The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

Freebird Flying

Woodpecker
I'm down about 200K on BTC and alt coins the since 2018. But, I want to possibly get in again. What's the best way? I have like a 10% of net worth to put in. I'm retired already around 45 YO range.......

I was thinking put in like 1/3 July 31m 1/3 Jan 2022, 1/3 Jan 2023.

50/50 BTC and ETH / other alts....
 
Stop thinking in fiat, just get more BTC. Blood in the streets, buy. Dogecoin to the moon, take profits. Use profits to buy when panic returns. Rinse and repeat.
Most think we will retest 32-34k...thats when I'll buy more. If we hit 40k I'll take profits. If it shoots through 40 up to 48, I'll wait until it retests 40 and buy it back.
 

Freebird Flying

Woodpecker
Stop thinking in fiat, just get more BTC. Blood in the streets, buy. Dogecoin to the moon, take profits. Use profits to buy when panic returns. Rinse and repeat.
Most think we will retest 32-34k...thats when I'll buy more. If we hit 40k I'll take profits. If it shoots through 40 up to 48, I'll wait unti
HI Chance. are you up a lot at crypto. What if it doesn't go back down to 40K again? It goes off to like 70 to 100K. Are you long term holding? Thanks!
 
HI Chance. are you up a lot at crypto. What if it doesn't go back down to 40K again? It goes off to like 70 to 100K. Are you long term holding? Thanks!
Both. I have a hold acct and a trading acct that is IRA, so I can trade tax free. I hold 80% and trade 20%. When BTC is trading sideways I look at the Bollinger bands and follow some decent charters and do some trading. Right now BTC is volatile, gaining and losing 10-20% every few days. Buying and selling 2 or 3 times a week when we are in a sideways market can increase your holdings. But the 80% I don't touch. That way if it rockets to 90k in a week, I'm already 80% in. That isn't everyone's strategy, most say buy and hold, but I want to learn trading to see if I like it, especially since I can avoid cap gains. I bought 3 btc at 32k and actively traded 0.5 through 2 dip and rallys this week, which brought my cost basis down to 29k. If I had to pay cap gains I would probably lose money.
 
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Nacho

Sparrow
Both. I have a hold acct and a trading acct that is IRA, so I can trade tax free. I hold 80% and trade 20%. When BTC is trading sideways I look at the Bollinger bands and follow some decent charters and do some trading. Right now BTC is volatile, gaining and losing 10-20% every few days. Buying and selling 2 or 3 times a week when we are in a sideways market can increase your holdings. But the 80% I don't touch. That way if it rockets to 90k in a week, I'm already 80% in. That isn't everyone's strategy, most say buy and hold, but I want to learn trading to see if I like it, especially since I can avoid cap gains. I bought 3 btc at 32k and actively traded 0.5 through 2 dip and rallys this week, which brought my cost basis down to 29k. If I had to pay cap gains I would probably lose money.

Nice! What platform allows you to trade BTC in an IRA? Also, wouldn't the 'fees' eat away at your profit trading that much? Do you keep your BTC in your online accout or do you transfer to a hard wallet? If you do, which hard wallet do you reccomend?
 
Nice! What platform allows you to trade BTC in an IRA? Also, wouldn't the 'fees' eat away at your profit trading that much? Do you keep your BTC in your online accout or do you transfer to a hard wallet? If you do, which hard wallet do you reccomend?
I set up a self-directed IRA using an LLC. I used Broad Financial to create it, use a trust company to fund the LLC, then create a crypto exchange acct in the name of the LLC. The trust company charges about $400/yr plus you need to file LLC fees with your state. The exchange I use is paxos, the fees are low I think 75 basis points for crypto and 100 points for gold. So 20k in trades might yield 6k in profit for $150 in fees.
Haven't used a hw wallet yet have been using airgap on an old fone but did order the safepal that someone here recommended. I plan to go full cold storage at end of bull market when I'll sell 75% of holdings for gold and cold store 25% btc, unless something happens like euro banks start failing, then I may balance differently.
Watch euro banks, if they start to fall I think that will be the first dominoes. Might be a few years away.
Also keep an eye on 5yr CDS for sovereign debt, another coal mine canary.
 
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Freebird Flying

Woodpecker
Both. I have a hold acct and a trading acct that is IRA, so I can trade tax free. I hold 80% and trade 20%. When BTC is trading sideways I look at the Bollinger bands and follow some decent charters and do some trading. Right now BTC is volatile, gaining and losing 10-20% every few days. Buying and selling 2 or 3 times a week when we are in a sideways market can increase your holdings. But the 80% I don't touch. That way if it rockets to 90k in a week, I'm already 80% in. That isn't everyone's strategy, most say buy and hold, but I want to learn trading to see if I like it, especially since I can avoid cap gains. I bought 3 btc at 32k and actively traded 0.5 through 2 dip and rallys this week, which brought my cost basis down to 29k. If I had to pay cap gains I would probably lose money.
I like the idea and you seem to have great discipline with the plan.

Is the trading money in a separate account ?

I have a Sep Ira but only think I can access directly is great scale bitcoin and eth currently.

i have a lump sum to invest i had plan to wait until january to start after i saw it drop Maybe i can start sooner and put 1/3 in id it goes back to around 30 k level

Unless Thats the bottom already then Maybe missed out. I have the fomo. But i also dont enjoy checking every day the prices.

The text book way seems to dollar cost averAge in month by month over 1 to 3 years That makes sense before but Im thinking what if it goes to 100k.

i would feel bad if it goes to 250 k and i had Zero !

seems like a pretty tricky decision with a one Time lump sum How to get in.
 
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Don't go all at once. Don't buy now it should retest 31-34k.... I also have GBTC in another acct. I always have at least 20% cash/stablecoin no matter what, so if there's an unexpected drop I can buy. After December it may crash 80%...if it hits 100k, it may be 20k this time next year. Never be in a hurry to buy. If you feel rushed to buy or euphoric, that means sell. If you feel scared to buy, buy more. If you go in with half your money at once, that's when you'll see a huge dip and feel terrible. Go in with 1/10th of your money, and you are happy if it dips (buy more) or if it goes up.
My trading money is separate.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
I'm down about 200K on BTC and alt coins the since 2018.

Does this mean you have lost $200,000 in crypto?

If you had DCA'd £50/$75 a month into crypto since Jan 2013 you'd have approaching $500,000 at the current price and around $800,000 at the recent ATH ($64K). If you'd have begun lending BTC at a time good rates began (about 18 months ago) you'd have $40K+ on top of that in interest. That's on DCA seed money of about $7,200.

I never really recommended anyone buy crypto - other than at two points: Jan 2015 and March 2020, when it hit absolute pain and/or FUD. No one wanted the advice. Some of those have been chomping in once FOMO kicked in ... as the price has 10X'd (BTC), 30X'd (ETH). Some are up 100X+.

A friend told me he was in what, I believe, you Americans call a convenience store. The girl at the till was chatting with someone, "Yeah Greg's bought Doge Coin and Ripple. (smug)." Other girl, "It all sounds very dangerous to me." Till girl: "Don't worry, my boyfriend's really smart."

I commented that this really smart boyfriend money was probably the market topping-out - time to sell.

Anyone buying in now is buying in at highly elevated prices. The coin market cap was $142B in March 2020. It was almost $2.6B a few days ago. Buying in with one large lump sum was a no-brainier in March 2020. Buying in now is a much higher risk for a lower reward. For Bitcoin my current sentiment is buying in now = potential 70% loss vs. 3.5X upside. As opposed to March when I saw the downside as 0 and upside 10-100X.

Unless you have 10-20 years experience of success in sitting in front of charts, DCAing in is the way to go. As it's late in the game you could also try another method, which is predefining your entry and exit positions. This is a basic play from the 10-20 years XP column. Their game is to spot patterns that can make more winning trades than their loosing trades...

$31K the other day was a nice entry point. Buy at $31K and set you tolerance for losses. Say 10%. You set a sell order at $28K. For the sell, I am looking at parabolic charts + socials + retail mania. $64K did not hit those three. If you don't have a disciplined regime for buying in at elevated prices, you are left with little more than FOMO/FUD emotion; and the humble DCAers will steamroll you with the flakes of their monthly paychecks.

When crypto crashes again, that is the time you want to pile in with large sums. DCA in from then on.
 

Freebird Flying

Woodpecker
Does this mean you have lost $200,000 in crypto?

Around that. I can say I lost it / sold it during the lockdown I wasn't at my highest emotional state at the time. Most of those losses was on the alt coins, which I had a lot of.

Even so, I'd like to have some crypto in my portfolio maybe 3 to 10% just in case bit coin goes up to around 250K or something like that in the next 5 to 10 years....

Is there a theory out there that bitcoin would probably go up to either 250 to 500K, or go really low (something replaces it).

I can def DCA in some form. I wouldn't put it all in at once again. And make sure when I do I have durability (can leave that in for at least 3 to 5 years or more)

I'm not expecting to make a lot, but I feel like it would be a decent way to diversify my holdings with stocks and bonds.....
 

Nate_Drake

Sparrow
How much does having a fake paper coin like tether play into these big market drops? I get the distinct impression that these drops would be a lot less pronounced if tether et Al were not available. Of course, if everyone who held tether right now tried to cash out in actual usd we would be looking at the apocalypse.
 

Knight.of.Logos

Woodpecker
Orthodox Catechumen
BTC Does what it is supposed to do... As I wrote upthread we were due and would do an ABC corrective leg in a classic A to the 100 DMA (Orange) within ATR Range of $3K to $4K daily then a B leg retrace back up to the 50DMA Yellow $56.9 merged with the 20DMA Blue at $56.9K for a $57K Mid Red Channel Psychological level 1K Target prior to the classic longer C leg retrace to the the 200DMA which interestingly has moved up a full Fibonacci Level from .618 at $31K to the .5 Fibonacci Retrace level at $37K with a similar angle to the A Leg to reach the target in the Middle of May roughly May 15th.

As previously mentioned the first Major 5 Wave Shown in light Green and now this Major ABC retrace are fractal in nature and represent the Wave 1 and Wave 2 of a much larger Degree Fractal Wave. This is where it gets very exciting as the turn from a retracing large wave 2 into the even larger longer and impulsing wave 3 (Typically 1.618 to 2.618 times the large Green Wave 1 through 5 now Primary Wave 1) is where some truly strong profit generation will occur both for the CME Futures traders and the smart Fractal Wave aware BTC swing cycle Hodlers... who will sell at the top of B and buy back in at the bottom of C and then Hodl like their financial futures depend upon it... Fibonacci was a Genius and Maths do not lie.

HTH...

Hint: Wave 1 start 10K to Wave 5 end 65K = 55K times 1.618 = 89K
Waves ABC target end = 37K + 89K = 126K Primary Wave 3 Target +/- the Daily ATR Range.

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I have to admit, when I first saw this post I was skeptical. I am, in general, skeptical of technical analysis, going through the 2017 cycle it seemed like astrology. However, this prediction was pretty spot on, and I wish I had taken advantage and sold a bit at the top, to buy more back in or buy the same amount in and take some cash profits. Oh well. For the next "wave" I am definitely going to pay more keen attention on this thread and take advantage.
 

bucky

Ostrich
I have to admit, when I first saw this post I was skeptical. I am, in general, skeptical of technical analysis, going through the 2017 cycle it seemed like astrology. However, this prediction was pretty spot on, and I wish I had taken advantage and sold a bit at the top, to buy more back in or buy the same amount in and take some cash profits. Oh well. For the next "wave" I am definitely going to pay more keen attention on this thread and take advantage.
I also wish I'd sold when DD and CPU more or less advised us to and then bought back on the proverbial dip. Might do it next time, if I understand what they're saying, but on the other hand with my luck it'll probably just moon. Feels like I can push a coin up single handedly by selling sometimes, or down by buying.
 
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