The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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You guys are smarter than me. Isn't this move to implode banks, just a way to prepare the ground to issue their CDBCs and launch executive order 6102 on Bitcoin?
I think he's referring to to the 2019 bubbl up to $15K, which pulled back. I'd be expecting something similar if the uncertainty didn't make any forecasting practically useless.
Possible. I posted a good article somewhere a while back. The author had predicted in 2017 that globalists would arrange for the death of the dollar via Saudi Arabia and other countries. Said that certain entities has been directing Saudi Arabia to ditch the dollar. With the goal of creating something like a Globalist CBDB, for which national currencies would be fascias. He said there would be a dialectic against the globalist and opposed powers, seeking a synthesis.
You probably can't tell what is true here. Not enough information. Very little can be discerned by about parties' motives.
All we can know is to prepare for the changes.
Even some normies getting primed -
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Fareed ... it might be death by a thousand ... banks 
Robert High Hawk
Pelican
I'm probably not smarter than you, but my take is that banks were always set up to fail, or at a minimum set up to NEED the government to "help" them.
Good news is that CBDCs are going to utterly suck and fail like everything else the government does, and this will accelerate people looking alternative sources and mediums of exchange. Like bitcoin!
Wasn't there an FTX collapse thread? Where'd that go?
Sam Bankman-Fried’s Legal Defense Is Being Funded With Alameda Money He Gifted His Father
Joke's on me. The bitcoin I had in celsius was lent to FTX. So I'm funding SBF's legal defense.
Not your keys, not your coins. I didn't listen, I learned it the hard way.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s Legal Defense Is Being Funded With Alameda Money He Gifted His Father
Joke's on me. The bitcoin I had in celsius was lent to FTX. So I'm funding SBF's legal defense.
Not your keys, not your coins. I didn't listen, I learned it the hard way.
ISR92
Robin
What a beautiful run since the start of the year. Feels good to have accumulated for the majority of 2022. I assume this rally will keep going until an insurmountable price level is hit, which won't be able to be breached until after the halving.
I do wonder about what the market cap of BTC should be considering it is not used much for its actual purpose. It is being treated more as a store of value than E-cash. Assuming the lack of widespread usage in transactions, I don't think it will surpass gold's market cap as the lack of physicality is a big drawback for it. But even if we get to 10% of gold's market cap (conservative IMO) that still implies a decent amount of upside.
I do wonder about what the market cap of BTC should be considering it is not used much for its actual purpose. It is being treated more as a store of value than E-cash. Assuming the lack of widespread usage in transactions, I don't think it will surpass gold's market cap as the lack of physicality is a big drawback for it. But even if we get to 10% of gold's market cap (conservative IMO) that still implies a decent amount of upside.
It will eclipse that once the network effect continues and skyrockets. We're at the price level in question. It'll be interesting to see what Mr. Soloway says about the resistance at 30 or 31 (that's what McCullough says).
#freeroman - U.S. v. Roman Sterlingov
Read about U.S. v. Roman Sterlingov. This prosecution puts every person who uses cryptocurrencies at risk. It is a case you should follow if you believe that the Government should only use scientifically sound, peer-reviewed, accepted, verifiable forensics techniques.
www.torekeland.com
CD100: The Disturbing Chainalysis Led Prosecution of Roman Sterlingov with Mike Hassard and Tor Ekeland
support dispatch: https://citadeldispatch.com/donate EPISODE: 100 BLOCK: 785120 PRICE: 3342 sats per dollar TOPICS: Roman Sterlingov has been…
www.podpage.com
Roman Sterlingov
TLDR;
bitcoin OG decides he might need to get a job before his Bitcoin wealth runs out, comes to USA to get his pilots license, and is arrested as soon as he lands
corrupt DOJ and chainalysis build shoddy case and claim he is the mastermind operator of Bitcoin Fog
held without bail for 2 years and counting
Russian citizen = they have more (geo)political energy to make things up on this guy, not that it's legit at all.#freeroman - U.S. v. Roman Sterlingov
Read about U.S. v. Roman Sterlingov. This prosecution puts every person who uses cryptocurrencies at risk. It is a case you should follow if you believe that the Government should only use scientifically sound, peer-reviewed, accepted, verifiable forensics techniques.
CD100: The Disturbing Chainalysis Led Prosecution of Roman Sterlingov with Mike Hassard and Tor Ekeland
support dispatch: https://citadeldispatch.com/donate EPISODE: 100 BLOCK: 785120 PRICE: 3342 sats per dollar TOPICS: Roman Sterlingov has been…
Roman Sterlingov
TLDR;
bitcoin OG decides he might need to get a job before his Bitcoin wealth runs out, comes to USA to get his pilots license, and is arrested as soon as he lands
corrupt DOJ and chainalysis build shoddy case and claim he is the mastermind operator of Bitcoin Fog
held without bail for 2 years and counting
Good news from Argentina, for those interested in trading in Bitcoins :
www.criptonoticias.com
CNV de Argentina aprobó índice de futuros de bitcoin
La Comisión Nacional de Valores aprobó el Índice Bitcoin, producto financiero de la empresa Matba Rofex
www.criptonoticias.com
Robert High Hawk
Pelican
Countries like Argentina will get behind bitcoin because they have to, not becausethe government wants toGood news from Argentina, for those interested in trading in Bitcoins :
CNV de Argentina aprobó índice de futuros de bitcoin
La Comisión Nacional de Valores aprobó el Índice Bitcoin, producto financiero de la empresa Matba Rofex
Correct me if im wrong but 10% of gold market cap is pretty much 50k bitcoin.
Not an easy comparison because gold is not 100% monetary…I think that 50k Bitcoin is more than 10% gold…
Only about 40,000 tons out of a total of 200,000 tons of above ground gold is in bars or coins…roughly 20%. The rest is jewelry and industrial. $2 Trillion in gold is being used as money currently. One could argue that $100k Bitcoin would be at parity with gold as far as monetary premium.
I think there is plenty of upside for BTC, gold is tiny compared to bonds, real estate, equities, and everything else that has become a money substitute. Hundreds of trillions. Add in derivatives and now its quadrillions. Negative yielding bonds are worth less than nothing, real estate is a durable good, not an investment, and equities don’t pay enough for the risk of owning them. BTC devours all of these money substitutes. First $10T, then $100T, $500T…gold will be dethroned in 2025, bonds and everything else by 2030. $2M BTC in 2030.
I realize that this long ago evolved into a pure Bitcoin hype thread, but this is hilariously delusional. Not sure if you're just trying to outdo your previous hype or actually believe this. Of course, I'm old enough to remember when the "consensus" was that Bitcoin would hit 100k by the end of 2021.
Setting aside the absurdity of this price target itself, please consider how ridiculous the statement is that Bitcoin would "devour all these money substitutes" (namely: derivatives, bonds, real estate, equities and gold) when Bitcoin performs NONE OF THE ECONOMIC FUNCTIONS of any of these products (which exist primarily for reasons besides serving as money substitutes - the only reason they serve as money substitutes to begin with is because they provide actual economic value in one regard or another, which Bitcoin does not).
Can you physically live in a Bitcoin? Can you farm on a Bitcoin? Can you build a cash-generating property on one? (REAL ESTATE)
Can you hedge the price of real-world goods, interest rates and currencies with Bitcoin? (DERIVATIVES)
Can you issue new debt to finance long term investment with Bitcoin? Can you generate stable cash flow by buying one? (BONDS)
Can you take an ownership stake and share in the profits of successful corporate enterprises with Bitcoin? (EQUITIES)
Can you hold Bitcoin in your hand? Turn it into jewelry? Has Bitcoin been used as money for thousands of years? (GOLD)
Can you do literally anything at all with Bitcoin except HODL and wait for it to go up?
The answer to all of those questions is "no", which is why Bitcoin simply cannot and will not "devour these money substitutes" and take over the economy. At the end of the day, the price of Bitcoin is limited because it simply HAS NO VALUE. It performs no economic function whatsoever. It just sits there on the network, doing nothing, with no relation to any sort of real economic activity. It is purely a vehicle for speculation.
I am not claiming these have no value (except for bonds that have negative real yields).
My claim is that they are valued higher than they should be because they have taken on a monetary premium that would not exist, but for a flawed fiat money that does not maintain its value over time.
Houses should have no more monetary premium than tractors. Dividend paying equities that pay less than inflation, and result in taxes on top of that, are valued higher than they should be, because they are currently used as a substitute for money, a quasi savings account.
If Bitcoin has no value, why does it have a price? Why are individuals continually adopting it, and why is it protected by the most powerful computer network in the world?
Money is one of the most important technologies, maybe second to language itself, possibly above writing, to human civilization. The economic function of money is the most important component of human cooperation (second perhaps to language.)
I did not mean that real estate, equities, and gold disappear, just that their monetary premium trends towards zero in a Bitcoin world. I don’t know what fraction of their current values are monetary premium; is it now 20% or 80%?
Bitcoin replaces a flawed money with nearly perfect money. Yes, it can’t be used as jewelry, you can’t shoot it or eat it. Its only use is as money…a 100% monetary premium.
My claim is that they are valued higher than they should be because they have taken on a monetary premium that would not exist, but for a flawed fiat money that does not maintain its value over time.
Houses should have no more monetary premium than tractors. Dividend paying equities that pay less than inflation, and result in taxes on top of that, are valued higher than they should be, because they are currently used as a substitute for money, a quasi savings account.
If Bitcoin has no value, why does it have a price? Why are individuals continually adopting it, and why is it protected by the most powerful computer network in the world?
Money is one of the most important technologies, maybe second to language itself, possibly above writing, to human civilization. The economic function of money is the most important component of human cooperation (second perhaps to language.)
I did not mean that real estate, equities, and gold disappear, just that their monetary premium trends towards zero in a Bitcoin world. I don’t know what fraction of their current values are monetary premium; is it now 20% or 80%?
Bitcoin replaces a flawed money with nearly perfect money. Yes, it can’t be used as jewelry, you can’t shoot it or eat it. Its only use is as money…a 100% monetary premium.
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You're absolutely correct that there are price distortions in our current economy, most of which can be explained by forty years of declining interest rates and particularly by loose monetary policy of the past decade. But just because these assets may be overvalued does not mean that Bitcoin is correspondingly undervalued. Indeed, if we do see a massive deflation across all assets classes at some point, I expect Bitcoin to be hit along with everything else - and probably worse, since as I mentioned, it serves no economic purpose besides speculation to begin with.
This question gets at the fundamental distinction between price and value. If you're dying of thirst in the desert, a gallon of water suddenly becomes the most valuable thing in the world to you. In that situation, if I offered you $1 million in cash (or BTC or gold, etc...) or the gallon of water, you would take the water every time. Even if I charged you $10,000 for it. Because you aren't concerned about price in that moment, you're concerned about the actual value that the water brings: the ability to quench your thirst and allow you continue living.
Ultimately, the reason that any good or service has a market "price" at all is because it necessarily carries some attachment (whether loose or solid) to some underlying function of economic value (i.e. a house is valuable because you can live it). As economies grow mature and more complex, we often see the tie between price and value grow increasingly loose and distant, and eventually you get the emergence of entirely speculative vehicles like Bitcoin. But at the end of the day, regardless of this temporary disconnect between price and value, the two will necessarily come back together at some point, usually at the depth of economic crisis. Because that which ultimately has no value will ultimately have no (or very little) price.
Another way to think about it: when we talk about BTC "going to 100k" or "going to 2m", what are we really saying? We're saying that Bitcoin can be exchanged for 100k or 2 million USD. Now imagine a world where suddenly you can no longer convert your BTC to USD, or to any other currency, for that matter.
What is the price of your Bitcoin at that point? There is literally no way for you to know, unless some form of barter exchange emerges. Is a Bitcoin priced as 1 cow? Is a Bitcoin priced at 10 chickens? Is a Bitcoin priced at a gallon of honey? Who knows? What becomes very obvious in such a scenario, however, is that the value of Bitcoin is nil. Your perception of its value is currently tied entirely to its price. In the absence of price action (which is driven entirely by the ability to convert BTC to other currencies) this ability to determine its "value" disappears. And since there is no natural economic demand for a Bitcoin (since it serves no real function or purpose, unlike a cow or a piece of land or a cash flow generating asset) there is way to naturally establish it. In this regard, we see that Bitcoin is basically just a brand name speculation vehicle (which even many BTC maximalists seem to understand intuitively, i.e. the anti-crypto/shitcoin mantra that "there is Bitcoin, and there is everything else").
This question gets at the fundamental distinction between price and value. If you're dying of thirst in the desert, a gallon of water suddenly becomes the most valuable thing in the world to you. In that situation, if I offered you $1 million in cash (or BTC or gold, etc...) or the gallon of water, you would take the water every time. Even if I charged you $10,000 for it. Because you aren't concerned about price in that moment, you're concerned about the actual value that the water brings: the ability to quench your thirst and allow you continue living.
Ultimately, the reason that any good or service has a market "price" at all is because it necessarily carries some attachment (whether loose or solid) to some underlying function of economic value (i.e. a house is valuable because you can live it). As economies grow mature and more complex, we often see the tie between price and value grow increasingly loose and distant, and eventually you get the emergence of entirely speculative vehicles like Bitcoin. But at the end of the day, regardless of this temporary disconnect between price and value, the two will necessarily come back together at some point, usually at the depth of economic crisis. Because that which ultimately has no value will ultimately have no (or very little) price.
Another way to think about it: when we talk about BTC "going to 100k" or "going to 2m", what are we really saying? We're saying that Bitcoin can be exchanged for 100k or 2 million USD. Now imagine a world where suddenly you can no longer convert your BTC to USD, or to any other currency, for that matter.
What is the price of your Bitcoin at that point? There is literally no way for you to know, unless some form of barter exchange emerges. Is a Bitcoin priced as 1 cow? Is a Bitcoin priced at 10 chickens? Is a Bitcoin priced at a gallon of honey? Who knows? What becomes very obvious in such a scenario, however, is that the value of Bitcoin is nil. Your perception of its value is currently tied entirely to its price. In the absence of price action (which is driven entirely by the ability to convert BTC to other currencies) this ability to determine its "value" disappears. And since there is no natural economic demand for a Bitcoin (since it serves no real function or purpose, unlike a cow or a piece of land or a cash flow generating asset) there is way to naturally establish it. In this regard, we see that Bitcoin is basically just a brand name speculation vehicle (which even many BTC maximalists seem to understand intuitively, i.e. the anti-crypto/shitcoin mantra that "there is Bitcoin, and there is everything else").
agreed, except for the no economic purpose part…
Does USD serve an economic purpose? Yes it has uses for home heating and in case you run out of toilet paper, but it serves as money, 50% of every economic transaction.
Bitcoin is better than dollars by every measure, except in network size.
The value increases as the network grows. Just like having a telephone is useless if there is only 1 on the network, but extremely valuable if there are 1 billion in the network.
That is indeed hard to imagine, but it must be something like living in Argentina. People started thinking less and less about the price of things in Argentine pesos, and more about them priced in USD. Eventually, the only price that really matters is the USD price. Something similar will happen with Bitcoin, at some point the USD price of things will become less relevant and eventually fade away into obscurity, like the Zimbabwe dollar.
exactly right
What is the value of a dollar? Does it have a price? Eventually, Bitcoin wont have a price, either.
It has a price because people value it. It is valued for its unique properties, the same reason a near universal consensus was reached on gold as having value: it has properties that make it a monetary good.
-durability
-portability
-high cost of human time to produce
-divisibility
-fungibility
-verifiable/assay
-not very useful for other things (monetary premium)
The function is as money, a crucial technology without which there cannot be civilization. If it were just an upgrade, an incremental improvement, it would not succeed.
It is infinitely better than fiat currency. The supply of fiat is infinite. The supply of every other monetary good, commodity, thing in the economy, is infinite. The supply of Bitcoin is fixed. It is trustless, permission less, censorship resistant and theft proof. It it is not just money, this is something we don’t have a word for yet…it is something so far beyond where we came from, we don’t have the language to describe it.
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