The Bitcoin (BTC) thread


I understand and agree, I was just wondering what you thought CPI would do, because even that might continue to move (and the classic definition-ers will still have a problem even in their false paradigm).

They will just manipulate the basket of goods to show that inflation was/is only 2-4%/year. Just remove anything going up in price violently as 'volatile', that's how this Jedi Mind Trick works. The Fed announces that CPI was nominal, fake news reassures people there's no inflation, the end.


Orthodox Catechumen
There must be a lot of money on the sidelines now, considering the market cap across all cryptos dropping. I wonder where it will go next :hmm:


38-39k is about 40% from the top so I think that's the bottom. This is without doing any TA or looking at market structure.
What does everyone else think? I have to admit that I'm surprised to see BTC below 40k this morning after the trillions of USD in stimulus money going out and with no reliable rumors of government action against it that I know of. Thought I was clever buying in a few months ago, but it turns out I'd have been better off waiting until now.


You didn't know back then what was going to happen :)

I'd wait for the price to stabilize for a few days, then make a decision.
I wonder what stabilize will look like. I made that post, went and did my morning workout, and now it looks like I'm officially underwater. Ouch.


I wonder what stabilize will look like. I made that post, went and did my morning workout, and now it looks like I'm officially underwater. Ouch.
I'm sorry you're underwater right now - but I think you'll be doing great a few months from now.

When you buy into volatile assets you should "DCA" - dollar cost averaging - buying in steadily over time. When you look at the jagged graph of a volatile asset you don't know at any given time if you're buying on the peak or a trough of the jagged graph. If you space your purchases over time its as if you ran a smoothing filter on the graph and then bought at the midpoint of your DCA period. You can do the same thing when selling for the same reason.

There are a couple of reasons people buy crypto and you have to think about your own reasons.

Speculation: Some people don't really believe in it, and have no use for it, but just want to jump in on something that appears to be going up. In that case you should be mostly concerned with social signals - like how "hot" something is, who is talking about it etc. If you're in this camp you should consider more than just the major coins (BTC and ETH) would have done best jumping on trends like Doge.

I started thinking a month ago that we're entering a negative period for speculation and said so a week ago:

I keep seeing BTC rise slowly over days then have a panic selloff. I suspect that means the current speculative holders with a lot of gains get nervous and sell when they think their gains might get wiped out (I'm tempted). Given that it is just trending sideways with lots of panic sells I predict that we're headed into weakness.

Investment is when you think something will gain for fundamental reasons: that is, that it will become truly more valuable over time based on more than just perception. There are a few good reasons to invest, and whether its worth investing depend on if you think these things will happen:

1. It could become a standard (or even the standard) currency of the world: I'm not sure it will ever be the currency regular people use day to day just because it is way too complex for 99% of the people of the world to use. But it could conceivably be the currency of international trade, or exchange between large companies, or one of the backbones of the financial system.

The reasons for this would are technological: its secure, decentralized, low counterparty risk, transparent, inflation resistant etc.

The counter argument to this is political: nations and bankers that are invested in the current system will oppose it. You have to decide for yourself who you think is going to win. Definitely we're going to see things like efforts by them to discredit it as the money of criminals, or have governments and banks restrict its use, tax it etc.

If you're buying on this theory then you should be looking at things like how many major financial, corporate and government institutions buy into it or support it in some way. I bought in mid last year when I started seeing support from banks, payment processors, hedge funds etc. It signaled to me that a decision had been made internally to support it. We're seeing some reversals here: china, tesla, etc.

The struggle isn't over and I think the normal monetary system is headed into trouble and that these institutions are going to be forced by economic realities to support crypto.

If you believe in this theory (I do) then you should be in BTC and ETH, and hold your crypto in reliable exchanges like coinbase or blockfi.

2. Apocalypse money: Another theory is that we're headed into hyper inflation, or into a totalitarian dystopia where your money will either have no value, or where you need an off the grid currency to trade in things that you don't want the government to track.

This is a reasonable possibility, and was more of a consideration for me when I first go in. If this is your theory, then I thin you still want to be in BTC, ETH or maybe Monero (less popular, less likely to hold value, but privacy focused). You should buy the crypto P2P in cash and hold it in a cold wallet.

Also, if this is your theory then all you should want is for crypto to be going down all the time - so that it gets easier to buy. You should only care about is what its value will be post-collapse. Price rises today due to other reasons actually are just making it harder for you to accumulate it now.


I was thinking about getting into Bitcoin but I'm worried now that some Russian hacker can break into my account and clean me out.

Isn't there anything that can be done to prevent this stuff from happening?


I don't own Bitcoin, but if you "Believe" in it as an asset, then for those who aren't fully invested, it's an opportunity to pick up more bitcoin.

This is how I feel about silver, I don't really want it to go up that fast. This is the difference between investors and speculators, speculators just buy because the price goes up, and we are getting alot of that with the newbies in Crypto right now IMHO.

I'd like to buy a whole bitcoin if the price comes down a little more I could afford one. Agree with apocalypse money and have more recently came to understand it's store of value. The other part I like is the real crypto guys are believers, it reminds me of the silver guys. They will hold because they have confidence in the investment.