The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
MichaelWitcoff said:
Bitcoin isn’t a long-term investment because it’s not an investment at all. Its price is based on nothing beyond what others are willing to pay for it, and as such, is not worth anything inherently the way that a stock in a company is. I wish I’d listened to Warren Buffett about this years ago instead of getting caught up in the hype.
"Price is What You Pay. Value is What You Get." Warren Buffet.
 

Freebird Flying

Woodpecker
The people who love bitcoin the most are the ones who got in cheap or who are trading it. For a casual person, it's quite risky to bother with. Would I want my Mom or family member in? No way!

I doubt they will keep buying it after it goes up to 20K, that's where the suckers come in and get burned again (in theory). I can't see buying it ever if it's over 10K for a BTC. At the current price I see some value if I can get someone to come in later and pay more for it so I can put the money to actual use.

I've even made a couple of sizable errors dealing with BTC, lost a couple of them. There are hackers out there and such, which for a technical person is fine, but for your casual person, not good.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
MichaelWitcoff said:
Bitcoin isn’t a long-term investment because it’s not an investment at all. Its price is based on nothing beyond what others are willing to pay for it, and as such, is not worth anything inherently the way that a stock in a company is. I wish I’d listened to Warren Buffett about this years ago instead of getting caught up in the hype.
Sounds as if you are limiting yourself in terms of your own perspective.

If you manage your own investments, you can allocate them in any portion of your portfolio as you wish, and you can choose any timeline that you believe is suitable to your circumstances.

In the event that you reconsider the allocation or the timeframe, then you can tweak your investments to your own choosing.

The fact that you choose to consider bitcoin as NOT being an investment seems to be a product of your own lacking in perspective.

Initially, in late 2013, when I got into bitcoin, I had considered my investment was going to be at least one year, and I set a budget for myself to invest for 6 months, and to reassess at the end of the first 6 months, which brought me to about May or June 2014. In about May 2014, I extended my investment timeframe and budget for another 6 months, which brought me to the end of 2014, and at that point, I decided that I had reached my allocation goal and to merely dollar cost average in a way that largely maintained my determined allocation.

There have been a few times that i had tweaked my BTC investment plan, and of course, I have the authority to manage my own BTC portfolio and other aspects of my investment portfolio, including deciding whether to add or subtract from my position or to change any other allocation proportions of the bitcoin part as compared with other assets and currencies that I own (or control).

There can be a lot of questions in respect to how to value any investment that you make, including whether you have accurate and/or adequate information about the investment that you are making or if you believe that you have tailored your approach in a way that is suitable to a variety of your own circumstances, including your cash flow, your other investments, your risk tolerance, your view of bitcoin versus your other investments, your timeline and your skills, time and abilities to research and manage your holdings, including tweaking from time to time, if you deem warranted.

You come off as bitter, MichaelWitcoff, and perhaps overinvested.. maybe you should have listened to warren buffet, if you believe your circumstances are similar to his, including the fact that he is likely not going to be around much longer, so who gives any shits, from his perspective, about whether bitcoin is a good long term investment or not.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Freebird Flying said:
The people who love bitcoin the most are the ones who got in cheap or who are trading it.
You are lumping a lot of people in the same category. Why? Sure, it is easy to complain when BTC prices are down or if you may have had different expectations regarding where the price should be at this point in time. If you had guarantees in mind in regards to where BTC price should be at this particular time, and there happens to be under performance, then that might be more of a reflection on you rather than saying anything material and meaningful about bitcoin.



Freebird Flying said:
For a casual person, it's quite risky to bother with. Would I want my Mom or family member in? No way!
Sure, bitcoin is risky. It is a paradigm shifting asset class, and likely because it is so different, it remains a likely investment opportunity of a lifetime, if you figure out how to play it to your advantage. Again, of course, nothing is guaranteed.

As I have repeated on a large number of occasions in this thread, my recommendation has been for guys to tailor their investment into BTC to their own situation, and to consider a 1% to 10% allocation as a starting point. That is 1% to 10% of the value of their quasi-liquid investment assets.

Of course, any guy who would be more conservative in his views of bitcoin or even in his risk tolerance, should choose at the lower end of the range, and of course, every guy is responsible for his own choices, in this direction and might choose to either invest lower than 1% or not to invest, but seems to me that a 1% investment can be quite tolerable and there should be meaningful ways to offset some of the risk when it is only that proportion of a guys total quasi-liquid investment assets.

So, it should not matter if you are a mom, a relative, or some other possible novice; however, surely some aspects of bitcoin do require more learning, yet there are a decent number of people who invest into bitcoin and just maintain their investment with a third party such as keeping their BTC on coinbase, which has its own disadvantages, but if you are investing on a long enough timeline, such as longer than 4 years, but maybe even 10 years or more, then you can learn along the way.

If we are talking about grandma (or even someone like warren buffet), then BTC might not be a good investment for them, both in terms of timeline, but also that they might not be willing to learn about how to hold their own private keys.



Freebird Flying said:
I doubt they will keep buying it after it goes up to 20K, that's where the suckers come in and get burned again (in theory).
People said a very similar thing in 2015/2016. I was around during that time, and I was participating, and when prices were stuck in the mid $200s for most of 2015, and also got stuck below $500 for the first half of 2016, I saw all kinds of discussions of the HODLers that would be selling their bitcoin in the sub $1k and even supra $1k price territory, because their little minds could not imagine BTC prices going past the previous ATH in late 2013 of $1,163. So, yeah, we had three years of people waiting for a new ATH, and were convinced that everyone would be selling their BTC.

There were a sufficient number of people, including yours truly, who were suggesting that it would not be a good idea to sell your BTC in that old ATH price range because it was a kind of no man's land, and in the end, you can look for yourself and see that we did not stick around those circa-$1k prices for very long, when we went above them in early 2017 and then revisited them in March 2017, and then ended up leaving those $1k prices behind forever, and only to be talked about revisiting them over and over and over between 2017 and present, and the closest that we have gotten, so far is in the lower $3ks, and even that did not last for very long.

So, yeah, maybe we will visit $3ks again. I am not saying that we will not, but it is far from guaranteed. We frequently see a lot of negativism, bitcoin bashing and bullshit spreading about bitcoin being broken or inadequate in one way or another, but it seems quite likely that those naysaying talking points and negativism about bitcoin are likely going to play out in similar ways as they have in previous times, with a lot of people failing/refusing to invest enough and waiting/hoping for lower BTC prices that never end up materializing.


Freebird Flying said:
I can't see buying it ever if it's over 10K for a BTC.
There are likely going to be plenty of people buying above $10k and including plenty of people buying all the way up to $50k or $100k or whatever price BTC ends up going (again, no guarantees, but surely seems that it is within reasonable possibilities). So, it is up to you, regarding your investment strategy in connection with BTC, to the extent that you have any.


Freebird Flying said:
At the current price I see some value if I can get someone to come in later and pay more for it so I can put the money to actual use.
Well, at least you are willing to concede some aspects of possible upwards BTC price movements from our current price.

Of course, you are likely discounting some of the various current BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking/metcalfe principles, but that is your choice if you want to discount or ignore the models or even fail refuse to understand what they are based upon.


Freebird Flying said:
I've even made a couple of sizable errors dealing with BTC, lost a couple of them.
Lot's of people make mistakes, and the longer that you are in, the more you could end up making mistakes. Sometimes it is possible to learn without making mistakes, but sometimes mistakes help to make the learning sink in a bit better.


Freebird Flying said:
There are hackers out there and such, which for a technical person is fine, but for your casual person, not good.
Of course there are a lot of possible attack vectors, including one of the most common forms of hackers is sims card swaps, so every guy who has bitcoin has to be careful to guard his bitcoin accounts and to protect the passwords. Many of those hacking methods are finding vulnerabilities in some of the phone systems, and bitcoin is an attractive target because it is hard to reverse once the hackers get your coins sent... or once they get into one of your accounts, and if they are able to send your coins, then you will lose those coins. Lots of incentives for hackers to be innovative in terms of dealing with bitcoin because of its value and because of its irreversibility once they get it.

Just for clarity of repetition, bitcoin has not been hacked, but account holders do get hacked, and if they do not take adequate safeguards, they could lose all of their coins, which would suck whether it is a small number of coins are a large number of coins, yet of course, the more coins that any guys have the more efforts that should be spent in ensuring that they are secure.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
JayJuanGee said:
Sure, bitcoin is risky. It is a paradigm shifting asset class, and likely because it is so different, it remains a likely investment opportunity of a lifetime, if you figure out how to play it to your advantage. Again, of course, nothing is guaranteed.
Well, there you go. You just admitted that BitCoin is not an investment.

An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation in the future. A speculation is a financial transaction that has a substantial risk of losing all or most of its value, but with the expectation of a significant gain. Notice how the definition for investment does not include the word "risk." Of course, every investment carries some level of risk. But the potential of losing most of the principal investment amount is largely what differentiates investing from speculating. Cryptos are speculative assets due to their relatively short existence in the financial world, an absence of sound regulation, hacking and other technological risks, and the many unknowns surrounding trading patterns.
 

Freebird Flying

Woodpecker
JayJuanGee said:
Freebird Flying said:
The people who love bitcoin the most are the ones who got in cheap or who are trading it.
"You are lumping a lot of people in the same category. Why? "



I think a lot of people who came in later are down quite a bit. That's why I say that. I usually hold my investments for 3 to 5 years so I shouldn't judge the price at this point until we see where it's at after a five year period off the highs.

You may very well be correct. There a lot of talented investors who believe bitcoin will be huge in the future.

I don't mind owning some of it at the current price levels, but if you wan to HODL it, dollar cost average makes some sense to me.

If someone had 50K to invest (or whatever amount you would like to choose), would you suggest to put that in at once, over a one year period, or 3 year period? Or does it depend on the price?

For me, the value of Bitcoin I see it as a store of value, like digital gold.

What would you say is the other values of Bitcoin?

And how would it make sense for someone to buy in at a level as high as 50 thousand dollars and hold that at sometime in the future?

Thanks!
 
You’re talking about Bitcoin as if it’s a real investment-worthy asset, like stocks or real estate, which grow in proportion to the increase in their value. That’s the only time it makes sense to talk about long-term time horizons, to give them time to reach their potential. What is Bitcoin growing into? What does it produce? What causes the price to go up or down?

A. Nothing,
B. Nothing,
C. Speculation and what people think others are willing to pay.

Hence why I don’t consider it a real investment - there is no growth in intrinsic value that could reliably and proportionally cause the price to rise. And it’s clearly a terrible hedge against stock market corrections, which everyone claimed it was going to be. “Invest” if you want but I hope you consider these points.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Tail Gunner said:
JayJuanGee said:
Sure, bitcoin is risky. It is a paradigm shifting asset class, and likely because it is so different, it remains a likely investment opportunity of a lifetime, if you figure out how to play it to your advantage. Again, of course, nothing is guaranteed.
Well, there you go. You just admitted that BitCoin is not an investment.
Again, another person who seems to want to get caught up in semantics.

Did I not already explain why I consider that any guys ways of buying bitcoin can be structured in ways that would be an investment, so the fact that it is a certain kind of investment or that some guys might structure it differently or some guys might speculate on it does not change the overall practice that I am describing which is largely NOT much different from other kinds of investments, whether I invest in gold, or property, or equities, or bonds, or bank interest bearing accounts (foreign currencies), I can choose my level of allocation and the time that I want to be invested, while having personal discretion regarding any of those aspects.



Tail Gunner said:
An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation in the future.

A speculation is a financial transaction that has a substantial risk of losing all or most of its value, but with the expectation of a significant gain.

Notice how the definition for investment does not include the word "risk."
O.k. I will try to play with your definitions. Does it matter? Seems like you are attempting to make a distinction without any kind of meaning and material difference when put into actual practice. Because speculation and investment can be overlying spectrum dynamics in which each asset or currency will have varying kinds of risks, various kinds of possibility for price appreciation or stability and various kinds of expectations to generate income/appreciation. Their risks, price appreciation or income generation potentials may correlate or not with each other, and those assessments are going to vary over time and likely vary from one person to another based on his own personal financial circumstances and may (will likely) change through time.


Tail Gunner said:
Of course, every investment carries some level of risk. But the potential of losing most of the principal investment amount is largely what differentiates investing from speculating.
You can limit yourself in those kinds of conceptual ways if you like. That is your choice, and also seemingly your buddy MichaelWitcoff's choice to make those kinds of conceptualizations or self-imposed/self-restricting limitations.


Tail Gunner said:
Cryptos are speculative assets due to their relatively short existence in the financial world, an absence of sound regulation, hacking and other technological risks, and the many unknowns surrounding trading patterns.
I am going to presume that you are talking about bitcoin, since we are in the bitcoin thread, but you remain both afraid to use the word and you want to talk in generalities... since you don't seem to appreciate the difference between bitcoin and other cryptos.. which I have already addressed.

Anyhow, I am going to presume that you are talking about bitcoin, and yes, bitcoin has a short period of existence, only less than 11.5 years since the release of the white paper, and slightly more than 11 years since it has been mining (or operational) and maybe only slightly less than 10 years since it had some kind of market price, which was very inconsistent in the first couple of years, and maybe we could assert that markets did not really start to mature around bitcoin until 2012 and thereafter and increasing avenues of liquidation and increasing kinds of markets developing thereafter.

Yes, there are also some regulatory uncertainties and also a lot of world variance in regards to bitcoin's regulation, but even regulation uncertainties have come a decently long distance since USA government hearings in late 2013, but still a bit of a fluid situation that contains some risk, of course, but that does not mean that it is not an investment.

For example, there are risks with our current macro environment regarding the value of your money since money printer go brrrrrrr, which causes repercussions across a lot of asset classes in uncertain ways. Any emergent asset class or category is likely to have additional risks that could cause them to be either under valued or over valued, but so fucking what? We have asset classes with different kinds of risks and higher or lower levels of risk, and even the dollar has risks, even though in these current times, the dollar seems to be gaining in strength even while there are plans to print it into infinity, nearly. But, down the road, that infinite printing has uncertainties regarding how it is going to play out in terms of the dollar being able to keep value.

I don't see how we are really getting anywhere with my entertaining these nonsense assertions, and you can choose for yourself if you want to invest in bitcoin or not or speculate or whatever the fuck you want to call it, or you can refrain from investing in it, which seems to be your perspective Tail Gunner.... and maybe is the perspective of MichaelWitcoff, too? I am not sure. Maybe MichaelWitcoff would like to disclose to us if he owns any bitcoin, has any plans to buy bitcoin or plans to short it or otherwise take investment/speculation actions that somehow relate to the topic of this thread?
 
I don’t own Bitcoin and won’t be putting a single penny into cryptocurrency beyond what I did before I knew better. I speculated with crypto and the returns ranged from over 1000% gain to over 90% loss and everywhere in between because at the time I didn’t understand the idea that I wasn’t actually investing, but gambling. Now that I know better I will never speculate or gamble, but invest only in real investment vehicles with underlying measurable value.

In a certain sense, gaining a big profit with crypto is worse than a big loss because it teaches you bad investing habits and you’ll confuse fortunate timing with intelligent investing. I hope that you will think critically about what’s being said here about Bitcoin instead of just getting defensive.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Freebird Flying said:
JayJuanGee said:
Freebird Flying said:
The people who love bitcoin the most are the ones who got in cheap or who are trading it.
"You are lumping a lot of people in the same category. Why? "

I think a lot of people who came in later are down quite a bit. That's why I say that.
Yeah they might be, but you really don't know. I realize that it can be quite frustrating to be in an investment or speculation when it is down.

If you look at some of my other posts in this thread, you would likely notice that I got into bitcoin in late 2013, and the price of my first purchase was $1,200 (through local bitcoins, so there was a bit of a premium at that time). I bought 1.24BTC for $1,500. Anyhow, I continued to dollar cost average buy for much of 2014 even 2015, so towards the end of 2014, my average cost per BTC was $550, but the price for much of 2015 was in the mid $200s, and even though I continued to DCA through 2015, my average price per BTC only dropped to around $500 and maybe it was below $500 for a period of time, but point is that I was under water during that whole period, and of course, a lot of people were saying to sell or to cut your loss and various nonsense like that.

Even though we know that there are no guarantees regarding what the BTC price is going to do or what it did do in late 2015 to late 2017, but the BTC price largely did a 78x price appreciation during those two years, and of course, past performance does not guarantee any kind of present or future performance, but we can still identify similarities in price dynamics and even price performance models that help to explain bitcoin's seemingly ongoing 4 year hype cycles and various other market dynamics that help to put the price performance and possible price manipulation into perspective.

By the way, when I say price manipulation, I am not really meaning to describe it as a negative, but just to give some understanding to the kind of dynamics and struggles that can be seen in the way that BTC prices have these tendencies to get shot way the fuck beyond expectations both to the downward and to the upwards, and my thinking is that some of the outrageous upward explosion ends up coming because various bearwhales have manipulated the BTC price down for longer and to lower levels than they are able to sustain, and at some point, they cannot keep the prices down any longer, and it ends up exploding to the upside, even though they do not want the prices to go up, those fucktwats have no choice once the momentum gets going and they cannot stop it or keep it down any longer.

Sure, any of us might assert or argue that the upwards price explosion is not going to happen again or that bitcoin is going to zero or other bitcoin is a bubble or overvalued claims, and sure some people actually believe that and there are some folks who want to shake you out of your coins.. and if you are shook out of your coins, then that is your choice, I suppose... sometimes people regret it because they think that they are going to buy back lower.. think about so many people selling their coins between about $800 and $2,500 and thinking that they were going to buy back lower, but the BTC price still has not gone lower, several years later... so yeah, maybe they will get a chance to buy back at a profit, but I have my doubt. Many of them will end up buying back higher or refusing to buy back and then sometimes becoming bitter about it.


Freebird Flying said:
I usually hold my investments for 3 to 5 years so I shouldn't judge the price at this point until we see where it's at after a five year period off the highs.
Like I said, when I first got in (in 2013), I was thinking about two years, but I thought that if I at least hold for one year then it is long term rather than short term capital gains, but my thinking has evolved on the topic, and I am thinking that bitcoin is way more of a solid investment, so having longer term investment horizons is not a bad thing, even though there still are not any guarantees. I frequently suggest a minimum of 4 years, but who the fuck is going to get rich in four years, so frequently it takes a long time to build an investment portfolio.
So, yeah if you come into bitcoin and you are just reallocating from your other investments, then you may already establish a decent stake that allows you to pull out some or all of your investment in a much shorter period of time.

Many times it is going to take a decent amount of time, even 10 to 20 years to build a decent investment portfolio that you are comfortable with the distribution of assets and that you might feel sufficiently confident to start to withdraw income from them. But of course along the way, you can also engage in periodic reassessment and reallocation some guys will do this annually, but if you are still building, you may or may not feel that you need to reallocate, and also depending on the overall market dynamics and your personal situation, too.


Freebird Flying said:
You may very well be correct. There a lot of talented investors who believe bitcoin will be huge in the future.
Some people are going to be right and some are going to be wrong, and in the end, it is good to figure out for yourself based on your own circumstances and your own views and your own various personal financial factors that I had already mentioned.

You could reasonably take 1% to 10% allocation and then study the space, or you might feel that your own personal circumstances justify some amount outside of that range. In the end, you need to be careful that you do not overinvest, whether it is bitcoin or any other investment, and in that sense, it is good to make sure that you have your cashflow figured out including expenses and even emergency funds because you don't want to be withdrawing BTC at a time that is not of your own choosing, and we see that bear markets can sometimes last several years, even breaking or putting into question the currently dominant BTC price prediction models.

Freebird Flying said:
I don't mind owning some of it at the current price levels, but if you wan to HODL it, dollar cost average makes some sense to me.
If you are nervous, then you might choose to just put $50 a week; however, one of the problems of under investing will sometimes cause guys to end up FOMO buying on the way up, and then they end up investing too much at too high of prices, and then the price dips and they start getting bitter. Ultimately, you have to figure out what works for yourself that the price movements are not going to cause you to become too emotional whether the BTC price moves up or down. Of course my practice is to buy more if the price goes down, but if you run out of money, then you won't be able to buy more until more money comes in... Another concept of DCA is that you don't even look at the price, just buy once a week or once a month or whenever at whatever price without trying to second guess too much, and over time, it will allow you to get a decent stake without straining yourself too much about it.


Freebird Flying said:
If someone had 50K to invest (or whatever amount you would like to choose), would you suggest to put that in at once, over a one year period, or 3 year period? Or does it depend on the price?
If you otherwise have all your shit together and you have already allocated that amount towards BTC investing, I would suggest dividing it into three parts. Invest 1/3 right away. Assign 1/3 to DCA over six months or some other reasonable period and assign the last 1/3 to buying on dips. One thing about your $50k hypothetical would be whether you already have the $50k, and then what are you going to do with your cashflow over the next 6 months or so. Usually when I calculate, I would try to calculate a lump sum amount, and divide that by 3, and then calculate my cashflow and then add the cashflow in a similar kind of way.

Once you have a plan and you tailor the plan to yourself, then of course, you can tweak it and even think it over before you begin to employ it to make sure that you are comfortable with the whole thing, and maybe you will decide that you want to apportion differently, and then you have to figure are you setting up accounts on exchanges to buy and can you set up orders to buy on dips, too.

So for example, if you bought $16,667 right away (that's 1/3) and your price ended up being $6,200, then you might not feel any kind of need to buy at $6,200 again, so you might structure buy orders down to some price that is comfortable for you.. If you want to be prepared for extremes, then you might set up buy orders all the way down to $3k .. so maybe you would could have 16 orders of $1,000 each. Regarding the DCA, you would have an ability to authorize yourself to buy $641 per week for 26 weeks.... so after you put it all on paper, you can consider whether any of that seems reasonable to you... or if some other way of dividing it might seem better, whether you are concerned about front loading a bit, just in case the price does not go that low or the price starts to go up from here...

Part of the problem with our current macro environment is that you really cannot know for sure if there might be BIG crashes of if BTC prices might go shooting up $2k-$4k.. Remember in April 2019,... BTC shot from $4,200 to $13,880 in three months, and then on October 25, 2019, BTC shot from $7,300 to $10,300 in 12 hours... so, your plan should attempt to plan for various contingencies without causing you to get too emotional about either direction.. because once your plan is in place, you should attempt to construct it in a way that the price direction does not cause you to become emotional... the price comes to you, rather than you chasing the price.


Freebird Flying said:
For me, the value of Bitcoin I see it as a store of value, like digital gold.

What would you say is the other values of Bitcoin?
Of course, the storage of value is part of it, but in the short term it is difficult to know. So, yeah, bitcoin can be a hedge against dollar investments and even a not exactly correlated asset. It can also serve as a great means to censorship resistantly transfer value to whoever you want and no one can stop you... whether you are doing that or others are using bitcoin in that way, it remains a powerful feature of bitcoin. So there can be a lot of autonomy in controlling your assets and giving you another option, whether you exercise it or not. So learning how to store and secure your keys can be quite powerful.

Freebird Flying said:
And how would it make sense for someone to buy in at a level as high as 50 thousand dollars and hold that at sometime in the future?

Thanks!
If BTC prices go shooting up to $50k, and you feel that you do not have enough, the you are kind of in a tough situation. If you are fairly young and you have an ongoing income stream, the dollar cost average portion of your investment would just suggest to buy whatever amount that you have allocated to DCA at whatever price, but I understand that you don't really want to be buying at $50k if you have already stocked up at much lower prices.

In late 2014 and even into 2015, I felt that I had invested into bitcoin beyond my allocated amount.. which my goal was 10%, and I went beyond 10%, so in late 2015, I had authorized myself to sell small amounts of BTC as the price went up and to use that money for buying back. The tax consequences currently can make this kind of practice complicated, so you have to decide if you believe that kind of a strategy might work for you or if you might just try to ONLY buy on dips rather than when the price goes up... so there are theories that in this next pump that BTC could pump anywhere between $50k and $350k, and surely any of us are going to be surprised if such numbers were to occur, but it is not a bad thing to prepare yourself for such possibilities, even if you might believe that they do not have very high chances of happening.

In 2015/2016, I have plenty of on the record predictions that I thought that the price bubble was going to take us to somewhere in the $3k to $5k territory, but even though I thought that was going to be the top, I did not sell much of my BTC, and I had already decided that I was only going to sell small amounts and just let my BTC stash ride. So of course, the price rise ended up going 3x to 5x more bullish than my thinking of a kind of best case scenario. I don't know if such craziness is in the cards for this next time around or not, but I still have a plan for myself that goes beyond $50k.... and even if BTC were to go to $500k, I still would have the vast majority of my BTC, even though I have incremental selling all the way up the potential price rise.. that is just me.. and, yeah, I might decide to spontaneously sell a bit extra BTC, but I have already been through 1 earlier price rise, so I have a lot more potential profits, and including having already had been solidly investing in BTC for more than 6 years.

If your investment timeline is NOT as long, then it is a bit harder to prepare for those extremes, but surely not impossible, if you think that maybe at various points you might cash out a bit (in the event that you believe that you are in a reasonable position to do that). There is a guy who had theorized that every time that your BTC goes up 100%, you should take 10% profits, and I don't really know if that is a good idea (because you might be shaving off too much), but it does continually allow you to cash out of your BTC while always maintaining a stash of BTC, but you might say to yourself that you will only start to cash out profits at the first interval, once the BTC price goes to $30k.. or something like that... but you have to figure out those thresholds and intervals for yourself and what makes sense for your situation.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
MichaelWitcoff said:
You’re talking about Bitcoin as if it’s a real investment-worthy asset, like stocks or real estate, which grow in proportion to the increase in their value.
I will agree with you that different kinds of asset classes have differing attributes, bitcoin's increase in value is likely going to come with ongoing sound money qualities, and increasingly people will likely put their money into it because it is a kind of gold 2.0, so it is more scarce than gold, but it is also more portable, divisible, verifiable and even less problematic to use/store in terms of fees and security and third parties.

There seems to be value in a kind of sound money, even if you might not appreciate such value possibilities.


MichaelWitcoff said:
That’s the only time it makes sense to talk about long-term time horizons, to give them time to reach their potential. What is Bitcoin growing into?
Bitcoin already is, and surely it continues to be adopted too, so there are seven network effects as outlined by Trace Mayer.. but of course, it is helpful to have some insight into what each of the network effects mean for bitcoin becoming stronger and stronger with increased development and adoption and financialization, which has already been taking place through its 11+ years of existence.


MichaelWitcoff said:
What does it produce?
Produces sound money options for people, which could mean to be able to pay or to store or to hold their value. And, they do not need permission to use it, once they have it and if they figure out ways to safeguard their private keys.

MichaelWitcoff said:
What causes the price to go up or down?
For the short term it can be a bit more difficult to figure out price direction and/or causation of price movements, but for the longer term, the most credible and dominant BTC price prediction theories recently are the 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) s-curve adoption based on networking/metcalfe principles. So there can be considerable deviance from the models, but they attempt to both describe history, present value and to assign some probability to future value.


MichaelWitcoff said:
A. Nothing,
B. Nothing,
C. Speculation and what people think others are willing to pay.
You can believe whatever you want.

MichaelWitcoff said:
Hence why I don’t consider it a real investment -
You can consider bitcoin however, you like, and maybe you will be right, and maybe you will not. You can also choose your various allocations into various investments, whether that includes BTC or not... Your choice.


MichaelWitcoff said:
there is no growth in intrinsic value that could reliably and proportionally cause the price to rise.
Bitcoin seems to have been growing quite a bit in the past 11+ years, and yeah, maybe there are some areas in which some people might conclude that bitcoin is too stagnant or is not growing or changing enough, but seems to be growing to me, whether we are considering number of people using it or mining power or software development being built on top of bitcoin, or exchanges and other avenues of liquidation and financialization.


MichaelWitcoff said:
And it’s clearly a terrible hedge against stock market corrections, which everyone claimed it was going to be. “Invest” if you want but I hope you consider these points.
In the short term, some markets are going to be overly correlated, including when there seems to be a liquidity crisis and lack of confidence overall in macrosystems.

Of course, bitcoin does not live in a vacuum, so some of the crisis seems to have decent effects on bitcoin, in the short term, but it is hardly accurate to conclude that you understand the degree to which bitcoin is correlated or not based on some short term price movements, and probably you need to zoom out a bit to attempt to recognize a decent amount of lack of correlation of bitcoin to any other asset class, even if in the short term you might see some short periods of seeming correlation.

Reasonable people can come to differing conclusions in their assessments, and some people speculate about these matters while taking a stake in their theory and others sit on the sidelines and merely speculate, so surely, any guy can attempt to decide if there is any motivation for him to invest in bitcoin or to change his bitcoin allocations, and surely, he might be in a better position now to set up some bitcoin accounts than he might be during more crazy periods when bitcoin goes shooting up in price (which may or may not happen in the future), and sometimes it can be better for guys to have at least set up some bitcoin account(s) in order to be prepared, because sometimes guys write off bitcoin and then they end up trying to rush to set up an account, and sometimes it might take a month or longer to set up an account...depending on how rushed some of the services might become. We have seen that in the past including 2017 and early 2018.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
MichaelWitcoff said:
I don’t own Bitcoin and won’t be putting a single penny into cryptocurrency beyond what I did before I knew better.
Bitcoin and crypto is not the same thing, so I would not recommend that you put any money into any shitcoins. Bitcoin is not a shitcoin.

Regarding your lack of an investment into bitcoin, maybe you at least have tried it, so perhaps one step further than Tail Gunner.. Perhaps?

Funny how guys who do not own any bitcoin want to come into this thread and lecture people regarding how smart they are in regards to both what bitcoin is and what it's supposed investment potentials are (or are not in the case of both you and tail gunner).

You are not even shorting bitcoin, but I suppose that you might have some investments into other assets that you believe are competing with bitcoin. In tail gunners case, he believes in gold, and so it probably would not be a stretch to speculate that you, MichaelWitcoff, believe that gold is a better investment than bitcoin because it has a longer history, it is more tangible, has more financial instruments and it has industrial uses, etc etc.

MichaelWitcoff said:
I speculated with crypto and the returns ranged from over 1000% gain to over 90% loss and everywhere in between because at the time I didn’t understand the idea that I wasn’t actually investing, but gambling.
Hopefully it is accurate for me to presume that you are referring to bitcoin. This is a bitcoin thread, so there is no need for us to talk about crypto, unless you want to make some kind of point that connects bitcoin to crypto... ? Hopefully, you can try to focus somewhat so that we do not go all over the place in terms of what we are talking about.

Regarding bitcoin, yes, it can be very volatile. So yeah, between late 2015 and late 2017 there was like a 78x price increase from $250 to $19,666.

And, then from December 2017 to December 2018, there was about a 84% price drop from $19,666 to $3,124.

So, yes, BTC prices can become quite volatile, and it is possible that similar volatility could happen in the future; however, I believe that the historical data shows that bitcoin has tended to become a bit less volatile with the passage of time, which makes some sense in terms of ongoing adoption and more capital or leverage tools is/are needed in order to attempt to move the BTC price by the same kind of magnitude.

Currently, I am not really sure what would be a fair theoretical price bounce off area for BTC in the event that we get another upwards BTC price bubble, and part of that uncertainty comes from being a bit unclear about whether the bottom is "in" for this cycle or not. But, let's just say hypothetically that BTC prices were to do 50x instead of 78x, then that could theoretically put BTC prices in the $200k, range, and if there is an 80% correction, then BTC prices would drop back down to $40k, which surely is within a realm of possibilities, but surely is far from inevitable regarding what bitcoin is going to do or how BTC price dynamics might play out in the coming couple of years from our current price point.

We have a BTC halvening that is coming up in a bit over 6 weeks, and historically, those halvenings have tended to restrict the new supply of bitcoin, but sometimes the price effect of that restricted supply might take several months or even a year before it is really starting to be felt.... so there can be actual dynamics in bitcoin that tugs the price in both directions, including ongoing macro economic uncertainties including the uncertainties with the virus but also uncertainties regarding continued reactions from economic players including ongoing shutting down of businesses and travel, which also could result in attempts at shutting down communications, too... so yeah, lots of uncertainties in the coming months and even years starting from our current jumping off point.


MichaelWitcoff said:
Now that I know better I will never speculate or gamble, but invest only in real investment vehicles with underlying measurable value.
I say the same thing. It is not good to gamble too much with your investments, and of course, even if you try to minimize gambling, you cannot completely remove some gambling dynamics. Part of the concern with any kind of investment is attempting to assign accurate probabilities to future events, and preparing for either direction. Of course, if you believe that an event only has a 1% chance of happening, you should not put 20% or 30% of resources into that, and the same is true if you believe that some event has 20 or 30% chances of happening, then you should attempt the best that you can to allocate your various portfolio and risks and everything in accordance with the various fair assignments of probabilities.. not pie in the sky bullshit but instead realistic assessments that also attempt to manage risks including attempting to be prepared if your investment moves against what you had thought to be the more probable outcome.

MichaelWitcoff said:
In a certain sense, gaining a big profit with crypto is worse than a big loss because it teaches you bad investing habits and you’ll confuse fortunate timing with intelligent investing.
I agree. That would not be good.


MichaelWitcoff said:
I hope that you will think critically about what’s being said here about Bitcoin instead of just getting defensive.
Now you are devolving into patronizing, and nobody's got time for that.

I think that I have explained my position and my approach to bitcoin throughout this thread, so you can look back to my posts in this thread in November 2013, if you want to stalk me, but I have had a pretty decently consistent plan through my investing into bitcoin, and there has NOT been any get rich quick bullshit from me, I had invested in decently slow amounts and it took me about a year to establish my initial stake in bitcoin, which was my goal of about 10%.

I could have changed my stake at any time that I wanted, and I have established practices and approaches that are tailored to my various situation, so don't be so pretentious as to presume that you understand my finances and my situation and to suggest that I have been fucking around with gambling strategies, when that has not either been my history or my practice.

Now, since you are not really very interested in bitcoin, and you just want to lecture about something that you don't really know about, I have some troubles understanding why you are going to remain interested in participating in this thread, when your only message or contribution seems to be that guys should not invest in bitcoin. blah blah blah.. and I am not sure how helpful that is. ..
 

Stats

Robin
Any one have the ticker symbol for the new bitcoin etf released on the TSX on thursday? I want to buy some bitcoin fund in a tax free saving account. any suggestions of what my options are? and thoughts on these funds vs holding btc? tax exempt seems like a big benefit.
 

Jaydublin

Pelican
Freebird Flying said:
The people who love bitcoin the most are the ones who got in cheap or who are trading it. For a casual person, it's quite risky to bother with. Would I want my Mom or family member in? No way!

I doubt they will keep buying it after it goes up to 20K, that's where the suckers come in and get burned again (in theory). I can't see buying it ever if it's over 10K for a BTC. At the current price I see some value if I can get someone to come in later and pay more for it so I can put the money to actual use.
Nonsense. That could have been said from 5$ to 50$ to 500$ to 5,000$
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Stats said:
Any one have the ticker symbol for the new bitcoin etf released on the TSX on thursday? I want to buy some bitcoin fund in a tax free saving account. any suggestions of what my options are? and thoughts on these funds vs holding btc? tax exempt seems like a big benefit.

You likely know about that investment fund better than me.

If you are interested in bitcoin there are also advantages to buying it directly because sometimes there will be quite a few restrictions with going through a fund including third party risks. There is some power in just having some bitcoin that is under your own control.. like having physical PMs... But maybe better than PMs in the sense that there are likely more liquidation avenues and divisibility, portability that just gives you options that you might not have if you have your bitcoins in some kind of a fund.

Nothing wrong with doing both, even though I personally place more value on the ability to have physical possession and direct ownership of the bitcoin private keys for the flexibility aspects and also you will likely get to know bitcoin a lot better if you are attempting to directly interact with it... and realizing the power of actual physical possession of the keys (responsibility too.. don't fucking lose your keys... and/or make sure that you secure them and adequately back them up, too).
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Stats said:
Do we need to do anything to prepare for the halving? will there be a new subcoin created like bitcoin cash last time?
Hostile forks are not currently in the main discussions about what is going on in bitcoinlandia, but of course, any kinds of things can happen in bitcoin, and surely the bitcoin halvening does not really guarantee anything, except that the bitcoin new supply issuance is going to cut in half, so sometimes there can be a bit of an opportunity to spread FUD around during that time, even though current uncertainties really revolve around the overall uncertainties in all markets regarding the contrast between the crazy ass money printing of the dollar and other currencies in response to the uncertainties around the impact of the corona virus matters.

So, yeah, there could be some short term driving of BTC prices that are more about macro uncertainties and NOT strictly regarding the upcoming halvening. Of course, the halvening represents the opposite of money printer go bbbbbrrrrr.... and so there are theories out there regarding bitcoin becoming more valuable because of such halvening, even though also historically it had been that it can take several months and even a year after the halvening before the decreased bitcoin new supply ends up really getting felt and causing strong upwards BTC price pressures.

So, yeah, still to be seen if exponential BTC price rise is going to repeat itself including questions regarding if the seemingly dominant BTC price prediction models are going to play out - including 1) stock to flow 2) four year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking and metcalfe principles.

Seems like a good time to be accumulating, even if BTC prices might go lower in the short term... and, sure guys are not necessarily going to agree regarding how much to allocate towards bitcoin and how risky they believe it to be in terms of whether bitcoin really is an asymmetrical bet.

Here's a nice contemporary article from Arthur Hayes (Bitmex CEO) from yesterday describing some of the money printing dynamics in light of the current Corona virus uncertainties.. yeah, there are all kind of uncertainties regarding how these matters are going to play out in the market.

https://blog.bitmex.com/choose-your-fiction/

Surely, the article is offering just one perspective to be taken with a grain of salt, and Arthur is NO dummy, or should NOT be written off because he owns a bitcoin exchange, that is for sure.
 

joost

Kingfisher
If the demand for Bitcoin increases, the price will go up. The opposite will happen if demand decrease.

Price can go way up. But you also have a chance of price hitting zero. If you think price will go up you should buy.

Code:
Once upon a terribly dreadful time, there was a small cat-licking bird that lived on a not-so-big lane by my house whose name was Charles just like every other soul, male or female, that lived on my smelly, stinky, orange, old, rotten, messy, busted cul-de-sac between Belmont and Rose which are both Gay-ass Streets Like North street or some shit that reminds me of a celebrity like Paris Hilton or some blonde loser that doesn't even know the capital of her own country, which is the United States of America aka: The U.S.A which is a pristine nation of beauty, opposing to a country as the country of Somalia and Belgium, a part of Europe, which doesn't even have a government, it's just in a complete state of anarchy just like my mind and soul which are both filled with outrageous nonsense that I'm typing down right now into some fat long sentence that probably makes no sense but who cares I'm trying to set some sort of weird record here like most ducks snorted or some weird thing like that and if I do set some sort of record I will be in the Guinness Book of World Records (though anti-American and pro-European, a place of pitty and despair as Somalia is) which was always my dream because that book has a whole bunch a cool and weird stuff in it and I would Become famous and add to the weirdness of the book like some of their records which reminds me of the Rob & Big where Rob sets all of those skateboarding Records And Big Black eats bananas and donuts and three weeks later they both get plaques saying the record they set and I want to get one of those so that's why I'm writing all of this stuff down without ever using a period or some other sentence ending mark like an exclamation point or a question mark or any other symbol that could possibly end my streak of words that is really long now and would take me a while to count just like counting sheep which is supposed to put you to sleep but it really keeps you awake because you want to keep counting and counting until you don't know what comes after trillions, but that would take Years or something because it would take a while just to count a trillion seconds or minutes would be even worse just like how ducks are worse that geese because they are more aggressive around their young unlike great white sharks which are often eaten by their mothers when they are born and the ones who do make it out alive have no mother to teach them how to hunt or whatever because none of that matters because us human beings have mothers unless they die or run off with some CEO of a big company or someone else who makes a lot of money and then they leave you with your dad and you are jealous of your friends if you have any because they have moms and you don't because your mom was some greedy pig who wanted money but ended up only getting the money part and she bought drugs because she was depressed and ended up killing herself from an overdose and you wouldn't even know about it until you become some rich person and check the files somewhere and learn that she died of a overdose and you eyes get all teary and then you start crying because you know that you wouldn't be alive without that woman you called mom and I just found out right now that the longest sentence is like 10,000 words so I have a ways to go and you have to go with me so let's go to 6th gear and throw out some words like Emphysema which I had to do a report on in 4th grade because we had a ton of projects and this was the disease one and we chose diseases out of a hat and I came out with Emphysema which is a form of lung cancer which is 98% caused by smoking which reminds me of the way my dad describes smoking: "you get plant leaves, wrap them in paper, light it on fire and suck on it" which is normally a sentence but not today because I'm setting out on the quest for a long sentence that I'm typing up which reminds me of a story my grandpa told me about himself when he was "your age" about how they covered the letters on the type writers and they had to type so that they could memorize where the letters are on a type writer and my grandpa says he will never regret taking that class because it helped him out a lot when it came to typing and now a days he is not bad a typing at all because He is almost as fast as me because I am a pretty fast typer and writing this article isn't taking very long and expect being pretty far pretty soon at the pace I'm going right now so there are going to be some serious records getting busted when I'm finally finished writing this article on this dumb website which will probably end up huffing this article even though it is fun-packed and joyful and keeps the reader reading when they use that excuse to mom saying "just one more sentence" but that sentence is 10,000 words long and still continuing to go at a reasonable pace and it is going to shatter most of those long sentence records just like how the chargers are going to shatter the most consecutive years without a super bowl win record and I doubt that they will win one in the near future but they patriots are going to win some serious super bowls because they are the best team ever even better than the cowboys or 49ers and no one cares a bout them so go patriots and boo chargers even though I live in San Diego and Like the Padres I hate the Chargers because they are bad and the padres are bad too but I don't care because they are my favorite team and the dodgers are my least favorite along with the Yankees because the Yankees get a lot of money to spend and the padres and marlins get almost nothing and then the Yankees buy a-rod for a lot and the Rays get almost no money but are still fighting for first place this season without expensive players like Derek jeter or a-rod or johnny damon or whoever because they are an all around better team that can beat the Yankees even though the Yankees can beat the royals a lot who really suck because they suck more that the padres do and so do the mariners and Rockies even thought the Rockies went to the world series last year they lost and haven't stopped losing for a while now, either and they are last place in the nl west and that is where the padres used to be but they started hitting homeruns and winning games and are dong pretty good right now despite having little offense except for Adrian Gonzalez who is leading the NL in RBI's even though he is on the team who scores the least runs in the league but they are not last in homeruns though they are like 5 away or something but I’m not sure so screw that and let's talk about something fun like water or food or dirt or something but I think food is the best because their is a lot of things to talk about with food like you r favorite food which mine happens to be some spicy burrito form Chipotle mexican grill and it is very good just like this macaroni my mom made one time that had bread crumbs on top and it was very good like all of the food they serve on top chef which I wish I could be a judge for because they have a lot of good food on that show and it makes my mouth water whenever I watch it and that is why I watch it because the food is totally awesome and sometimes I hate the people but they end up getting eliminated like the Dance crews in France's Best Dance Crew which is a great show and you should watch it because people do good dancing like the JFrabbawockeez because they won the first season and they are very good just like supreme soul and So real crew and phresh select and super cr3w and I’m only at 1500 words right now so I have to write some serious stuff like a life biography about myself and anything I’ve ever done which includes going to big bear to ski, fishing, breathing, swimming, going, farting, eating, sleeping and a whole lot more stuff which reminds me of 4th grade again when my teacher was debating with the class whether "a lot" was one or two words and all of the kids including myself said one while the teacher said two and he was right and we were wrong but no one cared because we all had fun arguing about and I have fun arguing with my friends about football and not baseball because in baseball we all like the same team but in football I like the patriots and my friends like the chargers and the 49ers and the eagles and the saints but my team always woops their team's ass and they say that the patriots "cheat" and that's how they won even though the patriots just pwned their team and they suck and my team is good but we all agree when it comes to baseball because we all like the padres and we never really argue over anything in baseball which is my favorite sport and I play it and I am good a it and I want it to be my profession but I doubt that that will happen so my backup plan is being a cop because you get all of the benefits and you get paid after you retire which is good news and I would also like to be some government dude or something like that because they get the benefits too so it would be cool to work for the government which reminds me that my principal worked at the white house and taught the president email because he was the computer guy or something like that so h knows a whole bunch of computer crap like my dad and he is fat too so everyone makes fun of him and I think he huffs kittens too but I am not sure and about that and what the hell is up with all the n00b and kitten huffing on this gay ass website like all of the things like "the writer may have been huffing kittens" and stuff like that it really annoys the hell out of me just like other things such as when people clip their finger nails it makes that weird noise that get me all crazy and I hate it just like how me friend hates the sound of chalk on a chalkboard which I find soothing and relaxing but he gets really annoyed and psyched out and he is also very pale-skinned and so is the rest of his family so it must have been some genetic thing like twins and clones and whole bunch of other confusing science crap that I learned a long time ago in 7th grade or something which was when we watched movies in class like UHF which has weird al in it and it is very funny because weird al has to save a TV station with a whole bunch of weird shows like wheel of fish and rauls wild kingdom with a whole bunch of cool animals like flamingos and turtles and stuff like that but who cares lets get to the meaty part of this article which is the part where I write the longest word known to man which is Methionylthreonylthreonyl...isoleucine which is cut out because it has 189,819 words so wikipedia had to cut out the middle part and the longest word is the name of a protein which is the largest known to man to so big names go to big things is apparently the moral of this story ladies and gentleman the road doesn't stop here and I have to continue no matter what you say or think so I should just write some story now that has no periods so lets start with a guy named Carl who liked fish and women and he went to Clara’s house and they had a good food but that isn't enough of a story to set the record so I think I’ll just stick to writing random crap which really makes no sense at all and here is some random picture that shows a guy who has two legs and another guy who has three who is mocking the guy with two legs because he rips his flesh in disgust every night and you think about who would be dumb enough to rip their flesh instead of cut the ring off or something that doesn't involve entirely gruesome crap like that and I have another life after this one just like how cats have 9 lives I have three because I’m on my second one right now and it is great and you might think I’m a whole new person but you are thinking wrong it's just when I died I came back t life and next time I die I’ll come back to life again and then when I die I’ll be dead for sure which reminds me of Stephen king's book called pet sematary which is coo because people come back to life because there was a burial ground that bring people back to life if they are dead and that book is a great book and you should read it along with the Harry Potter series which has magic in it and it is cool too so don't shank yourself when you are cutting that meat for dinner or you might die of massive blood loss or might just need a band aid I mean that works too or you don't even need a band aid because I don't use them and I have never gotten and infection in my life so maybe I’m lucky or have an alligator immune system or something but I don't use band aids and I don't use Neosporin on my cuts so I’m some sort of miracle I guess but I’m wasting twenty minutes of my miracle life on this retard article that I just want the Guinness book of world records to see and go that is the longest thing ever and have me in their book so I’m striving towards that goal right now and I’m not stopping until I hit at least 3000 words and then I’ll do the construction thing and finish thing up tomorrow or sometime after now and I will be the author of the longest single sentence on the planet earth which will be a real accomplishment on my part so you can be real jealous right now because I am making history right in front of you and if you are still reading this I am truly impressed because this article must be getting really boring by now and maybe your not even reading this just scanning the article for periods which I’m afraid you will not find until the very end of this article which is a very, very, long way away and if you are a slow reader well sucks for you but now I have to use that construction thing and I will finish this and now I am back after a hard day at work but I’m still going now so get ready to rumble with this long thing called a sentence that is as long as Mt. Everest is tall and the Marinas Trench is deep and speaking of the ocean fish of all kinds live in the ocean such as puffer fish which are poisonous to eat if not prepared right and will make you die after and you ADMINS BETTER NOT DELETE THIS BECAUSE IT IS SOME RECORD and if you do delete it well I will have this saved and what will you do then you people who will want to delete this because you don't care about people trying to break records so don't delete this or I will boycott Uncyclopedia and will be very mad at you guys like how I am Mad at Tim for being so annoying just like Celebrities and loud people and people who don't brush their teeth which makes me think of killing myself except I wouldn't do that because I am some sort of miracle as you probably read before or not because you are tired of reading this jumble of words that are still making a grammatically correct sentence that is breaking records right now and I won't stop until you let me break some serious records like longest sentence and some other weird stuff that I might get an award for or something but I also want that Guinness record plaque that you get for setting a monster record like most consecutive noses picked with boogers in them or something completely obscure like that which is like a bunch of the articles on this website which are actually some times funny like how to solve a 1x1x1 Rubik’s cube which made me laugh pretty good and the star wars one is good too so never delete those two because they are funny unlike this article because this article is more boring than funny but who cares some retard might laugh at this bundle of crap and I think that I will put that crap tag on this article so people know that this article isn't really funny but that it is long and boring like Dances with Wolves and some other long movies that you actually fall asleep during which is hard for me to do so I tend not to nut I did when I watched Dances with Wolves because it was really boring like counting sheep to a trillion or some other large number that some little kid says he wishes he had that many dollars but he will never get that many dollars because there isn't even that many in circulation right now and if there was that would be some major inflation right there so don't think you can get that much money kid because then you would not be doing this country a favor which it desperately needs I might add so instead burn money instead of make it and lower inflation rates and do everyone a favor except for the people who are already really rich and don't care about inflation and would rather drive an escalade instead of a Prius in times like this with all of the gas prices and stuff that would drive up your bill but they don't notice because they have a lot of money and don't care therefore they should die and burn in hell with all of the lawyers and other bad people on this ball we call earth that really isn't a perfect sphere because of the mountains and valleys makes it look all jagged but from space it looks like a sphere but looks may be deceiving so don't think that the world is a sphere no matter what other people say and tell them to eat themselves when they try to convince you that the earth is really a sphere but it isn't just like how most ignorant people think that Columbus found America but he really didn't that was Leif Erickson, but Columbus really found the Bahamas thinking they were penis outside of china and he was wrong so everyone forget Columbus and remember some other sailor like Henry Hudson who tried to find the northern passage but didn't so his crew killed him but a he was a great man any way so remember him instead of Columbus or remember William Penn who created Pennsylvania or remember your grandma or someone but not Columbus so go ahead and think that the earth is flat even though it isn't and it can have for corners if you think about it so go die and fall off a cliff or something interesting like that or at least get a life that want’ to penis e a cool record like the one I'm setting right now so go to a pawnshop and buy a life or kill yourself and get a new one or something weird like that or I will force you to and if you are still reading this you are an amazing human because I forget most of the stuff I’ve written already except for the great white shark thing at the beginning of the article and I remember that I need to go see some good movies tomorrow or sometime in the near future like within a week or something but forget that I'm only at 3500 words now so lets go to 4000 penis and then maybe I’ll call it quits because this is boring and I would rather write another article that is good and long but not all one sentence like this one so let's come up with some final five hundred words or so to say before I stop writing all of the nonsense so let's brainstorm ideas like poo, ducks, lemons, flanges, more ducks and star wars which sound about like enough and I like star wars out of there so let's talk about some penis star wars stuff like Kit Fisto who has weird tentacle things on his head and Ki-Adi-Mundi who has two brains and is on the Jedi which is penis honor and privilege because it is and Kit Fisto gets killed by Palpatine in the 3rd movie like Mace Windu who is cool and I like his light saber because it is purple unlike the standard blue and green colors which I prefer green out of but most people seem to like the blue colors but who cares about them they like blue and green is better so you better not like blue or you are some lame person that will be lame for the rest of your life like some people who think that they are cool but are really posers and they live their life not knowing that they are continually mocked and made fun of all of the time behind their backs and that they are really dumb or something so go out and tell all of the posers you know to not be posers anymore and tell them that they should go jump in a lake or something insulting like that and make them run and cry and you can laugh at them and hope they don't tell their mom who will be mad at you so maybe you shouldn't even do that you should just laugh at them behind their backs while they live the poser life and I'm near 4000 words now so let me slow down now yeah I have about a hundred words left so let me write down the exact amount before I stop writing so let me finish this thing up by talking about donuts and their fried goodness and how they make you fat and stuff but they do taste good so you should eat them because they are good and they taste good even though you could get fat but no one cares so eat them and be happy and I am starting to near 4000 now so just be a bit patient and this has been fun guys so let me finish right about, where you should wait for it, and wait, 'till right about, where we are almost there, having just two more for that you should wait, while this actually isn’t going to stop because I want this to keep going for a little while longer so that I can still break some record but man am I tired so I think I will actually shut up now, nope this has to continue forever and will continue for years and then a Bert killed the 3-legged guy and ate his orange while pooping and then I shall say the bird's name is "a bird who walked across the street killed a guy with a Minecraft nose and stuff. Jesus Christ is my lord and savior.You guys probably think that that is the worlds longest sentence, but it's not,because I just keep on adding commas, and it's pretty easy, if you think about it, so anyway there is this girl at school and she's my friend, and all but she's turning really mean, its a different person, and im trying to beat the record, but that girl, who likes this boy, who likes this girl, and who likes this other boy, and that same kid likes this other girl, but that girl like another guy, but the guy is actualy a 40 year old man that eats penis for a living for the ability to never show the meerkats who's doing the write things oh and my last remark is that socialism does not work because look at Europe and Greece which is failing miserably; America always wins, there is no doubt about America's beauty, Amen and I just made it longer, and longer still as I continue to talk and talk and talk and talk throughout this, though I believe it would be referred to more as typing, so I will continue to type and type and type and type and type until I grow bored of it, and I have so I will take my leave soon, but not before I say that I somehow managed to make this already super long sentence longer, so HALLEILUIA, but we are not done yet everything I just said IS NOT RELEVANT to daily life, if you read this all you have no life, did u mention I like waffles and pancakes and people and gay marrage. This is a hell of a sentance peeps. What ever the man did the child would not wake up from the bullet that entered his head and he woke up again to find himself in heaven and then he felt fire and it was hot very hot very hot very hot very hot very hot but then he said "so" and he was alive again, alive, alive, alive, alive and then he flew like a bird and he looked in the mirror and saw his wings and his beak and his legs he was a bird like wow like what like wow like what thats so cool but then a dragon came and saved the bird and turned him into a princess and he had to live with the dragons and it was so boring and like who wrote this, who has the time to do this, because I obviously don't, and many other people don't, such as the president, CEOs of companies, terrorists, workers, kids, parents, adults, and many other people, but who gives a fuck about what we're doing, because this is all bullshit.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Tail Gunner said:
Let me guess. New Bitcoin code.

Honestly, I was expecting something a bit different from the Bitcoin halving.
You are starting to get a better grasp on bitcoin, tailgunner?

You understand what the bitcoin halvening is, right?

This will be ONLY the third time in bitcoin's history that there has been a halvening, so in essence it is halvening of the issuance of the new supply of bitcoin, so instead of about 1,800 new bitcoin's being issued/mined/made available to put on the market per day, after the halvening, only 900 new bitcoins will be mined per day.

Historically, the market might respond around the time of the halvening, but there is nothing that really needs to happen right at the time of the halvening, but historically within some time after the halvening, maybe 6 months to 18months later, the market has tended to react to the ongoing increasing upwards price pressures (which seems to come from the reduction of the new supply), and the supply pressures cause the price to shoot up, and likely to be much greater than doubling.

Sure, there are questions about whether the price dynamics of the halvening might already be priced in, and therefore NOT cause any kind of price rise (due to the price pressures), but those seem to be largely wishful thinkers than anyone who really understand bitcoin or the more likely price dynamics that are likely to be similar patterns as what we have had in the past, partly due to the relatively low level of Bitcoin adoption, so very difficult to price in something such as a halvening when such a broad swath of people coming into bitcoin do not really understand the halvening and even some people who are already involved in bitcoin do not really understand the halvening.

We have another dynamic in bitcoin, too, that I have likely mentioned before, and that is that bearwhales, bitcoin naysayers and altcoin pumpers share a kind of agenda to want to either break the stock to flow model or to get people to believe that it is NOT true, so they are likely to attempt as much as they can to attempt to take advantage of the current uncertainties of the macroenvironment including uncertainties around the virus to try to attempt to manipulate BTC's price for as long as they can to push BTC's price as low as they can and for as long as they can.

Part of the question remains whether the bitcoin bear whales can have any amount of success. Interesting times, so we will see, right?
 
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