The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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I doubt that I need to analyze Blockfi or discuss those kinds of services.
If you are so hot for such a service, and you believe that you and other guys can advantage from such services, then employ it to the extent that you believe that it could be useful to you.
I have gotten free money over the years and also money that has very low interest rates(and costs) and then used that same money to earn on higher rate products, so I know that there can be ways to use that kind of leverage to your advantage and make money off of it. I do have problems when the leveraging becomes too complicated or too many risks are being taken and if you either loose the principle or you run into extra costs because some of the money that you were investing to ended up being a loss than a gain.. so it can become quite problematic to take risky actions with low interest or even free money that is on the table and end up unable to pay it back.
A similar thing can happen on seemingly pure bitcoin products. I am not sure about the exact blockfi terms, but let's say that if you lock up 5 BTC, you can borrow the equivalent of 1 BTC and then use that money to buy more BTC, but if the price drops 50%, then maybe your collateral requirements might raise, and if you do not pay back the loan, you get screwed and if you do not provide more collateral you are screwed. So sure, the way that you use the money does matter in the end in terms of if you might be taking too much risk with all the discretion that you end up having over something and then end up gambling with it.
My whole system is way more conservative based on my own situation, and my current thesis has a built in presumption in the 10% to 12% average price appreciation for bitcoin over the long term. Surely traditional financial management systems presume that you could engage in a 4% per year withdrawal rate and still be largely living off the interest rather than the principle of your investments. Another conservative component that I started to use is the 208-week moving average in order to figure out possible extreme BTC price bottoms which is currently at about $7,200 and it is currently rising a couple hundred dollars per month. Anyhow, the point is that if you build your principle up to a certain point over time, then you can start to live off of the appreciation of the asset and not give any shits about putting money at risk, and right now there is about a 250% premium on BTC sold - not that I am even saying to cash out any BTC but there is that option of not worrying and not giving any fucks once a certain amount of principle is reached....
But, yes, I understand also that some guys feel that they do not have enough bitcoin and they are going to end up engaging in potentially risky behaviors to build their bitcoin stash or maybe from my perspective I believe some guys are greedy or never feel that they can be satisfied. If they have 10 BTC, then they want to build to 100BTC or some other amount, and they may well be able to figure out ways to make the 10BTC work for them in terms of their overall security and cushion and all of that. Of course, there still can be a case for blockfi type systems so long as guys are not putting too much of their bitcoin at risk under the terms of getting the purportedly "free money" that involves putting some of their bitcoin up for collateral.
Honestly, in order of possibility:
#1 - Government
Legislative attacks are riskier than people estimate. Right now BTC is not that much of a threat to government money. Once they realize what's actually going on, they will come after it hard. It doesn't take much for them to ban running a node, or require you to get a state license to sell BTC (check out BitLicense in NY).
This is why BTC needs to become more antifragile. More nodes, less custodial services, more FOSS solutions that are censorship resistant.
Take a look at what happened with the 6102 order for gold. It's not inconceivable that they would outright ban ownership of BTC. In that case, I hope you didn't buy on Coinbase, because they'll be knocking on your door first.
Read this:
#2 - $5 Wrench
As BTC becomes more popular I think petty criminals will start to recognize the tools. Hardware wallets, 2FA, etc. If someone breaks into your house and sees a Ledger, that's easy money if they know what they're doing and can get you to cough up the PIN. It's probably best for us to focus on protecting our homes, especially as civil unrest continues.
#3 - Cybercriminals, phishing, etc.
It doesn't seem that much of an issue (yet) for the average Bitcoiner. Most attacks are carried against exchanges, and not individuals, but it's important to be defensive online.
Sim porting is a pretty’s big issue and 2FA and other measures can help to alleviate some of the issues, but there are some services that use SMS as their 2nd factor so that could be a problem if your phone gets ported, and also security through obscurity can be a pretty decent OPsec matter too. Sometimes you might have people in your life that have really loose lips and they find out that you have bitcoin and they are telling everyone. Hopefully none of the people they tell are bad people, but you never know, so sometimes it might be helpful to transmit a bit of disinformation to the loose lipped people in your life, and there are some other loose lipped people who can just be reminded to tighten up their lips a bit - even though you cannot really stop them from providing "little secrets" when you are not around. "you know JJG started buying bitcoin in 2013 and he has more than 2 bitcoins".. blah blah blah... you don't want loose lipped or potentially loose lipped people saying those kinds of things that could end up leaking to NOT good people.
SIM-swapping is not a risk if you don't have any exchange accounts
Great point regarding "loose lips sink ships." I know we all want to help the people around us, and for some there might be a sense of pride telling people about your Bitcoin holdings or experience. However I've learned it's best to keep that information to a privileged circle, on a need-to-know basis. There is really not much to benefit by flapping your lips about BTC. The only exception in my mind is a trusted friend who is not only going to keep his mouth shut, but will also use the information you divulge.
Does anybodybhere own a Trezor wallet? I'm kind of divided between Ledger and Trezor and would like your thoughts.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Sounds Alarm over Cryptocurrency Rule that Could Empower Financial Censors
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is sounding the alarm over a proposed regulation from the Department of the Treasury that would clamp down on the use of independent cryptocurrency wallets and potentially strengthen financial censorship.
1. Trying to ban non exchange held wallets seems like a ridiculous/wasted effort. I can see the grope though, as it would give them a basis to charge someone if caught after the fact or without any actual evidence of wrongdoing. Something like a 'drug paraphenalia' charge.
2. The 'you can only use crypto if you use it via a bank/exchange' does seem very par for the course as well.
I own a Ledger and am pretty happy with the product. I can answer any questions you may have about it.
I prefer the Trezor to the ledger - seems easier to use and less bugs with the software... even though Ledger claims to have fixed its issues, I have still found it a bit more cumbersome than the trezor... between the trezor one and the model T, it is probably worth it to spend more money on the Model T, especially if you are considering the ability to add additional password and also the multi-signature capabilities seem to be more advance on the model T...
People applaud the cold card as being the best in terms of security, but I do not have personal experience with the cold card, yet.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Sounds Alarm over Cryptocurrency Rule that Could Empower Financial Censors
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is sounding the alarm over a proposed regulation from the Department of the Treasury that would clamp down on the use of independent cryptocurrency wallets and potentially strengthen financial censorship.www.breitbart.com
1. Trying to ban non exchange held wallets seems like a ridiculous/wasted effort. I can see the grope though, as it would give them a basis to charge someone if caught after the fact or without any actual evidence of wrongdoing. Something like a 'drug paraphenalia' charge.
2. The 'you can only use crypto if you use it via a bank/exchange' does seem very par for the course as well.
Have fun staying poor if you are going to let some of these bullshit propositions deter you from getting and/or maintaining an adequate and meaningful bitcoin stake in order to hedge against the dollar and other dilution practices that are currently going on with fiat including that gold is likely going to get eaten up by bitcoin, too.
I have a Ledger and don't expect to be sticking with them. The app (at least for me) is very buggy. I often can't click on buttons. It won't update and I have to re-download a new version and set it up again. Ledger were pioneers, but it seems others have built on what they have done and left Ledger behind.
If you do buy a Ledger you make sure you get the more expensive one. The cheaper one only allows you to install three apps (max), e.g. Bitcoin, Ether and Tron. If you also want EOS, XRP, Stellar you have to uninstall an app to make room for it. It keeps the wallets, but you can't do anything with them.
Also for a lot of coins they claim to support (i.e. you can have a wallet) their app does not allow you to do anything with them. You have to use another app, which is often cumbersome to do anything with the coins.
I don't expect to be buying another device from them again.
I have just picked up a couple of SafePals, which are backed by Binance. Some criticise Binance, but one thing you can say is that when they come on board things start to move very quickly. They haven't arrived yet so I can't give a review.
But looks easier to use, better support for coins, cheaper and more secure.
@Deepdiver posted one called Ngrave, which looks like it should be good, but is not available yet.
BTC has just pipped $23K. There is some very high rates on fiat lending at the moment. I have some lent out on Binance, over the last month it's at about 4-5% interest, i.e. about 50% / year. Bullish. Last time rates were this high was the 2017 bubble.
So long as there is not an averse event this must go up to $40K. Based on the last 2017 bubble I am looking at $40K-160K.
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Dream on.
Mikeyd03
Woodpecker
Hey, Pete. I'm a big fan (really!)! However, just because you created an account during your "beard phase" doesn't mean you're an "actual" mountaineer.
See you at $40k!
Hey, Pete. I'm a big fan (really!)! However, just because you created an account during your "beard phase" doesn't mean you're an "actual" mountaineer.
See you at $40k!
If he is an Ashkenazi Jew, sounds more like Bobby Fischer.
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Well, hopefully you, personally, are not going to get caught on the wrongside of such a trade, either by holding too much gold or not holding enough bitcoin.
Bitcoin remains a superior store of value.. and superior in other regards too.. such as the portability, verifiability, divisibility, ability to self-custody upon demand and with few transaction costs, and some other factors that are becoming more and more apparent for those who are paying attention, and both normies and even institutions are going to figure that out, and we are finding more and more evidence that seems to support that many are actually already figuring it out..
Furthermore, the fact of the matter remains that bitcoin is like a baby in terms of adoption and is on in the very early stages of an exponential s-curve adoption phase which gives it speculation superiority over Gold (and people and probably moreso institutions are noticing that too)... and sure, maybe gold "should be the shit," but the facts of the matter is that it is not "the shit" and bitcoin is better as I have already outlined... so maybe I should console in advance: "Sorry for your loss."
Yes.. exactly.. Real estate is being used as a storage of value, and there are even some examples in which that might be all that it is being used for... so there seems to be some inefficiencies that are built into the current practices of people and institutions to use their money that way, and bitcoin has a kind of built in incentive system that allows it to be way the hell more efficient in the storage of value aspect because of its lack of physicality or lack of utility such as in industrial kinds of uses.
What happens to Bitcoin in a theoretical situation when every computer on the planet is cut off the internet?
Gold will always keep value because it is a tangible asset, as long as we live in a material world it will stay that way.
Gold will always keep value because it is a tangible asset, as long as we live in a material world it will stay that way.
I was also considering the NGrave, has anyone pre-ordered or done more research into it? Is your take still the same, Deepdiver?
I only see BTC going down towards 20k one more time. Next stop is 30k, I say by the end of January 2021. I'm on record as saying it eclipses 50k by summer 2021. The first week or two in 2021 is when I think some profit taking occurs, and at that time I'll keep adding.
I only see BTC going down towards 20k one more time. Next stop is 30k, I say by the end of January 2021. I'm on record as saying it eclipses 50k by summer 2021. The first week or two in 2021 is when I think some profit taking occurs, and at that time I'll keep adding.
What happens to checking accounts, equities, 401k's, and bonds in a theoretical situation when every computer on the planet is cut off the internet?
Unless 100% of your net worth is in gold you're opening yourself up to this risk.
What happens to gold in a world where courts don't function?