The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

[Louis IX]

Hey Louis,

I see that you edited your post after I had posted mine.. or at least I did not see the edits until after I had posted, so here is my supplemental response to your edits.



Sure, in principle that sounds correct, but first, bitcoin is not merely speculation, even though speculation has historically been a decently sized part of bitcoin, but it is not the ONLY thing going on in bitcoin. so your facts about bitcoin seem to be a wee bit off, Louis... which cause you to come to the wrong conclusions, even though your logic might be acceptable in this instance.



That sounds like a pretty lame reason. Yes, you are correct that in some jurisdictions, your being taxed would trigger upon cashing out.

So let's say that you had $1,000 in 2015, and you were considering investing in Bitcoin or keeping the value in dollars and earning 6% (presuming you could get 6% somewhere).. Bitcoin's prices were around $250 at that time (which would be 4 bitcoins), so you could save your value in dollars and earn 6% per year which would end up resulting in nearly $1,400 after 6 years, or you could place it in bitcoin, and 6 years later your 4 bitcoins would be worth close to $80k (assuming that BTC reaches $20k at some point).

What a bad problem to have. Your gains on the bitcoin would be $79k, so you have to pay taxes on those gains. Seems like you have not thought this through very well in terms of your still being ahead, even though you ended up paying taxes on your profits. But hey, whatever, you can come to whatever choice that you want based on your measurements of actual/potential costs and benefits.



You do not necessarily need to hide.. if you are talking about paying taxes.

Sure there are other reasons to want privacy, and there may also be other ways of transacting privately, too.. but I doubt that any of those should inspire guys to fail and refuse to invest in bitcoin and to try to learn about whether bitcoin might provide guys more options or NOT... maybe guys will conclude differently on these points, but would be a shame if guys just write off bitcoin based to some lame and inadequate considerations of the matter.



I suppose.. if that is what you choose, then so be it. You choose $400 profits versus $79k profits because you feel that you cannot deal with being questioned or taxed on your profits? Actually you don't even need to be questioned.. just pay the taxes.. and no one will question you, right?

Hey, I am not saying that there are NOT difficulties in this world, and even having a lot of money is not necessarily easy, and surely hiring consultants and accountants could be complicated too, but sometimes it is necessary to consult or even have someone to make sure that the papers are correct.. so guys may well vary, also, to the extent that they do their own papers or they hire the assistance of others in regards to some of these matters.

I took your points on board. As stated in another topic , I have injected 100 EUR at the beginning of the month.
I withdrew something like 9 EUR yesterday and got paid , and today I did withdraw 30 EUR , but my withdrawal was rejected twice. How can I seriously take BTC if there are withdrawal rejected for 30 EUR on a "known" platform like Binance ? I even sent my passport . That 's why I doubt about being able to put 79k (to take your example) in my bank account without problems. I am nto even talking about taxation. But it sounds to me too good to be true to be effectively putting the profits back in bank without hassle. It seems easier to buy something , to transfer bitcoin to someone else who would give you cash (or something else) in exchange , etc... See what I mean ?

 

[Louis IX]

C'mon man... we all know whatever happens, cash ain't gonna win.

Good to luck to remove cash in countries with low banking rate and high level of corruption.
When 90% of the population or the money comes from diaspora money (in most cases from Western Union/Moneygram etc) , well organized enough to never raise a red flag , teaming up in family/friends/communauty to send money to various locations etc , or from various sorts of traffics , + local corruption , I don't see how cash can effectively be banned without causing a major turmoil in terms of political and economical stability.

Oh and by the way , this is at least half of the countries i nthe world !
Cash to be banned will surely be a risk in the main 30/40 economies in the world or restricted in a way that it will be useless in the West - but will remain its preponderant influence for what we wrongly call "the third world"

 

[Louis IX]

Are you also anti-cash? Or pro central planning? Just curious.

I am pro-cash , not sure what you mean with central planning .
Cash offers freedom and is anonymous. I am ok to limit high transactions in cash in order to keep track of what could possibly be criminal money/money laundering , but I believe the use of cash for "small" amounts ( relative where you live but lets say 3k to 5k for the USA) and bank wires for big amounts should suffice and there is no need for credit and/or debit card or digital money like Bitcoin.

I know for a fact that in some former communist countries pensions are still paid in cash at the post office , my mother-in-law for instance has never had a bank account in her life and she isn't dead.

I think crypto and its technology will ultimately be used against us and our freedom , but unfortunately cannot prove it due to my lack of technical understanding of blockchain and technologies used for crypto. I can just smell the danger , nothing is free in this world and the BTC "performance" sounds to me like a giant scam who will one day be exposed . But I hope for everyone involved in crypto that I am wrong.

 

[Mountaineer]

What happens to gold in a world where courts don't function?

I asked a serious question. Can the blockchain be reset if no computer is connected?

 

[JayJuanGee]

What happens to Bitcoin in a theoretical situation when every computer on the planet is cut off the internet?

Gold will always keep value because it is a tangible asset, as long as we live in a material world it will stay that way.

It seems to me that the punchline is that the most prudent of investments do not put large allocation of value into scenarios that have slim ass chances of playing out. Of course, we are not necessarily going to agree upon what the odds for various "not-very-likely" scenarios to play out. I might put such scenario that you outlined as less than 1% and you might attribute 20% or higher to such a scenario, and I would conclude that you are way over allocated for such an outrageously not likely scenario, yet in the end, you are free to chose your allocations and even conclude within your own reasons how much probabilities to assign to various scenarios that would have to playout for your investment in gold to NOT be eaten up by bitcoin, as I already outlined my ideas behind that. Ultimately people who have been fixed on gold have already been getting quite screwed, and I expect them likely to continue to get screwed (and even surprised by how a lot of this bitcoin internet magic money plays out.. and as already mentioned.. they are free to make their choices in that regard.

I was also considering the NGrave, has anyone pre-ordered or done more research into it? Is your take still the same, Deepdiver?

I only see BTC going down towards 20k one more time. Next stop is 30k, I say by the end of January 2021. I'm on record as saying it eclipses 50k by summer 2021. The first week or two in 2021 is when I think some profit taking occurs, and at that time I'll keep adding.

Fair enough on your ideas of various waves, so long as you are not too strictly attached to such ideas. Of course, it is good to have some tentative theories (loosely held).

I took your points on board. As stated in another topic , I have injected 100 EUR at the beginning of the month.
I withdrew something like 9 EUR yesterday and got paid , and today I did withdraw 30 EUR , but my withdrawal was rejected twice. How can I seriously take BTC if there are withdrawal rejected for 30 EUR on a "known" platform like Binance ? I even sent my passport .

You can do what you like in terms of the extent to which you "take bitcoin seriously." Binance is not bitcoin.

That 's why I doubt about being able to put 79k (to take your example) in my bank account without problems. I am nto even talking about taxation. But it sounds to me too good to be true to be effectively putting the profits back in bank without hassle.

People have been able to do take profits in dollars in a variety of ways, so sure there might be some challenges, but I doubt that such challenges would necessarily be a reason not to invest into BTC, even if you personally have arrived at such conclusion.

It seems easier to buy something , to transfer bitcoin to someone else who would give you cash (or something else) in exchange , etc... See what I mean ?

Surely liquidation avenues have changed through the years, so I am not going to completely deny that sometimes there can be liquidation challenges. One of my aggravations came from changes in Local Bitcoin policies in 2018 and 2019 that dried up a lot of options for people, including me. It can be good to establish a variety of liquidation avenues and test them out from time to time and even use their services from time to time so that you know that your various liquidation avenues work.

I asked a serious question. Can the blockchain be reset if no computer is connected?

Guys here are not necessarily going to know the answers to the most dire of scenarios that you might outline Mountaineer, but there are a variety of ways in which the blockchain and the ledger is being kept... I do not claim to be technical enough to know the most extreme of examples that might happen in an Armageddon-like (or would it be a mad-max-like?) scenario.

 

[Tactician]

"What happens when Nuclear War breaks out? Will your Bitcoin be safe then??!"

So we've gone from "Lack of adoption" to "Miner capitulation" to "Governments will ban it" to "All computers shut off forever"

Sounds like an endorsement to me!

There are potential threats such as Quantum Computing or creeping KYC/AML regulations (fuss about centralized custody or the 'travel rule'), but let's keep things realistic Ok?

Anyway, I'm being a bit of a dick. To answer your question, if there are enough intact hard drives with a fairly up-to-date blockchain, participants could reach a consensus & continue from there. All but the most recent transactions (within ~10 minutes of mass network failure) would likely be recorded so there wouldn't be much potential for double spend.

If all the hard drives running a Bitcoin node are wiped, then you'd have to restart, but you'd also have much bigger problems like dealing with the asteroid bombardment/gamma ray burst/massive coronal mass ejection etc. that caused this mess.

 

[Palo Cristi]

What are the opinions to off the grid cashing out scenarios? (((BANKS)))

With so much effort into new tokens and or YouTube personalities why hasn’t there been a major focus on how to take your gains off the internet?

 

[Mountaineer]

 

[Palo Cristi]

More of the same from our good friend in Okayama. He’s still a Leaf though who suffers fromTDS.

What are your options if you want to cash out within 90 days to buy a property, camper or an airplane?

 

[Coja Petrus Uscan]

@Louis IX - Where are you trying to withdraw to? The sums you mention are small and would be liable to get eaten up in international transaction fees. For international wires you shouldn't really be moving less than $1,000. Otherwise it's best to use a systems you can get cheaper rates on, like TransferWise.

You can withdraw crypto to TransferWise, but it's against their TOS to send to crypto purchasing outlets.

You just need to find a solid route for Albania, which will leave limited options. If you still have strong enough ties to France you could leverage that to get a crypto-linked debit card. I would recommend Crypto.com. Then you can just use their card in Albania.

Crypto is not the issue here. I have employees in your neghbouring country, Serbia. Their government is having a big crackdown on foreign remittances/freelancers. People there are now worried of any means, like Payonner cards, Western Union and so on. So from now on I will pay them in either Bitcoin (which they will cash out at an ATM) or I will drop cash off with them in person. The Bitcoin ATM is going to cream 6%, but that is a lot better than the 50% the corrupt government wants.

For me, I would always prefer to accept and send funds in crypto.

 

[Coja Petrus Uscan]

What are your options if you want to cash out within 90 days to buy a property, camper or an airplane?

If you live in a highly regulated economy, like The US, you'd need to, provide a source of funds, that would be something like:

1) pay slips, real estate sale, inheritance proof, dividends
2) showing purchases you made of crypto
3) showing withdrawal of crypto

I don't think they are that thorough. They will usually take, say 3-6 months pay slips as proof of a legit income. It's just a formality. They want to see something to tick a box and move things through. You can even do this stuff with forged documents. I regularly have to forge utility bills as being a nomad I don't have any.

If you live somewhere reasonable in such regards, like Serbia, Thailand, Dubai then you don't have to provide source of funds. You just need the funds in your account.

I bought a house in one of those countries. Pulled all the money into the country with Western Union, two visits to a lawyer, one to a notary, handed all the money to the owner in cash. Complete. No real estate agents, no audits, no scrutiny.

You could also buy real estate with crypto. There are a few sites that list properties.

 

[Cervantes]

I asked a serious question. Can the blockchain be reset if no computer is connected?

Then the block chain updates grind to halt. No transactions can happen.

If hard copies of the blockchain are preserved there is hope for the system to be restarted. But in such a situation (global war so bad it shuts down the internet, and most computers destroyed) then probably most people will have lost their crypto private keys such that the number of coins in the system that are tradable is too small for Bitcoin to be a viable currency. Likely people would just restart a new blockchain from scratch.

If most keys are not lost - e.g. temporary outage - then the network just restarts and continues from there.

My point though is that I don't see a possible future where the internet doesn't function, but law enforcement to protect physical assets is still working - more likely law enforcement fails first. But in the (super unlikely) mad max scenario both are likely to fail around the same time.

If you're planning for that situation the only currency will be the ability to farm and defend some land, which will mean being part of a group of at least tens of men with guns on land that isn't particularly desirable to larger groups.

 

[Hypno]

Cryptos may be due for a pause here, its getting overextended.

 

[Robert High Hawk]

Cryptos may be due for a pause here, its getting overextended.

Excuse my ignorance, but what scale is that graph using and what is it measuring?

 

[Tactician]

No worries
The chart shows the price of Bitcoin divided by the price of Gold. Btc is around $23500 & Gold is around $1880, so the current ratio is ~12.5.

 

[M'bare]

Novice here. What are you guys using and recommending for using crypto to actually pay for things? Or are you buy crypto to be able to convert it into dollars?

I see on page 460 there's a new crypto "wallet." Are there other things out there that you can use to buy stuff -- your day to day stuff using bitcoin?

I have a coinbase account at the moment. What are you guys using and recommending from experience?

 

[Robert High Hawk]

No worries
The chart shows the price of Bitcoin divided by the price of Gold. Btc is around $23500 & Gold is around $1880, so the current ratio is ~12.5.

Ah ok much thanks.

So when Hypno said that BTC may be getting over extended, he's saying that based on this Gold to Bitcoin ratio. So the assumption there is that the two prices "de-coupling" is a bad sign for bitcoin because relative to it's closest old school equivalent, it's getting quite expensive?

I guess this means that either Gold is due for a price hike, or BTC is due for a correction, or that Gold is going to become irrelevant as a traditional store of value.

I got into bitcoin a bit last year, and I'm pretty heavily involved (relative to my total income and savings). I think these big price moves have been great for my overall portfolio, but it feels incredibly surreal, I just can't believe this kind of increase since last year, and a big part of me is anxious that it will all end up popping. That's the emotional side of my brain, not the analytical, so I don't follow up on its impulse and sell everything. Still - very surreal feeling.

 

[powertower]

Novice here. What are you guys using and recommending for using crypto to actually pay for things? Or are you buy crypto to be able to convert it into dollars?

I see on page 460 there's a new crypto "wallet." Are there other things out there that you can use to buy stuff -- your day to day stuff using bitcoin?

I have a coinbase account at the moment. What are you guys using and recommending from experience?

I also use coinbase. I use binance to buy any alts I want that aren't available on coinbase (haven't bough alts apart from Chainlink since 2017/2018).

I don't use BTC to buy anything, I see BTC as more of digital gold/value store than as a day to day currency. That's kind of what the whole 2017 fight between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash was, to determine if Bitcoin was going to be for day to day use or long term store of value. The community chose value store.

 

[redbeard]

Novice here. What are you guys using and recommending for using crypto to actually pay for things? Or are you buy crypto to be able to convert it into dollars?

I see on page 460 there's a new crypto "wallet." Are there other things out there that you can use to buy stuff -- your day to day stuff using bitcoin?

I have a coinbase account at the moment. What are you guys using and recommending from experience?

Samourai Wallet is the only option, unless you want merchants and Coinbase to monitor your transactions.

 

[Tactician]

So when Hypno said that BTC may be getting over extended, he's saying that based on this Gold to Bitcoin ratio. So the assumption there is that the two prices "de-coupling" is a bad sign for bitcoin because relative to it's closest old school equivalent, it's getting quite expensive?

I guess this means that either Gold is due for a price hike, or BTC is due for a correction, or that Gold is going to become irrelevant as a traditional store of value.

I don't think a Btc/Gold ratio chart is a good judge of overextension, especially using a yearly timeframe. Rather, I view it as a good sign that something has changed & Btc is being adopted by more & larger players.

Generally, it's good to consider the context of whatever charts you're looking at, especially on higher timeframes.

Bitcoin is still 'new' in traditional finance & has a tiny market cap compared to Gold. However, the average $ purchase of Bitcoin & the average transaction value has gone up a ton this year, suggesting bigger players are entering this space. A bunch of respectable names in finance have endorsed Btc & companies with big balance sheets, such as Microstrategy, are using Btc as a store of value. It's also becoming easier for the average person to slap a few dollars into Btc via stuff like PayPal (though few here will recommend using this). As such, Btc is increasingly moving from a 'risky' & 'fringe' asset into something accepted & accessible by the mainstream.

Further, we have the DXY at ~90 & an absolutely massive expansion of the money supply which feeds in perfectly to the store of value vs inflation narrative.

I don't have all the answers, but I think Bitcoin's price shouldn't be considered as an overextension based on the past few years, but should be looked at as the beginnings of a transition to mainstream acceptance. As such, the Btc/Gold chart might shoot up much much higher.