The Bitcoin (BTC) thread

Jamal D

Woodpecker
Agnostic
I agree there was a lot of market hype, but I do recall watching this one video where this trader dude (Gareth Soloway) actually did predict the drop to $20K on March 28th when it was around $47K. I haven't really followed him in depth or watched all his content so I can't really vouch if he's consistently accurate or just got a one-off correct among the many thousands of price predictions. He also obviously never predicted the LUNA / stablecoin shitshow that sparked this either.


He now calls for 12k, something done in post #10,728 in this thread also. If you are gonna pick bottoms and survive, I`d say this:

*Decided a max position you want to take on a trend down by stacking.
*Hold something to add when the market starts trending again, and don`t add more until you see behavioral changes.

Find a long term trend filter and read up on signs of a market bottoming. Some people, and especially investors tend to say "it is impossible to time the markets" Wrong. If you don`t time the market, and manage your risk you will over a long enough timeline go broke. Especially in these times with such a weak macro environment.

Nothing is too big to fail. If you don`t believe me go have a look at Deutche bank (DBK)
 
He now calls for 12k, something done in post #10,728 in this thread also. If you are gonna pick bottoms and survive, I`d say this:

*Decided a max position you want to take on a trend down by stacking.
*Hold something to add when the market starts trending again, and don`t add more until you see behavioral changes.

Find a long term trend filter and read up on signs of a market bottoming. Some people, and especially investors tend to say "it is impossible to time the markets" Wrong. If you don`t time the market, and manage your risk you will over a long enough timeline go broke. Especially in these times with such a weak macro environment.

Nothing is too big to fail. If you don`t believe me go have a look at Deutche bank (DBK)

Ahem... If I may inject a little hopium here...

On his more recent Stansburry Research interview he qualifies that 12k call much more than his previous 20k call, and says it's entirely possible it won't bounce that low. He says it's more of his very low end prediction.

Anyway, I think all the more nuanced Bitcoiners (Lynn Alden, Preston Psych) are recommending to cautiously start dollar cost averaging in right now, which I'm doing. If it drops below 10k (daaaaaaang) then I'll make one last big Leroy Jenkins buy and then call it quits and not do anything until it pops back over 40k.

When I got into this thing I did so with a 15 year minimum time horizon. So honestly I'm just along for the ride either way.
 

BURNΞR

Ostrich
Agnostic
TA & leveraged trading will lead you to make life altering stupid decisions that cost you many millions. Don't take it seriously and just go back to the fundamentals like scarcity and adoption/utility. Avoid leverage, you are already winning just by being in the crypto space, no need to spice it up and risk losing everything. There will always be a few traders that nail the top or make accurate predictions. Last cycle it was Peter Brandt but most of his calls were bad after that.
 

Blade Runner

Hummingbird
Orthodox
One point I would disagree with…trading BTC is a losing bet. Selling BTC at any time is letting your home insurance lapse for 6 months when you live in the path of a hurricane, one that we know is out there. What looks like a blowoff top to $300k in BTC could be the collapse of the financial system, which is the moment you don’t want to sell. Many in Weimar Germany sold their houses, thinking they were now rich, only to be destitute and homeless months later, unable to buy a loaf of bread with the worthless paper they sold their only real asset for.
I know you are not advocating trading one’s entire stack, and a 10% trading stack won’t hurt anyone, I just wanted to make the case for extreme HODLing.
In general I'm in agreement with this; my post was more for those who already are HODLing to an acceptable level and have money dedicated to markets/commodities in paper assets that they might want to consider for a big move. We can lose 50% from here, but I think approaching the halving, we will re-test ATHs. Selling paper gains with miners or such is what I'm getting at. The asymmetry there is big, too, if you start this low and we get back to 80k+
 

Cynllo

Kingfisher
Other Christian
Mt. Gox is gearing up to release it's 142,000 BTC:


Given the price is already quite low, I would imagine that there won't be a huge amount of dumping.
 

lonewolf1968

Kingfisher
Other Christian
Hey guys, I've been trying to stack Non-kyc Sats in my home country and it's been quite a nightmare. The ATMs here require KYC and even on P2P exchanges some of the users are demanding the buyer to send a copy of an ID, which doesn't make sense and it's a big NO, come on I barely trust binance with my identity I won't send a pic of my ID to a Stranger. However, I found this COOL telegram bot on https://twitter.com/lnp2pBot, and it seems to use Lighting network invoices as an escrow which is really cool, so you might like to give it a try. I finally had my first successful Non-KYC transaction
 
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kurtybro

Woodpecker
Hey guys, I've been trying to stack Non-kyc Sats in my home country and it's been quite a nightmare. The ATMs here require KYC and even on P2P exchanges some of the users are demanding the buyer to send a copy of an ID, which doesn't make sense, come on. But today I found this bot https://twitter.com/lnp2pBot, and it seems to use Lighting network invoices as an escrow which is really cool, so you might like to give it a try.

Have you checked https://kycnot.me/ ?

Bisq should still be good AFAIK.
 

cosine

Woodpecker
One point I would disagree with…trading BTC is a losing bet. Selling BTC at any time is letting your home insurance lapse for 6 months when you live in the path of a hurricane, one that we know is out there. What looks like a blowoff top to $300k in BTC could be the collapse of the financial system, which is the moment you don’t want to sell. Many in Weimar Germany sold their houses, thinking they were now rich, only to be destitute and homeless months later, unable to buy a loaf of bread with the worthless paper they sold their only real asset for.
I know you are not advocating trading one’s entire stack, and a 10% trading stack won’t hurt anyone, I just wanted to make the case for extreme HODLing.
This brings me back to:
- hold some cash(most important)
- hold some bitcoin
- invest mostly in real estate

I know several German families that managed to keep assets through the 20th century. They're doing fine now. Call me crazy but if I had many millions of capital to allocate, the US is one of the places where I'd allocate a significant amount.

Our grandfathers probably all despised the cultural revolutions of the 1960's and 70's and figured the country was about to collapse as it moved off the gold standard and etc. Yet here we are, the S&P still generally goes up. It just might require a time horizon that includes rising from the ashes of the wokepocalypse.
 
Yes I like Preston, very pragmatic and intelligent, I think he was an Army helicopter pilot.
Really good interview here. Both of these men are mature, reasonable, and humble, which is a bit refreshing since some of the Bitcoin maximalists can honestly be insufferable sometimes.


I'll briefly summarize the points made in that video:

- Expect a lot more pain in the stock market, still around 30% over-valued, will probably go down that much when rates keep going up
- When that happens, the pain from the crash will be too much to bear, and they will have to pivot from quantitative easing
- That is when we will see BTC go crazy (up, to around 100K min).
- He thinks the bottom is already in, but isn't totally sure.
- In his experience, the more arrogant someone is, the less likely they are to be open to discussing and learning about bitcoin

Lots more in there, but those were some wavetops.
 
This brings me back to:
- hold some cash(most important)
- hold some bitcoin
- invest mostly in real estate

I know several German families that managed to keep assets through the 20th century. They're doing fine now. Call me crazy but if I had many millions of capital to allocate, the US is one of the places where I'd allocate a significant amount.

Our grandfathers probably all despised the cultural revolutions of the 1960's and 70's and figured the country was about to collapse as it moved off the gold standard and etc. Yet here we are, the S&P still generally goes up. It just might require a time horizon that includes rising from the ashes of the wokepocalypse.

With all due respect I think you are making the wrong comparison here. What will be coming, and is well on its way, will not be like the 60s and 70s. It will be like the Great Depression, with all of the cultural dysfunction of the 60s and 70s.

We also got out of that one, but if you had money invested in the Stock Market, you didn't see your money come back for decades. And that required a World War.

We are in no position to take the corrective action necessary for either the 70s stagflation or the Great Depression. Demographically, even just by age alone, we are not the same country. Not even close. Factor in debt, institutional corruption, cultural devolution, racial fragmentation etc... it won't be fixed so easy.

So to get back to your thesis on real estate and stocks... I personally would not be so sure. I know a lot of places where the property taxes are getting to nose bleed levels, and I can assure you they will never come down. If you want to buy property of any significant value, you will end up paying the value of that property many times over in taxes, utility bills, etc... in a decade or two.

I could be wrong on this, in fact I hope I'm wrong. However if there is any credibility to my observations, then bitcoin becomes an even better proposition.

What if America becomes like Argentina? Or Venezuela? Or Russia post Soviet Union Collapse? I think the future will be some combination of those three, lasting for about a decade.
 

cosine

Woodpecker
I could be wrong on this, in fact I hope I'm wrong. However if there is any credibility to my observations, then bitcoin becomes an even better proposition.

What if America becomes like Argentina? Or Venezuela? Or Russia post Soviet Union Collapse? I think the future will be some combination of those three, lasting for about a decade.
I do see hard times ahead, but I just also know that we keep coming out of these insane situations with a few band-aids over bruises, and a bigger debt. Perhaps the day of reckoning will come, but I just see it being kicked down the road again.

My guess is the US goes the way of Britain; less global dominance over time. But nice, wealthy places in the US will still be nice and wealthy.
 

COtrailrider

Robin
Gnostic or New Age
So to get back to your thesis on real estate and stocks... I personally would not be so sure. I know a lot of places where the property taxes are getting to nose bleed levels, and I can assure you they will never come down. If you want to buy property of any significant value, you will end up paying the value of that property many times over in taxes, utility bills, etc... in a decade or two.
I've been considering how property taxes could be a major factor in the 'you will own nothing and be happy' plan. Let me know what you think of this.

I agree that property taxes aren't coming down anytime soon - in fact it'll be the opposite as governments at all levels struggle to maintain cash flow.

Consider how these inflated home prices and increasing interest rates will impact homebuyers in the future. Also consider when boomers retire and pass down said houses to their kids, mixed with property taxes and lower purchasing power across the board in a (likely) stagflationary environment, many will be forced to sell. And guess who will be waiting to buy? Blackrock and their ilk.

I also agree with @cosine that the wealthy will still own their property/etc. (surrounded by armed security and high walls of course). However it's just furthering the decades-long agenda of wiping out the middle class in particular, and further decimating the lower class.

Any thoughts on this?

It causes me some concern for sure and I think it's what they're trying to do, among other things. Yet another reason I'm looking at foreign real estate as well.
 

cosine

Woodpecker
I also agree with @cosine that the wealthy will still own their property/etc. (surrounded by armed security and high walls of course). However it's just furthering the decades-long agenda of wiping out the middle class in particular, and further decimating the lower class.
It's terrifying. All I can do is answer this question: which side of that class divide would I rather be on, and what am I going to do about it?
 

COtrailrider

Robin
Gnostic or New Age
It's terrifying. All I can do is answer this question: which side of that class divide would I rather be on, and what am I going to do about it?
Hate to say it but it might be too late to make much change in that regard. Exceptions being a windfall of money from inheritance, winning the lotto, or a shitcoin you're long on 'going to the moon'. Or BTC goes to $250k+ per in 5-10 years like we're all hoping for and you're a long-time HODLer with diamond hands.

Have you expanded your horizons to foreign lands? I don't know where you're based at. If you have location independent income, or assets (particularly dollar-denominated), it'll diversify your opportunities in a variety of ways - this is what I'm doing. Condos in Eastern European capital cities can still be had for close to $100,000 if that's your interest.
 

cosine

Woodpecker
Hate to say it but it might be too late to make much change in that regard. Exceptions being a windfall of money from inheritance, winning the lotto, or a shitcoin you're long on 'going to the moon'. Or BTC goes to $250k+ per in 5-10 years like we're all hoping for and you're a long-time HODLer with diamond hands.

Have you expanded your horizons to foreign lands? I don't know where you're based at. If you have location independent income, or assets (particularly dollar-denominated), it'll diversify your opportunities in a variety of ways - this is what I'm doing. Condos in Eastern European capital cities can still be had for close to $100,000 if that's your interest.
Part of the middle class being "hollowed out" is that it seems to be getting distilled globally instead of just concentrated in N. America and Northern Europe.

In the postwar era the US had most of the world's wealthy people; now globalism has spread it out. There are probably more middle class/upper middle class people globally now, just so many are in Asia now.

The US is still a land of opportunity, you just have to wade through a sea of crazy while you build wealth here. And repeatedly adapt to changing conditions, for example certain careers dying off surprisingly quickly. Now you are more likely to need non-traditional career paths and multiple income streams.
 
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