The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

aynrus

Pelican
Gold is hardly an inflation hedge ever.
Look at long-term inflation-adjusted gold charts (had posted them earlier): gold steadily goes down over a long period (over decades). Even government CPI-adjusted chart shows loss of gold value over long term (and CPI is usually glossed over), real inflation-adjusted is much worse.

There had been intervals of gold price spiking, when gold serves as speculative asset, as it beats inflation during the run, but after peaking it comes down back to below previous inflation-adjusted low, pretty much. If someone buys gold on high they never recover their money in inflation-adjusted terms; even if they wait until next high - because the next high tends to be a lower high in that downtrend.

Gold is extreme/emergency/shtf hedge, but even that is questionable considering past gold confiscation in the US or high crime outside the US where a regular person often can't safely store significant amounts of gold (and bank deposits boxes are not really safe outside of 1st world jurisdictions). Storing and transporting physical gold will require expenses and risk for most people and risk-adjusted return is going to be especially low - and paper gold has a risk of default.

Gold can be hyperinflation hedge - because hyperinflation usually lasts short periods not reaching over decade - in this case any loss of value of gold due to downturn in macro commodity cycle or other macro reasons (if it happens in parallel) will be negligible compared to potential hyperinflation losses (however when hyperinflation happens, crime spikes a lot and gold starts to carry increased risk. Holding US treasury bonds has a risk of government default, storing physical gold brings a risk of losing your life in collapse/hyperinflation situation/home invasion)
 
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kel

Ostrich
Has anyone bought BTC from one of those kiosks in stores? How do they work? Do you feed it cash or do you have to use a credit card? Is there a limit on the amount you can deposit/buy per day? Is there a KYC questionnaire before you can use it? I noticed one in a gas station not that far from me the other day and am going to go back to investigate further but I thought I would ask here first.
All with have some limit for selling bitcoin (to the machine, if they accept it), usually under $1000. I've seen some with no posted limit for buying (presumably at some point the machine would be full of bills and couldn't accept any more). Many have cameras on the machine and take your picture, so remember, MASKS WORK, TWO WEEKS TO FLATTEN THE CURVE!!!!!!1!1!!!11!
 

HKBhusal

Sparrow
All with have some limit for selling bitcoin (to the machine, if they accept it), usually under $1000. I've seen some with no posted limit for buying (presumably at some point the machine would be full of bills and couldn't accept any more). Many have cameras on the machine and take your picture, so remember, MASKS WORK, TWO WEEKS TO FLATTEN THE CURVE!!!!!!1!1!!!11!
Is the KYC thing writ large for all BTC ATMs now? Or are there brands that don't use it still?
 

HKBhusal

Sparrow
Does anyone have their exit plan ready and would share it with us. Might warrant its own thread.
Yes sir, I concur.

I would also be interested in learning what strategy experienced crypto investors might be applying for crypto-related commodities in today's modern world, in terms of an exit plan in response to EO 6102, with all the cat and mouse stuff going on between the gov't and decentralized investors.
 
Does anyone have their exit plan ready and would share it with us. Might warrant its own thread.
I might sell a quarter when BTC hits 100K, another quarter when it hits 500K, and the remainder when it's 1MIL. If that works out I'll be a millionaire for taking a fairly small risk in this volatile asset.

I think everybody should know how to spend this large sum of money as well as how they react to the highs and lows of this asset. I also think everybody needs to be good with security, me personally speaking I need to download wallets instead of hold most of my assets on a broker.

I think a lot of people mistakenly believe you have to obtain crypto at full face value as well as have to sell all of your shares or individual shares. That's what stops them from taking a chance on a potentially life changing asset.

Depending on how America turns out over the next 4-5 years I might reinvest my gains for real estate, charity, education, stocks, P2P lending, dual citizenship, and one fun trip once a year.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Does anyone have their exit plan ready and would share it with us. Might warrant its own thread.
This is really tough, since we don't know whether BTC will fulfill the 25% chance or so that it becomes global money and medium of exchange. In that case, never sell, and just collect the interest from staking and lending your BTC for others.

Really need to also know what's going on with the dollar - we may still have a deflationary bust if the printing stops temporarily but long term the whole thing is toast, are you sure you want to exchange BTC for dying fiat? Perhaps would be better to think in terms of rotating into other assets (gold, stocks, real estate, etc) rather than selling for cash and sitting on it.
 

Palo Cristi

Pigeon
Orthodox
Does anyone have their exit plan ready and would share it with us. Might warrant its own thread.
I’ve asked in the past with no luck and yes, it should be it’s own thread.

It seams most are just calculating their future virtual wealth without leveraging their gains or at least transferring a percentage to hard assets.

A few websites that have recently caught my attention:




Since I’m not an expert, I would welcome an opinion on how to borrow cash against your BTC or at least gain up to 10% interest by lending back. The advantage it seems is that there are no capital gains on loans and if BTC continues to rise one should make out financially well.

Disclaimer, I’m not interested in a DeFi lock-up despite owning some of the tokens.

Good luck finding any of the thousands of crypto YouTube channels describing anything related to the above mentioned.
 
Good luck finding any of the thousands of crypto YouTube channels describing anything related to the above mentioned.

I don't subscribe to any crypto or stock channels because everybody is making 100X BUY THIS NOW OR YOU WILL MISS OUT style videos that I can't tell who's the real deal or not. You can only make so many videos talking about how great/terrible bitcoin is before it's stale.

With that being said if anybody wants to suggest a youtube channel that transcends the thousands of financial channel please do share.
 
Michael Burry is calling for a hyperinflation collapse in the near future. I got worried so I plan to buy a years worth of canned food, pasta and rice when I get the chance. Bitcoin will probably go to 100k but what's the point if everything else costs a fortune too.

Worth noting that the guy who called the timing of the market crash this year, the COVID peak, and the start of riots all almost perfectly is predicting food shortages to hit in 2022 and recommends having twelve months on hand.

I'm in the process of moving but when you two are warning about food shortages I'll be following suit. I hope I'm not too late at about the 5 month mark. I'll be stocking up on canned food, pasta, rice, cheeses, beans, fruits to dry, and milk I'll be converting into homemade ice cream.

For those with kids noodles can be a fun project to make at home.
 

30WK

Chicken
I was on the forum the day this thread was started. I regret not buying bitcoin when members suggested I buy a few of them when they were at the $600 mark. They were right, I was wrong. However, I think there is a strong possibility that bitcoin is a dark arts ponzi scheme built to crash. I advise everyone here to cash in now and use your gains to buy raw land with timber and swift flowing creeks (for hydro electric).
 

SilentCal

Robin
I am surprised to see so much enthusiasm for BTC. I guess Peter Schiff is not popular here either, but oh well.

My own concerns with it have to do with the "qualities" that make it bad as money:

1) People are (almost always) buying BTC because they want to sell it later at a higher price, which is not how people treat money.
2) Reason #1 makes the price of BTC extremely volatile, because it moves according to speculative impulses, which are very hard to predict.
3) Nothing is currently priced in BTC, but instead is priced in dollars with BTC equivalents.
4) Things can't generally be priced in BTC (can you imagine seeing a 0.000089 BTC price for a hot dog on a menu?).
5) BTC is just one of many cryptos, and there is really an infinite supply of crypto coins, when all other coins are taken into account.
6) BTC is dependent on a network of computers, which is a really fragile foundation in my opinion.
7) BTC is difficult for a normal person to use and store.

Money is supposed to be an instrument that stores the wealth gained by labor and trade, which can be reliably exchanged for goods at any point in the lifetime of the one who earned it. Bitcoins can be easily lost, and whoever buys them has no clue what they'll be worth in 1, 10, or 50 years.

The volatility, fragility and difficulty of use of BTC make it just plain bad money. Claiming that it will go up and up in the future has nothing to do with how good of a currency it is, and currency is what BTC was supposed to be in the first place. So it's price must be driven by something else other than its fittingness as a currency. If that's the case, it's extremely risky to hold.
 
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