The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

joost

Kingfisher
That would be a similar scenario to the possible scenario for gold.
So you say let's still wait a while for things to get cheaper?
Gold have thousands of years of track record. And it's a great hedge against inflation. Many will say it's real money. I think everybody should own some gold.

I have no idea if Bitcoin will go up or down. Nobody knows. But just like gold, you should have some.

Like everything, buy low, sell high. If you're not sure if it's cheap, it's because it isn't. Have liquidity and during a crisis (happens more often than people think) use that liquidity to buy assets. Real estate is a good option. Car is a bad one.

Imagine this: You have one BTC and it goes to $5million EACH. Do you wait and hope to go to $10million? Of course not. You sell and buy gold, real estate, stocks, cash, etc and retire. You can keep 0.1 BTC and hope it goes even higher but you already secured your future. It doesn't matter what happens next, you're set.
 

joost

Kingfisher
@JayJuanGee

I didn't want to get into details when I mentioned "good tech". Having a limited supply and not being censorable are one of my favorite qualities of BTC.

I do believe the price will go higher but don't take my word for it since I can't predict the future.

When I say people sell their liquid assets first, they will sell what they have to cover expenses. Years ago I heard that Americans have on average $500 in their savings account and can't cover an unexpected $1500 expense. Maybe Bitcoiners belong to a class that has more savings but we can only guess.

I use ATH as a counter-argument against "to the moon" comments. BTC has a market cap of almost $200 Billion. What can push price higher? A Whale? More Chinese people trying to move money out of China? People not selling? BitMEX high-leveraged users? Who knows...


I would love for Bitcoin to have an explosion in user base. In Bitcoin I trust and If the price falls, I will continue to buy some.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
I didn't want to get into details when I mentioned "good tech". Having a limited supply and not being censorable are one of my favorite qualities of BTC.
Fair enough. I understand that sometimes guys might choose different kinds of words to say similar things, but I just wanted to clarify in case we were not referring something close to pure semantics, so your explanation is good enough for me. ;)

I do believe the price will go higher but don't take my word for it since I can't predict the future.
Well, my position in BTC was largely built between 2013 and 2016, and so likely I have been more within a kind of maintenance approach since late 2016. Sure, I might make some tweaks along the way here or there, or maybe I will buy a little or sell a little based on some personal cashflow circumstances, but I am largely not making any kinds of major moves.

I have made quite a few disclosures regarding future plans that I have in terms of liquidation and/or just largely sticking with my maintenance plans, and my plans have not really changed in recent times, even based on some of the various uncertainties in some of the macro spaces in recent times, whether referring to the virus matters, various macro-economic circumstances related to printer go bbbbbrrrrr, and or other various arguably related matters.

When I say people sell their liquid assets first, they will sell what they have to cover expenses.
I thought that my example of the $10k of value in bitcoin and the $10k in cash was describing a very similar kind of liquidity dynamic as to what you were hypothesizing, but I also thought that my example just added more specifics, and maybe I would be able to probe whether you would take any issues with any parts of my example.

Years ago I heard that Americans have on average $500 in their savings account and can't cover an unexpected $1500 expense. Maybe Bitcoiners belong to a class that has more savings but we can only guess.
Even in reality, there could be some differences between the proclivity to save of bitcoiners as compared with the population as a whole, I doubt that it is necessary to go down the road of making such comparisons when we are talking about ongoing bitcoin adoption, even though there are likely some arguments that can be made (and have been made) that bitcoin HODLers do seem to have a pretty decently high threshold when it comes to "buyers of last resort," which has been a theory that has been attempted to apply to explaining why bitcoiners maintain disinclinations to sell their bitcoin and are ready, willing and able to hold down to zero (at least in theory).. hahahahaha... Here's one interesting article, and I believe that I had seen some other articles along the same lines that the HODLers in bitcoin tend to prevent the bitcoin price from falling as much as otherwise would be expected with other asset classes.
 

joost

Kingfisher
I think Bitmex Research is the only useful analysis available for Bitcoin. Here's the latest:

Key Highlights
Crypto Volumes Plummet in June

In June, both Top Tier volumes and Lower Tier spot volumes decreased drastically to $177bn (-36%) and $466bn (-53%) respectively.

Spot volumes have gradually dwindled throughout the month of June, now representing roughly half of the daily volumes seen in the previous month.

Institutional Options Volumes on CME Hit New High

In June, CME total options volumes once again reached an all-time monthly high of 8,444 contracts traded up 41% since May, where 5,986 options contracts were traded.

In contrast, CME futures volumes have decreased since May by 23% (number of contracts) to reach 128,258 in June.

Crypto Derivatives Volumes See 2020 Low

Crypto derivatives volumes dropped 35.7% in June to $393bn – the lowest monthly volumes in 2020. Meanwhile, total spot volumes have decreased by 49.3% to $642.6bn. As a result, derivatives have gained market share and represented 37% of the market in June (vs 32% in May).

Binance and OKEx Remain Top Players in Spot Market

Binance and OKEX remained the top players in terms of volume in June relative to other Top Tier exchanges. Among the top 15 top tier exchanges, they currently represent approximately three quarters of spot volume.

Binance was the largest Top Tier exchange by volume in June, trading $41.8bn (down 19.6%). This was followed by OKEx trading $40.6bn (down 29.0%), and Coinbase trading $6.86bn (down 38.5%).
Full article:


From there you can guess (interpret) how you please.
- Maybe people are holding cash, not knowing what to expect for the next couple of months?
- Maybe people are enjoying COVID holidays?

US Gov is using stimulus money to prop the stock market. Bitcoin has Tether but don't make that much of a difference compared. Bitcoin is trending down.

At the same time a whale might appear, prop the price a little bit and BTC will be front-page news, attracting more "investors" hoping to score it big. Thing is; BTC market cap is $175 Billions. A whale need billions to prop BTC.

Am I saying BTC will go down? Maybe. Am I saying BTC will go up? Maybe.
 
Last edited:

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
I think Bitmex Research is the only useful analysis available for Bitcoin. Here's the latest:

Full article:


From there you can guess (interpret) how you please.
- Maybe people are holding cash, not knowing what to expect for the next couple of months?
- Maybe people are enjoying COVID holidays?

US Gov is using stimulus money to prop the stock market. Bitcoin has Tether but don't make that much of a difference compared. Bitcoin is trending down.

At the same time a whale might appear, prop the price a little bit and BTC will be front-page news, attracting more "investors" hoping to score it big. Thing is; BTC market cap is $175 Billions. A whale need billions to prop BTC.

Am I saying BTC will go down? Maybe. Am I saying BTC will go up? Maybe.
Thanks for that article, joost. I agree with you in regards to the general quality of Bitmex research. They have put out a lot of good analytical pieces in regards to various aspects of bitcoin price dynamics in the past few years.

I would not proclaim them either to be the best or to be the "only" entity that is putting out good quality analytical pieces, but they surely have been recognized as having pretty decent work in that direction.

Regarding your assertion that bitcoin price might be trending down or it might end up going up, I would think that the overall forces continue to be UP in bitcoin, and there are plenty of BIGGER fishes who are striving to continue to accumulate BTC while not moving the BTC price upwards, which continues to increase the chances that bitcoin is going to experience one of those pattern upwards price explosions that leaves a lot of no coiners, fence sitters, shitcoin pumpeners and naysayers in the dust.

Regarding your discussion of Tether, sure Tether does provide some liquidity to bitcoin, but tether is all over the place too, in terms of the various coins that are utilizing it, and of course, there are other stable coins too, but tether happens to be the biggest and so far the most difficult one for regulators to get under their wraps, in spite of the ongoing FUD spreading about it and the various attacks that have so far been executed against it.

Anyhow, bitcoin has been becoming more and more complex in terms of the various markets that overlap it and try to trade it, but bitcoin also continues as king daddy of all the coins, and likely to continue to cause money to gravitate into it, even referring to gold values, too, even though it could take a while for enough investment vehicles to continue to be built around bitcoin in order for larger volumes to flow from gold into bitcoin, because many folks already realize that bitcoin is superior to gold, even though gold has way more traditional investment vehicles that allow institutions to more easily get in and out of it and NOT be questioned by their boards about their investment choices, while those investment vehicles are still developing in bitcoin (giving regular smaller players ongoing opportunities to get into bitcoin before several of the BIGGER players - even though there continue to be increasing numbers of BIGGER players (whether we are referring to financial institutions or even some governments starting to recognize the value of bitcoin) who are quite likely attempting to accumulating some kind of decent position in bitcoin on the sly). Part of their realization about bitcoin dynamics relates to actually attempting to understand the how bitcoins longer term price performance has clustering areas that show that the restrictions of its supply have effects and price pressures that have been analyzed in pretty decent price prediction models - also known as planB's stock to flow model.

Of course, another outrageous exponential bursting upwards of the BTC price might not happen again, and there is always a chance that something goes wrong with this actual historical pattern of behavior (sometimes referred to as a four-year fractal) that we have seen historically, but really if you really look more closely at what is happening, it continues to be much safer to just keep attempting to accumulate BTC in this range and surely be prepared for more down, but also don't be surprised if more down does not come - which just means that you should have been sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP... because at some point, we might not be coming back to these prices (which kind of proves out the s-curve exponential adoption aspect of bitcoin).

So the punchline of what I am trying to say here does accept that some people might want to play around with trying to figure out if the BTC price might go up or down from here, but in the end, seems very prudent for guys to continue to be accumulating BTC and have plans to accumulate BTC, even if the BTC price might have some more short-term downs before it actually goes up, and surely, there is no guarantee that bitcoin is going to go UP either, even if there does seem to be a lot of evidence of ongoing upwards pressures including the ability of guys to continue to have a decent asymmetric bet by merely continuing to accumulate BTC without even any need to employ leverage... and still possibly doing quite well by employing such ongoing BTC accumulation plans, if not end up getting rich because of their persistent BTC accumulating efforts.
 

Deepdiver

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Interesting BTC analysis by Casey Research:

The HTC Stock-to-Flow Ratio
The stock-to-flow (SF) ratio quantifies the hardness of an asset.

(I discussed the ratio in detail in this issue. If you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read it. It’s crucial to understanding the economics of Bitcoin.)

The “stock” part refers to the amount of something available, like current stockpiles. It’s the supply already mined. It’s available right away.

The “flow” part refers to the new supply added each year from production and other sources.

Stock / Flow = SF ratio = the number of years of new supply (flow) needed to equal the current supply (stock).

A high SF ratio means that the new supply is small relative to the existing supply.

A high SF ratio also indicates a hard asset. A low SF ratio indicates the opposite.

A low SF ratio means that the new supply (flow) can sway the market balance easily. If an annual supply of something is close to its current stock, the new supply will have a lot of power over the price of that commodity or asset.

Today, Bitcoin’s SF ratio is around 56, well above silver (4.7), and about equal to gold (58).

As Bitcoin’s supply growth continues to shrink, Bitcoin’s SF ratio will double gold’s in less than four years – and continue growing after that.

The SF ratio shows how Bitcoin will soon become the hardest money the world has ever known.

Takdeway:

If Bitcoin is going to compete with, and eventually, overtake government fiat currencies – and I think it has an excellent chance of doing that – then its market cap must grow substantially.

If Bitcoin’s market cap rises to that of gold’s, the price of a single Bitcoin would be worth $428,571.

If hyperbitcoinization happens, and Bitcoin’s market cap rises to that of all of fiat money, a single Bitcoin would be worth almost 2 million dollars – $1,904,762 to be exact.

(Remember, each Bitcoin can be divided into 100 million units called satoshis. In the event of hyperbitcoinization, each satoshi would be worth nearly two cents.)

With that perspective in mind, Bitcoin has incredible upside at current prices of around $9,723.

Moving towards hyperbitcoinization is not as far-fetched as it might seem.

Remember, right now, Bitcoin’s SF ratio indicates its hardness is roughly equal to that of gold. As Bitcoin’s supply growth is continuously decreasing, its hardness will double gold’s in less than four years, and only increase from there.

Further, it’s clear to me that Bitcoin is a superior form of money to government fiat currencies, which, of course, have no limit on how much can be printed. And Bitcoin’s market cap has already surpassed the monetary base of most countries.

I think this process will not only continue, but accelerate. That’s because governments around the world are printing unprecedented amounts of currency, especially in the wake of COVID-19.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Interesting BTC analysis by Casey Research:
[edited out]
hahahahahaha

Deepdiver. Long time no chat. You seem to be getting a wee bit more bullish about bitcoin... or at least your attached analysis seems to be getting a wee bit more bullish about bitcoin.

In years past, I remember several of your earlier analysis posts on the bitcoin topic (and in the bitcoin thread) that were a lot more bearish about bitcoin, so either you and/or your attached analyses are becoming a wee bit more bitcoin bullish.

Go figure? Is that a good sign? or maybe a reverse indicator? ;)
 

jordypip23

Pelican
Gold Member
Very fascinating video that features the supposed BTC creator "Satoshi Nakamoto" aka Craig Wright. From Patrick Bet-Davis's Valuetainment show:

 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
You couldn't pay me to watch a minute of Craig Wright talking. Absolute fraud.
Apparently the guy has some of my Gox coins.

Speaking of which. I got another email today from Fortress offering to buy my Mt Gox claim for 90% of the value. I haven't looked into if people who sell their Gox claims to Fortress loose out on some things, like whatever coins have been sold, BCH, BSV etc. And you obviously loose you claim to any coins that may be recovered from Craig Wright.

What would you do?
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Very fascinating video that features the supposed BTC creator "Satoshi Nakamoto" aka Craig Wright. From Patrick Bet-Davis's Valuetainment show:

[youtube]0JvDauIX5lg[/MEDIA]
Are you serious? That kind of shit is not appropriate for the Bitcoin thread.

There is no such thing as "supposed BTC creator" when it comes to fraudster, so you should not be wasting our time with that kind of nonsense, and if you, jordypip23, believe that there is anything interesting about a conman speaking baloney talk, then you might not really understand bitcoin, very well.

Maybe, jordypip23, you could explain to us why such video is even remotely interesting or how it might relate to bitcoin, except for some conman talking a bunch of nonsense like he has been doing for around 5 years or so while he has been coming out with more and more outrageous proclamations - that are not worthy of much more than perhaps cursory recognition in order to just debunk those proclamations. Don't get me wrong, I have seen a lot of bullshit from that twat over the years and even in recent times, so I cannot understand how anyone would believe that he has anything that is actually interesting to say.

You couldn't pay me to watch a minute of Craig Wright talking. Absolute fraud.
I have watched some of his bullshit from time to time, and surely it is painful... and maybe even worse than watching something from Roger Ver (which is close competition for barf-worthiness).

Apparently the guy has some of my Gox coins.
Are you for real? CSW is a fucking nitwit.

He proclaimed that he had control over a number of early BTC addresses that were holding large amounts of BTC, and for some reason he seemed to have proclaimed that he had possession of a Gox address that was suspected of having had been used in the stealing of Gox coins. I believe that the summarized version of that story is that he weaseled around with changing his story multiple times and various additional inconsistencies - with a kind of punchline that the Gox coins situation just shows that CSW is a lying retard rather than establishing that he might actually have possession of any of those coins.

As you may recall there was even further evidence after that GOX coins incident in which an early bitcoin miner (not craig) had shown ownership an additional 145 BTC addresses which would be around 7,250 coins (145 addresses x 50BTC) that Craig had proclaimed to have possession, and craig was shown to be a liar in regards to those addresses that he had proclaimed to have been his.

So, get out of here with any claim that craig has bitcoin's from either early BTC addresses or even Gox coins... that diptwat.

Speaking of which. I got another email today from Fortress offering to buy my Mt Gox claim for 90% of the value. I haven't looked into if people who sell their Gox claims to Fortress loose out on some things, like whatever coins have been sold, BCH, BSV etc. And you obviously loose you claim to any coins that may be recovered from Craig Wright.

What would you do?
I am surprised anyone would be offering you 90% of value. I thought that they would be offering 25% of the value or something like that.... 90% is pretty good.

The tax consequences would likely be greater to get bought out, as compared if you just received your GOX coins, if they were to ever pay out the GOX coins.

I also thought that you would only be getting a fraction of your gox coins, anyhow, so if you had 100 coins in early 2014, maybe you would only receive 30% now, and I thought that the GOX trustee had already sold many of the forked coins.. so maybe you could show up some kind of current link or update. I have not seen much of anything in the past 6 months or more.
 

jordypip23

Pelican
Gold Member
Are you serious? That kind of shit is not appropriate for the Bitcoin thread.

There is no such thing as "supposed BTC creator" when it comes to fraudster, so you should not be wasting our time with that kind of nonsense, and if you, jordypip23, believe that there is anything interesting about a conman speaking baloney talk, then you might not really understand bitcoin, very well.

Maybe, jordypip23, you could explain to us why such video is even remotely interesting or how it might relate to bitcoin, except for some conman talking a bunch of nonsense like he has been doing for around 5 years or so while he has been coming out with more and more outrageous proclamations - that are not worthy of much more than perhaps cursory recognition in order to just debunk those proclamations. Don't get me wrong, I have seen a lot of bullshit from that twat over the years and even in recent times, so I cannot understand how anyone would believe that he has anything that is actually interesting to say.



I have watched some of his bullshit from time to time, and surely it is painful... and maybe even worse than watching something from Roger Ver (which is close competition for barf-worthiness).



Are you for real? CSW is a fucking nitwit.

He proclaimed that he had control over a number of early BTC addresses that were holding large amounts of BTC, and for some reason he seemed to have proclaimed that he had possession of a Gox address that was suspected of having had been used in the stealing of Gox coins. I believe that the summarized version of that story is that he weaseled around with changing his story multiple times and various additional inconsistencies - with a kind of punchline that the Gox coins situation just shows that CSW is a lying retard rather than establishing that he might actually have possession of any of those coins.

As you may recall there was even further evidence after that GOX coins incident in which an early bitcoin miner (not craig) had shown ownership an additional 145 BTC addresses which would be around 7,250 coins (145 addresses x 50BTC) that Craig had proclaimed to have possession, and craig was shown to be a liar in regards to those addresses that he had proclaimed to have been his.

So, get out of here with any claim that craig has bitcoin's from either early BTC addresses or even Gox coins... that diptwat.



I am surprised anyone would be offering you 90% of value. I thought that they would be offering 25% of the value or something like that.... 90% is pretty good.

The tax consequences would likely be greater to get bought out, as compared if you just received your GOX coins, if they were to ever pay out the GOX coins.

I also thought that you would only be getting a fraction of your gox coins, anyhow, so if you had 100 coins in early 2014, maybe you would only receive 30% now, and I thought that the GOX trustee had already sold many of the forked coins.. so maybe you could show up some kind of current link or update. I have not seen much of anything in the past 6 months or more.
LOL, don't shoot the messenger & maybe take a deep breath. I never said the the guy is verified to be legit, but Patrick Bet-David usually has interesting guests so I thought I'd leave it here as food for thought. If anything to start a debate since the guy CLAIMS he is Satoshi. I never claimed that he was. If anything I'm not sure what the guy's motives are if he's BS'ing.

Even if the guy is completely full of shit (which he very well might be), he did bring up a good point that BTC has often been used for criminal activities & really not much is done to curb it besides some random busts here & there. His points about morality and BTC I thought were interesting. Subjective, yes I know.
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
Are you for real? CSW is a fucking nitwit.
No. I was joking. Those fake addresses nailed the last shred of his credibility.

I am surprised anyone would be offering you 90% of value. I thought that they would be offering 25% of the value or something like that.... 90% is pretty good.

The tax consequences would likely be greater to get bought out, as compared if you just received your GOX coins, if they were to ever pay out the GOX coins.

I also thought that you would only be getting a fraction of your gox coins, anyhow, so if you had 100 coins in early 2014, maybe you would only receive 30% now, and I thought that the GOX trustee had already sold many of the forked coins.. so maybe you could show up some kind of current link or update. I have not seen much of anything in the past 6 months or more.
This is the message. I thought it seemed like a good deal. I think the only significant thing you would loose is the claim to the 85% of missing coins, which in my case is about $250,000.

July 20, 2020

Dear XXXXX,

The Mt Gox Trustee published a Civil Rehabilitation plan on March 24, 2020 which described potential future distributions for Mt Gox creditors. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the court subsequently delayed proceedings. The Trustee’s plan could take several years before making a distribution to creditors who lost BTC on Mt Gox, because the Trustee’s plan does not commit to a BTC distribution until CoinLab’s litigation is resolved. The Japanese court system was closed due to Covid-19, and our attorneys estimate it may take 3-5 more years for CoinLab’s litigation to reach a conclusion (including appeals).

Due to these delays, many creditors have expressed a desire to get back their lost BTC. We are now offering a way for creditors to sell us their claim and receive BTC as payment. The amount of BTC you will receive is based on the amount of BTC the Trustee is currently holding for your account:

  • The Trustee currently holds 141,686 BTC out of the 950,000 which were originally lost. This is a recovery ratio of 14.91% (click here to view full report from Mt Gox Trustee: (https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20191001_report.pdf)
  • You originally lost XXX BTC, which means the Trustee is holding XXX BTC for your account to eventually be distributed after the Coinlab litigation is resolved.
  • We are offering to buy your claim for 90% of this amount, or XXX BTC. We can make payment in BTC to your wallet address at a reputable exchange of your choice.
  • If you prefer to be paid in cash, your purchase price would be $XXX, payable in your local fiat currency via wire transfer to your bank account.
This offer to buy your claim and make payment of XXX BTC or $XXX is valid only until our funding is fully allocated. Please respond as soon as possible if you would like to receive a claim transfer contract.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
LOL, don't shoot the messenger & maybe take a deep breath.
Maybe I am repeating myself, but you seem to have pretty bad judgement if you believe that Craig Wright or his claim to being Satoshi or his other various lies are interesting in any kind of way, except as perhaps being an ongoing attack against bitcoin, a clown show, or a means to show how gullible regular people can be in terms of getting distracted in that direction.

So, frequently in order to put Craig Wright or any of his various shenanigans in context it is good to use various denigrations such as referring him to as a conman or his project that was a fork of bcash (another scam) as a shitcoin, a scam or some other negative descriptor. That is not emotionalism, but instead contextualizing so that guys might be less likely to get diverted into believing that the project, the guy or the rest of the characters promoting either the project or the guy is actually legit.

I never said the the guy is verified to be legit, but Patrick Bet-David usually has interesting guests so I thought I'd leave it here as food for thought.
It seems to show that Patrick might have his own issues if he believes CSW is an interesting guest, and o.k. I was initially with redbeard in terms of NOT wanting to waste my time watching diptwat Craig, but since you want to persist with this topic, I did decide to watch a bit of the video in order to at least get some ideas about where it might go or to see Patrick's interviewing approach and style.

Right from the start, Patrick says that he does not know much of anything about bitcoin, and yes, Patrick seems to be quite skeptical of Craig's claims of being Satoshi, but Patrick still allows Craig to ramble on and on and on, with the presumption that he might be Satoshi.. which makes the whole interview to be a kind of fantasylandia exploration of thoughts from Craig that are disingenuous spins, and Patrick is hardly in a position to challenge with any kind of meaning. Yes.. I watched 11 minutes of the 100minute interview, and I had enough of it... It's a waste of time, even if Patrick does seem to genuinely want to attempt to probe into matters, the whole listening to Craig ramble on with an obviously false presumption, that he is Satoshi, is just ridiculous. I have seen diptwat craig already in too many interviews doing the same thing, and it remains a waste of time to continue. Maybe there might be some guys that want to continue with listening to that nonsense if they had not heard Craig previously, and maybe they could report back if there might be anything of value beyond the thoughts of one fraudster, scammer, in the next 90 minutes.. really doubtful..

If anything to start a debate since the guy CLAIMS he is Satoshi. I never claimed that he was.
Fair enough that you never claimed that he is satoshi, but it still seems to largely be a distraction to the topic of this thread. He has been putting himself out there, and has engaged in all kinds of related drama for more than 5 years. There is plenty of evidence that he is not satoshi, that he serially lies and he continues to be involved in increased shenanigans that he attempts to relate to bitcoin or to get attention about bitcoin in a variety of ways, including an ongoing lawsuit in florida involving the topic of his claim to be satoshi... It's not that many of us have not repetitively been over exposed to the ongoing nonsense of his claims and people considering the matter to be "interesting" when it is not really interesting, unless you are examining it as an ongoing attention-seeking scam that he likely cannot figure out how to get out of the continued doubling down baloney.

If anything I'm not sure what the guy's motives are if he's BS'ing.
So, if you don't know, then you don't know the situation well enough, and it is NOT really a topic of this thread to explore either the various corrupt motives of a scammer, or even how he might be trapped in his various projects by his ongoing scam.. Sure, it is complicated, but it is not helping to attempt to discuss those matters here... maybe you want to start a thread on the topic? or go to some already existing thread regarding altcoions (shitcoins) and their various pumpenings.

Even if the guy is completely full of shit (which he very well might be), he did bring up a good point that BTC has often been used for criminal activities & really not much is done to curb it besides some random busts here & there. His points about morality and BTC I thought were interesting. Subjective, yes I know.
Those ideas have been addressed in this thread for years. This thread has been in existence since early 2013, and again, so what? regarding what a scammer has to say about bitcoin in order to pump his coin or to perpetuate his own fraud and fraud attempts? The dollar is used for criminal activities, and any kind of asset class that potentially has value can be used for a variety of use cases, including criminal activities. there is no novelty or anything interesting that he is raising such topic.

Actually, part of bitcoin's value proposition does relate to some of the difficulties or differences in trying to regulate bitcoin or to control it, and bitcoin was specifically made to be able to resist governments ability to attack it or to control it.. so that kind of system has its advantages and disadvantages and lends some needs to reconsider various kinds of dynamics in the world. Sure, the government and various other traditional financial legacy system have attempted to attack bitcoin, and probably if there were some way to shut bitcoin down, it would have already happened.. and the attacks on bitcoin are not likely to be over, but bitcoin was designed to be quite censorship resistant, and that is part of its amazingness, including watching how it continues to survive world-wide, increase use cases, largely continue with its original mission of decentralized value storage and transfer that no one can do shit about... and sure some people have been caught through bitcoin or using bitcoin for nefarious activities, yet is remains quite difficult to attack bitcoin itself - or maybe to make developers, miners, or bitcoin users as criminal would be a very difficult objective.. and probably would push bitcoin more underground, when actually the opposite is happening with bitcoin continuing to grow and to have more and more network effects that cause it to be more and more difficult to stop.

Anyhow, again, who gives any shits what a fraudster, such as Craig Wright believes about bitcoin or its purposes or whatever. Craig largely got involved in bitcoin in the 2014/2015 time frame and has been increasingly trying to proclaim that he is Satoshi, and if you really believe it is an interesting topic you should start a thread, even though there are already a lot of threads and discussion boards already beating the shit out of the topic, so there would not really be a shortage of materials, even if there might be considerable reluctancy for people to really want to take the topic seriously in terms of actually adding value or at least the various better ways of spending your time figuring out bitcoin rather than various scams around bitcoin or shitcoins that are designed around bitcoin.. which are just distractions to this particular thread... and/or other threads that try to stay more focused on bitcoin related topics.. rather than the shitcoins or the various thousands of snake oils (and accompanying snake oil salesmen).
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
No. I was joking. Those fake addresses nailed the last shred of his credibility.
Fair enough. I thought that it was already pretty clear that he was not satoshi, soon after he came onto the scene in 2014/2015 and even later when he tried to prove himself to Gavin Andresen as if he were Satoshi, and Craig could not even provide any valid signature from any of the early blocks while engaging in obvious fraud to attempt to prove that he was satoshi when there is actually a more simple way in bitcoin to actually provide signatures, which would be more than simple and clear for anyone who was actually satoshi to be able to accomplish.

This is the message. I thought it seemed like a good deal. I think the only significant thing you would loose is the claim to the 85% of missing coins, which in my case is about $250,000.
O.k. thanks for that clarification, including the attached message that you provided in your above-linked post.

Sure, there is some speculation about what you would actually receive if you continue to wait for GOX, and sure there is a decent amount of speculation regarding how long it will take to get paid.

At the same time, the organization that is offering to pay you 90% on what it speculates to be your payout is also trying to spin the matter in such a way that sounds as if they are being generous to offer you 90% of what they anticipate that you would be getting from GOX to get paid now, rather than either to wait and see or to be left with the uncertainty of waiting for many more years or other SNAFUs that could occur along the way. Of course, you have not had access to your GOX coins since early 2014, so we are more than 6.5 years into this lack of access to your value matter.

Such company is offering you, and of course, they are taking a risk too, that they might not get the coins, but they are willing to make that bet, and companies do not tend to be mortal, so there are likely different timeline calculations that a company is going to make, but they still likely consider whatever they are offering to be a good investment for them to be making.. and I believe quite a few people have taken them up on their offer (or some other variation of their offer, because their offer is likely evolving somewhat too).

Anyhow, you already know that there is probably no objectively correct answer, but surely your own timeline would likely way fairly heavily into such consideration about whether to take the deal that is being offered or not, as well as some of the other factors related to your personal finances. One thing that causes me to believe that you might want to just continue to wait it out is because you have largely already been waiting it out for more than 6.5 years, and you have likely already considered and rejected variations of such buying out of your GOX claims offer. Have times changed? Perhaps? Yeah, the GOX courts and all of that do seem to ongoingly come up with new and new and new reasons to delay paying out of the claims... so wait a couple of more years, and they may come up with some new excuses to delay..

I, personally, would likely just let the matter ride, but I already have other coins. Your own other investments might cause you to consider the whole matter differently from someone like me, too. But, yeah, of course, you already know that if you cash out of the coins, then you likely could use the value to buy more BTC or just buy more BTC with part of the paying off of the claim and use the other part of the payout for other investments or consumption, too. You surely have more flexibility when you actually hold the value rather than continuing to wait for various third party processes to play out... if ever.

There are likely some other RVF guys who have GOX coins tied up and maybe some of the RVF guys have already sold their GOX claims?
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
Having looked into it further, it seems the offer is not 90%. It's about 55%. There is a calculator here:

https://www.ozcoin.com.au/index.php

That is assuming you get something like the actual share of assets on hand.

The way I am looking at it the sum of money offered by Fortress is not that significant to me. I don't have anything to do with it - it's about 10% of the value of a house I would like to buy - it would just get tucked away. If the full amount was paid out it would get tucked away.

The main thing I'd want it for is leveraging it to make a bet in a very obvious point, like the recent buying opportunity in March.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Having looked into it further, it seems the offer is not 90%. It's about 55%. There is a calculator here:

https://www.ozcoin.com.au/index.php

That is assuming you get something like the actual share of assets on hand.

The way I am looking at it the sum of money offered by Fortress is not that significant to me. I don't have anything to do with it - it's about 10% of the value of a house I would like to buy - it would just get tucked away. If the full amount was paid out it would get tucked away.

The main thing I'd want it for is leveraging it to make a bet in a very obvious point, like the recent buying opportunity in March.
Well, at least you got a better estimation regarding how much you would actually end up getting back, and surely, 55% of value is much smaller than 90% of value and much harder to make up the difference, if you were hoping that you would be able to put to work, whatever value that you receive, in order to come close to equalling what you might end up getting upon actually receiving the coins.

And, of course, like I already mentioned, and you seem to understand, there is a certain amount of premium of having control over the value because of uncertainties in the timeline regarding when you might otherwise receive such full value from the GOX trustee (and associated GOX proceedings).

Surely, you do seem to be seriously weighing this matter of taking the value early, and surely, the re-calculation of the amount is going to cause you more hesitation - even if you might still end up pulling the trigger, even when 55% of value should well be quite a bit less tempting than 90% of value, but there is also an expression that a bird in hand is better than two in the bush... even though my personal decision (hypothetical as it might be) would be to wait, and the receipt of only 55% would be a further motivation, even though I understand how it might be tempting for guys weighing the matter from their own present value perspective, and you gework do not seem incapable of properly measuring your own present value perspective.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Worth sharing.


Basically if DXY continues its dip.....expect fireworks.
Of course, there are no absolutes in bitcoin in terms of price prediction movements and price dynamics predictions, but surely planb has a good model with great co-integration of past data that allows for a seemingly decent predictive model that continues to still be probabilistic in terms of longer term trends rather than anything near absolute in any kind of meaningful way in saying that we absolutely are going to the places that the model suggest to be probabilistically likely... in contrast to other scenarios that would suggest that we are not going there. hahahahahaha
 
Top