The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
I used to be the biggest believer in BTC and cryptocurrencies. March made me a huge skeptic.

There is simply too much downside to BTC at this point. As we saw in March, any massive market correction will take down BTC gloriously. BTC dropped 50% in one day, alts flashed to 30% of their price in one day.

If you're bearish on the stock market, I'd stay away from BTC. It's very difficult to instill mass institutional confidence in an asset that has that level of volatility in a worldwide depression.

You haven't considered many, many variables that all counter your position. Deflation is the first. Inflation is the second. Hyperinflation is the third. For example, the March move down (with gold) is easily explainable --- and there are many reasons why that will be less and less common in the future.
 

ginsu

Woodpecker
I used to be the biggest believer in BTC and cryptocurrencies. March made me a huge skeptic.

There is simply too much downside to BTC at this point. As we saw in March, any massive market correction will take down BTC gloriously. BTC dropped 50% in one day, alts flashed to 30% of their price in one day.

If you're bearish on the stock market, I'd stay away from BTC. It's very difficult to instill mass institutional confidence in an asset that has that level of volatility in a worldwide depression.

It's interesting how events can lead us to different conclusions. If anything I like bitcoin more now. You are focussing on the drop, I'm looking at how it bounced back. And guess what it has bounced back every single time so far. This volatility is what gives it such great potential too. I look at these Bigg drops as big players playing the market to acquire more coins. If it's worth it to them to keep engaging in that, how is that not extremely positive. Disregard these big up and down swings, just take their average and look at the big picture to see where it's headed.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Nothing wrong selling. If you sell most of your BTC at 100k and then it goes to 1m, even in hindsight, I don't see you as an idiot. Maybe selling at 100k is enough for you to retire early, save your family from ruin or achieve your life goals. There's no point doing all this just for bragging rights.

Many guys likely realize that I have been an ongoing advocate of incrementalism, long term planning and tailoring the BTC portion of your investment portfolio (to the extent that you have BTC in your investment portfolio) to your own circumstances.... So my personal plan does not involve every completely going out of BTC, even though I will likely soon evolve into more of a liquidation stage, rather than earlier accumulation and maintenance stages, and surely having a position that is largely in profits gives a lot of flexibility in choosing how much BTC to cash out and when, and sure a personal decision whether there is some kind of impulse to cash out everything in order to consider if there might be some better place to put your money or at least to diversify, somewhat out of BTC, which seems prudent in any event that it does not seem to be too prudent to be totally allocated in any one asset class, whether BTC or some other asset class(es).

I used to be the biggest believer in BTC and cryptocurrencies. March made me a huge skeptic.

Get out of here. There is hardly NO way that you would have been "the biggest" believer in BTC and become so scared of short term market movements, including c considering March to have been more negatively reflective of bitcoin than other asset classes. Sure, I understand the fact that in the short-term BTC prices corrected larger than other assets, such as equities and gold, but really you either need to attempt to understand some of what is happening in the short term by zooming out or otherwise attempting to understand some of the reasonable and plausible explanations for BTC falling more greatly on a short time frame without actually indicating that bitcoin is actually weak in its fundamentals.

There is simply too much downside to BTC at this point.

hahaahha... yeah right.

Good luck with that mindset.

Of course, bitcoin has downside, and it also has upside, and surely any guy should be attempting to weigh both downside and upside in order to figure how much value to allocate into BTC, if any.

And, if really, you see bitcoin has having ONLY downside in our current environment, then surely you are missing something in your own understanding of what bitcoin is and how it might fit into the whole scheme of things, including various options available and including whether bitcoin has any sound money component, as it is described as having. Do you understand the sound money angle of bitcoin, and how exactly would you consider bitcoin to be weak in terms of the sound money aspect? Maybe I should not be asking this question because I might be inviting nonsensical arguments, but maybe this angle should be explained by any guy who is considering bitcoin to NOT be offering anything but downside potential in current market conditions?

As we saw in March, any massive market correction will take down BTC gloriously. BTC dropped 50% in one day, alts flashed to 30% of their price in one day.

Yes, we know that bitcoin dropped 50% in one day, and it also recovered, and we know that bitcoin is very liquid and has some outrageous vehicles for playing around with margin, including 100x leveraging possibilities on Bitmex, and yes those kinds of price discovery vehicles can cause extreme behaviors, as we witnessed on March 12, and likely part of the explanation for the outrageous bounce back has to do with the outrageous level of the price correction, too.

And regarding alts going down 30% in one day, who gives any shits about alts? Especially in this thread? I doubt that the price performance of the alts on March 12 explain hardly anything about the alts, except that they were following BTC's price correction on that day.

If you're bearish on the stock market, I'd stay away from BTC.

I doubt that BTC is going to perform worse than the stock market in the long term, and you can look at all kinds of charts that compare BTC to the stockmarket and largely see that bitcoin is not correlated to the stock market, and if anything BTC tends to outperform the stockmarket, and for anyone who is attempting to study and understand the BTC space, there should be little to no reason to conclude that BTC remains quite likely to continue to outperform the stock market.

Sure, reasonable minds can differ regarding their expectations of future performance of these various asset classes, and it seems quite likely, to me, that anyone betting against bitcoin, based on their negative perceptions of the stock market future performance is likely to be having considerable difficulties understanding what it is, exactly, that bitcoin is bringing to the table that actually causes it to differ from the stock market and likely to continue to NOT be correlated to the stock market and also likely to quite considerably outperform the stock market in the longer time horizon..

It's very difficult to instill mass institutional confidence in an asset that has that level of volatility in a worldwide depression.

No need to instill mass institutional confidence.

With the passage of time, people are going to recognize the value of bitcoin, whether institutions recognize it or not. Even institutions are likely to recognize the value of putting some value into bitcoin, and even currently, they seem to be both increasingly learning about bitcoin and also increasingly recognizing various ways to diversify part of their holdings into bitcoin. Seems to be ongoing upward trends in terms of more and more institutions and richer individuals recognizing the value in having some stake in bitcoin, whether you can appreciate that actual happening or not.

Of course, the institutions and individuals who recognize the various value propositions of bitcoin and take investment actions earlier, rather than later, are likely going to be profiting to greater degrees than those individuals and institutions that wait longer before they take some initial long term positions and goals to accumulate in bitcoin.
 

Graft

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Get out of here. There is hardly NO way that you would have been "the biggest" believer in BTC and become so scared of short term market movements, including c considering March to have been more negatively reflective of bitcoin than other asset classes. Sure, I understand the fact that in the short-term BTC prices corrected larger than other assets, such as equities and gold, but really you either need to attempt to understand some of what is happening in the short term by zooming out or otherwise attempting to understand some of the reasonable and plausible explanations for BTC falling more greatly on a short time frame without actually indicating that bitcoin is actually weak in its fundamentals.

Bitcoin is extremely weak in fundamentals.

It's not a "store of value." It actually has no real value. It swings outrageously.

It's inefficient as a currency.

It's easy to lose all your Bitcoin and money.

I realized that Bitcoin is just a gigantic ponzi scheme with a market that's completely manipulated by whales. Can you make money? As long as you sell before the other guy.

Maybe I wasn't the "biggest believer" in BTC, I was more interested in enterprise blockchain platforms like Vechain, ETH, and Chainlink. But I knew they were all tied to BTC.

Will BTC outperform the stock market in the long term? Maybe. But if the market tanks over the next 6 months, I know where BTC will go. Straight to the gutter.
 

Stats

Woodpecker
1. Bitcoin is extremely weak in fundamentals.

2. It's not a "store of value." It actually has no real value. It swings outrageously.

3. It's inefficient as a currency.

4. It's easy to lose all your Bitcoin and money.

5. I realized that Bitcoin is just a gigantic ponzi scheme with a market that's completely manipulated by whales. Can you make money? As long as you sell before the other guy.

Maybe I wasn't the "biggest believer" in BTC, I was more interested in enterprise blockchain platforms like Vechain, ETH, and Chainlink. But I knew they were all tied to BTC.

Will BTC outperform the stock market in the long term? Maybe. But if the market tanks over the next 6 months, I know where BTC will go. Straight to the gutter.

1. Bitcoin has very strong in fundamentals.

2. It is a store of value. its real value is the same any other currency but more resistant to destruction or dilution then fia. because it is still so early in its adoption the outrages swings hide some of these properties.

3. yes in 2020 I agree with you. in 2030 there will be subcurencies that will allow you to spend your btc stash like cash or visa tap

4. Yes this is the BIGGEST risk imo that new users do not realize.

5. Yes correct but it is also so much more. and every day there more people using btc for the first time. at some point in the future the whales will have sold the last of their hodle and the price will stable and volatility will decrease.
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
in 2030 there will be subcurencies that will allow you to spend your btc stash like cash or visa tap

I think this is the most commonly overlooked eventuality. People get too caught up on the other stuff, which they are fundamentally wrong on (the only thing, practically speaking, that gold has on bitcoin is legacy).

It will most likely be asset/collateral. And from that all value will flow, no?
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
I was more interested in enterprise blockchain platforms like Vechain, ETH, and Chainlink. But I knew they were all tied to BTC.

Of course, if you are unable to differentiate bitcoin from other coins, and you are looking them as some kind of amorphous amalgamation, then you likely don't really understand bitcoin. So there is that.

In the end, you can choose for yourself, Graft, if you are going to invest in bitcoin at all, and if you do how much to invest and what your investment strategy will be.

Surely, if you believe that it is not a good investment at all, then likely you will conclude not to invest any. Largely I suggest that people should get off zero, and therefore I suggest investing somewhere between 1% and 10 % of your quasi-liquid investible asset value into bitcoin, and guys are going to differ regarding if they even believe that those levels would be appropriate to their personal financial circumstances which should involve the consideration of cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, and time skills and ability to research, manage your portfolio, trade or tweak strategy/allocations from time to time.
 
Bitcoin is extremely weak in fundamentals.
What are your reasons for believing this?

It's not a "store of value." It actually has no real value. It swings outrageously.
I'll be honest and say the last few months had me questioning the store of value narrative, especially when the price dropped from 10 to 5k but that was due to a short term liquidity crisis caused by the virus and it actually recovered unlike stocks and other commodities. In a liquidity crisis everyone was selling their assets for cash, Bitcoin was no different. I and several others actually predicted that Bitcoin price would drop in next recession similar to how gold did in 2008 and I was proven correct. Over the long term horizen the store of value meme is still holding as shown by the evidence.

It's inefficient as a currency.
I don't think anyone except the sycophants will disagree with you here.

It's easy to lose all your Bitcoin and money.
Agree. This is also good for people that are able to store their keys. One person's loss is another's gain.

I realized that Bitcoin is just a gigantic ponzi scheme with a market that's completely manipulated by whales. Can you make money? As long as you sell before the other guy.

Maybe I wasn't the "biggest believer" in BTC, I was more interested in enterprise blockchain platforms like Vechain, ETH, and Chainlink. But I knew they were all tied to BTC.

Will BTC outperform the stock market in the long term? Maybe. But if the market tanks over the next 6 months, I know where BTC will go. Straight to the gutter.

Everything is a ponzi scheme or bubble, you get nowhere by singling out Bitcoin as one. Historically people that forgot they had bitcoin and never sold made the most profit. It shouldn't matter whether BTC out performs the stock market but rather that you can leverage any investment vehicle to make money rather than simply trading your time for cash. If I knew for certain a particular stock would 50x in the next 6 months I'd trade all my crypto for that.

Why do you think the btc market tanks over the next 6 months? That seems to go against historical precedent and with miners unable to dump BTC on the market as much thanks to the halfing. I think your opinion is ridiculous and goes against the market fundamentals but I'm open to your reasoning.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Big spike ... can it hold?

I thought that if we are lucky, the battle for $10k will transition from a battle of $10k resistance to a battle of $10k support...

That would be a decent scenario.. for us BTC HODLers, but sure, my preference could be based on wishful thinking rather than any concrete evidence that the short term odds are greatly in favor of one price direction versus another.

What do you think?

At least, going up makes $3,850 harder to reach.. and even feeling a bit more comfortable about staying above $6k... and all this time longer term moving averages are moving up (such as the 1 ear moving average is at all time highs, I believe).
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
Those of us who want to add will be lucky to see anything much lower than 7k again. A slow but consisent rise will begin to really occur in 2021 so make sure your position is solid at that point for the mid-to-long term.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Those of us who want to add will be lucky to see anything much lower than 7k again. A slow but consisent rise will begin to really occur in 2021 so make sure your position is solid at that point for the mid-to-long term.

In early March, a lot of us were considering that sub $6k was going to be pretty much out of the question, too, so the March 12 "opportunity" ended up causing some HODLers to panic and do the wrong thing (either sell or fail to buy more).

But sure, you could be correct that sub $7k could be quite difficult, and even recall several price points in the 2015 to 2017 BTC price rise that so much time had been spent meandering around at various price points, and at certain points the BTC price shot up and never returned to those price points in which it had spent so much time, earlier.

Most of the time, I was way more prepared for UP rather than DOWN, so those dynamics did not bother me very much and even made me feel a bit good for leaving behind some of the folks who were waiting for prices to go lower and not buying enough in order to be sufficiently prepared for up.

Of course, patterns do NOT necessarily play out exactly the same on a later timeline, even though BTC seems to continue as a decent ongoing asymmetric bet, so probably does not hurt to have a bit into it, and might not even need to put a large amount in order to get a decent payout..
 

Guy80

Sparrow
Does anyone know the breakdown on mining when power is out of the equation?
Example: 500 Antminer S19 Pro = $1.5 - 1.8mil using different calculators

Trying to determine if building a farm is a worthwhile endeavor.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Does anyone know the breakdown on mining when power is out of the equation?
Example: 500 Antminer S19 Pro = $1.5 - 1.8mil using different calculators

Trying to determine if building a farm is a worthwhile endeavor.

Of course, mining is very competitive with likely long term aspirations too, and there are a variety of business models, including innovations in terms of attempting to use cheap or free energy, which sometimes has inspired some miners to even use older equipment, too.

Here's a couple of links to tales from the crypt shows that suggest mining might be moving towards free/excess energy, but even that could take 10 years to 20 years to play out.. but even exploring those kinds of business relationships or opportunities could enlighten you regarding some competitive edge that you might establish for yourself, if you want to get into such business.

Tales from the Crypt: A Bitcoin Podcast: #150: Great American Mining


Tales from the Crypt: A Bitcoin Podcast: #158: Marshall Holbrook
https://overcast.fm/+KiHouLxRM
 

Guy80

Sparrow
Of course, mining is very competitive with likely long term aspirations too, and there are a variety of business models, including innovations in terms of attempting to use cheap or free energy, which sometimes has inspired some miners to even use older equipment, too.

Here's a couple of links to tales from the crypt shows that suggest mining might be moving towards free/excess energy, but even that could take 10 years to 20 years to play out.. but even exploring those kinds of business relationships or opportunities could enlighten you regarding some competitive edge that you might establish for yourself, if you want to get into such business.

Tales from the Crypt: A Bitcoin Podcast: #150: Great American Mining


Tales from the Crypt: A Bitcoin Podcast: #158: Marshall Holbrook
https://overcast.fm/+KiHouLxRM

Thanks I will def check this out asap; natural gas is about worthless and have a couple large generators that I can power miners with so I'm running the numbers. Longevity of the miners seems to be a negative and it mall be too small of revenue to be worthwhile (my perspective).
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
Does anyone have experiences with Coinify, the new partner that allows CC or bank transfers for crypto buying through the ledger app? Does that require all the identity verification? I see that it is out of Denmark. What about other exchanges now that coinbase is somewhat problematic? Is the Winklevoss creation (Gemini) any good?
 
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