The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
Right now I'm holding my crypto in a mix between:
Celsius
Blockfi
Voyager
Gemini

I also have a tiny amount on Cash App. It's great to have interest payments from Celsius or Voyager, but I worry about security. Has anyone thoroughly evaluated these? It seems like having 2-3 of these seems more secure/easier than holding a Ledger wallet.

In particular, I'm considering putting it into Gemini and turning off the "earn" function, just looking for storage really.

Search the forum for Blockfi. This has been discussed. Blockifi/Gemini is likely the most secure.

Crypto.com now has $750m insurance, but they probably hold billions in assets. NEXO has $250m insurance.

For security, hold in cold storage - SafePal, using your own generated keys (search the forum). Then you can use DeFi for yield.

I only use a few centralised products for yield and diversification.

My main worry with centralised is not hacking, but that one day I will be blocked from withdrawing due to new legislation, like in The Netherlands.
 

lonewolf1968

Kingfisher
Isn't ETF the reason BTC went to 20k in 2017 and then dumped thereafter? Or was that Futures? In any case this isn't spot ETF we are getting it's some fake version where they don't need to settle in actual BTC.
Yeah but that was at the top when Bitcoin was going parabolic, this reminds me more of that Paypal pump at 12k, im still a newbie so i dont know What im doing tho lol. Im in it for the long term.
 

Talus

Sparrow
Having a Bitcoin ETF denominated in USD, is like having a USD ETF denominated in pesos. Why not just hold US dollers? Likewise, why not just hold Bitcoin? Traditional finance just can't wrap their heads around it yet. Bitcoin is not an investment, it's just superior money. Plain and simple.

That said, it's impossible to not be bullish these days. When you realize that fiat markets still have no idea what Bitcoin is, or where it's going, you realize how early we still are.
 

Talus

Sparrow
Is now a good time to invest? I know nothing about it all, except that i missed the boat.

Thinking of just putting a grand or two in and forgetting about it for a year or two.
Did you even read my post above yours?
Bitcoin is not an investment, it's just superior money. Plain and simple.
When you realize that fiat markets still have no idea what Bitcoin is, or where it's going, you realize how EARLY we still are.
Put a portion of your normally allocated savings in Bitcoin. Weekly, bi-weekly, whatever works for you and your income.
 
Is now a good time to invest? I know nothing about it all, except that i missed the boat.

Thinking of just putting a grand or two in and forgetting about it for a year or two.
The best time to invest in Bitcoin is yesterday. The 2nd best time is today. Just buy some and forget about it for 10 years. 2 years is not enough…if you had bought 2 BTC in 2013 for $36, and sold them in 2015 for $2000, wouldn‘t you rather have them today at $120k? Make sure you do some form of cold storage with multiple backups: hardware wallet, paper wallet, or brain wallet. You didn’t miss the boat…DCA…dont fomo. As tempting as it is to go all in to get max gains, when you have a 50% dump you will feel a lot better with dirty fiat on the sidelines to buy the dip…eventually you will go deep enough to stop thinking in terms of dollar value…I actually wish it would stay down longer, because that’s more I can buy.
 
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Having a Bitcoin ETF denominated in USD, is like having a USD ETF denominated in pesos. Why not just hold US dollers? Likewise, why not just hold Bitcoin? Traditional finance just can't wrap their heads around it yet. Bitcoin is not an investment, it's just superior money. Plain and simple.

That said, it's impossible to not be bullish these days. When you realize that fiat markets still have no idea what Bitcoin is, or where it's going, you realize how early we still are.
It gives people who are stuck in employer 401k an alternative to stonks that are 4x overbought.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
Is now a good time to invest? I know nothing about it all, except that i missed the boat.

Thinking of just putting a grand or two in and forgetting about it for a year or two.

The consensus here and among people who have been accurate at plotting where the price will go see BTC going to $150K-300K. Some par that back to $100K+; and the crypto market cap going to $6T-12T. It's currently $2.6T.

Putting it in for a year or two will likely lead to bad results. Depending on how high it goes I think it will correct to the region of $30K. Either buy and hold, or try and time your exit and then buy back at the ensuing bottom.

Most people worth listening to see this bull market extending out to Q1/Q2 next year.

Buy and forget + then buy in every month. For almost everyone buying every month is the best method. If you bought $50 every month since the beginning of 2013, you'd have close to $500,000 now. Going forward you might be able to get similar results by buying SOL, as you would have got similar results buying ETH.

For more sophisticated, you can try and time the top and sell. Picking the top is difficult, but the bottom is easy. BTC always bottoms on its halving cycle (and flash crashes) <30 on RSI with 1W candles.

If you want the chance to get better gains than BTC, throw in some SOL, RAY and anything else that might have a better shot. It's going to be tough picking anything 10X now though.

My expectation is that BTC will gain back dominance and shoot over $80K soon.
 

Talus

Sparrow
It gives people who are stuck in employer 401k an alternative to stonks that are 4x overbought.
A fiat alternative to a fiat problem. There is no real connection between a bitcoin ETF and actual Bitcoin. The ETF is just a made-up financial package put together by fiat maxis, to steal fiat from other fiat maxis. But you already know this. I guess I can admit it is at least a step in the right direction.
 

Robert High Hawk

Kingfisher
Is now a good time to invest? I know nothing about it all, except that i missed the boat.

Thinking of just putting a grand or two in and forgetting about it for a year or two.

I know this sounds trite, but I would invest in bitcoin first and foremost because you feel it's a genuinely interesting form of money and financial independence.

That said, if you have a long time horizon, then bitcoin, even as a pure investment, is not a bad idea. Key here is long time horizon of YEARS not months.
 

Blade Runner

Ostrich
Orthodox
If a big market draw down happens next year, either quickly or prolonged for months (let's say over 30%) does BTC go down with that one last time before crazy policy decisions catapult it to the final prediction stage of 200k-1mil?
 
If a big market draw down happens next year, either quickly or prolonged for months (let's say over 30%) does BTC go down with that one last time before crazy policy decisions catapult it to the final prediction stage of 200k-1mil?
That is one likely possibility, but I would also say that it's possible it does not, once people realize that it's actually a risk Off asset, instead of risk on.
 
A fiat alternative to a fiat problem. There is no real connection between a bitcoin ETF and actual Bitcoin. The ETF is just a made-up financial package put together by fiat maxis, to steal fiat from other fiat maxis. But you already know this. I guess I can admit it is at least a step in the right direction.
100% agree. If it were easier and less costly to liquidate my existing 401k I would, and buy btc with it. I think it will be in danger in 10 years or so. Right now I'm rolling the dice, because losing half of it to taxes and penalties VS the risk of confiscation at the moment is not worth the cost.
 

Blade Runner

Ostrich
Orthodox
It is funny that we are entering a 10 year period where even educated and pretty smart normies are so caught up in recency bias (stocks, index investing, "saving on taxes" by putting loads into the 401k or other retirement vehicle, etc) that they'll have no idea when the money printing and/or government confiscates the shit out of that - and act like it was unforeseen.

I often wonder just how many people view the world as we do, that is, how rare are we in terms of critical thinking and appropriate planning? I say this not to boost our own egos but I've just been staggered over and over for the last 3 years especially, about how hamstrung the pretty intelligent to midwit people are. I think my conclusion is that the emotional and group madness factors are the real difference between actual intelligence and wisdom, as opposed to regurgitation and puppetry of people, fed by the system.

I'm far more disappointed than I thought I would ever be, and I didn't have a high expectation to start. Sigh.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
I often wonder just how many people view the world as we do, that is, how rare are we in terms of critical thinking and appropriate planning?...

I'm far more disappointed than I thought I would ever be, and I didn't have a high expectation to start. Sigh.

This forum has a good track record of being on the money with important trends:

- Bitcoin thread, March 2013
- SMV rules (recently proved with a study I posted in Dating in The US thread)
- Trump thread (hot from the beginning)
- Great Reset thread (from the beginning)
- DeFi thread, November 2020
- Inflation thread

That is what I can think of off the top of my head. Then there was COVID. I didn't pay any attention to the reporting for a long time. By May 2020 I realised it was going to kill about 3 million people a year and I was going to live as if it didn't exist. But I remember dipping into the COVID thread in about April 2020 and seeing someone wrote,

"This isn't going to end." - this referring to lockdowns, masks, vaccines etc. I thought - maybe, but hopefully it will be irrelevant soon.

If there is a new important trend or event, the forum is on it.

There are people who are not smart enough to compute more complex topics, those who don't care/are distracted and those who could compute reality but don't when reality offends their feelings.

On the latter group there are no people who have an emotional attachment to the equation 2 + 2 = 4 ... yet. But a lot of people have emotional issues computing the over representations of black males in violent and property crimes (which just went up). This is not necessarily just a liberal thing, but it is stronger with them as they make decisions far more often on emotion (see MBTI studies).

Then there is another group of people who are considerably empirical, who will ignore emotions, or not have any to a broad range of information. I would split this into red-pill types (Roosh V1), right-libertarian types (Ron Paul) and intellectual dark web types (Bret Weinstein). These people see the same problems, but have different solutions.

One thing that unites all these people is a preponderance for evolutionary biological takes or preservatives, which is enabled by their low levels of emotional decision making. The left is, of course, perilously afraid of evolutionary biology, because it is a minefield of emotional nuclear bombs that destroy most of their made up beliefs and narratives.

My gut feeling is that only 4% of people are broadly empirical and about 10% who are somewhat empirical.

Going back many years I remember thinking, "What is the point in believing things that are not true? Just imagine being buried and on your tombstone it says all the thing you believed that were false ... to the grave." Most people prefer that. It is more comfortable.

Like everyone here, I have gone through close to 20 years of explosions, smacked gobs, speechlessness, being told I am mad, bad and stupid for being able to look at lots of different moving parts in the world and see roughly what's going on and what direction we are going in. My ideas of what is going on and where we are going has improved. This is a talent that hones over time. Looking back I said, often sheepishly, things are going to go like X, to various abuse, attacks, ridicule. Now these paths have obviously been trod, you don't get any credit. You are only more bad, mad and stupid.

There is no point in listening to normies on anything. Any life advice or narrative they spin is like poison seeping into your ears. Just keep following the trail of truth and picking up the gains from their late money entries into crypto as is goes parabolic.

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