The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

It is worth also keeping in mind that BTC prices of $25k, $50k, $100k, etc. are much more realistic when taking into account the big inflation hit USD is going to take in the next few years.

Inflation is much less unpredictable than bitcoin.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
What's behind the current surge? Is this another case of whales pumping the market before crashing it again?
Normal BTC price movement in line with various BTC price pressures that are anticipated in various price prediction models, such as: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles.

Of course, short term BTC price can go in either direction, but if you consider the various theories, BTC prices had corrected in 2018, and largely began a recovery in early 2019.

If you are striving to find more short-term explanations, a lot of such explanations are going to be incomplete, unless they account for ongoingly strong underlying BTC fundamentals, and of course, BTC price can correct or crash at any time, even though many folks appreciate that "the trend is your friend."

Do your own research

your milage may vary

this is not financial advice

;)
 

Stats

Robin
I think we are going to see a lot of green coming up. likely new ath in 2020,
I see the possibility of BTC market cap surpassing the USD in the next decade.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
I think we are going to see a lot of green coming up. likely new ath in 2020,
I see the possibility of BTC market cap surpassing the USD in the next decade.
That seems a bit overly bullish about BTC, Stats - even though I would not rule out the possibilities that you are describing.

In my thinking, it is likely NOT healthy to plan your investment(s) around scenarios that seem difficult (or long-shots) to achieve, even if they might end up turning out (as a most bullish scenario).

By the way, Stats, are you taking actions in regards to your investing in BTC based on your beliefs? Are you hedging for other possible outcomes too, in the event that you seemingly more bullish scenario does not play out?
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
yes I have baught btc about 30 times since march. And yes I have a very diversified portfolio
great.

you likely realize that I am not opposed to anything that you are saying because I have been largely stacking sats since late 2013.. and so my overall financial position would profit greatly if something close to your outlined BTC price performance scenario were to play out.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
or it could be the millions of locked-down people playing with government handout money.
I don't know about that.

Bitcoin is not only within a kind of wave that likely causes it to continue to be bullish, and I am not sure that regular plebs are actually getting into bitcoin rather than continuing to be distracted by misinformation and nonsense and the mere perils of the difficulties and uncertainties of the virus situation and the economic problems, including likely supply chain concerns and even ongoing political and civil unrest concerns..

Bitcoin does provide some avenues to hedge for people who are able to see it, and I doubt that very many people are really becoming as enlightened as your comment seems to suggest... including the likelihood that we have very low levels of BTC adoption, and maybe BTC will start to really come into regular people consciousness during our next BTC price run, including going past our previous ATH.. and perhaps going beyond those previous ATH price points.

In other words, probably FOMO does not really start to kick in until after passing the previous ATH and thereafter.. and I am not sure how far the FOMO is going to propel BTC, whether it will get taken into a more conservative $50k to $100k range in the coming 1-2 years or maybe a more adventurous price range that was suggested in the Moon video above (burner's post) of $100k to $400k perhaps in the next year or year and a half.

I understand that there have been proclamations of data (including assertions from Coinbase, and maybe even Square) that they were witnessing increased number of $1,200 BTC purchases in the circa April 15 (stimulus check receipt time-frame), and I am going to take that kind of information with a considerable grain of salt concerning supposed enlightenment of the masses in the direction of being more BTC aware, even though we do have a considerable amount of additional data regarding irresponsible monetary policy that is causing more sound monies to go up (such as PMs) which will also likely cause more and more people to gravitate into bitcoin and become more receptive to the sound money aspects of bitcoin, including that it is likely a better investment than PMs because it is more scarce, portable, verifiable, divisible and even has some immutability (censorship resistance), self-control (holding and managing of holdings) and lower cost aspects to it, too.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Some smaller miners might already be selling out of their pre halving stockpile.
Sure... some smaller miners might also be turning off their mining equipment because they are finding it to be more difficult to be profitable based on the halvening and the increased hashrate.

See this linked website for current hashrate (difficulty) and previous difficulty adjustments.

Yesterday's difficulty adjustment had gone down by 2.87% for the upcoming 2 weeks, but two weeks previously, the difficulty had gone up nearly 10%, so in the whole scheme of things hashrate has been making some relatively small adjustments here and there, but nothing really outrageous or radical which tends to show that both the halvening and the subsequent difficulty adjustments have been pressing on with a considerable degree of success - and lack of any meaningful glitches... just as bitcoin is intended with lots of hashing power continuing to be aimed in its direction on an ongoing and steadily increasing direction.


However, when the BTC price goes up, there are some miners who are inspired to continue mining because their hashing power has become profitable, again.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
You lost me when you wrote peoplekind instead of the correct term mankind.
haahahaha

Peoplekind.. I did not catch that the first time. That's hilarious.

By the way, regarding the overall point that bitcoin has already made a contribution, that is a good one.

Regarding not being able to put the genie back in the bottle, that is a good one.

For example, if there were to be some kind of strategic and coordinated governments attack on bitcoin, and it appeared that bitcoin was losing that battle, then it seems that another bitcoin would develop, evolve, or get used.. and maybe that could be part of the use case of shitcoins to have those various possible alternative vehicles?

But even in the USA, there seems to be little to no interest in actually attempting any kind of meaningful attack on bitcoin, and the recent decision to allow traditional banks to be able to legally custody bitcoin, that seems to be a regulatory action in the opposite direction to suggest that it is o.k. to have bitcoins.

Surely, guys should still consider that there are problems for large numbers of bitcoin users to be custodying their bitcoins with third party, so guys should be taking measures to make sure that they are NOT holding large amounts of their bitcoins with third parties and have various means of self-custodying their bitcoins... at least bug-out bag amounts, and perhaps even greater than bug-out bag amounts. Bitcoin is not like gold in the sense that guys are going to have a difficult as fuck time to store and/or transport vast quantities of gold, but bitcoin does not have those kinds of physicality limitations that could be a pretty BIG hinderance in certain hypothetical situations that some guys could end up facing in a kind of bugging-out scenario.
 
Anyone got any experience of how to buy BTC on Paxful SAFELY...

I'm not inviting horror stories (I know they're out there) but I'm in a location where Paxful is the only platform that operates...

But it's pretty sketchy...

Made a small purchase yesterday, and it's a step of faith to send funds and hope all's good.

Any (helpful) tips to avoid being scammed?
 

Guy80

Pigeon
haahahaha

Peoplekind.. I did not catch that the first time. That's hilarious.

By the way, regarding the overall point that bitcoin has already made a contribution, that is a good one.

Regarding not being able to put the genie back in the bottle, that is a good one.

For example, if there were to be some kind of strategic and coordinated governments attack on bitcoin, and it appeared that bitcoin was losing that battle, then it seems that another bitcoin would develop, evolve, or get used.. and maybe that could be part of the use case of shitcoins to have those various possible alternative vehicles?

But even in the USA, there seems to be little to no interest in actually attempting any kind of meaningful attack on bitcoin, and the recent decision to allow traditional banks to be able to legally custody bitcoin, that seems to be a regulatory action in the opposite direction to suggest that it is o.k. to have bitcoins.

Surely, guys should still consider that there are problems for large numbers of bitcoin users to be custodying their bitcoins with third party, so guys should be taking measures to make sure that they are NOT holding large amounts of their bitcoins with third parties and have various means of self-custodying their bitcoins... at least bug-out bag amounts, and perhaps even greater than bug-out bag amounts. Bitcoin is not like gold in the sense that guys are going to have a difficult as fuck time to store and/or transport vast quantities of gold, but bitcoin does not have those kinds of physicality limitations that could be a pretty BIG hinderance in certain hypothetical situations that some guys could end up facing in a kind of bugging-out scenario.
"Glacier" protocol comes to mind, although it reads like an academic paper (ever lab vulnerability is consider real-world and needs protection...bit too hollywood)
 
Top