The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Everyone here talking about when to sell Bitcoin based on the next downturn and stock to flow model needs to keep larger macro conditions in mind. In 2013 inflation was pretty muted as Gold and Silver peaked a year before, and commodities were on the downtrend, and the Fed was still able to convince everyone that QE was temporary and eventually the balance sheet could be run down.

In 2018, the Fed was still raising interest rates and JPow was telling the markets that he wasn't going to switch policy to accommodate them, and the Fed was still in quantitative tightening. The total insolvency of the system wasn't yet obvious.

Now, though - it's pretty clear that the Fed has to keep real rates negative otherwise the system collapses due to debt, so a deflationary asset like Bitcoin is a no brainer. Before deciding whether to sell, ask yourself what you are buying instead and what the inflation adjusted interest rate is.

If the COVID restrictions and BLM riots tone down + eviction bans end and suburban/rural real estate cools off then that would be a good place to put BTC profits. Or perhaps energy/agriculture/metals and other commodities, if they haven't bid up too much alongside BTC, may make sense as well. But to just stuff your profits in a bank account earning nothing while the money printer goes brrrrrrr then that would be risky if you don't have a long term plan.
 
Everyone here talking about when to sell Bitcoin based on the next downturn and stock to flow model needs to keep larger macro conditions in mind. In 2013 inflation was pretty muted as Gold and Silver peaked a year before, and commodities were on the downtrend, and the Fed was still able to convince everyone that QE was temporary and eventually the balance sheet could be run down.

In 2018, the Fed was still raising interest rates and JPow was telling the markets that he wasn't going to switch policy to accommodate them, and the Fed was still in quantitative tightening. The total insolvency of the system wasn't yet obvious.

Now, though - it's pretty clear that the Fed has to keep real rates negative otherwise the system collapses due to debt, so a deflationary asset like Bitcoin is a no brainer. Before deciding whether to sell, ask yourself what you are buying instead and what the inflation adjusted interest rate is.

If the COVID restrictions and BLM riots tone down + eviction bans end and suburban/rural real estate cools off then that would be a good place to put BTC profits. Or perhaps energy/agriculture/metals and other commodities, if they haven't bid up too much alongside BTC, may make sense as well. But to just stuff your profits in a bank account earning nothing while the money printer goes brrrrrrr then that would be risky if you don't have a long term plan.
True. Even putting 20% of your cash into crypto is already being wayyy ahead of the competition. Western boomers have no idea of what it feels like to way up one day, and realize that your own currency is worthless.

The era of the USD is done and finished. The Chinese are selling it and buying gold. Russia as well. I see BTC like digital gold, and I noticed more and more (legal) businesses accepting BTC as a payment.
 

eradicator

Peacock
Gold Member
I just set up a self directed IRA via domestic LLC using Broad Financial. They create the LLC for you and set you up with a custodian that you can transfer your current IRA funds to, who then transfers the funds to your LLC. One time fee of $1400 plus $360/yr, plus whatever your state LLC filing/yr costs. If the funds are Roth, you can now buy, sell, trade, and cash out ad infinitum with no capital gains.
I’m pretty sure you can only cash out after age 59 and a half to get the no tax stipulation and you are still capped at $6000/year of deposits (I think?)
 

Blade Runner

Pelican
Orthodox
The mega back door roth (401k) I believe can be accessed by age 55, but that's a very interesting device that is basically just for particularly high earners.
 

fiasco360

Kingfisher
Orthodox
Everyone here talking about when to sell Bitcoin based on the next downturn and stock to flow model needs to keep larger macro conditions in mind. In 2013 inflation was pretty muted as Gold and Silver peaked a year before, and commodities were on the downtrend, and the Fed was still able to convince everyone that QE was temporary and eventually the balance sheet could be run down.

In 2018, the Fed was still raising interest rates and JPow was telling the markets that he wasn't going to switch policy to accommodate them, and the Fed was still in quantitative tightening. The total insolvency of the system wasn't yet obvious.

Now, though - it's pretty clear that the Fed has to keep real rates negative otherwise the system collapses due to debt, so a deflationary asset like Bitcoin is a no brainer. Before deciding whether to sell, ask yourself what you are buying instead and what the inflation adjusted interest rate is.

If the COVID restrictions and BLM riots tone down + eviction bans end and suburban/rural real estate cools off then that would be a good place to put BTC profits. Or perhaps energy/agriculture/metals and other commodities, if they haven't bid up too much alongside BTC, may make sense as well. But to just stuff your profits in a bank account earning nothing while the money printer goes brrrrrrr then that would be risky if you don't have a long term plan.
Good insight.

Money velocity will make a HUGE jump if restrictions are loosened up and we will see inflation. There will be a window where people are pulling their money out of Crypto (might even be starting now) to start spending - I would take the profits and reinvest right back into the people selling.

A lot of BIG money is flowing into Crypto in general right now and I think a majority of "normal" people should just be looking to outperform BTC. I would also argue ETH will be the play from here on out and BTC will just be a decent hedge. Especially when new ETH protocol is out in July.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
Looks like it's hit it's bottom. Bought in before it started shooting off. It has bounced off the 1d RSI=30, which it has not touched since last March's carnage. It rarely goes so low.

A lot of BIG money is flowing into Crypto in general right now and I think a majority of "normal" people should just be looking to outperform BTC. I would also argue ETH will be the play from here on out and BTC will just be a decent hedge. Especially when new ETH protocol is out in July.

It will be interesting to see what happens with that. If they can't fix the gas issue then BNB will continue to take chunks out of them. DeFi developments on ETH have stalled, everything new is on BSC. Even if ETH can fix the gas issue then the DeFi protocols need to get to work compeeting with what BSC ones have done. Gas fees need to go down really low. In and out on a more complex protocol may cost $300-500 now. I tried to exit SNX staking for $150, but am still stuck in there. SNX is one to sell if you are lucky enough to not be stuck in their clunky staking.

ZeroHedge have published an article suggesting a big move for ETH:


If they can get fees down a lot in July that will likely trigger a large move and I would expect ETH to challenge BTC as it did in 2017. Though the rise of BNB may stop that from happening.

Re. Arado's points, you can now buy backed synthetic stock via Mirror and there are some very large rates on farming the stocks. For example 162% on TESLA (https://terra.mirror.finance/, https://autofarm.network/), plenty of stablecoins, a few gold backed coins.
 
I’m pretty sure you can only cash out after age 59 and a half to get the no tax stipulation and you are still capped at $6000/year of deposits (I think?)
"cash out" was the wrong term, I meant convert the BTC to fiat and not withdraw it from the IRA, without a tax event. Also you can withdraw any contributions you have made to a Roth IRA at any time, tax free. Anything in excess of principle you must wait until 59.5
 

bucky

Ostrich
Don't you just laugh at these so-called experts on investments? Reporting a drop and then a bounce back less than 24hrs later!!!

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/have-fun-getting-poor-bitcoin-collapse-down-24-from-ath/

This volatility could go on for a week or ten days more.
I mean, I guess BTC and the other big coins could go down to zero and that would suck, but I doubt it. I basically just put my stimulus checks into crypto, half BTC, half other, so I can't really complain whatever happens.

When I went out yesterday afternoon I was listening to a livestream that mentioned the Biden administration wanting to jack up capital gains tax to over 40% and I thought OK, that's why crypto is tanking. Should I sell while I still have some minimal gains? Nah, I decided. It'll come back eventually even with the ridiculously high capital gains. Then when I got back home last night, BTC has already gone from 47k to 52k.
 
Its already been discussed, but here's how you avoid cap gains in 10 years when you want to retire....HODL, buy, HODL...NEVER SELL. Just take out loans against your BTC, loans are not taxed. The loan interest rate is likely LOWER than the inflation rate of the money supply. The Fed has to buy bonds to keep interest rates artificially low, or the US will default on its debts. That's how even consumer loan APRs like mortgages and car loans are lower than inflation. This is how the super wealthy pay zero taxes. They buy a hard asset like prime real estate and take out loans against it. The asset appreciates in value faster than inflation, so they just keep refinancing, all while maintaining ownership of the asset that is growing in value faster than inflation. The interest rate they pay on the loan is LOWER than the inflation rate, so they are not only gaining wealth from the asset appreciation, but they are essentially taking the wealth of everyone who holds cash by being able to finance at an APR lower than the inflation rate. Whenever the Fed prints money, it is going indirectly into their pockets via the low interest (negative real interest) loan. Zero income or capital gains tax. Meanwhile the wage slaves are trapped in the tax system that won't let them accumulate enough wealth to buy an asset that does this. Gold has such a huge markup and storage fees, that it doesn't even keep pace with inflation. The gold brokers get rich off gold, no one else will. Bitcoin.
 

kel

Ostrich
Its already been discussed, but here's how you avoid cap gains in 10 years when you want to retire....HODL, buy, HODL...NEVER SELL. Just take out loans against your BTC, loans are not taxed. The loan interest rate is likely LOWER than the inflation rate of the money supply.
This is how tech CEOs like Zuckerberg do it. He's never sold any of his Facebook ownership (besides to early investors years ago), he just takes out loans against his ownership stake. The bank will, obviously, give him a very nice rate on basically whatever amount of money he wants because they figure he's good for it. What little interest he does pay he can write off.

Still, as a regular guy this makes me nervous. Even if it's silly, debt makes me nervous.
 
This is how tech CEOs like Zuckerberg do it. He's never sold any of his Facebook ownership (besides to early investors years ago), he just takes out loans against his ownership stake. The bank will, obviously, give him a very nice rate on basically whatever amount of money he wants because they figure he's good for it. What little interest he does pay he can write off.

Still, as a regular guy this makes me nervous. Even if it's silly, debt makes me nervous.
The danger being if BTC has a huge drop and you get liquidated. That’s why you need a lot of BTC and only take at most 5% LTV. Maybe your loan costs 8% APR, meanwhile the inflation rate is 15%...just having the loan is paying you. The Fed buying their own worthless treasuries to keep interest rates below market is why this is happening, at least at my level of understanding.
 

kel

Ostrich
Yeah, provided the interest is less than inflation. While I'm very pessimistic about the economic future of.... well, just about everywhere, I still think keeping the house of cards standing is important to the elites and all sorts of policy and funnymoney tricks can be used to make numbers on a spreadsheet end up whatever they need to be. It's a gamble, in the end. One I'd like to take, and probably will at some point, but I'm still hesitant. Real estate has been booming lately driving up prices, but in my amateur estimation that's the "safest" way to make such a bet - the mortgage rates are quite low right now, get a mortgage for a property you'd be happy with even if it went to zero, and hope that inflation just attenuates out that interest.
 

fiasco360

Kingfisher
Orthodox
Looks like it's hit it's bottom. Bought in before it started shooting off. It has bounced off the 1d RSI=30, which it has not touched since last March's carnage. It rarely goes so low.



It will be interesting to see what happens with that. If they can't fix the gas issue then BNB will continue to take chunks out of them. DeFi developments on ETH have stalled, everything new is on BSC. Even if ETH can fix the gas issue then the DeFi protocols need to get to work compeeting with what BSC ones have done. Gas fees need to go down really low. In and out on a more complex protocol may cost $300-500 now. I tried to exit SNX staking for $150, but am still stuck in there. SNX is one to sell if you are lucky enough to not be stuck in their clunky staking.

ZeroHedge have published an article suggesting a big move for ETH:


If they can get fees down a lot in July that will likely trigger a large move and I would expect ETH to challenge BTC as it did in 2017. Though the rise of BNB may stop that from happening.

Re. Arado's points, you can now buy backed synthetic stock via Mirror and there are some very large rates on farming the stocks. For example 162% on TESLA (https://terra.mirror.finance/, https://autofarm.network/), plenty of stablecoins, a few gold backed coins.
Agreed.

ETH 2.0 will determine what happens next IMO.

Right now I'm big into $SOL and the platforms it runs underneath it. $RAY, $COPE, $STEP. Lots of funding from FTX and a lot of big names/engineers on teams. I see the biggest growth potential in these even if a little bit riskier.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
Right now I'm big into $SOL and the platforms it runs underneath it. $RAY, $COPE, $STEP. Lots of funding from FTX and a lot of big names/engineers on teams. I see the biggest growth potential in these even if a little bit riskier.

SOL does look like one of the chains that has the muscle in. I am just setting up deposits on Raydium.

Noted hate menace and Bitcoin centamillionare Stefan Basil Molyneux:


vs. the media:

Screenshot-at-2021-04-27-19-07-05.png
 

kurtybro

Woodpecker
Its already been discussed, but here's how you avoid cap gains in 10 years when you want to retire....HODL, buy, HODL...NEVER SELL. Just take out loans against your BTC, loans are not taxed. The loan interest rate is likely LOWER than the inflation rate of the money supply. The Fed has to buy bonds to keep interest rates artificially low, or the US will default on its debts. That's how even consumer loan APRs like mortgages and car loans are lower than inflation. This is how the super wealthy pay zero taxes. They buy a hard asset like prime real estate and take out loans against it. The asset appreciates in value faster than inflation, so they just keep refinancing, all while maintaining ownership of the asset that is growing in value faster than inflation. The interest rate they pay on the loan is LOWER than the inflation rate, so they are not only gaining wealth from the asset appreciation, but they are essentially taking the wealth of everyone who holds cash by being able to finance at an APR lower than the inflation rate. Whenever the Fed prints money, it is going indirectly into their pockets via the low interest (negative real interest) loan. Zero income or capital gains tax. Meanwhile the wage slaves are trapped in the tax system that won't let them accumulate enough wealth to buy an asset that does this. Gold has such a huge markup and storage fees, that it doesn't even keep pace with inflation. The gold brokers get rich off gold, no one else will. Bitcoin.

There's no way the banksters will allow that to continue indefinitely, as history has shown us they create boom and bust cycles (through manipulating the availability of credit) in order to separate the goyim from their real assets. Tread carefully if you don't know exactly what youre doing.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Epic thread - this is why I have trouble envisioning a scenario in which Bitcoin succeeds but does NOT threaten the global power structure. Maybe it can limp along with draconian measures on it or go to zero if there's some yet undiscovered technical flaw.

Otherwise, the powers at be are in big trouble and they won't go without a fight.

 
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