The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

joost

Kingfisher
Has anyone seen Michael Saylor's giveaway going on right now? I'm wondering about the tax implications of this, and I'm loving what he's doing. He has a live stream with Pompliano currently.

I had respect for him until he gave a bogus statistic. He said:
"Since we started buying Bitcoin, the price went up 120%."

BUT!

He continued to buy at high 40'. He's far from stupid and he knew it was misleading.

Shitcoins (crypto) are down from 80% to 100%. Interest rates were artificially low. Maybe more margin calls will happen and ANY asset can go down.

I believe in Bitcoin but we don't know if it'll take another 2 years to recover. And that's IF.
 

Codreanu Reeves

Pigeon
Non-Christian
I foresaw support at high 20s, and that's what happened. Could it go back down? Yes, but I don't think so until the next "crash" in the cycle. I say we go up from here and people will be very surprised.
I think you are right. We might see low 20s but I don't think so.
Here's what I am thinking: considering what just happened with Luna, it says a lot that BTC only dropped to about $25k, and briefly at that. The Luna debacle was the craziest thing I have seen since getting into crypto in 2018. A top 10 coin going to zero, billions of dollars lost, people getting rekt, it's a bad situation. And also keep in mind this happened in an investing environment that was already risk-off due to fed tightening and stocks and crypto dropping 50% from ATHs. People were already very twitchy and fearful.
So I'm thinking, if all this didn't cause BTC to crash below $20k, what would? Either something more catastrophic than the Luna situation-- possible sure, but probable...?-- or an extended bear market, which I don't think the Fed will let happen.
No one knows for sure, but those are my thoughts.
 

Blade Runner

Hummingbird
Orthodox
Here's what I am thinking: considering what just happened with Luna, it says a lot that BTC only dropped to about $25k, and briefly at that.
I've been thinking and saying this all week, especially when I've read all the headlines "crypto and btc are crashing" or "why are cryptos and btc crashing?". BTC has been in a down trend and it just went down a little more, when other coins (esp the one you point out) got totally exposed, manipulated, found out - whatever - to basically their destruction. And as you state, in a down market already.

This is clearly (but paradoxically) bullish for BTC long term, in that it is obviously the strongest and will survive. For the last 5 days it has held major support at around 28k and is currently back over 30. As I thought several months ago, this is the actual support level, and I maintain that the chartists, barring huge news, will be wrong in their suggestion that it goes anywhere near the low 20s.
 

Knight.of.Logos

Woodpecker
Orthodox
3elvwl0ikg391.png


This puts it things into perspective a bit.
 

bucky

Hummingbird
Other Christian
Any thoughts on 23k? I was always skeptical of BTC hitting 100k this year but hoped the conventional wisdom here that it would was correct. Definitely didn't think if would be heading for 20k at this point either though. I'm pretty shocked. Looks like gold is going up a little, while silver stays stagnant, but I figure it can't be that the masses are choosing metals over crypto.
 

zoom

Kingfisher
Catholic
Gold Member
Looks like gold is going up a little, while silver stays stagnant, but I figure it can't be that the masses are choosing metals over crypto.

BTC and precious metals are not related. BTC trades like a high-risk tech stock, and precious metals (especially gold) trade more like stores of value.
 

chance vought

Woodpecker
Protestant
Not sure where the bottom is, but my hope is we stay low for the next year or two, longer if possible. There has to be extreme pain and extreme gain for wide, even distribution. A slow, Trojan horse like adoption is what has the best chance of success without bloodshed. A rapid collapse of fiat would be catastrophic for everyone.

As much as I would like to see Michael Saylor‘s speculative attack on fiat succeed, it is not a bad thing if he gets margin called and has to sell some of his BTC to the little guys at fire sale prices.

I want the Goldmans of the world buying at $40k and selling at $12k.
The big guys, institutions, and banks are forced to sell now…which is why I am grateful to have the conviction that I do. It would be nice to be able to buy the exact bottom, but that is of course unknowable.

I pretend I can go back in time to 2013, and divide the bitcoin price by 1,000. Do I worry if I can buy it for $69, or $20? Nope. I’m buying it for my future self, who doesn’t care if I paid $69k or $20k. Just go back to page 1 of this thread, and the discussions of $20 Bitcoin vs $45 seem almost silly. You want to yell at them through time to just buy.
 

kurtybro

Woodpecker
Not sure where the bottom is, but my hope is we stay low for the next year or two, longer if possible. There has to be extreme pain and extreme gain for wide, even distribution. A slow, Trojan horse like adoption is what has the best chance of success without bloodshed. A rapid collapse of fiat would be catastrophic for everyone.

As much as I would like to see Michael Saylor‘s speculative attack on fiat succeed, it is not a bad thing if he gets margin called and has to sell some of his BTC to the little guys at fire sale prices.

I want the Goldmans of the world buying at $40k and selling at $12k.
The big guys, institutions, and banks are forced to sell now…which is why I am grateful to have the conviction that I do. It would be nice to be able to buy the exact bottom, but that is of course unknowable.

I pretend I can go back in time to 2013, and divide the bitcoin price by 1,000. Do I worry if I can buy it for $69, or $20? Nope. I’m buying it for my future self, who doesn’t care if I paid $69k or $20k. Just go back to page 1 of this thread, and the discussions of $20 Bitcoin vs $45 seem almost silly. You want to yell at them through time to just buy.

So you believe the distribution of BTC is becoming more even/equitable with this crash? Interesting, i think if that's the case then it's very good for the future. I'm not so sure myself as "little" people tend to buy high sell low, but hopefully that's changing.
 

chance vought

Woodpecker
Protestant
So you believe the distribution of BTC is becoming more even/equitable with this crash? Interesting, i think if that's the case then it's very good for the future. I'm not so sure myself as "little" people tend to buy high sell low, but hopefully that's changing.
Just look at who has conviction about BTC long term….people like us. Who treats it as a tech stock as if it is just another PayPal? Traditional finance. Look at the distribution of coins over time, they become less and less concentrated.

The reason I think we have a year or 2 of pain is the Fed has a lot of runway for continuing QT in the form of 2 trillion in reverse repo. That’s 2 trillion in excess liquidity that banks can expand credit with. A credit market seizure would force more QE, but they have a big cushion at the moment it seems.
 
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nicolahcm

Sparrow
It is heading to 20k in my opinion. Just look at the order books in binance. There are many orders set at 20-21k.

I naively thought things could rally further, so did not take the profits back then. I now understand. The crypto market is full of people who tries to make a profit out of it. It is not like real-estate or stock market in which they have dividends and some more value other than speculation.

Let us see where the bottom settles. I think it is good to stay out for a while now and just watch in my opinion. It is risky to buy now.
If it breaks 20k it could go down even further. I suspect we will go down and stay there for a long time before rallying again.
 

mountainaire

Robin
Orthodox Inquirer
I foresaw support at high 20s, and that's what happened. Could it go back down? Yes, but I don't think so until the next "crash" in the cycle. I say we go up from here and people will be very surprised.
The collapse hasn't even started yet. When things start getting hairy and people are hard up, they will be selling their BTC for whatever they can get for it. I'm not trying to dissuade anyone from buying, but this certainly isn't the bottom. Not even close.
 

Sanctus

Robin
Protestant
I have lost 60-70% of my crypto portfolio over the last month or so. Should I just pull the plug?
Kind of feels like the game is up for now.
 
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