The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

Blade Runner

Hummingbird
Orthodox
I am in Russia and getting by from exchanging bank notes at 0%. There are groups like this:


Lots of people exchanging USDT for X.

Good to know that as long as I have my phone or hardware wallets I have another life line.
If you had to guess, would there be a chance for outsiders (let's say eastern orthodox) to come to some portion of the Russian Federation in the future? Or will it be too difficult for whatever reason?
 

Cynllo

Kingfisher
Other Christian
If you had to guess, would there be a chance for outsiders (let's say eastern orthodox) to come to some portion of the Russian Federation in the future? Or will it be too difficult for whatever reason?

I have had no problems and I'm a Limey. I have met some English speaking Orthodox and they are quite interested in the small revival of EO in America. There priest of some description is too. I would guess most Russians are not hostile to Europeans coming to their country. But I think about 15% are hostile to it. These are the people who support the Liberal Democratic (Russian nationalist party). Most Russians are like most Europeans in they don't see too much difference with some white inflow, but they really broadly don't like any other inflow. In particular I notice that Indians get stares of disgust. If you are not white in Russia, including say some Russian-central Asian hybrid, you will experience abuse in the street. Broadly, Russians ignore Central Asians. They also aren't that keen on Armenians and Georgians.

Naturally, there may be a growth in legal barriers to unfriendly nationals.
 

kurtybro

Woodpecker
I am in Russia and getting by from exchanging bank notes at 0%. There are groups like this:


Lots of people exchanging USDT for X.

Good to know that as long as I have my phone or hardware wallets I have another life line.

I'd personally be very careful about keeping significant amounts of USDT/USDC in a wallet for any extended period. There is a function within the smart contract itself which allows the "administrator" to freeze/blacklist any wallet address they want. Meaning you won't be able to spend coins from that address anymore.

Q: If I use USDC in my protocol/application, can my protocol/application be blocked?

A: USDC is designed with a high standard for trust, transparency and accountability. Circle and the Centre Consortium only block addresses when we are legally required. This includes court-ordered interventions as well as sanctions compliance following U.S. and international rules.


Although stablecoins are convenient, always remember that BTC is the *only* true decentralized, permission-less & censorship resistant currency out there.
 

OhHeyCindy

Sparrow
Catholic
i love btc for its ease of use to transfer money, but philosophically EMJ's argument that it's not money because it doesn't have the stamp of the soverign is hard to ignore and has made me more short on it. And of course if bitcoin were ever regulated to become the national currency it would defeat its purpose as an alternative currency. i think it will only ever remain a speculative asset for dreamers/libertarians. you will never not have to convert your btc to its USD value to know how much it's worth, and that says it all.Again, i've held btc for years due to it being extremely convenient and necessary for my job, but these are my thoughts.
 

kurtybro

Woodpecker
i love btc for its ease of use to transfer money, but philosophically EMJ's argument that it's not money because it doesn't have the stamp of the soverign is hard to ignore and has made me more short on it. And of course if bitcoin were ever regulated to become the national currency it would defeat its purpose as an alternative currency. i think it will only ever remain a speculative asset for dreamers/libertarians. you will never not have to convert your btc to its USD value to know how much it's worth, and that says it all.Again, i've held btc for years due to it being extremely convenient and necessary for my job, but these are my thoughts.

The future of the nationstate remains an open question with the advancing level of technology. I think simply switching from paper fiat to CBDC is not much of an upgrade, certainly will further hurt 99.9% of people. The technocrats believe that complete granular micromanagement control of the currency via the CBDC is the solution to the seemingly inevitable boom/bust cycles of fiat. (If only we could just have COMPLETE control at all times, then we could allocate resources optimally, people simply have too much free will in conducting their transactions which causes these volatile periods...wouldn't it be better if everyone were forced to simply obey like ants in a colony? LOL). It's always predicated on the assumption that TPTB SIMPLY KNOW BEST, they must be allowed to make all of the decisions unfettered, humans are useless monkeys who can be too unpredictable and are ultimately motivated by self-interested desires.

I believe this is simply not sustainable; people are quickly catching onto the game and realize that being dependent on fiat is a surefire recipe to poverty and slavery, the cycle seems to keep repeating itself. Money should not be subject to arbitrary dilution at the hands of clandestine hostile parties; that's not "money", it's something else. The temptation of past rulers to excessively print and debase their money is as old as the concept of currency itself. Except now they also want the power to monitor/surveil your activity in real time to "nudge" you in the "appropriate" direction, and have the option of completely shutting you down remotely at any time for misbehaving. Instantaneous communication and Cryptography allows for the building of superior parallel systems never before possible. If nation states openly try to crush it then they risk overplaying their hand and still not being able to do any meaningful damage. They are still quite incompetent, they usually operate by allowing opensource communities to develop some kind of powerful organic grassroots concept, and they eventually swoop in and attempt to centralize it hard. Zero creativity, just a psychotic compulsive need for power and control. The solution has to take this into consideration and be resiliently built from the ground up, Bitcoin could be the thing. There are still points of failure, and it will be a rocky road.
 

2Infinity

Woodpecker
Good question. I'm not an "investor". My logic is, if you think BTC is the shizzle, then holding no more than 5% should be abundant, if it's going to 1000x in the future, it's more than enough isn't it?

Can't say it will 1000x (I hope?) but sure, this is more than enough - if most pension / wealth funds did the same, actually even 1-2% allocation would be enough, BTC would quite easily hit the $100k mark.
I personally take more risk because my appetite for risk is higher and even if I lost 25% of my entire portfolio (i.e. all cryptos go to zero) I am at an age I can make up for it. If I was advising someone that is the average joe over 55 with average savings (can we even assume the average Joe has more than $10K in savings to invest beyond emergency cash these days?) , let's say an allocation of anywhere between 1-5% would be enough imo.
 
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2Infinity

Woodpecker
When the Fed capitulates and publicly says they cannot stop inflation I speculate money will flow back into equities and crypto. What is happening now is similar to the Covid crash where people sold off for fiat to prepare for uncertain times. Eventually people come to their senses and money flows into scarce assets.

Is this your view? Basically the Fed is just talking tough causing the asset price demolitions we are seeing, and basically that's it?
I've heard both sides of the argument (i.e. Powell will continue to raise rates unabashed until he controls inflation because he's re-confirmed and fuck the Dems anyway since Repubs will take power by midterms) - I honestly really can't tell if he's ready to do the Vockler thing (if that's even possible with such US debt)
 
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2Infinity

Woodpecker
What is more concerning is what these Bitcoiners aren't talking about - like how btc price returns have rapidly diminished and fell short of almost every projection out there.

I agree there was a lot of market hype, but I do recall watching this one video where this trader dude (Gareth Soloway) actually did predict the drop to $20K on March 28th when it was around $47K. I haven't really followed him in depth or watched all his content so I can't really vouch if he's consistently accurate or just got a one-off correct among the many thousands of price predictions. He also obviously never predicted the LUNA / stablecoin shitshow that sparked this either.

 

Blade Runner

Hummingbird
Orthodox
The future of the nationstate remains an open question with the advancing level of technology. I think simply switching from paper fiat to CBDC is not much of an upgrade, certainly will further hurt 99.9% of people. The technocrats believe that complete granular micromanagement control of the currency via the CBDC is the solution to the seemingly inevitable boom/bust cycles of fiat. (If only we could just have COMPLETE control at all times, then we could allocate resources optimally, people simply have too much free will in conducting their transactions which causes these volatile periods...wouldn't it be better if everyone were forced to simply obey like ants in a colony? LOL). It's always predicated on the assumption that TPTB SIMPLY KNOW BEST, they must be allowed to make all of the decisions unfettered, humans are useless monkeys who can be too unpredictable and are ultimately motivated by self-interested desires.

I believe this is simply not sustainable; people are quickly catching onto the game and realize that being dependent on fiat is a surefire recipe to poverty and slavery, the cycle seems to keep repeating itself. Money should not be subject to arbitrary dilution at the hands of clandestine hostile parties; that's not "money", it's something else. The temptation of past rulers to excessively print and debase their money is as old as the concept of currency itself. Except now they also want the power to monitor/surveil your activity in real time to "nudge" you in the "appropriate" direction, and have the option of completely shutting you down remotely at any time for misbehaving. Instantaneous communication and Cryptography allows for the building of superior parallel systems never before possible. If nation states openly try to crush it then they risk overplaying their hand and still not being able to do any meaningful damage. They are still quite incompetent, they usually operate by allowing opensource communities to develop some kind of powerful organic grassroots concept, and they eventually swoop in and attempt to centralize it hard. Zero creativity, just a psychotic compulsive need for power and control. The solution has to take this into consideration and be resiliently built from the ground up, Bitcoin could be the thing. There are still points of failure, and it will be a rocky road.
Good post. I largely agree that their incompetence is being met also currently by their own debasement of the currency, which is a double-whammy for loss of power. Balkanization and/or ignoring central "powers" accelerates massively when they can no longer easily pay even their own bureaucrats or armed forces in an extended fashion (like was possible before).

I see BTC more of a rich/elite/enlightened (those with foresight) asset, one that allows a smaller few to escape the CBDC or "legitimized" stablecoin system. I believe one will have the option to borrow from it as has been the case with historical commodities, but they'll also be able to convert and swap if they so desire, and it will be much easier than people realize to do this stealthily if you aren't a huge mover or POI.

kurty, what's your take on what happens to all of the state pensioners - we can start there first - given how insolvent most of their funds are? Does the Fed come in and backstop them? Is that part of the inflationary strategy to roll things over into the future, laughing at the pensioners while they are technically paid back, but in 20-50% inflated dollars?
 

Blade Runner

Hummingbird
Orthodox
I agree there was a lot of market hype, but I do recall watching this one video where this trader dude (Gareth Soloway) actually did predict the drop to $20K on March 28th when it was around $47K. I haven't really followed him in depth or watched all his content so I can't really vouch if he's consistently accurate or just got a one-off correct among the many thousands of price predictions. He also obviously never predicted the LUNA / stablecoin shitshow that sparked this either.


He's been very accurate, and is now quite famous (on the financial internet) as a result. I'm happy for him. He's a long term BTC bull but thinks that the big move up won't happen until next year, and even that prediction is based on the 4 year cycles - with the caveat that we don't know how BTC will do in hiking or hawkish environments. I don't think it matters because the Fed will cause a ton of carnage for the next 3-6 months and it'll be so bad they'll reverse like crazy when the cries of the common man are on megaphone volume. That is why I believe that with the 2024 halving in sight, 2023 will be the year for new ATHs, probably later in the year, though.
 

BURNΞR

Ostrich
Agnostic
Is this your view? Basically the Fed is just talking tough causing the asset price demolitions we are seeing, and basically that's it?
I've heard both sides of the argument (i.e. Powell will continue to raise rates unabashed until he controls inflation because he's re-confirmed and fuck the Dems anyway since Repubs will take power by midterms) - I honestly really can't tell if he's ready to do the Vockler thing (if that's even possible with such US debt)

That Vockler stuff is not even on the table anymore - The math no longer checks out, I think everyone agrees on this. All the Fed can do is bluff they can continue raising interest rates but eventually they have to stop and the result is inflation because while they are tapering at 3-5% they have been doing QE (brrrrrrr) since 2008. Since it is not feasible to raise rates beyond what I mentioned without complete financial ruin, inflation will prevail. Since the average person cannot get a salary that pays with the pace of inflation they are forced to gamble in the stock&crypto market (bank deposit interest does not keep pace with fed hikes or inflation). The only conceivable way out of inflation is either the US raises taxes in a way never seen before and/or war.
 

chance vought

Woodpecker
Protestant
I think there will be a good buying opportunity when something breaks…could be credit market, a G7 currency collapse…something big enough to cause global contagion. Big like 2008, 2020. The bubble hasn’t popped yet. 2008 was what, 800 billion QE, 2020 was 5 Trillion + helicopter money, 2024? Sooner? will be 30 Trillion + helicopter money + FedCoin UBI/social credit score…which sounds unthinkable today, but when shelves are empty and things get bad, there will be public support, as well as government incentive.
 

2Infinity

Woodpecker
I think there will be a good buying opportunity when something breaks…could be credit market, a G7 currency collapse…something big enough to cause global contagion. Big like 2008, 2020. The bubble hasn’t popped yet. 2008 was what, 800 billion QE, 2020 was 5 Trillion + helicopter money, 2024? Sooner? will be 30 Trillion + helicopter money + FedCoin UBI/social credit score…which sounds unthinkable today, but when shelves are empty and things get bad, there will be public support, as well as government incentive.

Ed Dowd has a similar opinion, keep enough cash on hand for good buying opps in the coming 18-24 months.

 

Blade Runner

Hummingbird
Orthodox
Do you have a summary of how they've been hit, compared to spot?
Yes, from around the all time highs in November, the miners are down between 85-90% while bitcoin-usd is down 70%. If you think that we see new ATH in 2023 as I do, I think you're going to outdo (based on past performance) spot by quite a bit, but you do have to consider that those paper/dollar gains would be subject to capital gains. Still, I can see the cheap miners right now easily doing 20x, if we go back to new ATH levels. If you wait a little bit and the recession takes all of them lower, even more. By the way, I would be a seller at new ATH and pay the tax on the capital gains. I don't want people to get too invested in BTC, but the fact is that its asymmetry blows other commodities out of the water. It is tempting because even if you HODL and self custodian (something you should be doing), you still realize that dollar liquidity in the current system can be/is important, at least for the near short to mid term.
 

chance vought

Woodpecker
Protestant
Yes, from around the all time highs in November, the miners are down between 85-90% while bitcoin-usd is down 70%. If you think that we see new ATH in 2023 as I do, I think you're going to outdo (based on past performance) spot by quite a bit, but you do have to consider that those paper/dollar gains would be subject to capital gains. Still, I can see the cheap miners right now easily doing 20x, if we go back to new ATH levels. If you wait a little bit and the recession takes all of them lower, even more. By the way, I would be a seller at new ATH and pay the tax on the capital gains. I don't want people to get too invested in BTC, but the fact is that its asymmetry blows other commodities out of the water. It is tempting because even if you HODL and self custodian (something you should be doing), you still realize that dollar liquidity in the current system can be/is important, at least for the near short to mid term.
One point I would disagree with…trading BTC is a losing bet. Selling BTC at any time is letting your home insurance lapse for 6 months when you live in the path of a hurricane, one that we know is out there. What looks like a blowoff top to $300k in BTC could be the collapse of the financial system, which is the moment you don’t want to sell. Many in Weimar Germany sold their houses, thinking they were now rich, only to be destitute and homeless months later, unable to buy a loaf of bread with the worthless paper they sold their only real asset for.
I know you are not advocating trading one’s entire stack, and a 10% trading stack won’t hurt anyone, I just wanted to make the case for extreme HODLing.
 
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