The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

Cervantes

Woodpecker
Woman
Just said the same thing to my dad who may finally get in. I thought I was late at 20, and am up over 100%. Just bought more at 50 & more ETH at 1300 & 1900....

it’s due for some sort of pullback...but when the heck will that come? It looks more and more stable each day, with more and more mainstream apps adopting bitcoin as a payment option (probably bc even if they think it’s a scheme, they’ll be able to ride the wave in volume, which is far better than accepting Fiat)
Eth is a good buy too. It spiked at like $1200 in the crypto bubble a few years ago. And its now at like $1900. BTC is at 2.5x the same peak. If Eth hit the same multiple to the previous peak it would be at $3k.
 

Talus

Sparrow
I like "hedges" (not that this truly is) that can also work out both ways. As a gambler that's the only time one should hedge (lock profit and double win). In all seriousness, I'm looking for the run-up alongside bitcoin since I'm more in the camp of maximalists, but don't call myself that - understanding that different roles for different cryptos is likely and with complementarity. With the smaller players currently, the BTC momentum can take them to much higher % gains than BTC from this point, of course with the significant added risk.
Bitcoin's gains will probably out pass everything else in the market, aside from the ICO anomoly, like Aave, or chainlink. But both of those have already stagnated after their initial booms. Once BTC hits a tipping point, it might stop providing momentum for altcoins, and just start stealing their market cap. I think this is already happening with a lot of coins that aren't even close to their 2017 ATHs.

Also, although I find mw protocol very interesting, it might not even be necessary once the LN develops out. You'll probably be able to just choose a LN channel for payments that automatically coinjoins on entry or exit. This will open a can of worms for BTC regulation. It will be interesting to see what kind of merger will occur over the next decade between financial regulation and the Bitcoin network.
 

Blade Runner

Pelican
Orthodox
Once BTC hits a tipping point, it might stop providing momentum for altcoins, and just start stealing their market cap. I think this is already happening with a lot of coins that aren't even close to their 2017 ATHs.
Along the adoption curve, this should be around 2025, in the year after the next halving, no? I was looking for those curves with estimates on the progression through the 2020s, and couldn't find it like I once did on twitter, but do you think the mid adoption phase occurs around 2023, and then starts to really lessen the "investment" opportunities of it? It would suggest that that is the point of approaching stabilization of price, technology, on/off ramping, altcoin natural histories becoming more obvious, etc.
 

Meraki

Sparrow
Seems the second the stim is passed, we can expect another run up.

im very close to just betting the barn on BTC, holding for the next month, then cashing out about 75% of it.

I just did some math on what the potential was on restructuring my portfolio & trading & what it would cost to transition 45% minimum into BTC & ETH. Holding for a month, before cashing out and just keeping my original investment there.

im not going to pretend to at all understand crypto. And it worries me when BTC chart occasionally tracks the SPY... but what I do understand is that normies are seeing more & more articles about BTC in the press (good or bad) and when they finally crawl in or make their first 50$ payment or some high schooler puts his pizza money in and sees the balance read $40, we will be seeing a colossal wave of at least 15-20% in the immediate future.

the factoid that stood out most to me was Tesla, Apple, PayPal all actively embracing crypto as payment methods to try to get a piece of that pie. Any boomer logic argument of “it’s not legit“ basically needs to also disavow all their iPhones & Musk swag.
 

Blade Runner

Pelican
Orthodox
Just said the same thing to my dad who may finally get in. I thought I was late at 20, and am up over 100%. Just bought more at 50 & more ETH at 1300 & 1900....

it’s due for some sort of pullback...but when the heck will that come? It looks more and more stable each day, with more and more mainstream apps adopting bitcoin as a payment option (probably bc even if they think it’s a scheme, they’ll be able to ride the wave in volume, which is far better than accepting Fiat)
The only real pullback I see currently is when that AG/NY State suit against tether settles or comes close to settling later (within the next week? the AG puts out a statement) . And I only see that as another buying opportunity. Just like we had a pull back to 29 from 40, I could see a drop from 50 to low 40s. Totally guessing here, perhaps nothing will happen because other forces are too strong to worry anyone and adoption/supply shock is an absolute mammoth.
 

Meraki

Sparrow
Yeah. Reading this thread has really converted me to full confidence in crypto. There is zero point in worrying about being late.

it’s going to go up. Too many deep fundamentals. There is money to be made. But perhaps not as exponential as it was a few months ago.

regardless, it seems the problem psychologically will be dealing with greed, and accepting a ”safer” play of cashing out after another 10, 20, 30k ? And then converting that into hard assets. Not fomoing until you’re alone, broke and getting your anus swabbed in a Covid ward
 

Talus

Sparrow
Along the adoption curve, this should be around 2025, in the year after the next halving, no?
It's hard to say, but we know publically that that is what Michael Saylor believes. And his quick success is convincing a lot of other big corporate players of the same thing.
I was looking for those curves with estimates on the progression through the 2020s, and couldn't find it like I once did on twitter, but do you think the mid adoption phase occurs around 2023, and then starts to really lessen the "investment" opportunities of it?
I think the Stock 2 Flow model is still accurate in predicting the cycles, and I don't think hyper-bitcoinization occurs until the next cycle (2024-2025). This bull run will be similar to the previous, except it will feel bigger since the players are bigger. When the price drops we'll see corporate FUD instead the previous retailer fud, which will seem even more dramatic.

As far as investment opportunities, we're watching the window close for low/middle class people's to enter in and achieve big gains. Yes, there will always be gains, but it's going to be hard for a blue collar worker to acquire a life changing amount of btc after this cycle.

And the next window to close will be the wild one. It will be the white collar workers (millionaires), of which there is roughly 30 million of them in the world. You can do the math applying that to BTC's total supply.
It would suggest that that(mid adoption 2023) is the point of approaching stabilization of price, technology, on/off ramping, altcoin natural histories becoming more obvious, etc.
Your guess is as good as mine on when there will be price stabilization. When you look at the total wealth in the world, and potential of Bitcoin replacing a lot of it, all bets are off.


When that visualization came out, btc was at 9k. Visually, and comparatively, it hasn't even grown that much yet.
 

Maciano

Kingfisher
BTC bulls come across as fanboys to me. They seem to enjoy “dunking” on its critics. Why is that? Check out the replies to Peter Schiff’s Bitcoin tweets to see some examples.

I think the price is fueled almost entirely by emotional buying and speculation.

Schiff is dunking on bitcoiners, it’s the other way around. Bitcoiners respond in kind.

They’re right to do so because Schiff is a terrible investor and an even worse market commentator in general (predicts depressions every year that never happen).

Schiff is a good entrepreneur though, he made millions. Still, he got rich selling gold; the worst of investment of the last decades besides fiat
 
I would gladly buy, if BTCs price would go down for once. I have some cash stashed in prepared for this moment. But no way I am going to buy when its price is that high.
You cannot really assess it like this.
Of course it is skyhigh compared to summer 2020.
But ask yourself this. Is it high now for the years to come?
Maybe not.
So get in now with 1/3, 1/3 in a month or two or after a pullback and another 1/3 randomly.
 

Zanardi

Woodpecker
Orthodox
What allocation ranges are you guys hitting?

Im at 27% btc and 5.5% combined eth/uni/stx.

I got in at the low in March, but played around with it too much and missed out on some gains overall. But still up big.

75% bitcoin, 25% Decentraland. I want to convert Decentraland into bitcoin once its price go down to an enough low of an amount. I also have some liquid cash waiting for more bitcoin purchase.

Buy low, sell high.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member
What allocation ranges are you guys hitting?

Im at 27% btc and 5.5% combined eth/uni/stx.

I'm heading towards 70% crypto.

In 2019 I made X in 12 months.
In 2020 I made X in 6 months.
In 2021 I made X in 6 weeks.

This is a warning. There are so many signs of mania, but they are only in the early phases. One guy I know is celebrating how the little guy is making thousands from Elon Musk "saying five words". He is giving investment advice with 2 years of XP, constantly patting himself on the back and telling people how they should have listened to him as he celebrates going to the moon. I was recommending people buy in March 20 at $5K. No takers, because no noise. Some bought in at about $20K and others now interested at $50K. Leftists who rage about capitalism asking which hardware wallet they should buy. Big money is being pulled in at elevated prices. GameStop squeeze leaders were financially illiterate. Stocks pushing higher against the backdrop of a papered over greatest recession. A new SPAC listing called Just Another SPAC. The entire financial world is overheating to an extent never seen before. I am expecting the usual cycle leading to a crash around the end of the year. With the financial insanity a pivot to commodities looks to be set up.

Schiff is dunking on bitcoiners, it’s the other way around. Bitcoiners respond in kind.

They’re right to do so because Schiff is a terrible investor and an even worse market commentator in general (predicts depressions every year that never happen).

A broken investment guru is right once a decade or so. Schiff is good on fundamentals, but like many commentators is blinded by ideology. Schiff wants a giant 1000% bubble blown up on the back of gold by central banks. But yet criticises the people blowing their own 1500% bubble on the back of crypto.

75% bitcoin, 25% Decentraland. I want to convert Decentraland into bitcoin once its price go down to an enough low of an amount. I also have some liquid cash waiting for more bitcoin purchase.

Buy low, sell high.

MANA may be a good hold. DeFi has made a lot of moves and its difficult to pick any new movers from that sector. I picked many 1st and 2nd tier projects that have boomed. Not hit a 3rd tier. NFTs look like they could be the next move. Not explored much. But I've been holding ENJ, which is the largest cap since early 2020. RARI looks to be the next mover. Bought DOKI as an outlier.
 
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I'm heading towards 70% crypto.

In 2019 I made X in 12 months.
In 2020 I made X in 6 months.
In 2021 I made X in 6 weeks.

This is a warning. There are so many signs of mania, but they are only in the early phases. One guy I know is celebrating how the little guy is making thousands from Elon Musk "saying five words". He is giving investment advice with 2 years of XP, constantly patting himself on the back and telling people how they should have listened to him as he celebrates going to the moon. I was recommending people buy in March 20 at $5K. No takers, because no noise. Some bought in at about $20K and others now interested at $50K. Leftists who rage about capitalism asking which hardware wallet they should buy. Big money is being pulled in at elevated prices. GameStop squeeze leaders were financially illiterate. Stocks pushing higher against the backdrop of a papered over greatest recession. A new SPAC listing called Just Another SPAC. The entire financial world is overheating to an extent never seen before. I am expecting the usual cycle leading to a crash around the end of the year. With the financial insanity a pivot to commodities looks to be set up.



A broken investment guru is right once a decade or so. Schiff is good on fundamentals, but like many commentators is blinded by ideology. Schiff wants a giant 1000% bubble blown up on the back of gold by central banks. But yet criticises the people blowing their own 1500% bubble on the back of crypto.



MANA may be a good hold. DeFi has made a lot of moves and its difficult to pick any new movers from that sector. I picked many 1st and 2nd tier projects that have boomed. Not hit a 3rd tier. NFTs look like they could be the next move. Not explored much. But I've been holding ENJ, which is the largest cap since early 2020. RARI looks to be the next mover. Bought DOKI as an outlier.
Lefties wanna get a pile of it as well as they see huge gains and money. Btc is la revolucion
 

SilentCal

Robin
Schiff is dunking on bitcoiners, it’s the other way around. Bitcoiners respond in kind.

They’re right to do so because Schiff is a terrible investor and an even worse market commentator in general (predicts depressions every year that never happen).

Schiff is a good entrepreneur though, he made millions. Still, he got rich selling gold; the worst of investment of the last decades besides fiat
Gold is not an investment, it’s an inflation hedge. And Schiff was one of the only ones to predict 2008. Sounds like you don’t listen to his show. Going out on a limb here.
 

doodydota

Pigeon
Therefore Bitcoin and crypto will eat the lunch of gold and precious metals until something big happens like quantum computers can break sha256 encryption.

I don't think "quantum computers" is a threat at all. If a malicious take-over happens, the bitcoin community will show the middlefinger and fork the blockchain leaving the attacker hanging. Another possibility is to preemtivly move away from pure from "prove of work" to adopt some kind of "prove of stake" hybrid. Way to many smart people involved to let this happen.
 

BURNΞR

Pelican
No Monero is tough to work with. You will not detect inflation bugs, which is completely a no go for any amount of serious wealth.
The best is Horizen. They have open ledger but you can send privately as well.

Again, you can use BTC anonymously if you know how / are determined etc. as good as you can use cash.
If you are watched by fbi and you handle cash it is also not private.

You could be right. This is actually my main concern with XMR. I know the technical people are calling it FUD for the longest time but it's hard to verify supply other than "trusting the cryptography", whatever that means. Also the price and chart looks more like XRP (Ripple) to me than BTC despite the parabolic adoption which I believe is true based on the data. If you are wrong and there is no supply exploit bug then XMR is a real deal, something like buying Bitcoin when it was $200.
 
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