The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Top comments from a Bitcoin is terrorism hit-piece in The Bezos Post, Dec 2017.

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If you read MSM you will be wrong about everything o_O
 

aynrus

Pelican
I wrote "supporting crypto against the dollar empire." That means supporting a functioning market in crypto so it can be used as an alternative to the dollar in international trade. They may be limiting their own citizens from using crypto as a currency within Russia. But they are supporting it as an alternative to the dollar. Its the same position as the Chinese.

Actually, since Russia banned all crypto payments and does not consider it a legal payment medium (and prison time for non-disclosing the holdings is in the making too), the correct statement would be that Russia "supports" cryptos as a scam to destroy US dollar, and views them as nothing else. This sounds about right.
Yet, at the same time, Russia loves to invest in US bonds - and devaluation of US dollar would just lead to Russian holdings devalued, so sounds like a bit too contrarian strategy.
Max Keiser seems to be a hardcore scammer (not to mention it seems like he uses unknown - but strong - substances - just based on contents of his twitter), so no surprises he's on RT. They should just bring back Sergei Mavrodi, no one is better than him at pumping ponzis.

Any crypto, BTC for example, is allowed to be traded on exchanges (and thus retain big value) by the governments for now, as their fiat currencies aren't threatened yet. Once they're threatened, it'll be finita la commedia real quick. For now, cryptos are convenient for the government as they allow plebs to keep their illusions while the govs can collect taxes on trades.
 
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Personally, I think gold is really pretty to look at & I want to have a big pile of gold coins like a pirate or Scrooge McDuck.

I would be cautious about using gold as an investment vehicle because:
1. No technological progress i.e. it just sits there vs equities or "cryptos" that try to build use cases/value.
2. It has had 6000+ years to max out on global adoption, so there isn't much reason to expect it suddenly outperforms other assets.

That said, I am slowly building a collection of gold to do the Scrooge McDuck thing, but I do not consider this as a trade or investment.

I simply see comments like that tweet as dumb... from so many fundamental points silver is a very good investment.

Unless something else comes along to replace the need for silver in smart phones, electric cars, solar panels etc, or those items become obsolete, even that alone is a strong underlying factor.

Then you've got pending hyper inflation, scarcity (what, they're gonna start mining scrap heaps? All that silver in scrapped electronics is very probably GONE)

Ok, so he's saying it'll smoke silver and gold... maybe, let's see.

But that's not the tweet.
 

typtre

Robin
I was just thinking about how for years I've believed that the fiat currency system can't go on like this, but also thought there's no way to go back to the gold standard because of modern realities like online purchases and transactions that you can't really do with gold and silver coins. Then just now I realized that what we're seeing is essentially a modern-day return to the gold standard, with BTC taking the place of gold.

Probably not a novel idea or realization, but it literally just came together for me in my mind right now.

There are companies trying to make the modern-day return to the gold standard, but they have been essentially shut down by regulation. GoldMoney's idea was to have a credit card where every transaction was made in fiat but backed by the gold in the customers account in their vaults around the world. At the end of the month, gold would be withdrawn or deposited from their account according to their spending.

Another company is Kinesis, which I know little about, but I think they are trying something similar.

Anyway, the IRS and taxes and regulations and Big Money made it impossible for the everyday guy and everyday transactions to take place in gold while remaining profitable.

I’ve read two of his books, heard him talk for 15 years, I know what he’s about.

The amount of dumb shit coming from Schiff on stuff I know about (like bitcoin) makes me comfortable assuming he knows not much about other stuff he talks about.

And he constantly calls gold an investment, not a hedge.

My understanding is that he does not really call gold an investment. He is a bit lazy in his wording but he repeats himself often, and that to make money on gold "You should buy the miners, and not the metal. You should buy physical too of course, because the dollar is gonna crash, and then there will be no metal left to buy, but the miners is where the money is gonna be. And if you wanna speculate, sure, buy the juniors and exploration companies" (paraphrasing his millions of podcasts).

I am surprised to see so much enthusiasm for BTC. I guess Peter Schiff is not popular here either, but oh well.

6) BTC is dependent on a network of computers, which is a really fragile foundation in my opinion.

The volatility, fragility and difficulty of use of BTC make it just plain bad money. Claiming that it will go up and up in the future has nothing to do with how good of a currency it is, and currency is what BTC was supposed to be in the first place. So it's price must be driven by something else other than its fittingness as a currency. If that's the case, it's extremely risky to hold.

Everything is dependent on a computer today. Look what happened to the Fed yesterday.
Banks can also shut down for no apparent reason. "System crash", "cyberattack", "your opinion is wrong", "KYC discrepancy". Only your imagination sets the limit to what the Bank will tell us has suddenly failed.
Remember Greece? Withdrawal limits.

I see Bitcoin as an asset class with no intrinsic value. It is completely useless, but it is a place to park some of your wealth.

Long term though, I really wonder if Bitcoin is as decentralized as the cultists believe. With MasterCard endorsing it, Tesla purchasing it, and BlackRock scheming on the sidelines. As Penitent showed us:

Gripping interview with Kurt Wuckert. He goes into Bilderberg ties to Bitcoin. Not surprising.
 

SilentCal

Sparrow
There are no bitcoin ppl at gold threads. I wonder why...

Anyway thnx for the warning, guess we all didn’t see bitcoin being volatile the past decade

Sub-1T$ Bitcoin, that’s been in 12yr bull market is much more risky than $8-10T $ gold, that’s done nothing since GFC than disappoint. Makes sense.

Lets face it: gold holders thought gold would return as SoV and bitcoin stole the momentum. That’s why you’re here; the longer you wait before you give up, the less value will be left
Didn't expect a reply from you since you're not interested in my "gold cope."

Can't you see that you're making my point? You just admitted that BTC is highly volatile, which means it can't be a store of value. At best, it is a speculative instrument that's had large price increases recently.

Gold holders don't care that BTC passed it up in price, because all they want is for gold to appreciate in price at a normal pace, because they're not trying to speculate by holding it, but only to preserve the value that was there when they bought it. A store of value is not supposed to bring ANY real returns. It's just supposed to sit there and hold value, keep up with inflation, etc. Don't you see that?

Bitcoin CAN'T be a store of value and an investment that provides sky-high returns at the same time. They are mutually exclusive financial categories.
 

aynrus

Pelican
Except gold and silver do not appreciate or retain their value against inflation.

They're short-term speculative instruments only. They decline over time against inflation. If one enters at the bottom of the low, they can sell on high and do well as soon as they exited timely.

Seems like people don't adjust for inflation, so I have to re-post the charts again.
Gold adjusted for "real CPI"/real inflation based on ShadowStats data, which I find tends to be accurate (not fake government CPI which tends to be much lower than real consumer price inflation - they say it was only what, 1.4% in 2020? :D ).

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typtre

Robin

I just watched this one. I now remember this from back in the day but I paid it next to no attention then and subsequently memory-holed it.
Is BTC a part of the Great Reset, and BSV should be the real focus?

I imagine it may have already been discussed in the previous 400 thread pages.
 

aynrus

Pelican
To add, here's my chart which shows Comex gold contracts starting from 1976 to now (GC, barchart), plus GC divided by M2 money supply (orange line). Roughly, latter represents how much a chunk of gold is worth against a pool of existing USDs floating out there (I used M2 since M3 isn't maintained anymore). What is tells me personally:

- in 2020 gold did not gain value (in fact lost up to 5%), barely holding up against money injection inflation

- real gold value had been plateauing around support for 5 years

- someone who bought and held gold during the fist half of the 90s (previous long consolidation around support) had lost about 25% of real value by now, despite gold price seemingly going up a lot since, which gives false sense of gaining value

- someone who bought around 2000-2001 bottom and sold at 2011 high (real high, versus 2020 false high) did very well

- someone who bought and held at previous real high in 1979-early 1980, during infamous pump, never regained that value and suffered huge losses, no matter how long they held it and most likely will never regain even a small portion of it

- someone who bought at last high of 2011 and held had lost almost half of the invested value by now to due to real inflation



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Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member
How are those private currency boards holding up?



The Economist is not sending its best:


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So... given the choice between the advice of an economics professor and lay techies... I'ma go with the old man.

Call me crazy.

"B...b... but he doesn't get it!..."

Whatever bro.

Fundamentals don't change that much.

Calling it now... this whole s[earmuffs] is a big fat pile of [digital] emperor's new clothes.

 

SilentCal

Sparrow
Except gold and silver do not appreciate or retain their value against inflation.

They're short-term speculative instruments only. They decline over time against inflation. If one enters at the bottom of the low, they can sell on high and do well as soon as they exited timely.

Seems like people don't adjust for inflation, so I have to re-post the charts again.
Gold adjusted for "real CPI"/real inflation based on ShadowStats data, which I find tends to be accurate (not fake government CPI which tends to be much lower than real consumer price inflation - they say it was only what, 1.4% in 2020? :D ).

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Okay, will you please tell me why you take this SGS-ALT index seriously? Evidently, the author of "Shadow Government Statistics" just takes the current CPI and adds a "factor" to it to "make" it. In other words, it's not even an index. Does anybody use this index besides his own subscribers? See here:
 

aynrus

Pelican
Okay, will you please tell me why you take this SGS-ALT index seriously? Evidently, the author of "Shadow Government Statistics" just takes the current CPI and adds a "factor" to it to "make" it. In other words, it's not even an index. Does anybody use this index besides his own subscribers? See here:
Oh their stuff is pretty accurate and a lot closer to real inflation than what laughable government CPI claims it to be. Do you remember consumer prices 25 years ago? If you compare the prices accross the years, the results back up their claims. Also, I had separately posted my chart adjusted for M2 money supply: it speaks for itself and runs along with ShadowStats version of real prices.
Actually, I think that even ShadowStats calculations still downplay the real inflation a bit and it's been higher.
 

aynrus

Pelican
On values.... Russian genius Ponzi master crook Sergei Mavrodi had been running enormous ponzi schemes his whole life and nothing could stop him. One of his late schemes (he'd died a couple of years ago) was openly running a financial pyramid MMM-2012 which circulated tokens called "Mavro".
There was a clear and shameless disclaimer that the scheme was a "financial pyramid" and that loss of all investment was possible - and all investors were aware of it. Yet they kept investing in it.
The pyramid had promised 40% monthly return, on average, on Mavro tokens.
The way it was accomplished is every month new price was simply set for the token - and the inflow of new buyers, that kept buying at higher prices, kept financing the earlier investors. Both old and new investors knew they were participating in the ponzi.
The scheme was able to fly... and people saw value in the tokens. (it ended with Mavrodi pulling the plug and abruptly cancelling the tokens redemptions leading to pyramid collapse and declaring that the pyramid is being turned into "decentralized" structure)
So if you can fly something like that while openly disclaiming you're running a pyramid, imagine what can be done if you manage to convince there's no pyramid...

Little known that Mavrodi also created infamous Stock Generation virtual Ponzi-game, which was creating enormous gains out of nothing trading virtual "stocks", and had US officials scratching their heads trying to figure out how to get him (but having "studied" US financial regulations beforehand he was able to avoid the hammer for a long time):
 
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SilentCal

Sparrow
Oh their stuff is pretty accurate and a lot closer to real inflation than what laughable government CPI claims it to be. Do you remember consumer prices 25 years ago? If you compare the prices accross the years, the results back up their claims. Also, I had separately posted my chart adjusted for M2 money supply: it speaks for itself and runs along with ShadowStats version of real prices.
Actually, I think that even ShadowStats calculations still downplay the real inflation a bit and it's been higher.
You clipped the beginning of the graph at gold's highest price ever. Not so honest.
 

aynrus

Pelican
You clipped the beginning of the graph at gold's highest price ever. Not so honest.
Excuse me? I clipped something? Nope, nothing is clipped, that's the range I got on Tradingview.
Your accusations are ridiculous and speak volumes about you. I'll ignore you from now on since you lay baseless accusations of dishonesty via personal attack, because you don't like the facts. Last resort of those who can't counter the facts.

You don't know about gold run of 1979? It's clearly stated 1979 was a peak of gold run/pump. Anyway, use charts from Kitko I posted if you want to see prices pre-1979, it's worse.
 
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