Does anyone have their exit plan ready and would share it with us. Might warrant its own thread.
I am meaning to set up a hacky 'reporting suite' that will pull up a number of pertinent charts.
Here are some key cues I am looking for.
1) MACD + RSI on 1W candles
Many people have been projecting BTC will move in-line with its previous bull-cycle moves. And so far they have been right. There are some very solid indicators you could have bought BTC on over the last three+ cycles. Picking the sell point is more difficult. If you put all your money into BTC when it was ~ RSI 30 in 1W you would have picked key bottoms that occur one or two times per cycle.
In the above chart, see the red mark, showing RSI grating high, against ~90. The early bull of late '16 and early '17 saw peaks 26 Dec 2016 and 27 Feb 2017. We have a similar movement now for 28 Dec 2020 and 15 Feb 2021. Without the Elon intervention it would probably have been even more of a mirror of 16/17.
If we follow 16/17, and we have been very closely up to this point, expect a month of sideways and then a big move up. My confidence is high we are now in a bear trap. This current move is traced from September to February. It would be very erratic for this to be a few months bull market and crash. I am confident it will go on to the end of the year. We will see the above pattern in the RSI duplicated, with it having multiple grazes up against 90 RSI.
2) Google Trends
We are currently around 12X of the search volume this time in 2017; and a little over half the Dec 2017 peak. The sell-point is pretty clear here. By Christmas Day 2017 the search volumes were catapulting down. As you can see, ETH searches continue to rise, as with its price. ETH reached its then ATH on 13 Jan 2017 - along with the search volume. BTC reached it's then ATH on 17 Dec 2017 - along with its search volume.
I am looking for volumes to reach all time highs in a parabolic move.
3) Exchange etc. traffic
This chart shows a the Alexa traffic rank for Binance.com. 1,000 = roughly the 1,000th most visited website on the internet. The chart is a three month average, up to late Jan 2018, when it switches to a one week average. The actual peak on daily traffic was around the ATH for BTC. Binance is now the
51st most visited website.
So while the search interest [retail, normies] is not that high, more crypto-minded people are more active.
4) Bitcoin Twitter
Source
Peaked on 12 Dec 2017; huge drop on 22 Dec 2017.
Activity is again at all time highs, from people embedded in crypto, retail yet to arrive en mass.
If we are in a bull-market, there is more to come.
Overview
As an exit I am looking at parabolic tops in these metrics, combined with my own gut-feeling with the level of mania, which is currently around 33/100. Thus, looking for a price of around $150,000 for BTC.
Cut Profits/Losses
When getting out you have two educated positions - cut your losses or cut your profits. If you cut your losses you sell after a crash begins. The issue is here it will crash very fast, like the cira 20% crash yesterday. If you cut your profits it is much easier to mistime your sell and loose unknown moves up. Expect a very big, sharp move up within hours for the peak. I am looking for $10,000 up in a few hours.
As we come into the final stretch I will be on my computer most of the time, up to my eyeballs in price alarms; and with price alarms set at night.
Then What?
There are some good points raised above about the integrity of the dollar, inflation; as well as other possibility for instability and a crackdown on crypto. These factors may affect my getting out strategy.
In 17/18, we first saw Bitcoin crash on 17 Dec 17, followed by a large bull in alts, which lasted for about a month. I anticipate the same. First I will sell absolutely everything, probably for stablecoins. Gold backed crypto is another option. I will asses the move for alts and may make a big reallocation back into whatever I think may have a good swan song. I will loan out the stablecoins on various platforms. In January 2018 the rate for lending USD was extremely high. It was 3% for three days on Bitfinex, e.g. $1,000,000 loaned out would have netted $90,000, just on those days; and maybe $150,000-200,000 on the month.
3% interest per day is a very good sign of mania. If you are still in at that point pull the ripcord! I will also allocate some small, but significant chunks to Bitcoin shorts and later alt shorts. I like FTX's 3X short BTCBEAR token, which will yield you roughly $3 for every $1 BTC goes down. The good thing about this is there is no risk of being margin called. The downside is the return is less than 3X over multiple days as it is re-balanced like long/short ETF, which causes the asset to terminally shrink. This is negligible over short periods. I will also add a few 5X, 10X shorts. After the first dump (maybe $150,000 to $100,000) I will close the shorts and open a 3X long to catch the bull-trap, before continuing long-burn shorts throughout the bear-market. Then when no one wants to buy, I will asses any buy back choice coins. If the top is ~$150,000, I expect this to be around $30,000 for 1 BTC, in about Jan 2022. The best entries for this cycle were Dec 2018, generally into Feb 2019; and Jan 2015, generally into Aug 2015.
This may change somewhat, depending on factors, i.e. if there is great turmoil in fiat and/or the economy it may be best to get out to gold backed coins. In 2018 there was one called Digix than rallied because it was or did operate a gold-backed token. I'll be looking out for any opportunities like those.
On the possibility of BTC flipping fiat. There is no sign of this at the moment. I will reconsider my plans if and when anything pertinent comes up.
