but wondering if everyone else is still feeling as positive about the outlook for the end of 2021.
Technically it looked like a sell to me, even before the crash. It was going very weak on 1w candles for some time. But it is now bouncing in 1d. I would expect it to take some time for it to build strength.
In 2017 there was a crash that took the total cap to levels a month earlier.
2021 has seen a bigger crash that wiped out two months.
Both of those crashes, particularly this 2021 one have a lot of marks that look like total market collapse, they went sideways for a few months and them FOMO + overtime.
I am proceeding with caution, but still expecting new ATHs. There was a lot of bad news and FUD in 2-3 weeks. If BTC can start powering back up to $50K and act as a safe heaven, people will soon forget about it. Back a short while ago I was in some DeFi vaults on AutoFarm. They had a botched implementation that led to a few percent of deposits disappearing somewhere. Their PR on it was good. They went from about $2B locked to $700M locked and their coin sank about 60%. Two weeks later they were both higher than they were before the issue and they haven't outlined their compensation plan yet. Elon's army are not the best.
The extreme pain now is what you buy, though it's not apparent what the trajectory is. The extreme pain in March 2020 was far more obvious. I bought in with out hesitation then + leverage.
This feels very similar to the 2017 period when people were very nervous being at about $80B. The difference is the technicals are really bad this time. One of the things that makes me more bullish is I don't feel we have had enough pain for a bull cycle. A few brief dips and this mega-crash. 2017 was not kind on weak hands. This is their first challenge this year.