The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

gework

Pelican
Gold Member
This is a certain buy, though I'm hoping it will go down and thinking it will test lower a bit. Backing up daily with new buys.

RSI at these levels corresponds to levels of the best buying opportunities: Jan 2015 and Jan 2019.



Tracing the up and down trajectories of the '17 and '19 bubbles. You get the perfect sell point within the tepee (late 2017-early 2018).

Then you have your perfect buy point in the small pyramid at the bottom (Nov 2018-Mar 2019).

The sell point is much harder to pick. I didn't sell the February peak, even though I though BTC was heading to $6,000, because the upside wasn't enough. I am looking for RSI 90 as the sell point.

Same with the S&P:



Picking the entry is easy. Exit is a bit harder as you don't have the trajectory of the downside. But if things are RSI 90 is a good indication.

I expect stocks to bounce, but ultimately crater, maybe 2022.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Of course, never let a good crisis go to waste... does not mean that they are going to be successful in any of the nonsense that they attempt to get through, especially when it comes to long term bitcoin... short term can have all kinds of craziness proposed and even successfully passed, but results might not be so clear or even what is expected.

1) it needs to close above 5530 before Monday or the model could break down. It's always stayed above the 200 wma. Your point is valid, it looks pretty bleak.
When you are referring to model, are you talking about the various dominant BTC price prediction models, such as 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and/or 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking/metcalfe?

You would need a pretty extended period of BTC price correction before those models would be brought into question or challenged.... The models might even end up being tweaked rather than invalidated. For example, the price run from April to June 2019 brought the BTC price way the hell ahead and higher than the model would have suggested, and the correction down to $7,500 or so brought the BTC price more or less in line with the model suggestions, so a wee bit more deviation and even a couple years of underperformance (if it were to happen) should not even suggest that the models would be invalidated, even if such extended correction were to happen, I don't see why tweaking of the model might be the more logical reconceptualization...

sure a lot of folks would like the models to become invalid, but we are quite a long ways from such invalidation based on some wee little corrections, currently..

2) they never liked crypto. Bank runs and capital controls would be good for Bitcoin. You can't take your gold bars with you overseas especially if they get confiscated.
Sure, there are a lot of powers that be, financial institutions and governments that are neither thrilled about bitcoin and are likely trying to figure out various ways to manage its existence.

In any event, Bitcoin foundational systems have already largely been built, and with the passage of time they are likely to continue to show their strength, so long as they are not altered in any significant way, and so far BTC culture has shown reluctance to any kinds of dramatic changes to foundational sound money principles, including censorship resistance and immutability which really empowers individuals in the long run, especially individuals who are able to recognize the power of being able to securely control, manage and transport value in their own timeline. Bitcoin has remained resistant to change, rejection of co-option attempts, and sure some of the regulatory attempts are going to be upcoming and ongoing challenges for figuring out how these matters will play out for bitcoin.

Surely the 2017 failure of segwit2x is pretty solid evidence to show difficulties in coopting bitcoin, but I doubt that regulation attempts will be any kind of death-knell even though there are likely to be some challenges that are based on location and even if individuals get caught up in some draconian measures that might be attempted or pointing them out individually for non-compliance...

Surely, bitcoin seems to have a lot of advantages over some other kinds of property classes, such as gold.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Matt3B said:
I personally think it's going to head under $3,000 and will retrace pretty much all of the 2017 parabolic market. It'll be a glorious time to start buying also, as I think with the halving coming up, the S2F model and also a potential huge buy-back of a lot of stocks once the virus has been swept under the carpet later on in the year, then we'll see a very big incline in the BTC price with the potential to 50x+ your money.

I also think there will be a clear signal from the market, as well as plenty of time, to buy in.
Well, Matt3B, I will grant to you that the odds for sub $3k are much greater than they seemed to have been a week or two ago..

Probably many folks would have called you crazy for any such sub $3k suggestion a couple of weeks ago.

It is still far from clear whether the low of $3,124 from December 2018 is going to be challenged, and of course, whenever there seems to be momentum, there are going to be powerful forces (sometimes referred to as bearwhales) who are going to throw whatever they can at the situation in order to cause cascading price movements and to cause feelings of impending doom.

On the other hand, if you look at the BTC trading volume on the daily candle, or three day or weekly, you will see a BIG ASS increase in trade volume in recent times, but surely, a question remains whether this is a sufficient sign of reversal and whether buy support is going to be overwhelmed further at some point, or if really bear whales are running out of ammunition... Frequently, these kinds of price moves are a product of both amount of movement and time, and surely sometimes there can be a signal that is unambiguously convincing, even though most of the time, the actual unambiguous convincing evidence is a product of looking at the matter after the fact rather than being able to convincingly figure it out while we are in the midst of it...

Hoping or waiting for even lower BTC prices based on current circumstances, may well be a fools errand, even though it surely is possible.. it is surely NOT anywhere near inevitable.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
gework said:
This is a certain buy, though I'm hoping it will go down and thinking it will test lower a bit. Backing up daily with new buys.

RSI at these levels corresponds to levels of the best buying opportunities: Jan 2015 and Jan 2019...................

I surely take TA with a decently large grain of salt, but I appreciate that you could well be correct that our entry (or current buy) point for BTC is fairly strongly convincing, currently.

Maybe some guys are kicking themselves for NOT getting in during the peak of the dip from a few days ago into the lower $4ks or upper $3ks, but it becomes very difficult to feel comfortable buying with such severe correcting, while it is happening in a seemingly unending way, and currently some credit (or blame) for the outrageousness of last thursday's extreme dip is going to bitmex, and they did shut down trading for a short period of time that ended up being towards the peak of the dip... ... even though I have my doubts about the extent to which any particular exchange or set of exchanges can be manipulated to bring BTC prices to zero, surely such extreme circumstances (including sometimes lacking liquidity during extreme price moves like that) could cause outrageous levels of cascading prices and a few days to recover, including recognition that we are in a buying opportunity point because the outrageousness of the downward movement has already happened.

So, we will see, we will see, if there is more down or if more down can even be sustained without buy support being too great in order to get the BTC price to go down much if at all further than it is currently.... I don't doubt that there are going to be attempts to take advantage of some of the down price and to create more down BTC price movement, if at all possible, and so a BIG question remains about the extent to which such ongoing down movement is realistic.
 
The price has historically always bounced off the 200 weekly moving average. This week it broke through. For people that do TA this was not expected.

Right now all assets are being sold off and similar to gold the price of Bitcoin was predicted to go down alongside it. The question is whether the cashed up speculators will buy it up. You can only buy so much food water and toilet paper. Despite the technicals I'm expecting the price to recover after the halfening and all the QE helicopter money that will eventually circulate back into the stock market that will be bailed out with public money. A lot of boomers were all in the stock market and the government will do it's best to make them whole. This is just a feeling but I think the Fed is going to get carried away with the amount of QE this time around and crypto will do well. I'm just not sure about the timeline anymore. I knew a recession was in the cards but this Covid19 thing has a high probability of putting us into a multi-year depression.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
The price has historically always bounced off the 200 weekly moving average. This week it broke through. For people that do TA this was not expected.

Right now all assets are being sold off and similar to gold the price of Bitcoin was predicted to go down alongside it. The question is whether the cashed up speculators will buy it up. You can only buy so much food water and toilet paper. Despite the technicals I'm expecting the price to recover after the halfening and all the QE helicopter money that will eventually circulate back into the stock market that will be bailed out with public money. A lot of boomers were all in the stock market and the government will do it's best to make them whole. This is just a feeling but I think the Fed is going to get carried away with the amount of QE this time around and crypto will do well. I'm just not sure about the timeline anymore. I knew a recession was in the cards but this Covid19 thing has a high probability of putting us into a multi-year depression.
Surely interesting the extent to which any guys might be taking any kinds of drastic measures in regards to their portfolios that presumably contain a variety of investments to attempt to prepare themselves for any of this.

A lot of people do not tend to dick around a lot with their investments, to the extent that they have any, but these kinds of market moves sometimes could even cause the most passive of investors to rethink their strategies and even to do the wrong thing.

I doubt that the powers that be politicians have any kinds of concerns for boomers or anyone else who might be taking a hit because solutions tend to be generally aimed at bailing out BIG money at the expense of individuals, whether boomers or otherwise.... but yeah, sometimes bailouts that might be spread further across systems (not sure about the wiseness of helicopter money, even though in an "emergency" almost any kinds of drastic measures might be considered and taken if deemed possibly effective) end up bringing back some confidence, and NY Gov Cuomo proposed that the Corp of engineers should get in the business of building emergency hospitals, which seems almost too leftie to be palatable, yet in "emergency" situations a variety of measures might end up springing up and effecting the economical landscape for years thereafter, including changing precedent.

Personally, even though bitcoin certainly is likely to be affected in the short term, I doubt that bitcoin gives too many fucks about any of this in the longer term, and likely remains a good place for the ongoing injection of value... even while in the short term, we have been witnessing very interesting bitcoin price action that seemed to have corrected way more than some of the traditional systems and then did not correct as much, which remains a question about the extent to which bitcoin's correction is going to correlate with future overall market directions, and the seemingly slight rebound of traditional markets today (and too early to determine how the rest of the week is going to play out).
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
redbeard said:
Adding here.
Perhaps you are just teasing?

Haven't heard from you for a while redbeard. Hopefully, your hand has remained strong through recent times, and perhaps you have been able to acquire more BTC through the ups and downs....

Surely, the whole BTC price dynamics can remain tricky and uncertain, including seemingly system-wide meltdowns that even cause the questioning of maintaining allocations in seemingly more risky and volatile assets, like bitcoin.
 
Normally would be buying all-in right now with but it seems like have interesting times ahead of us and it would be prudent to be liquid with cash. Just DCA'ing with less than 1500 AUD per month.

Recently, I've been watching this ex-Goldman hedge fund manager called Raoul Pal. When it comes to projections he seems to be the smartest guy I've come across in a long time. In February he said BTC is reaching it's former ATH within 12 to 18 months. He accurately predicted oil falling below $30 and the recession/depression. He's primarily invested in bonds, gold and Bitcoin and he said the latter will have the best return. Worth watching:

 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
JayJuanGee said:
redbeard said:
Adding here.
Perhaps you are just teasing?

Haven't heard from you for a while redbeard. Hopefully, your hand has remained strong through recent times, and perhaps you have been able to acquire more BTC through the ups and downs....

Surely, the whole BTC price dynamics can remain tricky and uncertain, including seemingly system-wide meltdowns that even cause the questioning of maintaining allocations in seemingly more risky and volatile assets, like bitcoin.
Not teasing, love me some four digit Bitcoin.

Still holding. Been busy as heck but adding to my stack. Only buying enough BTC that I'm comfortable holding for life.

BTC volatility is wild, but I'm a 2018 bear market veteran. Hard to make me flinch.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Normally would be buying all-in right now with but it seems like have interesting times ahead of us and it would be prudent to be liquid with cash. Just DCA'ing with less than 1500 AUD per month.

Recently, I've been watching this ex-Goldman hedge fund manager called Raoul Pal. When it comes to projections he seems to be the smartest guy I've come across in a long time. In February he said BTC is reaching it's former ATH within 12 to 18 months. He accurately predicted oil falling below $30 and the recession/depression. He's primarily invested in bonds, gold and Bitcoin and he said the latter will have the best return. Worth watching:

Seems crazy to be describing certain people as having a kind of guru status; when it both seems that there are a lot of smart people out there, but none of them know where the markets are going with any kind of precision, just the assignment of probabilities.... and some folks get the probabilities a lot closer than others, whether we are talking about short term swings or longer term inclinations.

Personally, I bit the bullet, recently too in terms of tweaking my incremental buy/sell orders in order to cause for some feelings of greater liquidity.. not BIG tweaks, but just enough for me to feel a wee bit more comfortable overall, and especially preparing for any further and outrageous downward BTC price moves, in the event that they happen.

Since about May 2019, I had considered that the longer correction had finished and BTC had return to the bull cycle.. Of course, returning to the bull cycle would not indicate that BTC was not going to have a variety of potentially long and even deep corrections that were ambiguous in terms of their resolution, but at the same time, since I continue to attempt to play bitcoin in terms of the longer plays, I had considered any kind of price moves since May 2019 to error considerably on the side of stacking sats and stacking my profits in BTC.

When we had our correction down to $3,850, I was only slightly more prepared for that than I was in November 2018 when the BTC price got cut nearly in half with its drop from lower $6ks to lower $3ks within a matter of weeks. So, this time around, I had a wee bit more dollars available when we got down to $3,850 to be able to take advantage of lower corrections if they were to happen... even though I was surely expecting that odds were starting to stack against sub $5k prices, even though such sub $5k prices ended up happening anyhow.

Whether the BTC price bottom is really "in" this time at $3,850, is still difficult to know, and of course, any guy who has been in BTC for a decently long period of time, should be in a bit of a better position in regards to knowing where he stands in regards to his bitcoin allocation, relative to other asset classes. While, at the same time, severe macro corrections, do appear to have a decent tendency to strike fear into what had seemed to be even the more staunch of BTC HODLers... and surely, a little bit of short term BTC recovery that had appeared to decouple from traditional markets likely brings some confidence to the longer term BTC hodlers... including some decent confidence that even with our recent extreme dippening to $3,850, that might be explained partly by the extreme market plays on Bitmex creating overly short term dragging on BTC prices in the short term (and surely arbitrage opportunities), BTC prices have not even really deviated too much from currently persuasive BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking/metcalfe principles.
 

Stats

Robin
SO heard a rummer that a lot of exchanges over sold btc, as in sold derivites while not actually having enough actual coins, and that this will cause a short term crash in the next couple days. any one have any insight on this? now would be a good time to move coins OFF exchanges into your own wallets.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Stats said:
SO heard a rummer that a lot of exchanges over sold btc, as in sold derivites while not actually having enough actual coins, and that this will cause a short term crash in the next couple days. any one have any insight on this? now would be a good time to move coins OFF exchanges into your own wallets.
You should be providing better evidence than that, Stats, rather than just pure baseless speculation.

You might want to start with looking into the Bitmex contribution to the March 12th BTC price crash. Or maybe you would like to look into how much Tether is printed?

There are a lot of baseless and meaningless theories out there in regards to fractional reserve systems on bitcoin exchanges, so probably if you were a bit more specific, Stats, then at least we might get some better ideas regarding whether our current situation in bitcoin, regarding fractional reserve issues, is different or worse now than it was a few weeks ago.

Surely, there would be a lot of reasons to cause fear in the BTC markets because it seems that BTC might be breaking away from any short term correlation that it was accused of having to traditional markets and/or gold (not that those purported correlation claims should have been very persuasive, anyhow).

Almost always, there has been suggestions for guys to NOT to keep too many coins on exchanges, but part of price discovery is to trade coins, and sometimes money (or hedging of bets) can be made exchanging coins on exchanges.

Do you have anything more specific, Stats? What are you doing with your BTC? Did you sell them all at $4k-ish? To the extent you had any?
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Stats said:
SO heard a rummer that a lot of exchanges over sold btc, as in sold derivites while not actually having enough actual coins, and that this will cause a short term crash in the next couple days. any one have any insight on this? now would be a good time to move coins OFF exchanges into your own wallets.
This is why I've stopped following the "crypto news" and subsequently posting in the BTC thread. It's not that I'm a hater, there's just wayyyyyy too much noise in this space. 99.9% of it is irrelevant, unproven, or just plain ignorant.

Once you reach enlightenment that Bitcoin is the only coin that matters, there's not much reason to pay attention. Just DCA and chill.
 

Stats

Robin
JayJuanGee said:
Stats said:
Do you have anything more specific, Stats? What are you doing with your BTC? Did you sell them all at $4k-ish? To the extent you had any?
No and I believe these rummers to most likely be false at this point. I did move the fractions of btc I had on exchages to personal wallet. My plan is to slightly increase my btc hodl with some of the money i pulled out of the stock market today.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Stats said:
JayJuanGee said:
Stats said:
Do you have anything more specific, Stats? What are you doing with your BTC? Did you sell them all at $4k-ish? To the extent you had any?
No and I believe these rummers to most likely be false at this point. I did move the fractions of btc I had on exchages to personal wallet. My plan is to slightly increase my btc hodl with some of the money i pulled out of the stock market today.
O.k. Fair enough.

There is no kind of sure way to figure out a balance of allocations in these kinds of matters in terms of how much to allocate to each of the asset classes of your chosen investments, and surely your level of calm or panic might involve the extent to which you might have been over-allocated in one asset or another prior to the "crash" of last week.

As you likely realize there have been all kinds of theories out there regarding whether BTC is correlated to traditional asset classes based on short term price moves, and for me, that evidence had been opportunistically argued at best and really does not seem to play out too well if we attempt to look at longer time horizons.

Of course, there are all kinds of questions regarding how sustainable our little equities bounce of the past few days is going to last.. and then of course, we have some other additional dynamics in bitcoin that are playing out, both in terms of the halvening that is coming in about a month and a half and a kind of unexpected precipitous drop in the BTC hashrate, that may or may not last, but difficulty does adjust every two weeks, too in order to hopefully compensate for short-term hashrate changes.
 

Freebird Flying

Woodpecker
redbeard said:
Stats said:
Once you reach enlightenment that Bitcoin is the only coin that matters, there's not much reason to pay attention. Just DCA and chill.
Is the enlightenment about BTC being the only coin that matters, because it's on a bull run?

What about Ethereum?

I thought I would buy Ethereum because it's around 85% off the high but BTC is only around 66% off.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Freebird Flying said:
redbeard said:
Stats said:
Once you reach enlightenment that Bitcoin is the only coin that matters, there's not much reason to pay attention. Just DCA and chill.
Is the enlightenment about BTC being the only coin that matters, because it's on a bull run?

What about Ethereum?
Put simply Bitcoin is king because:

1. "Immaculate Conception" i.e. Satoshi Nakamoto
2. Highest, widespread liquidity
3. Simplest, oldest code
4. Most hashrate
5. Best branding
6. First mover advantage

This is irrespective of price. No altcoin will ever reach BTC's dominance due to the reasons above.

I thought I would buy Ethereum because it's around 85% off the high but BTC is only around 66% off.
This is akin to "I thought I would buy Silver because it's around 85% off the high but gold is only around 66% off." Is % drawdown indicative of future returns? No way.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Freebird Flying said:
redbeard said:
Stats said:
Once you reach enlightenment that Bitcoin is the only coin that matters, there's not much reason to pay attention. Just DCA and chill.
Is the enlightenment about BTC being the only coin that matters, because it's on a bull run?

What about Ethereum?

I thought I would buy Ethereum because it's around 85% off the high but BTC is only around 66% off.
Seems to me that you are getting off the topic of this thread when you are wanting to tout the purported advantages of ethereum in this thread. Probably the extent that you want to dive into possible benefits of investing into ethereum, whether short term or long term, you should take that to another thread or create another thread.

There have likely been multiple times in this thread in which several guys have provided overview reasons why bitcoin is a superior investment, especially if you are either talking about long term and/or being able to go to sleep (or go into a coma for 5-10 years and feel comfortable when you come out of the coma you have decent chances that your investment would still be good).

Many of the shitcoins, whether we are referring to ethereum or the more than 2,000 other shitcoins out there (a decent number of those 2,000 other coins are built on ethereum), are largely just sucking off the teet of bitcoin. So, for example, bitcoin provides an overall protocol level of security and infrastructure that makes it difficult to attack or to change in any kind of way, whether we are talking about changes to the rules of how it is created or operates or individual transactions, and sure bitcoin is risky by itself because it could get attacked by the state or my financial institutions, and since the various other shitcoins depend upon the ongoing security of bitcoin, they are risk upon risk.

You already have a risky asset like bitcoin, and then you add another level of risk by getting involved with some other shitcoin that largely just correlates to the success of bitcoin. Yeah, of course, there may be some short term pumpenings of those other projects, as you seem to be suggesting is your investment thesis for ethereum, and you might be able to time it correctly in the short term to make a profit, as long as something with the smoke and mirrors, that is ethereum does not get fucked up along the way, you could make a killing, in the short term, but that still does not mean that it is a good idea to devolve into that kind of topic in this thread... because this is NOT the how do I get rich thread, it is supposed be somehow related to bitcoin topics, and how does a guy invest or allocate bitcoin into his investment portfolio (or not) and various information related to bitcoin to help better understand bitcoin.

There is all kinds of discussions of various bitcoin killers out there, including coming from the ethereum camp, and over the years, some guys, including redbeard apparently, have come to conclude that a lot of those better than bitcoin proponents, or otherwise bitcoin naysayers or bitcoin bashers, are attempting to suggest that there is something deficient with bitcoin, but in the end, if you are talking about the bitcoin fundamentals, including seeing the ongoing building of the various network effects on a protocol layer like bitcoin, you would likely realize that for any coin to really have any kind of meaningful possibility for success, they cannot just do one or things supposedly better than bitcoin, they would likely need to be 10x or more better than bitcoin overall in order to be anywhere close to being able to meaningfully take over kingdaddy.

So, surely, you can get distracted by various pump and dump nonsense of a lot of the shitcoins, and pray for another altcoin season, like that was seen in 2017, and maybe it will happen or maybe it will not, yet bitcoin remains a more solid long term investment... because it is the base upon which the various shitcoins are even able to have their various temporary pumps and play their smoke and mirror "better than bitcoin" propagandas.

By the way, you might be able to time some kind of in and out for various shitcoins, and I recall in 2017, there were lots of folks investing into a variety of shitcoins, and hardly allocating anything into bitcoin, and it is quite likely that at some point they should have gotten out of the various shitcoins and bitcoin continues to have decently strong investment theses related to both holding its value and even ongoing upwards potential through price prediction models such as: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles.

By the way, good luck with your figuring out what the fuck ethereum is, exactly, and the supposed transition from 1.0 to 2.0, and sure maybe you will get lucky in terms of that whole transitioning being accompanied by ongoing ethereum pumpenings rather than fragmentation and mere additional risk that may not pay off... and with that, you might want to limit some of your exposure while keeping a larger portion in bitcoin, even though you are trying to frame ethereum as if it were somehow similar to bitcoin, when bitcoin already has a functioning system that does not need to change for it to continue to function, and ethereum has been touting their stupid ass smoke and mirrors complicated and shifting narrative transition ever since it got started as a scam project in 2014/15-ish.



Edit:

Redbeard said it much better than me.... and more succinctly and nicer too. :blush:
 
Bitcoin isn’t a long-term investment because it’s not an investment at all. Its price is based on nothing beyond what others are willing to pay for it, and as such, is not worth anything inherently the way that a stock in a company is. I wish I’d listened to Warren Buffett about this years ago instead of getting caught up in the hype.
 
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