The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

Earnings is going from crypto to fiat and making a profit. You can go from crypto to a stablecoin that's tied to the US dollar like TUSD or to the Canadian dollar like QCAD to lock in a profit but not be seen as earnings by the gov, I think. Also, if you have an offshore bank account, link another crypto account to it, move your crypto to that account, then convert it to fiat and withdraw to the linked bank account. If that bank account is tied to an offshore entity that's not in your name, then the 'SRI' doesn't need to know.
 

puckerman

Ostrich
You people seem to be splitting hairs over issues that won't have to be addressed for a long time. It doesn't matter how Bitcoin gets categorized after we become old or die. What matters is whether you can profit from it in our current cycle and the answer I think is - yes.

Gework has the correct mindset of getting his regardless of what becomes of Bitcoin. I think betting on ETH is sensible choice barring any technical screw ups the devs might do. Bitcoin will still have to lead the charge by going past 20k first regardless. In that way I think you have to pray for it regardless of what you think of it.

I'm still paying strong attention to BTC especially to what the price will be like 6-12 months after the next halving which is May 12th, last I checked. People in crypto now will make big return but the question is whether you are able to patiently sit on it for the next 2 years. The stock to flow theory you've all heard by now is predicting 100k USD BTC before 2022. I think 50-100k is plausible based on the idea Bitcoin runs in 4 year cycles. How many will be able to sit on their crypto with living expenses and family obligations? Financial hardships come in the most unexpected times.
This is why I am interested in buying and selling Bitcoin. I want to make a good profit. There is no profit without selling the stuff. My plan is to buy Bitcoin with US dollars, and then sell Bitcoin and get back US dollars. My goal is to make money, not hold Bitcoin.
 
puckerman said:
Where is the best place to buy and sell Bitcoin? I signed up for Coinbase. I don't really like Kraken. I am looking at Binance, CEX, Bittrex, or Local Bitcoins. I am in the United States of America.
I like bitquick.co

been doing sales on there for a few years and never been scammed. the customer support is also amazing.
 
JayJuanGee said:
I did look back and see that you and I have had a few backs and forth in this thread, so maybe it might be good to get an update from you, too. Have you been doing good with your bitcoin investment, since joining the forum? Maybe you could give some updates about what you have been up to, at least if it is anything related to bitcoin?

I understand that you have not been a member of the forum for six months, but if you had been DCA'ing into BTC for the past 6 months (6 months was the shortest timeframe allowed on the below website), you could be about 20% in the green.. Not bad, right?

See the below website.


https://dcabtc.com?sd=2019-08-22&sda=6_months&f=weekly&d=6_months&ac=20000&c=true
DCA (Covered Calls)

One of the big knocks on Bitcoin is that you don't earn interest on it. But what if you could?

One of the best ways of buying into an asset is dollar cost averaging (DCA).

Let's combine them both!

Assuming Bitcoin is trading at $10,000 - you call sell a current month covered call option with a strike price of $11k. Let's say the premium you receive by selling the covered call is $500. That is 5% of the principle. You get that monthly.

5% compounded monthly corresponds to a 79% annual return.
4% compounded monthly corresponds to a 60% annual return.
3% compounded monthly corresponds to a 42% annual return.


With the extra income, you can do many things, including DCA into more Bitcoin. One major advantage of this method is that you can DCA with just the income from the covered calls. You don't have to contribute any additional money.

If at option expiration Bitcoin is below $11k, the option expires worthless and you repeat the process for next month.

But what if Bitcoin is above the strike price of $11k on option expiration? The option will get exercised (someone will pay $11k for your Bitcoin since $11k is the strike price), you lose the Bitcoin, you still get to keep the option premium.

Post expiration BTC price: $11.5k you have: $11k + $500 (premium) = $11,500 result: break even
Post expiration BTC price: $12k you have: $11k + $500 (premium) = $11,500 result: net loss = ($12k - $11.5k) = $500
Post expiration BTC price: $13k you have: $11k + $500 (premium) = $11,500 result: net loss = ($13k - $11.5k) = $1500



Using this strategy, eventually Bitcoin will end up above the strike prices of the covered call you sold. That is just the nature of this strategy.

This strategy works best when Bitcoin is trending sideways, or trending down. See: The second half of 2019.

This strategy does not work well when Bitcoin is in a strong uptrend. You simply leave too much on the table. See: January 2020.


Retirement

The limitation of retirement funds such as 401k and IRA is that you generally dip into the principle. Eventually, your entire principle will get drained and your retirement fund reaches 0.

Is it possible for a better strategy with Bitcoin?

Now, let's say you have 10 Bitcoins that are worth $10,000 each ($100,000 total). Each month, you sell a call option on all 10 Bitcoin. 10 * $500 = $5000 in monthly income. Annualized, it is $60k a year. There are a lot of places where you can live comfortably for $60k a year. The important part is that you never dip into your principle. Assuming everything stays the same, you can do this forever.

What if Bitcoin goes from $10k to $20k? In that case, the 5% option premium nets you: 10 * $1000 = $10000 in monthly income. Annualized, it is $120k a year. The question becomes: Where can't you live comfortably for $120k a year?

Due to the higher "interest" generated via covered calls, it is possible to retire with less principle compared to traditional assets. Just be aware of Bitcoin volatility.


Caveats

There are variations to these strategies.

I intentionally used round numbers for illustration purposes.

Depending on the implied volatility of Bitcoin and the strike price chosen, you can get more than 5% or less than 5%.

There is an art as well as science to options trading. Make sure you know what you are doing.

Yes, Bitcoin could crash to $1k. The DCA part still works, but the retirement part obviously does not.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
kel said:
Why would you buy a call due December 2021?
He probably meant January 2022, which are LEAPS (Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities) calls, which provide you the maximum amount of time to have your position pay off. You want to begin looking to sell such calls, or to roll them over, around nine months before they expire, because that is when they lose the most time value.

For example, I have been watching the January 2022 LEAPS calls for OIH, because oil supplies is such a beaten-down sector -- yet so essential to the global economy -- that it may become an asymmetrical trade. This ETF recently hit a triple-bottom and this week's sell off pierced that support level.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
cubicZ said:
JayJuanGee said:
I did look back and see that you and I have had a few backs and forth in this thread, so maybe it might be good to get an update from you, too. Have you been doing good with your bitcoin investment, since joining the forum? Maybe you could give some updates about what you have been up to, at least if it is anything related to bitcoin?

I understand that you have not been a member of the forum for six months, but if you had been DCA'ing into BTC for the past 6 months (6 months was the shortest timeframe allowed on the below website), you could be about 20% in the green.. Not bad, right?

See the below website.


https://dcabtc.com?sd=2019-08-22&sda=6_months&f=weekly&d=6_months&ac=20000&c=true
DCA (Covered Calls)
What does DCA have to do with covered calls? You might need to explain the ambiguity of this juxtaposed idea.

DCA means Dollar cost averaging, and it is not a complicated concept. Dollar cost averaging investing has been explained numerous times in this thread, and batted around in regards to various ways to employ such a strategy in regards to bitcoin.

Who knows what you mean by juxtaposing that concept with "covered calls" unless you are trying to cause confusion, and I would not be surprised about that given this post and given some of your previous posts in this thread.


cubicZ said:
One of the big knocks on Bitcoin is that you don't earn interest on it. But what if you could?
The ability to earn interest on bitcoin and how you do it or various kinds of "interest earning" limitations is not any kind of meaningful knock on bitcoin, and there already are ways to "earn interest" on bitcoin, but surely, it may not be necessary to strive towards "earning interest" in any kind of traditional concepts of the term and end up getting fucked out of your bitcoin by embarking into third-party risks that are not necessary in order to become richie from bitcoin. In other words, there are a lot of likely sound methods to get rich through bitcoin without getting all caught up in bullshit scams that might cause guys to become too greedy for their own good and end up getting their bitcoins taken from them.... lots of that going on.

cubicZ said:
One of the best ways of buying into an asset is dollar cost averaging (DCA).

Let's combine them both!
O.k. maybe you do understand what DCA is.. but there is no need to attempt to get diverted into some kind of bullshit ideas about getting rich faster, when BTC is likely going to get you rich sufficiently fast enough as long as you don't do too many stupid things (gambling too much without taking decent precautions to build your BTC stash).


cubicZ said:
Assuming Bitcoin is trading at $10,000 - you call sell a current month covered call option with a strike price of $11k. Let's say the premium you receive by selling the covered call is $500. That is 5% of the principle. You get that monthly.
Simple accumulation usually does better than overcomplicating matters... and sure, once guys establish a decent stash, then maybe such guys might employ some more sophisticated methods to attempt to multiply earnings. I doubt that it is going to be very productive at all to play around with too much complicated hedging before getting a decent amount of reserves in bitcoin that is just held.. and also to make sure that your stash is already profitable, and then maybe can play with some of the profits, after already profitable, rather than fucking around with the principle before even establishing a decent stash. In other words, first things first, and try NOT to get too fancy, otherwise, you are going to end up losing your BTC when the market moves against you.


cubicZ said:
5% compounded monthly corresponds to a 79% annual return.
4% compounded monthly corresponds to a 60% annual return.
3% compounded monthly corresponds to a 42% annual return.
Yeah right. Does not sound too likely to be getting those kinds of returns on any kind of consistent basis, especially when bitcoin prices tend to do all kinds of surprising things and if you got your money tied up into bullshit stuff, then you are not prepared when the BTC price goes shooting up, which can happen at unexpected times (and has happened on many occasions in the past).

cubicZ said:
With the extra income, you can do many things, including DCA into more Bitcoin.
One of the problems is that you are assuming profits, which frequently does not happen when guys are playing around too much.

The best thing is to DCA first, buy on dips and accumulate up to a point of comfort.. First things first.. and then do not be playing around too much, otherwise going to get fucked.

cubicZ said:
One major advantage of this method is that you can DCA with just the income from the covered calls. You don't have to contribute any additional money.
How could that be working for you, when you have been waiting for $2k BTC prices or you are not in the BTC market because you are waiting for lower that does not happen? I don't see how that can be more profitable than following a more simple practice and stop trying to get rich quick.. but instead practicing a much straight-forward approach that is much more likely to get rich, but to take a bit longer to get rich but with more likely better probabilities in favor of simple accumulation.


cubicZ said:
If at option expiration Bitcoin is below $11k, the option expires worthless and you repeat the process for next month.
Sounds like a great way for exchanges to make money, and for guys to acquire fewer bitcoin, use up whatever bitcoin they have accumulated and to transfer wealth to others.


cubicZ said:
But what if Bitcoin is above the strike price of $11k on option expiration? The option will get exercised (someone will pay $11k for your Bitcoin since $11k is the strike price), you lose the Bitcoin, you still get to keep the option premium.

Post expiration BTC price: $11.5k you have: $11k + $500 (premium) = $11,500 result: break even
Post expiration BTC price: $12k you have: $11k + $500 (premium) = $11,500 result: net loss = ($12k - $11.5k) = $500
Post expiration BTC price: $13k you have: $11k + $500 (premium) = $11,500 result: net loss = ($13k - $11.5k) = $1500



Using this strategy, eventually Bitcoin will end up above the strike prices of the covered call you sold. That is just the nature of this strategy.

This strategy works best when Bitcoin is trending sideways, or trending down. See: The second half of 2019.
At least, you admit this part (bolded above).


cubicZ said:
This strategy does not work well when Bitcoin is in a strong uptrend. You simply leave too much on the table. See: January 2020.
hahahahahahaha At least, you admit this part, too (bolded above).


cubicZ said:
Retirement
The limitation of retirement funds such as 401k and IRA is that you generally dip into the principle. Eventually, your entire principle will get drained and your retirement fund reaches 0.
Perhaps, but a lot of times, the tendency for the fund to be NOT sustainable is if your underlying investments are not performing about the withdrawal rate or that the principle is too small to cover needs.

The general concept is that various retirements should be self-sustaining perpetually if the withdrawal rate is 4% or less per annum, but of course there is a bit of an underlying presumption that the underlying assets are going to be able to appreciate (or be invested) in such a way that averages more than 4% per annum appreciation.


cubicZ said:
Is it possible for a better strategy with Bitcoin?
Seems that BTC has decent odds of averaging price appreciation that is more than 4% per annum, so then part of the question remains whether the principle is large enough to allow for the principle to be enough including the possible volatility, including the extremes of the lows that could happen.

Guys should not be pulling the fuck you lever and going into retirement before making sure that the principle is enough and also considering the BTC price in terms of its most likely extreme dip.

So for example, in late 2017, guys invested into BTC should not have been planning retirement based on $19k BTC prices.,. but instead $3k BTC prices even though for sure, it remains quite difficult to know where the bottom is or where it will be, but just saying in retrospect, we kind of learned what the seemingly likely bottom ended up being from that cycle.. and currently, I would suggest that guys should be considering $5k (rather than $9k) to be our current bottom... and even tentative planning BTC price... even though there are chances that BTC prices could go below $5k.... so currently, if guys believe that they need $2million in principle to retire and to generate enough passive income (which would be about $6,667 per month), then they would need to have at least 200BTC (or the equivalent of 200BTC combined with various other assets).. as a minimum to be somewhat ensured that they are in a position to pull the fuck you lever.



cubicZ said:
Now, let's say you have 10 Bitcoins that are worth $10,000 each ($100,000 total). Each month, you sell a call option on all 10 Bitcoin. 10 * $500 = $5000 in monthly income. Annualized, it is $60k a year. There are a lot of places where you can live comfortably for $60k a year. The important part is that you never dip into your principle. Assuming everything stays the same, you can do this forever.
Like you mentioned earlier, you can do this as long as BTC prices are flat or are trending down... I would rather slowly get up to my target, whether that is $2 million in value or some other safe amount, before fucking around with betting on the BTC price remaining flat or trending down... seems like a fools bet to expect down or flat BTC prices in these times.... Yeah, it could happen, but it might not, also.


cubicZ said:
What if Bitcoin goes from $10k to $20k? In that case, the 5% option premium nets you: 10 * $1000 = $10000 in monthly income. Annualized, it is $120k a year. The question becomes: Where can't you live comfortably for $120k a year?

Yeah, right.,..:angel: you act like there are no costs involved in playing around like this.


cubicZ said:
Due to the higher "interest" generated via covered calls, it is possible to retire with less principle compared to traditional assets. Just be aware of Bitcoin volatility.
One of the (near) inevitabilities of bitcoin is its volatility both upwards and downwards. What if bitcoin goes up to $100k in the next year or two, how's your playing around with covered calls going to play out in that kind of scenario?


cubicZ said:
Caveats

There are variations to these strategies.

I intentionally used round numbers for illustration purposes.

Depending on the implied volatility of Bitcoin and the strike price chosen, you can get more than 5% or less than 5%.

There is an art as well as science to options trading. Make sure you know what you are doing.

Yes, Bitcoin could crash to $1k. The DCA part still works, but the retirement part obviously does not.
Hm? Let's say that $120k per year is enough, then you seem to be suggesting that with your strategy, guys are mostly guaranteed to be able to retire by having 20 BTC to play with currently (double your 10BTC)... Yeah right. Seems way too good to be true for my tastes, but hey, if guys want to get fucked out of their bitcoin, then go ahead and try this strategy or some variation of it.

I am not convinced, but hey, there might be ways to play it without putting your coins too much at risk, .... perhaps, perhaps.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
kel said:
Why would you buy a call due December 2021?
I think that a lot of folks who are into trying to understand bitcoin and the various BTC price prediction models that are the most compelling, currently, are considering the end of 2021 to be a decently-likely time frame for BTC prices to peak in the next exponential cycle, but surely any of these would be ballpark timeline ideas, and options would seem to be a way to hedge such bets.

Of course, options are not the only way to hedge bets as my previous post would suggest and argue, but surely options could be of the ways.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
infinitejest said:
So how's that "store of value" use case working out for ol' bitcoin?
I am a BC skeptic -- at least with regards to its usefulness as a store of value, but what is now happening with BC and gold (down about $65 today, right now) is entirely normal during the start of a financial crisis as investors deleverage and scurry to cover positions. I mentioned this phenomenon a few weeks ago:

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-60358-post-2063078.html?highlight=gold#pid2063078
 

Stats

Robin
Looks like a good time to buy. I see this virus panic ultimately being used to for the final push to get rid of cash and usher in era of fully traceable digital currency. A agenda that started Nixon and first steps to get off the gold standard. BTC will be one of the currencies used in addition to a bunch of federal reserve backed ones and maybe one or two ult coins will survive. BTC will always have some value no matter how useless it becomes. it was the first. the mother of a new era. just like rare old paintings it will always have value for that.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Tail Gunner said:
infinitejest said:
So how's that "store of value" use case working out for ol' bitcoin?
I am a BC skeptic -- at least with regards to its usefulness as a store of value, but what is now happening with BC and gold (down about $65 today, right now) is entirely normal during the start of a financial crisis as investors deleverage and scurry to cover positions. I mentioned this phenomenon a few weeks ago:

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-60358-post-2063078.html?highlight=gold#pid2063078
Surely, your overall point stands, Tail Gunner.

Guys need to be careful in their attempts to read too much into short term situations and seemingly panic situations - and surely we will see in the coming months (and might even take a year or longer) regarding if correlation (or lack thereof) can be an ongoing descriptive dynamic, whether we are referring to bitcoin or to gold or to property or to some other asset class that claims to have some non-correlation.

Furthermore, sometimes there can be some advantage to considering matters in terms of correlation rather than strict store of value because it seems that guys may end up getting themselves too much into a pickle if they do not have at least a certain amount of diversification, which should become more likely to be present for mature investors (meaning guys who have built their investment portfolio rather than referring to age or social intelligence).

Given bitcoin's upcoming halvening, I have my doubts that it is going to take a year or more to actually verify some lacking of correlation dynamics or even to verify the extent to which some of the more currently dominant BTC price prediction models might not be playing out as planned or even that they might be inaccurate (of course, referring to the 1) stock to flow model, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe/networking effects).

Seems that I have mentioned the dynamics of mainstream status quo financial and government institutions that would like to either cause the impression that the BTC price models are NOT true or to actually create circumstances that negate such BTC price prediction models. I have a decent amount of skepticism about their abilities to be successful in such endeavors, and I suppose that is part of the reason that I continue employ BTC accumulation practices, even during seemingly doomy and gloomy times like this. :blush:
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Stats said:
Looks like a good time to buy. I see this virus panic ultimately being used to for the final push to get rid of cash and usher in era of fully traceable digital currency. A agenda that started Nixon and first steps to get off the gold standard. BTC will be one of the currencies used in addition to a bunch of federal reserve backed ones and maybe one or two ult coins will survive. BTC will always have some value no matter how useless it becomes. it was the first. the mother of a new era. just like rare old paintings it will always have value for that.
Yep... exactly, Stats.

Powers that be, rarely allow a good crisis to go to waste in terms of figuring out ways to screw regular people, whether that is to employ more draconian tracking mechanisms (getting rid of physical cash) or to print money to give to their rich friends, which also fucks up the regular people through the cantillon effects.

Yeah, sometimes the economy begins to become so god damned fucked up that in terms of regular people not even having money to spend, so sometimes they might even be forced into attempting to stimulate by giving some kind of helicopter money, especially if people cannot work or have to stay home and shit like that can really have rippling effects in ways that NOT EVEN the powers that be wanted to take place.
 

jeffreyjerpp

Kingfisher
JayJuanGee said:
Stats said:
Looks like a good time to buy. I see this virus panic ultimately being used to for the final push to get rid of cash and usher in era of fully traceable digital currency. A agenda that started Nixon and first steps to get off the gold standard. BTC will be one of the currencies used in addition to a bunch of federal reserve backed ones and maybe one or two ult coins will survive. BTC will always have some value no matter how useless it becomes. it was the first. the mother of a new era. just like rare old paintings it will always have value for that.
Yep... exactly, Stats.

Powers that be, rarely allow a good crisis to go to waste in terms of figuring out ways to screw regular people, whether that is to employ more draconian tracking mechanisms (getting rid of physical cash) or to print money to give to their rich friends, which also fucks up the regular people through the cantillon effects.

Yeah, sometimes the economy begins to become so god damned fucked up that in terms of regular people not even having money to spend, so sometimes they might even be forced into attempting to stimulate by giving some kind of helicopter money, especially if people cannot work or have to stay home and shit like that can really have rippling effects in ways that NOT EVEN the powers that be wanted to take place.
So you think the government will leverage the current crisis in the financial markets to impose Draconian restrictions on money and you want to....buy Bitcoin?

Two different trends are converging at the moment, which are both horrible for BTC:

1) An unprecedented price crash. In addition to falling >40% in one day, BTC is now under it's 200 week moving average, for the first time ever. It has been more than two years without a new all time high, too. For comparison, even with forced liquidations gold is managing to hold it's 50 day moving average (for now).

2) Thanks to COVID19 and the ensuing economic collapse, governments finally have a plausible reason to enact Draconian economic controls on anything they do not like.

They do not like BTC.

We may transition to a system of digital currency, but you can fully expect they'll ban cash, crypto, and anything they can't fully control in the process.

In conclusion, I no longer think it makes sense to invest any non-trivial sum into BTC right now. That could change, of course, but anyone looking at the situation right now should realize it's pretty bleak.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
jeffreyjerpp said:
JayJuanGee said:
Stats said:
Looks like a good time to buy. I see this virus panic ultimately being used to for the final push to get rid of cash and usher in era of fully traceable digital currency. A agenda that started Nixon and first steps to get off the gold standard. BTC will be one of the currencies used in addition to a bunch of federal reserve backed ones and maybe one or two ult coins will survive. BTC will always have some value no matter how useless it becomes. it was the first. the mother of a new era. just like rare old paintings it will always have value for that.
Yep... exactly, Stats.

Powers that be, rarely allow a good crisis to go to waste in terms of figuring out ways to screw regular people, whether that is to employ more draconian tracking mechanisms (getting rid of physical cash) or to print money to give to their rich friends, which also fucks up the regular people through the cantillon effects.

Yeah, sometimes the economy begins to become so god damned fucked up that in terms of regular people not even having money to spend, so sometimes they might even be forced into attempting to stimulate by giving some kind of helicopter money, especially if people cannot work or have to stay home and shit like that can really have rippling effects in ways that NOT EVEN the powers that be wanted to take place.
So you think the government will leverage the current crisis in the financial markets to impose Draconian restrictions on money and you want to....buy Bitcoin?
Bitcoin remains a likely long play and a hedge, and you can hedge at whatever number you want, whether it is 1% to 10% or some other convenient number.

I bought the vast majority of my bitcoin a decently long time ago, and I do not see any real reason to diversify or reallocate out of bitcoin in the current circumstances.

Each person needs to make their own judgement regarding whether to hedge and how much to hedge. Could pay off quite well to hedge if bitcoin is even somewhat non-correlated to some dollar-pegged assets.


jeffreyjerpp said:
Two different trends are converging at the moment, which are both horrible for BTC:

1) An unprecedented price crash. In addition to falling >40% in one day, BTC is now under it's 200 week moving average, for the first time ever.
So this has not happened before in BTC?

Yeah, each situation plays out a bit differently, but I doubt that this situation is really that much different from previous price moves, even though the surrounding circumstances are different and the amount of the drops are different.... but what would you expect with both a decently small liquidity asset and also desires by various status quo institutions to try to manipulate the price down to the extent that they are able to accomplish such.


jeffreyjerpp said:
It has been more than two years without a new all time high, too.
You are exaggerating. I recall being in bitcoin in 2014, 15 and 16 and the new ATH did not come until early 2017.. the last one was late 2013.. that is more than two years.

Furthermore BTC's price performance was kind of ahead of schedule this time around in terms of the stock to flow model and also the 4-year fractal which provided some ammunition (or space) for correction that would still NOT end up being as bad as you are making out the correction to be.

You sound like a no coiner who is just making shit up, no?


jeffreyjerpp said:
For comparison, even with forced liquidations gold is managing to hold it's 50 day moving average (for now).
Who gives any ratt's asses about gold? Gold is more mature than bitcoin in terms of both how long it has been around and also financial instruments that are available. However, bitcoin is better than gold in terms of a lot of factors including scarcity, portability, divisibility, verifiability and ability to control without third party risk and expenses... .... so in the longer run, it is quite likely that value is going to gravitate from gold into bitcoin, even if it might take a while, because bitcoin remains the sounder (and harder) of monies/assets.

jeffreyjerpp said:
2) Thanks to COVID19 and the ensuing economic collapse, governments finally have a plausible reason to enact Draconian economic controls on anything they do not like.

They do not like BTC.
Sure... does not meant that they are going to be successful. Let's see how it plays out. Hopefully you have some bitcoin to hedge in regards to such situation.


jeffreyjerpp said:
We may transition to a system of digital currency, but you can fully expect they'll ban cash, crypto, and anything they can't fully control in the process.
Bitcoin is different from both crypto and cash, so hopefully you realize that by now, but you seem to be conflating ideas, so I have my doubts about your level of informedness. In other words, jeffrey, you do not seem to be very informed about the matter, so therefore your logic is not really very convincing in terms of your speculations regarding how these matters are likely to play out or even the significance of such battles if they were to take place in ways that you imagine.

jeffreyjerpp said:
In conclusion, I no longer think it makes sense to invest any non-trivial sum into BTC right now.
Don't act like you are changing your assessement jeffrey. You never did believe that it was a good idea to invest in bitcoin. You are likely just an ongoing bitter no coiner who is continuing to attempt to find excuses to remain a no coiner. Good luck with that.

Most guys should consider a 1% to 10% allocation into bitcoin, as a starting point. Of course, they should tailorize their allocation according to various aspects of their own circumstances, and surely if they are more skeptical then they would likely gravitate towards a lower allocation level.

jeffreyjerpp said:
That could change, of course, but anyone looking at the situation right now should realize it's pretty bleak.
BTC has not been performing too well in recent days, but does not signify that bitcoin is currently a bad investment, and in fact, bitcoin might well be a very good investment.

If you might recall (well maybe you specifically don't), in mid 2013, there was a lot of doom and gloom about bitcoin in regards to the arrest of ross ulbright (of silk road) and the BTC price corrected dramatically after such news from $100-ish to around $70, but then in the next few months, it went to $1,163.. so sometimes a market correction does not necessarily keep the BTC price down if it is otherwise ready to move up.. not sure what is going to happen this time, but frequently market corrections in BTC end up being great opportunities to get BTC at cheaper prices than what would have been otherwise easy to obtain.
 
jeffreyjerpp said:
JayJuanGee said:
Stats said:
Looks like a good time to buy. I see this virus panic ultimately being used to for the final push to get rid of cash and usher in era of fully traceable digital currency. A agenda that started Nixon and first steps to get off the gold standard. BTC will be one of the currencies used in addition to a bunch of federal reserve backed ones and maybe one or two ult coins will survive. BTC will always have some value no matter how useless it becomes. it was the first. the mother of a new era. just like rare old paintings it will always have value for that.
Yep... exactly, Stats.

Powers that be, rarely allow a good crisis to go to waste in terms of figuring out ways to screw regular people, whether that is to employ more draconian tracking mechanisms (getting rid of physical cash) or to print money to give to their rich friends, which also fucks up the regular people through the cantillon effects.

Yeah, sometimes the economy begins to become so god damned fucked up that in terms of regular people not even having money to spend, so sometimes they might even be forced into attempting to stimulate by giving some kind of helicopter money, especially if people cannot work or have to stay home and shit like that can really have rippling effects in ways that NOT EVEN the powers that be wanted to take place.
So you think the government will leverage the current crisis in the financial markets to impose Draconian restrictions on money and you want to....buy Bitcoin?

Two different trends are converging at the moment, which are both horrible for BTC:

1) An unprecedented price crash. In addition to falling >40% in one day, BTC is now under it's 200 week moving average, for the first time ever. It has been more than two years without a new all time high, too. For comparison, even with forced liquidations gold is managing to hold it's 50 day moving average (for now).

2) Thanks to COVID19 and the ensuing economic collapse, governments finally have a plausible reason to enact Draconian economic controls on anything they do not like.

They do not like BTC.

We may transition to a system of digital currency, but you can fully expect they'll ban cash, crypto, and anything they can't fully control in the process.

In conclusion, I no longer think it makes sense to invest any non-trivial sum into BTC right now. That could change, of course, but anyone looking at the situation right now should realize it's pretty bleak.
1) it needs to close above 5530 before Monday or the model could break down. It's always stayed above the 200 wma. Your point is valid, it looks pretty bleak.

2) they never liked crypto. Bank runs and capital controls would be good for Bitcoin. You can't take your gold bars with you overseas especially if they get confiscated.
 

M3B

Ostrich
Gold Member
I personally think it's going to head under $3,000 and will retrace pretty much all of the 2017 parabolic market. It'll be a glorious time to start buying also, as I think with the halving coming up, the S2F model and also a potential huge buy-back of a lot of stocks once the virus has been swept under the carpet later on in the year, then we'll see a very big incline in the BTC price with the potential to 50x+ your money.

I also think there will be a clear signal from the market, as well as plenty of time, to buy in.
 
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