaking and also there continues to be a lot of dispute (disagreement) regarding its value (and therefore reflecting in its price).


4) economy unable to function with (presumptively) bitcoin becoming dominant

Bitcoin does not need to become world reserve currency for it to be successful.

Bitcoin does not need to become exclusive to become successful.

Bitcoin is already successful, and it is likely to continue to operate in various kinds of ways that are parallel to current traditional systems and likely going to continue to cause value to gravitate in its direction because of its soundness of money attributes.

Yeah, some of you guys might not believe that bitcoin has sound money attributes, and bitcoin could give two shits whether you join in or sit on the fence, and yeah, too bad that some people do not really know about bitcoin and there still is only 1% of world adoption, but bitcoin continues to grow and to have more and more building on it, and guys can stay blind to it, and just get left in the dust, because even if bitcoin just maintains its current level of technology, money is going to continue to gravitate into it. Which just seems inevitable that bitcoin is going to continue to go up in value, whether we like it or not and whether we adopt it or not and even whether governments and financial institutions begin to attack it or not (which has already been taking place in a lot of ambiguous and contradictory ways).


gework said:
Crypto prices are almost wholly speculation, based on the idea that someone will pay more for them in the future.
Please, let's try to keep our focus with bitcoin. This crypto concept is way too fucking vague, and does not really mean much of anything if you cannot at least try to focus on king daddy first.

Sure, there are all kinds of copy cats, and sure there remains some symbiosis of capital being injected into the various shitcoins through bitcoin and even affecting the bitcoins price changes, both up and down, but if you cannot keep your eye on what is bitcoin and what are the attributes of bitcoin, you are going to get confused and befuddled with all the various other crypto projects.. that are tangential and distractions.

I am willing to give you the benefit of the doubt and substitute "bitcoin" into your above statement in order to help us to stay focused.

Accordingly, can you accept a revised statement from you as:

gework said:
Crypto Bitcoin prices are almost wholly speculation, based on the idea that someone will pay more for them it in the future.
This is a crazy assertion, gework. You are trying to suggest that bitcoin has no value beyond speculation? You cannot be serious, can you? I used to hear this argument a lot in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and even then, the argument seemed to be a bit bonkers, yet subsequent developments and growth in bitcoin should be proving that it has use cases beyond mere speculation. Of course, almost any asset is going to have some speculation component while it is building its value and even becoming more widely known, and just the ability to move bitcoin anywhere in the world (including its value) without permission should demonstrate a very powerful use case. How much do you want to transfer, presuming that you can get it into bitcoin? $1million? $1billion? Who's going to stop you, especially if you take time to establish such a position? You can even send $500 or $5k? Who's going to stop you? You don't recognize power or utility in that?

Bitcoin can already do this. Has been able to do it for more than 10 years, and of course, the whole bitcoin system and avenues of liquidity is much more developed now than it was 10 years ago.. and even more developed than it was 5 years ago. In fact, there have been systems building upon bitcoin that increase options of liquidity, and storage, and sure some of them have gone away, and sure some of them have been attacked in various ways, but there still is a lot of power in being able to move value without permission. You going to try that with gold? Yeah, you can do some of the same things with gold, but it sometimes can get a bit heavy, and even the physicality can get a bit in the way when trying to move it quickly... Is there a difference in moving value by taking a plane or through the internet within seconds? irreversible confirmation within less than an hour? You don't see any powerful value in that? You believe that current ability is mere speculation? Sure, I could go on and on in terms of listing how that one use case can be used, but I do not need to because you should already be able to think of examples in which it can be used in very powerful ways, currently.

Bitcoin has other use cases, too, that are currently within what can be done involving communication on the blockchain that is not speculative. Go figure. We might not like it, but so many of the shitcoins would not even have a chance for survival if they were not sucking on the teets of bitcoin's security. Yeah, those various shitcoins might be almost only speculative, but they become possible, largely, because bitcoin is in the arena of unstoppable.



gework said:
The ~$300B crypto market cap is attached to almost no wealth, while the value of the dollar is backed for what other people will accept it for.
Again... I am going to read your comment about bitcoin... who gives any shits about those other cryptos that you are wanting to confuse or convolute the topic (whether intentional or not)... ?

So your comment could still likely be valid in criticizing Bitcoin in the event that we could attempt to stay focused. So, currently, bitcoin's market cap is about $175 Billion, as I type (with its price largely bouncing around in the $9,600 to $9,725 range).

Seems strange that you want to make an argument to compare the backing of the dollar to the backing of bitcoin. Do you understand bitcoin? There are the seven network effects, as I mentioned and linked to above, which have real world investors and development, no? There is also computing power that is dedicated to bitcoin that rivals and surpasses (in a kind of giant versus dwarf kind of way) any computing system in the world. Some of that computing power has been designed specifically for bitcoin and some of it could be redirected, but still the hashpower charts show empirical evidence of an ongoing trend that continues to direct computing power towards bitcoin.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?daysAverageString=7&timespan=all

https://coin.dance/#hashrate

You don't believe that there is anything meaningful behind either network effects or computing power?


gework said:
I am more interested in ETH, because there is an economy of 1000s of tokens and Dapps running on it, which are starting to be connected to real wealth and transactions. However, in the long term I don't see ETH as viable (without dramatically increasing their transactions per second).
There is more wrong with ETH than just their lack of transactions per second. Holy fuck. Ethereum is a big ass set of smoke and mirrors, and sure they could smoke and mirror you into believing that they are decentralized by increasing their transactions per second? Are they any different than visa or paypal in that regard?

Yeah, maybe they will get their shit together in terms of creating something that is actually decentralized as they want to proclaim it to be, but they are all over the place with their message about world computer and then trying to be money and then admitting that Ethereum 1.0 does not work and proposing transitioning to Ethereum 2.0 which keeps getting delayed and is like almost a whole new coin.. including their nonsense about proof of stake which has its own ponzi scheme problems and then they are expecting everyone to move over to 2.0.. and still hypothesizing about what that is going to be, exactly, and even if it does come up and running, maybe it is one or two years, just to make sure that it does not have more silly ass smoke and mirror bugs. Maybe it will all work out, and I admit that they have been able to create some interesting projects whether scams or not, and even to build several network effects, but still seems that it could all come crashing down in a large number of ways, not only their baloney about the transactions per second, whether you can believe it or not, and the inability for regular people to actually run nodes and to actually verify what the fuck is real, which could help with claims about decentralization.

Bitcoin already works.. even if it becomes stagnated in its current state, versus pie in the sky baloney proclamations coming out of the ethereum and associated scams shitshows.

gework said:
I think that eventually lots of good will come out of the space eventually, but I don't know what that will be, or if the projects even exist at this time.
Good is already coming out of the space. The space is ongoingly developed and growing, and there are various Lindy effects that contribute to perceptions of value.


gework said:
But the projects have to be connected to real wealth, or they have no real value.
You are sounding blind with this kind of conclusory assertion. I will agree that there is a lot of froth in the crypto space, but if you want to focus on the froth in the crypto space, then you are purposefully creating a strawman...

Let's talk about bitcoin... Is there froth there? We are all likely to see in the coming 1 to 2 years a likely continued increase in bitcoin's price. Sure it is not guaranteed, but there are the BTC price prediction models that I have already mentioned which includes: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal pattern and/or 3) metcalfe's networking and s-curve exponential growth.

Yeah, there is likely to be a battle in the coming 1-2 years for bitcoin naysayers (let's say bearwhales) to attempt to cause such price prediction models to seem to be untrue or to attempt to manipulate bitcoin so much as to cause the price prediction models to become untrue. Maybe they will be successful, and maybe they will not? Of course, you likely realize that there are a decent number of bitcoin HODLers, including yours truly who are giving decent odds that the bitcoin naysayers are not going to be able to cause the BTC price prediction models to become untrue, at least not sufficiently enough in order to have any meaningful negative impact on price... which largely means that bitcoin continues to be a good investment, especially if pursuing a longer time line and dollar cost averaging into it.... and including establishing a 1% to 10% stake into it, for any guys just entering the space.

gework said:
And at the time they are connected to real wealth there will no be no/few crazy speculative bubbles, which is what crypto has been thus far.
I think that I have already addressed this.. and we are talking about bitcoin, right?

gework said:
For now my main interest is making money on this bubble and I don't see BTC as being the best bet for that. BTC is about half of its all time high, while ETH is only about 20%.
No problem with attempting to make some short term plays, if you believe that you can make profits with that.

I certainly am NOT approaching this matter from a short term play perspective, and I will concede that a lot of different things can happen in the short term, and you could be correct that ethereum has more short-term pumpening potential.


gework said:
I sold all my crypto back in December 2017, and bar a mistake purchase which was quickly sold, have been sitting out until 5 January 2020 when I bought back in.
Actually, those would have been decent plays, so I am not going to bash on you if you were able to make money by getting out and in at various strategic times that ended up both working out and sure maybe you had some decent system for that..

gework said:
I mostly bought ETH, which was about 10% of its all time high at the time and a number of alts like MANA and PRE (up 30X this year). For all of that interval I've been collecting interest on lending out dollars.
I will concede that some of that might work both short term and maybe even longer term, you might be able to work it to your advantage, but seems to be getting a bit off of the topic of this thread... that's for sure.

gework said:
I trade very casually on a few signals. One of which is RSI on long-interval candles (3d,1w):



If you sell when RSI hits about 90 and buy when its about 30 you've always done very well.

The short-term down-trend happening is a correction. Maybe down to $8,000 over the next few weeks, at which point I will start buying more, but no BTC.
I am not sure if I understand your chart, but it does not seem to be too topical, anyhow, unless you are talking about BTC.. but you do seem to be using BTC price dynamics as a means to time your investment in other cryptos, which I would not doubt to possibly be profitable, if you can play it correctly and to have safeguards in place, too, in case the market moves against you.

I already mentioned that I don't really have too many ideas about BTC's short term price direction, and I never really have approached bitcoin in that kind of way. So, we have somewhat differing mindsets in that regard.

I largely accumulated BTC in 2014, and started to trade large swings starting in late 2015.. which just means that I sell on the way up and buy on the way down, and my selling is real small amounts, so that I am just largely constantly accumulating BTC while shaving off a few profits as the BTC price goes up, and from the charts, we can largely see that bitcoin has been a good long term investment, so far.

I am surely not against guys figuring out ways to profit from trading BTC, but I become a bit hostile towards trying to suggest that trading is going to be as profitable as a strategy that largely strives towards accumulating and holding BTC. So, yeah, guys will differ in their opinions and approaches, and I stand by my ongoing assertions that BTC remains a good long term investment and dollar cost averaging is likely a good strategy to get started in bitcoin and to continue with at least a 4 year time horizon, and a bit longer, such as 10 years is even better... Of course, guys can exit at any time, but I still think that it is good to come in with at least a 4 year time horizon. And, fuck the other coins.. you cannot really have at least a 4 year time horizon with any of the other cryptos, so I agree that you might be able to trade the various other coins on shorter terms and figure out when to get in and out and which coins, but that seems to be outside of the topic of this thread.

By the way, when I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, my tentative timeline was meant to be 2 years minimum, but of course, I continued to study it along the way and considered if I got out in less than 1 year it was short term capital gains, but if I, at least lasted longer than 1 year, then it is long term capital gains. I think that circumstances of how the 2017 bitcoin situation played out, and even subsequent happenings in bitcoin has caused me to have more confidence in bitcoin in terms of now suggesting that it would be good to consider bitcoin with at least a 4 year time horizon, and most of the people that I have gotten to know in bitcoin have largely profited from being involved in at least two hype cycles.,. or maybe 1 and a half hype cycles, yet none of this is guaranteed, but I think that there remains pretty solid evidence that bitcoin is going to continue as a decently strong investment over the coming 4-10 years which causes it to continue to be a good investment for such time line, even if hype cycles might actually go away or become way less exponential... so yeah, the last hype cycle was about 78x from $250 to $19,666, and if we look at this hype cycle likely starting from $4,200, I would not believe it to be anywhere close to that level, but it is not out of the realm that some variation of that could happen again, so there remains good investment potential and upside potential in bitcoin, even though far from guaranteed.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
cubicZ said:
JayJuanGee said:
gework said:
If you are looking to buy by card you can buy from Wirex for about 1-1.5% for BTC. Most others charge about 3-4% for card purchases.

The first purchase has a limit for about $100, then $1,000; and $5,000 thereafter.

It looks like it's on a downwards trajectory for the next few weeks to me.
Hi Gework:

I believe that I recall interacting with you about bitcoin in the past (maybe a couple of years ago, or so?), and from my recollection, you seemed to have been somewhat overly negative about bitcoin and overly optimistic about ethereum, which I presume might continue to be your mental framework.. who knows? I suppose that you can disclose whether that has changed in any kind of meaningful way, and yeah if you have been betting bullishly on ethereum in the past couple of years, you would be in a bit of hurt, especially if you are measuring that in terms of bitcoin. If you are measuring in terms of dollars, then maybe NOT as badly.. but still hurt too... even though there has been some recent short term Ethereum pumpenings.. Have you come to see the light about bitcoin yet? or do you still consider ethereum to be some kind of bitcoin equivalent or you are negging on bitcoin because of your ongoing ethereum hopenings that might have been rekindled based on recent ethereum pumpenings? Because if your perspective continues to be messed up from something like ethereum, that should mean that your assessments about bitcoin's price trajectory (even if short term) should be taken with a considerably large grain of salt, no?

In other words, is there much if any credible meaning in your assertion that bitcoin is downwardly trajected, currently? How could you know? What are your chances of being correct? 50/50 at best?
I'm curious, are you always this passive aggressive to the people you disagree with? Or does it only apply to people not in the Bitcoin cult?
Probably, my approach depends on the topic, and I would not label myself as passive aggressive...so it is kind of hard to work with your parameters here exactly.

I did look back and see that you and I have had a few backs and forth in this thread, so maybe it might be good to get an update from you, too. Have you been doing good with your bitcoin investment, since joining the forum? Maybe you could give some updates about what you have been up to, at least if it is anything related to bitcoin?

I understand that you have not been a member of the forum for six months, but if you had been DCA'ing into BTC for the past 6 months (6 months was the shortest timeframe allowed on the below website), you could be about 20% in the green.. Not bad, right?

See the below website.


https://dcabtc.com?sd=2019-08-22&sda=6_months&f=weekly&d=6_months&ac=20000&c=true
 

Nolimitz

Pigeon
Tail gunner,

I understand where you’re coming from.

“Speculation”...”tulips”...”Ponzi”

These are all things that many skeptical/rational investors think upon delving into bitcoin.

Bitcoin is the hardest form of money to ever exist:
-capped supply
-divisible
-fungible
-uncensorable
-store of value

Yes...price is currently not stable, but that is to be expected for a nascent asset class.

I highly recommend you check out the book “Bitcoin Standard” by Saifedean Ammous.

In a world where central banks are competing to devalue their currencies coupled with negative interest rates, and geopolitical risks...

an uncorrelated asset is huge.

Iran tensions—>BTC holds value
Coronavirus—>BTC holds value
Debt crisis—>BTC holds value

If anything...it is irresponsible for even the most risk averse investor to not allocate 1% of their portfolio to this asset.

It is obvious that crypto has attracted many shady characters....but that shouldn’t prevent people from digging deeper.

This is a revolutionary technology.

Bitcoin has been around for a decade now...and each day that passes the chances of its survival increases.

Do not gloss over this as a ponzi, “greater fools” fad. This is far more than that.

Can it fail...YES.

Can it succeed...YES.

Prepare for both scenarios. Good luck.
 
I agree with a nice post above by Nolimitz.

In a scenario where it is not only easily transferable but also international, a spinoff of it not becoming a major currency in itself is the recognition that it might be among the best asset classes to provide collateral. I think many people get very simple in the way they think about it, and pigeon hole it to be a functional currency the way others are with fast transactions (credit card or other cryptos or digital currencies that will arise). It likely won't be that, so you must understand that --- which is fine --- it still has a legit role to maintain your and others value, and even appreciate.

I like it moving ahead as a solid asset class, and the play is clearly long term for many reasons, one of which is volatility.
 
You people seem to be splitting hairs over issues that won't have to be addressed for a long time. It doesn't matter how Bitcoin gets categorized after we become old or die. What matters is whether you can profit from it in our current cycle and the answer I think is - yes.

Gework has the correct mindset of getting his regardless of what becomes of Bitcoin. I think betting on ETH is sensible choice barring any technical screw ups the devs might do. Bitcoin will still have to lead the charge by going past 20k first regardless. In that way I think you have to pray for it regardless of what you think of it.

I'm still paying strong attention to BTC especially to what the price will be like 6-12 months after the next halving which is May 12th, last I checked. People in crypto now will make big return but the question is whether you are able to patiently sit on it for the next 2 years. The stock to flow theory you've all heard by now is predicting 100k USD BTC before 2022. I think 50-100k is plausible based on the idea Bitcoin runs in 4 year cycles. How many will be able to sit on their crypto with living expenses and family obligations? Financial hardships come in the most unexpected times.
 
puckerman said:
Where is the best place to buy and sell Bitcoin? I signed up for Coinbase. I don't really like Kraken. I am looking at Binance, CEX, Bittrex, or Local Bitcoins. I am in the United States of America.
puckerman,

Are you doing fiat-to-crypto or crypto-to-crypto?

Avoid Binance. They are a Chinese (HK?) co. and require you to upload hi-res photos of your ID along with your personal info. Info that they can do identity theft with. I have zero trust for them. Coinbase also does this; it is a US co. but I don't trust them either. I also checked out Kraken, CEX, and Bittrex, and passed on all of them.
 
Last I checked all the US based exchanges all report your earnings to IRS automatically if you earn over 10k. I would have recommended Binance but now they have a US-based Binance specifically to cater to Americans. I'm not sure what the best play would be here. Depends how much you plan to put in.
 
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