The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

Blade Runner

Ostrich
Orthodox
If I had to guess right now I say it hits 84-85k and then retraces some lower numbers, then climbs again. When exactly, is the 64,000 question. It could be that it hits 80+ by October and then cuts back, and then in Q1 finally goes over 100. The psychological barrier of 100 will be the last barrier, for those who have been in long enough. The rest will be straight gravy.
 

BURNΞR

Pelican
If I had to guess right now I say it hits 84-85k and then retraces some lower numbers, then climbs again. When exactly, is the 64,000 question. It could be that it hits 80+ by October and then cuts back, and then in Q1 finally goes over 100. The psychological barrier of 100 will be the last barrier, for those who have been in long enough. The rest will be straight gravy.

For me, BTC is canary in the coal mine. Some of my alts (ADA) have done well but when BTC craters I can expect it to lose most of its value in price. BTC might go above 150k but I am being careful to take profits along the way, especially as it crosses over 100k.
 

kel

Ostrich
Not going to give them the clicks, but FUD is being spread, of course:

lfkjasdf.png


Anti-bitcoin protests in El Salvador
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
If I had to guess right now I say it hits 84-85k and then retraces some lower numbers, then climbs again. When exactly, is the 64,000 question. It could be that it hits 80+ by October and then cuts back, and then in Q1 finally goes over 100. The psychological barrier of 100 will be the last barrier, for those who have been in long enough. The rest will be straight gravy.

I am looking at the same. I think it will be mostly sideways this month, before making a run up.

Screenshot at 2021-09-03 00-41-20.png

Interestingly the 2017 movement is currently mirroring the 2021 movement divided by ten.

In 2017 it:

- crashed to $3K
- sideways sub-$5K
- up to $8K *some panic selling*
- up to $20K
- crash


In 2021 it:
- crashed to $30K
- sideways sub-$50K (now)

Aug - Nov 2017 saw a recovery of BTC dominance, a pullback, before BTC sucking out of alts in the final run, followed by an alt rally while BTC fell.
 

Blade Runner

Ostrich
Orthodox
My feeling is generally it'll go well over 100 to 120-140 when it does , then pull back to the 80s, then make a new cycle that will culminate over 200k into 2023-24. Obviously, there are all sorts of events that could weaken or strengthen those moves, or be additive/exponential, in either direction.

@Coja Petrus Uscan, How much longer do you currently think equities stand with new all time highs repeating over and over? Will SVM finally be right that a slow 10-20% burn off will start this or next month into the new year? Or do we see rock n' roll markets for another 8-10 months?
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Not going to give them the clicks, but FUD is being spread, of course:

lfkjasdf.png


Anti-bitcoin protests in El Salvador
Considering how much the mainstream media gets wrong about Bitcoin, how much does the average El-Salvadoran know about it? Enough to protest? Highly doubtful.

My feeling is generally it'll go well over 100 to 120-140 when it does , then pull back to the 80s, then make a new cycle that will culminate over 200k into 2023-24. Obviously, there are all sorts of events that could weaken or strengthen those moves, or be additive/exponential, in either direction.

@Coja Petrus Uscan, How much longer do you currently think equities stand with new all time highs repeating over and over? Will SVM finally be right that a slow 10-20% burn off will start this or next month into the new year? Or do we see rock n' roll markets for another 8-10 months?

Have to separate this from the macro, though. If the Fed raises interest rates to above 1% and stops tapering then everything crashes, including Bitcoin. If CPI inflation is printing at 10%+ as commodities boom and supply chains don't repair, while the Fed keeps printing and keeps rates low then Bitcoin still has much further to run.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
How much longer do you currently think equities stand with new all time highs repeating over and over? Will SVM finally be right that a slow 10-20% burn off will start this or next month into the new year? Or do we see rock n' roll markets for another 8-10 months?

I have more or less forgotten about equities, since I don't think they can give us plebs a good entry point again.

It is difficult to see what tools they would have to use to inflate the economy again if it went into recession.

I don't think they can allow another recession, but they will be able to prop the economy up for an indefinite period.

If there is another recession I think it will likely usher in the act of Orange Man, part 2; and mainstream European parties will get the boot.

They have used quite a lot of shenanigans to keep things working in their favour since 2008, especially in Italy. But in the materialist society, people have been slowly ebbing away from the mainstream parties as their declining living standards are papered over in the mainstream.

With The Great Reset I think they face a stark issue in that they need to move people into a UBI safe-space, where they can live more or less the same as they do now, but without work. And I can't see that happening. Then there is the issue of degrading the economies and cultures they control, while those they don't are ramping up against them.

I believe as soon as any considerable event pushes the economy down, they will print over it. And they will continue that until this system is spent, which I don't think would me more than around ten years.

So with no window for stocks, I am only really looking at crypto, unless anyone has any good pointers.
 
I think equities continue up, it’s basically a savings account, like the Venezuelan stock market. interest rates can’t be raised, the public and private debts are far too large. Allowing the treasury yield to rise would strengthen the dollar to a point that most of the worlds economy would collapse…China is a creditor holding US denominated debt all over the third world in strategic places. If the 3rd world defaults because of a strong dollar, China scoops up untold hard assets. The Fed will print to keep yields down, and at an accelerating pace. Public and private debt in US is 85T, 400% of GDP, not including 300T unfunded liabilities. The dollar will be used to prop up bonds for maybe a decade, but the collapse is all but assured imho. There is only 1 logical way to de-leverage the debt, and that is monetization. How much debasement? In 2008 GFC, to debase the dollar enough to deleverage the sovereign debt/GDP to 60% would have been $1200/oz gold to $5000/oz. To do it today would require gold go from $1800/oz to $50,000/oz. Math says this house of cards is coming down.
There will be some pretext to close banks, markets,etc. Could be war, pandemic, I don’t know. Those in power will know the jig is up before we do, and freeze capital. Whatever is in Bitcoin at that moment, could be the only thing left when the dust settles. Look at Argentina for a recent playbook.

Edit: watch sovereign CDS rates, the default risk will start rising in the smaller economies, (which will spike demand for treasuries, keeping rates low) but if developed world economies CDS spreads start rising, that’s when I’m 100% BTC with just monthly expenses anywhere else.
 
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Parmesan

Woodpecker
When I hear dialogue like this it makes me realize how many people participating in Bitcoin don't even understand Bitcoin. The dollar is obviously devaluing, and the elite are actively trying to install a technocratic, monetary reset, and you guys are still trying to buy and sell dips for fiat gains. The whole point of Bitcoin is to exit the system.
The problem is, all the hype around bitcoin the last 3+ years has been its use as a deflationary store of wealth (that happens to be rising quickly in value). It’s basically a gold alternative at this point. In the 1.0 bubble there was more speculation and experimentation about its use as a paypal/bank replacement (currency). I haven’t followed bitcoin closely in a while, but from what I read, it seems like various alt coins may eventually be better suited for frequent, small transactions. But maybe the issues with mining centralization and transaction efficiency are being resolved with bitcoin, I haven’t paid much attention.

I agree, it’s all about exiting the system, but unfortunately the ecosystem to transact in crypto isn’t quite dead simple enough for normies yet. It’s also too easy to lock yourself out of your coins if you don’t know what you are doing, and I think we need a slow transition to get people used to the responsibility of essentially self banking in crypto. Your grandma shops on Amazon now and uses YouTube and Facebook, but it took a while to get there.
 
The problem is, all the hype around bitcoin the last 3+ years has been its use as a deflationary store of wealth (that happens to be rising quickly in value). It’s basically a gold alternative at this point. In the 1.0 bubble there was more speculation and experimentation about its use as a paypal/bank replacement (currency). I haven’t followed bitcoin closely in a while, but from what I read, it seems like various alt coins may eventually be better suited for frequent, small transactions. But maybe the issues with mining centralization and transaction efficiency are being resolved with bitcoin, I haven’t paid much attention.

I agree, it’s all about exiting the system, but unfortunately the ecosystem to transact in crypto isn’t quite dead simple enough for normies yet. It’s also too easy to lock yourself out of your coins if you don’t know what you are doing, and I think we need a slow transition to get people used to the responsibility of essentially self banking in crypto. Your grandma shops on Amazon now and uses YouTube and Facebook, but it took a while to get there.
BTC is all about staying decentralized. The lightning network is a layer 2 on BTC that allows near instant transactions for very low fees. The main problem it solves is where to put your wealth where it can never be stolen via taxation, debasement, or confiscation. I only think in fiat terms because I want to get more fiat to buy more BTC. Other coins may have some utility, and go up faster in this bull run, but BTC is where I would put my life savings.
Get a small amount and play with it, see how it works. Once ready to get more, you can secure it with a multi sig wallet in conjunction with an institution, or multiple keys with a trusted family member, etc. Learn more about it, your future self will thank you.
Start with a user friendly lightning enabled wallet like Blue wallet or Breez. Hit receive button in the wallet and copy and paste the address PM me if you want and I’ll send you some BTC.

it can be used for transactions, but you never need to, nor does It make sense because of the tax code. Just use it as an appreciating asset that you can use for a collateralized loan if you need money. There is no need to transact it unless you need ivermectin from India.
it’s also financial censorship proof. You can still buy ammo, guns, no matter if Biden resurrects Operation Chokepoint, or we get social credit scores. You can’t be un banked, because you own a piece of the bank. It is truly FU money. Remember when go fund me and other crowdfunding closed down Kyle Rittenhouse? Can’t stop BTC…
 
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Parmesan

Woodpecker
Once ready to get more, you can secure it with a multi sig wallet in conjunction with an institution, or multiple keys with a trusted family member, etc. Learn more about it, your future self will thank you.
Start with a user friendly lightning enabled wallet like Blue wallet or Breez. Hit receive button in the wallet and copy and paste the address PM me if you want and I’ll send you some BTC.
I know how to use BTC, it's been a couple years but I'm sure I could get back into it. I'm talking a normie non-crypto enthusiast sitting on their iphone. They want to press a couple buttons on pretty a app, and be done. I'm a BTC/crypto bull, but it's not at Venmo levels of simplicity yet, which is unfortunately what normies expect.
 

budoslavic

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
Ukraine has officially passed a law to legalize Bitcoin.

Ukraine is the latest country to legalize bitcoin as the cryptocurrency slowly goes global​

  • In a nearly unanimous vote, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted a law that legalizes and regulates cryptocurrency.
  • The bill was set in motion in 2020 – and now heads to the desk of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
  • Until today, dealing in crypto in Ukraine has existed in a legal gray area.
Ukraine is the fifth country in as many weeks to lay down some ground rules for the cryptocurrency market, a sign that governments around the world are realizing that bitcoin is here to stay.

In a nearly unanimous vote, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted a law that legalizes and regulates cryptocurrency. The bill was set in motion in 2020 – and heads to the desk of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Until today, crypto in Ukraine has existed in a legal gray area.

Locals were allowed to buy and exchange virtual currencies, but companies and exchanges dealing in crypto were often under close watch by law enforcement.

According to the Kyiv Post, authorities have trended toward taking a combative stance when it comes to virtual cash, regarding it as a “scam,” raiding crypto-related businesses, and “often confiscating expensive equipment without any grounds.”

In August, for example, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) blocked a network of what it called “clandestine cryptocurrency exchanges” running in the capital city Kyiv. The SBU claimed these exchanges were facilitating money laundering and providing anonymity of transactions.

The new legislation also spells out certain protections against fraud for those who own bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and in a first for Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada unicameral parliament, lawmakers have taken a stab at defining core terminology in the world of crypto. If signed by the president, virtual assets, digital wallets and private keys are terms that will be enshrined in Ukrainian law.

Unlike El Salvador’s move to adopt bitcoin as legal tender, Ukraine’s crypto law does not facilitate the rollout of bitcoin as a form of payment and does not put it on an equal footing with the hryvnia, the country’s national currency.

However, Thursday’s vote by the former nuclear power is part of a wider push by Kyiv to lean into bitcoin.

By 2022, the country plans to open the cryptocurrency market to businesses and investors, according to the Kyiv Post. Top state officials have also been touting their crypto street cred to investors and venture capital funds in Silicon Valley.

On an official state visit to the U.S. last month, Zelenskyy spoke of Ukraine’s budding “legal innovative market for virtual assets” as a selling point for investment, and Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov said the country was modernizing its payment market so that its National Bank would be able to to issue digital currency.

But to bitcoin backers like Jeremy Rubin, Ukraine’s new law and political promises such as these don’t amount to much.

“Ukraine’s improved legal status for bitcoin is a laudable symbolic measure that we progress towards a world that respects individual rights universally,” said Rubin, CEO of bitcoin R&D lab Judica. “But it is only symbolic — bitcoin seeks neither permission nor forgiveness in its mission to protect persecuted communities from unjust governments.”

Latest domino to fall​


Ukraine joins a long list of countries folding bitcoin into national law.

Just this week, El Salvador became the first country to both adopt bitcoin as legal tender and hold it on its balance sheet. President Nayib Bukele has essentially tethered his political fate to the outcome of this nationwide bitcoin experiment.

Two weeks ago, Cuba — a notoriously rigid government still set in traditional Marxist ways — passed a law to recognize and regulate cryptocurrencies, citing “reasons of socioeconomic interest.”

Last month, the U.S. proposed rules around crypto “brokers” in its $1 trillion infrastructure bill, and a new German law now allows funds previously barred from investing in crypto to allocate up to 20% to virtual currencies like bitcoin.

Panama appears to be next on deck. The Central American country is kicking around a draft of its own cryptocurrency law.

This list is hardly comprehensive — it just appears to be the latest pattern of dominos to fall, as more governments acknowledge the staying power of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.
 

Monopolytm, Federal Reserve Edition


Imagine playing a game of Monopolytm. You aren't exactly winning, but you own a few properties, and even have 2 railroads. You collect $10 here, and the occasional $50 when someone hits one of your railroads, and that nice $200 for passing Go. You are able to save money on some turns, but every time you land on a property you need, its right after a bad turn that doesn't leave you enough money to buy it.

Player A, sitting next to you, is in worse shape. He could land on almost anything and go bankrupt, unless he can pass Go first. Every turn he takes is with dread because if the dice don't fall right, he is out of the game entirely. He hardly ever lands on a property that isn't already owned. With each round of game-play, there are fewer and fewer spaces that he can land on without going bust.

Player X is having a great time and thinks he's a Monopolytm genius. Player X owns Boardwalk and Park Place, not to mention Pennsylvania Ave., North Carolina Ave., Pacific Ave., which went from houses to hotels after You and Player A went around the board a few times. Player X doesn't need to pass Go, he actually doesn't even care what his dice roll is. He doesn't care if he goes to jail. No matter what he does, he just keeps making more money. He has enough money to buy everything he lands on without even thinking. He spends more time counting $100s and exchanging with the bank for $500s than thinking about the game.

Player A finally needs to roll a 7 to get past Go, but rolls a 5 instead and lands on Park Place. He owes Player X $1500 and is obviously bankrupt now without needing to count. Player X is having so much fun, he wants to keep playing. He gives you and Player A each $1000 from the bank. Also he raises everyone's salary for passing Go to $400! Player A keeps playing, hoping to get enough to finally buy some properties. Player X says for game-play balance, rents and property prices have to double as well.

The next turn Player X lands on one of your railroads, and has to pay double the normal rent. You only have 2 railroads, but you get $100 in rent. Player A has managed to get $800 from passing Go without landing on anything, but just when it looks like he is going to do it 3 times in a row, he lands right on Boardwalk. With the hotel, normal rent is $2000, but now its double, so he owes Player X $4000 in rent.

Player A is bankrupt again, and now even the bank itself has no money. Player X has almost all the money in front of him! Player X suggests writing loan amounts on scrap paper, letting the bank loan You and Player A $10,000! You take the scraps of paper, denominated in $1000 each. And he says we can all collect quadruple salaries, $800 each time we pass Go. Properties and rents will have to quadruple too, but we will all be richer!

You have a stroke of luck and land on Free Parking, which has a pile of cash in it. On the next round you land on New York Ave., the last property that you needed to finally be able to build houses. Player X says you need to pay off half your debt to the bank before you can buy it though, and now it costs $800 since all the property prices went up. You do the math and don't have enough to buy it. You do some more math and realize the game is only going to go in one direction. Player X is the only player who is having fun, not even caring what he lands on. He buys New York Ave. as soon as he lands on it, without even needing to count his money, in fact he doesn't bother counting out the $100s, he just puts 2 $500s in the bank.

At this point you are getting bored with the game. What money you have left, you return to the empty bank. Before you get up from the table, you take your phone out of your pocket, open an app, and buy some Bitcoin, since you remember seeing that it “crashed” by 40% on the news. You stand up, and as you leave the room you hear what sounds like shrapnel as dozens of game pieces hit the floor, followed by the faint thud of the game board. You don't know what happens next between Player A and Player X, you just walk out the front door and don't look back. You are Player B.
 

Caduceus

Pelican

Monopolytm, Federal Reserve Edition


Imagine playing a game of Monopolytm. You aren't exactly winning, but you own a few properties, and even have 2 railroads. You collect $10 here, and the occasional $50 when someone hits one of your railroads, and that nice $200 for passing Go. You are able to save money on some turns, but every time you land on a property you need, its right after a bad turn that doesn't leave you enough money to buy it.

Player A, sitting next to you, is in worse shape. He could land on almost anything and go bankrupt, unless he can pass Go first. Every turn he takes is with dread because if the dice don't fall right, he is out of the game entirely. He hardly ever lands on a property that isn't already owned. With each round of game-play, there are fewer and fewer spaces that he can land on without going bust.

Player X is having a great time and thinks he's a Monopolytm genius. Player X owns Boardwalk and Park Place, not to mention Pennsylvania Ave., North Carolina Ave., Pacific Ave., which went from houses to hotels after You and Player A went around the board a few times. Player X doesn't need to pass Go, he actually doesn't even care what his dice roll is. He doesn't care if he goes to jail. No matter what he does, he just keeps making more money. He has enough money to buy everything he lands on without even thinking. He spends more time counting $100s and exchanging with the bank for $500s than thinking about the game.

Player A finally needs to roll a 7 to get past Go, but rolls a 5 instead and lands on Park Place. He owes Player X $1500 and is obviously bankrupt now without needing to count. Player X is having so much fun, he wants to keep playing. He gives you and Player A each $1000 from the bank. Also he raises everyone's salary for passing Go to $400! Player A keeps playing, hoping to get enough to finally buy some properties. Player X says for game-play balance, rents and property prices have to double as well.

The next turn Player X lands on one of your railroads, and has to pay double the normal rent. You only have 2 railroads, but you get $100 in rent. Player A has managed to get $800 from passing Go without landing on anything, but just when it looks like he is going to do it 3 times in a row, he lands right on Boardwalk. With the hotel, normal rent is $2000, but now its double, so he owes Player X $4000 in rent.

Player A is bankrupt again, and now even the bank itself has no money. Player X has almost all the money in front of him! Player X suggests writing loan amounts on scrap paper, letting the bank loan You and Player A $10,000! You take the scraps of paper, denominated in $1000 each. And he says we can all collect quadruple salaries, $800 each time we pass Go. Properties and rents will have to quadruple too, but we will all be richer!

You have a stroke of luck and land on Free Parking, which has a pile of cash in it. On the next round you land on New York Ave., the last property that you needed to finally be able to build houses. Player X says you need to pay off half your debt to the bank before you can buy it though, and now it costs $800 since all the property prices went up. You do the math and don't have enough to buy it. You do some more math and realize the game is only going to go in one direction. Player X is the only player who is having fun, not even caring what he lands on. He buys New York Ave. as soon as he lands on it, without even needing to count his money, in fact he doesn't bother counting out the $100s, he just puts 2 $500s in the bank.

At this point you are getting bored with the game. What money you have left, you return to the empty bank. Before you get up from the table, you take your phone out of your pocket, open an app, and buy some Bitcoin, since you remember seeing that it “crashed” by 40% on the news. You stand up, and as you leave the room you hear what sounds like shrapnel as dozens of game pieces hit the floor, followed by the faint thud of the game board. You don't know what happens next between Player A and Player X, you just walk out the front door and don't look back. You are Player B.

giphy.gif
 

Robert High Hawk

Kingfisher
Posted already in the Crypto lounge, but in short, what a pathetic drop considering the possible implications. The fact it only went down 5% and is already climbing back up is great news for Bitcoin.

In fact, this is a huge FUD killer, assuming it keeps climbing back up to 50k+.

"But, but... what if the governments ban it!!?!?!!"

"You mean like when the second largest economy in the world did and next to nothing happened?"
 
People like Brent Johnson (who‘s opinion I respect) and Mike Green (statist #**&) are convinced that governments will go to war with Bitcoin at some point, and that they have a good chance of winning that war. While I have no doubt real battle is yet to be fought over Bitcoin, I still haven’t heard a convincing argument about how governments can possibly “win” against Bitcoin, in the face of game theory predictions that those governments who embrace it will have such overwhelming advantages.
Have any of you heard a convincing argument?
I’d like to listen to someone who poses logical arguments against the hyperbitcoinization that seems inevitable.
 

scorpion

Hummingbird
Gold Member
The answer is simple: Bitcoin is a closed system. The price of Bitcoin itself can therefore only be measured in non-Bitcoin units that exist external to the system. It's like if you asked, "scorpion, how tall are you?" and I replied, "I am one scorpion tall." My answer would be correct, but completely useless to you in any practical sense because it is entirely self-referential. This is why Bitcoin by necessity requires measurement, and ultimately conversion, to some other currency. If Bitcoin cannot be converted to other currencies, then it cannot practically be measured in those currencies. And if it cannot be measured in those currencies, then its true value becomes undefinable, aka worthless.

The only way around this would be if Bitcoin was able to be used as an actual currency itself, being exchanged directly for goods. An intrinsic value could then be established based on its market purchasing power. The problem is that this is not realistic, and could very easily be shut down by governments simply passing a law making it illegal for businesses to transact in Bitcoin.

Think about it like this: what is the value of a Bitcoin if you cannot measure it in dollars, yuan, gold, or any other currency or commodity, and you cannot legally exchange it directly for goods anywhere in the world? All your Bitcoins would be sitting there safely in your wallet. But what are they worth? You literally couldn't even know. There is no mechanism for price discovery, and no market. Everyone would be holding Bitcoins that serve no functional purpose. They just exist. It would be like if you "owned" a planet that was four-thousand light years away. Congratulations, you own an entire planet. Unfortunately, it has less practical value to you than the quarter you just pulled out of your couch cushion.
 
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