The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

[Arado]

If the NASDAQ goes down, BTC follows. As I said a few months ago, I don't like this behavior. If BTC is supposed to be the hedge against inflation it should not be so volatile.
Also, the more expensive it becomes, the harder it is to justify as an investment. When I buy something that can drop 10% in one day I expect a big upside potential as well. Can BTC double from current prices as easily as it did from 5k to 10k for example ?

BTC is an inflation hedge so far for folks in Argentina, Turkey, Nigeria, etc that have massive inflation. The developed world hasn't seen serious inflation since the 70's so for now it's abstract for most people.

The more expensive it becomes, true, the theoretical upside is lower, but the institutional adoption accelerates and it becomes more of a mainstay and harder for the government to ban.

Right now risky speculations are crashing because yields are rising - higher yields make it costlier to borrow to speculate, and make safer investments like U.S. treasuries seem more appealing in comparison. The Fed will have to step in eventually to cap yields but in the meantime this can get ugly.

The volatility is inevitable as you see the dawn of a new asset class come into maturity. It will not be a smooth ride so just get used to it and position size appropriately if it's keeping you up at night. Sorry that's just how crypto is - if you want the benefit of the upside you'll just need to build conviction to withstand the volatility.

 

[D_Garrison]

Deepdiver is right yet again on his elliot wave modeling and predictions for BTC. It hit $43.4k today and is on track to hit that sweet $38.5k entry point for us to hop in on . Thank you for your many contributions , Deepdiver.

 

[Kangaroo]

Just buy now

 

[Meraki]

BTC on track to test 50k again. Good thing I held on to some ETH...
was hoping this pullback would be longer. Had a feeling 43k was gonna be the bottom. How about the SPY on the open?

I can’t be the only person worried about how much crypto has been tracking the SPY these days?

 

[D_Garrison]

BTC on track to test 50k again. Good thing I held on to some ETH...
was hoping this pullback would be longer. Had a feeling 43k was gonna be the bottom. How about the SPY on the open?

I can’t be the only person worried about how much crypto has been tracking the SPY these days?

Perhaps $50k-$52k will be the swinghigh that gives us the $38.5k entry . Deepdiver, please chime in if you're reading this to let us know if we should readjust the $38.5k entry or hold steady .

 

[RedPillUK]

It didn't reach the 42k level that had the most buyers waiting for it. Usually when lots of people are expecting a certain price, smart traders will front run those people and the target won't be reached.

Don't just use price targets to determine your entries. Time is just as important. Today is Monday and the first of the month. It would have been much smarter to get in yesterday, at a price close enough to your target. Just because Sunday always has lower volume than other days of the week, (so less movement in either direction) and now lots of people will be entering as they get paid. I thought we would get one more drop down as well, before it would start to pump, but it didn't happen so I just bought more.

However anything can happen and maybe I'm wrong and I was a little too early. A more patient conservative trader than me would wait for more confirmation before jumping in here.

 

[Cervantes]

Stock market soars 2%, and bond yields drop:

Stocks rocket higher in broad rally to start March, S&P 500 jumps 2% for best day since June

Yields appeared to be stabilizing and the 10-year rate was off its high from last week, which encouraged investors that the rapid rise in rates was slowing.

www.cnbc.com

They say its optimism about the vaccine... yeah... right. Its really because money printing is going exponential:

Yellen Drops $1.1 Trillion Treasury Cash Pile in a Big Jolt for Money Markets

With new liquidity about to pour in, it remains to be seen how will it affect equities, risk assets, and more importantly, money markets.

realmoney.thestreet.com

So money pouring back into BTC, hit 49k just now. This recent price dip is about to close.

 

[Arado]

I wonder when all the pro crypto liberals will realize that the SJW politicians they support aren't on their side.


In contrast to Miami's mayor

 

[Blade Runner]

So it comes out that Mr. Wonderful has "done a 180 on BTC". But has he? He goes on to say that now that regulators seem positive, he can invest a small portion in it - but adds that he has held BTC and ETH since 2017. So why did he say that crypto was a nothing burger and worse for all of these years? If his claim is true that "people" don't want you to talk about it as it was not a mainstream topic, why was he just not avoiding the topic, rather he was talking badly about an investment he already owned?

Anyone involved in finance who has a media position is an impostor, at this point I don't know how you could arrive at any other conclusion. Smart investors like this one out the "system" every time, and it's quite disappointing. It's obvious there is talk which heavily influences these guys to say nothing, or only bad things (while they hold) but where do you think most of that originates?

And the "blood coin" stuff? What on earth is this man talking about?

https://marketsanity.com/shark-tank...itcoin-180-and-why-a-100k-price-is-not-crazy/

 

[Cervantes]

So it comes out that Mr. Wonderful has "done a 180 on BTC". But has he? He goes on to say that now that regulators seem positive, he can invest a small portion in it - but adds that he has held BTC and ETH since 2017. So why did he say that crypto was a nothing burger and worse for all of these years? If his claim is true that "people" don't want you to talk about it as it was not a mainstream topic, why was he just not avoiding the topic, rather he was talking badly about an investment he already owned?

Anyone involved in finance who has a media position is an impostor, at this point I don't know how you could arrive at any other conclusion. Smart investors like this one out the "system" every time, and it's quite disappointing. It's obvious there is talk which heavily influences these guys to say nothing, or only bad things (while they hold) but where do you think most of that originates?

And the "blood coin" stuff? What on earth is this man talking about?

https://marketsanity.com/shark-tank...itcoin-180-and-why-a-100k-price-is-not-crazy/

If guy with $100M invests $100k in bitcoin, can we really legitimately say he's invested in it?

 

[Stadtaffe]

I heard something interesting - the left does not like bitcoin since it is decentralised and so the antithesis of the centralised control they want.

Actually, had to pay for something with a few milli-bitcoin the other day and realised I forgot to bring the password. Have to get used to new habits..

 

[[email protected]]

I heard something interesting - the left does not like bitcoin since it is decentralised and so the antithesis of the centralised control they want.

Actually, had to pay for something with a few milli-bitcoin the other day and realised I forgot to bring the password. Have to get used to new habits..

I've talked to many leftists on the internet and Bitcoin doesn't seem to mesh well with their ideology. Like you mentioned already it is upsetting to them their living deity (the government) cannot control Bitcoin. The fact that libertarians or right wing people like it is a pause for concern. Using needless electricity and potentially contributing to global warming is a moral concern. The fact that most of the Bitcoin is held by a tiny minority of people is also concerning. I think these represent most of the emotional reasons why Bitcoin is a no go despite the exponential rise. There's also a fear of being too late and it going to 0 as soon as they buy it.

 

[Coja Petrus Uscan]

The fact that most of the Bitcoin is held by a tiny minority of people is also concerning.

99.99% of that minority is probably male.

Lefties who actually believe in their principles and not just power that is useful to them tend to be more partial to Bitcoin. The sort of people who like Julian Assange; the Weinsteins; those who are very focused on banking. I have even encountered lefties who know that COVID and global warming are a scam. These are the type of lefties that are very averse to any central control - maybe because they see the potential for abuse. These are the type that are more partial to Bitcoin, but they are latecomers.

Back in 2013-15 I frequented a Bitcoin trading group. There must have been about 2,000 users. The female to male ration was 1:1,000. And the female to male input was much lower than that. One sounded like a lesbian. The guys were a mix of latent conservatives and libertarians. Again, left-right ratio was essentially 1:1,000. One of the guys in the group owned about 0.5% of all BTC. These are the early adopters.

 

[Arado]

I'm not quite sure what to make of this - Ro Khanna is pretty plugged into the Silicon Valley scene so he probably understands the tech more than most. He's also said some good things about Big Tech's disproportionate power and the need to increase manufacturing base for middle America. OTOH, he seems to be a full on social justice warrior and supported Bernie Sanders at some point, in addition to subsidized college and medicare for all. How that is compatible with a claim to be against economic mismanagement? Strange contrast between him and the idiotic comments from Elizabeth Warren above.

For now while Bitcoin is still nascent and hasn't disrupted the dollar yet, everyone can be 'pro innovation, openness' etc and enjoy the gains while continuing to spout wacky leftist economic policies.

But once Bitcoin gets big enough to gain adoption at the dollar's expense, draining the ability of the Fed to print money and give it away to the government for equity crusading, then what?

Even Miami's mayor is pro Bitcoin but given the crime and welfare expenses there, could the city really survive in a sound money environment without a drastic cut in social services and subsequent crackdown on crime?

Either there are a lot of politicians who don't understand the Austrian roots of Bitcoin and how it will make socialism impossible, or they know the US Dollar and government are screwed and are getting ahead of the curve, or they are setting a trap for Bitcoiners. Or something else.


I'm very surprised he tagged Nic Carter in the tweet, who is extremely anti Central Banking and calling for hyperinflation in the dollar.

 

[[email protected]]

I'm not quite sure what to make of this - Ro Khanna is pretty plugged into the Silicon Valley scene so he probably understands the tech more than most. He's also said some good things about Big Tech's disproportionate power and the need to increase manufacturing base for middle America. OTOH, he seems to be a full on social justice warrior and supported Bernie Sanders at some point, in addition to subsidized college and medicare for all. How that is compatible with a claim to be against economic mismanagement? Strange contrast between him and the idiotic comments from Elizabeth Warren above.

For now while Bitcoin is still nascent and hasn't disrupted the dollar yet, everyone can be 'pro innovation, openness' etc and enjoy the gains while continuing to spout wacky leftist economic policies.

But once Bitcoin gets big enough to gain adoption at the dollar's expense, draining the ability of the Fed to print money and give it away to the government for equity crusading, then what?

Even Miami's mayor is pro Bitcoin but given the crime and welfare expenses there, could the city really survive in a sound money environment without a drastic cut in social services and subsequent crackdown on crime?

Either there are a lot of politicians who don't understand the Austrian roots of Bitcoin and how it will make socialism impossible, or they know the US Dollar and government are screwed and are getting ahead of the curve, or they are setting a trap for Bitcoiners. Or something else.


I'm very surprised he tagged Nic Carter in the tweet, who is extremely anti Central Banking and calling for hyperinflation in the dollar.

It's not clear what he means by economic mismanagement. He might be talking about the economic blockade against countries like Iran.

Anyone that supports subsidizing college and medical care with a money printer is economically illiterate. I wouldn't be caught dead saying anything like this anymore than I would be saying 1+1=3 or calling male transvestites, real women.

It could also mean that he is aware of the farce but chooses to throw his support behind it to virtue signal to the power structure that leans heavily left. "do as everyone else does, don't stand out and be cancelled".

 

[Blade Runner]

It could also mean that he is aware of the farce but chooses to throw his support behind it to virtue signal to the power structure that leans heavily left. "do as everyone else does, don't stand out and be cancelled".

Of course, he's a twat. Just look at him. As we used to say on the old forum, physiognomy is everything.

 

[Arado]

It's not clear what he means by economic mismanagement. He might be talking about the economic blockade against countries like Iran.

Anyone that supports subsidizing college and medical care with a money printer is economically illiterate. I wouldn't be caught dead saying anything like this anymore than I would be saying 1+1=3 or calling male transvestites, real women.

It could also mean that he is aware of the farce but chooses to throw his support behind it to virtue signal to the power structure that leans heavily left. "do as everyone else does, don't stand out and be cancelled".

That's what I don't get, though - by coming out in favor of it he takes away political capital from those who would try to ban it or enact heavy regulations. There is no virtue signaling in being pro-Bitcoin - there's lots of SJW hand wringing over Bitcoin mining and pollution, and how it facilitates donations to non-PC thinkers.

Putting aside education and healthcare subsidies, a BTC dominated world would bring into question whether the U.S. could survive as a viable political entity (and remain a democracy) without the ability to print currency to buy votes/pay welfare for 40% of the population and a gigantic military.

I just don't get how such a wide spectrum of ideologies, from libertarians (Nic Carter, Cynthia Lummins, Saifedean Ammous), to big tech globalists (Jack Dorsey), to right wing nationalists (Andrew Torba/Nick Fuentes), to Christian philosophers (Robert Breedlove), to quirky rocket scientists (Mike Saylor/Elon Musk), to mainstream politicians (Ro Khanna, Francis Suarez) all are Bitcoin supporters.

Either something isn't right, or Bitcoin has such a transformative impact on society that it's disrupting both the old (republican vs. democrat) AND new (globalist vs. nationalist) political spectrum.

 

[[email protected]]

The stakes are way higher now. Before btc was speculative now it's more of life raft from money printer go brrr. Of course everyone that isn't oblivious is moving towards the exits regardless of ideology.

It was never a democracy. Just Jews with money printer access giving it their tribespeople and both political parties to whomever did favors for them. If people ever got something by voting it was just coincidentally what Jews already wanted.

I'm not sure what the US or other countries will transition to. Jeff Booth talks about moving towards a deflationary economy but I have a tough time picturing what that will look like with our current levels of technology. It's probably more likely they introduce another fiat currency backed by nothing and people are stupid enough to accept it again.

 

[Coja Petrus Uscan]

I just don't get how such a wide spectrum of ideologies, from libertarians (Nic Carter, Cynthia Lummins, Saifedean Ammous), to big tech globalists (Jack Dorsey), to right wing nationalists (Andrew Torba/Nick Fuentes), to Christian philosophers (Robert Breedlove), to quirky rocket scientists (Mike Saylor/Elon Musk), to mainstream politicians (Ro Khanna, Francis Suarez) all are Bitcoin supporters.

Either something isn't right...

It could be that Bitcoin is cool and from various people's perspective - Bitcoin sticks it to their own particular 'man'.

In the case of Jack Dorsey. The guy was a pink-haired, soy-body syberphunk. He desperately wants to be on the cool kids' table with edge-lords like Woody Harrelson, Glenn Greenwald and George Floyd. But instead he is found perched next to Nancy Pelosi and Dick Cheney flicking his pacemaker on and off.

For Jack Dorsey, the man he wants to stick it to is himself - the czar of the military industrial complex aggregator. A state surveillance agency run by gullible volunteers. Jack booted one of the other founders out of the company and pretended it was the VC guys who knifed him. He is the global czar of election interference, censorship and psyops who runs the world's largest calling-card drop site for prostitutes. Twitter turned Jack Dorsey into a total ... Oh I almost used that б-word.

In the case of Ro Khanna, he is probably just 20-30 years out of date and thinks he's sticking it to Neil Bush for the Silverado Savings and Loan scam. Normies are all 20-30 years behind yesterday.

Musk is a freewheeler who annoys everyone and has few allies in any place. He has faced attacks from all angles.

For the libertarians it's more obvious, as it is their intrinsic ideology.

It's again obvious for the likes of Torba, who have been banned from 99% of society. You won't find Jack tweeting about that blacklisting along with all his black Bitcoin and Nigeria ones.

 

[Talus]

I just don't get how such a wide spectrum of ideologies, from libertarians (Nic Carter, Cynthia Lummins, Saifedean Ammous), to big tech globalists (Jack Dorsey), to right wing nationalists (Andrew Torba/Nick Fuentes), to Christian philosophers (Robert Breedlove), to quirky rocket scientists (Mike Saylor/Elon Musk), to mainstream politicians (Ro Khanna, Francis Suarez) all are Bitcoin supporters.

This is a salient point and pretty much the only reason I am actually becoming weary of my btc holdings. As you pointed out, bitcoin has the ability to draw everyone into it, no matter their background or personal leanings. It is a NWO so to speak, just not the one anyone envisioned. But it has similar hallmarks of Totality. It begs the question, if bitcoin is the new monetary light of the world, who was the 'light-bringer'. I've been into Bitcoin since 2014, and the longer I watch it, as it wells up and consumes financial indexes, the more I am faced with it's spiritual implications and anonymity. I don't think we really see all the implications here, and I for one am guilty of seeing dollar signs instead of spiritual signs. But it's obvious when you hear the diehard bitcoiners use religious vernacular to describe their favorite money. If it's not outright blasphemy, it borders on it.

Either something isn't right, or Bitcoin has such a transformative impact on society that it's disrupting both the old (republican vs. democrat) AND new (globalist vs. nationalist) political spectrum.

Both. We should proceed with caution.

Or maybe I just over think things. I do that a lot...