The Coming War with Iran

Leonard D Neubache

Owl
Gold Member
Brain stew syndrome from concussive blasts is a horrible affliction that manifests in unpredictable ways for the rest of a person's life.

I hope they recover as best as possible.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Michael D'Andrea is an officer of the Central Intelligence Agency, that in 2017 was appointed to head the Agency's Iran Mission Center.[1] He was a major figure in the search for Osama bin Laden, as well as the American drone strike targeted killing campaign.[1]

According to Russian intelligence sources, Michael D'Andrea who is reportedly behind the assassination of Qassem Soleimani was killed after a U.S. air force plane was shot down by Taliban on 27 January 2020.[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_D'Andrea
 

Easy_C

Crow
Leonard D Neubache said:
Unless there was something incredibly important about that plane then it would be a pretty paltry payback for releasing a bio-weapon that's crippling China entirely. If they are engaging in tit for tat then there's still a lot of vengeance waiting in the wings.
That's not correct. China has supported the Taliban with materials and advisors. Countries do this kind of thing not necessarily as "retaliation" but because working with proxies allows them a low risk way of probing their opponent's military tactics/responses and testing new equipment in a live battlefield environment.

It probably wasn't retaliation but was more likely "Let's see if this new MANPAD system can successfully down one of the American's new C3 aircraft and bypass their EW defenses".
 

Hansel

Sparrow
Easy_C said:
That's not correct. China has supported the Taliban with materials and advisors. Countries do this kind of thing not necessarily as "retaliation" but because working with proxies allows them a low risk way of probing their opponent's military tactics/responses and testing new equipment in a live battlefield environment.

It probably wasn't retaliation but was more likely "Let's see if this new MANPAD system can successfully down one of the American's new C3 aircraft and bypass their EW defenses".
I'd say it's too much a coincidence they tested weapons systems on an BACN conducting an irregular extraction mission. It is pretty common knowledge China has commandos in Afghanistan testing out weapons, but they had to know the E-11A was on a special mission carrying important cargo, even if they didn't know downing the plane would deal a huge blow to US operations in ME so they shouldn't bank on a new weapons systems.

I'm still inclined towards the planned retaliation alternative.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
A smaller possibility, but one that is not outside of the realm, is that this could have also been an inside job, if Michael D'Andrea had some powerful enemies within the deep state.
 

Easy_C

Crow
That's also possible.

Again not necessarily retaliation. Sometimes the point of this is just to make an opponent's life more difficult and help ensure they stay bogged down too same as we did to the Russians. Whoever did it knew it was a C3 plane although they may or may not have known names/identities of those on board.

That said I'm not sure why the hell you'd put a station chief on a C3 jet. It's not like you need to be physically on the plane to co-ordinate an operation from above and in fact it isn't really an advantage to do so.
 

It_is_my_time

Hummingbird
Yesterday it as admitted that 50 soldiers were evacuated after Iran's missile strike for brain trauma injuries. How severe this is, no one knows, but it must be some what serious if they were evacuated. Add to it the downing of the military Jet on the 27th of January. No response from the USA at all. Maybe part of the reason is we know our newest technology is just junk created to boost the stock value of boeing, lockhead martin, or whoever else gets their hands into the endless govt. cookie jar.

 

Leonard D Neubache

Owl
Gold Member
Now I may be just be a simple country Hyper-Chicken but on what planet are F-35s ever going to be using a mounted gun?

My prediction.

"Ground troops, this is Foxtrot three five. We're now in the sector and ready to provide close air support."
--"You got here quick. Okay, we need a run from..."
"Ground troops, be advised we are bingo on fuel and returning to base. Good luck."
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
The F-35 is not a very good dogfighter, unlike the F-22 (which is even more expensive), so if it has to rely on its guns to shoot down an adversary, it is going to be in big trouble...
 

Monty_Brogan

Woodpecker
Gold Member
Hansel said:
Leonard D Neubache said:
Unless there was something incredibly important about that plane then it would be a pretty paltry payback for releasing a bio-weapon that's crippling China entirely. If they are engaging in tit for tat then there's still a lot of vengeance waiting in the wings.
We’ll never know what’s on the plane. But Iran is claiming that Michael D’Andrea, the chief engineer behind the drone strike on Soleimani and head of the CIA’s Iran Mission Center was on the plane and killed. Assuming that’s true, he would probably have quite a bit of information carried around him. Meanwhile, Afghanistan says there were 4 dead and 2 MIA. If it happens that D’Andrea is among those alive, things would be even dicier...
How was the bird in that good of shape? The pilots did a hell of a job bringing her down. RIP.

And off topic, but I’m currently reading, “Twilights Last Gleaming” by Greer. And it’s been a truly freighting read to say the least.

Interesting analysis, H
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
It_is_my_time said:
Yesterday it as admitted that 50 soldiers were evacuated after Iran's missile strike for brain trauma injuries. How severe this is, no one knows, but it must be some what serious if they were evacuated. Add to it the downing of the military Jet on the 27th of January. No response from the USA at all. Maybe part of the reason is we know our newest technology is just junk created to boost the stock value of boeing, lockhead martin, or whoever else gets their hands into the endless govt. cookie jar.

The toll is still climbing, and many of those are apparently debilitating long term brain injuries:

It appears these injury count updates out of the Pentagon are set to become a weekly thing. But it's of course worth recalling it all began with a "zero" injury and casualty count. By middle of this week the count jumped up to 50 troops injured in the Jan.8 Iran ballistic missile strike on Ayn al-Asad Airbase in Iraq. As we noted Wednesday the figures went from zero to 11 to 34 to 50... and who knows where from here.

But here's the new figure:

The Defense Department said Thursday that 14 more U.S. service members have been diagnosed with traumatic brain injury since the Iranian missile attack targeting U.S. forces at two Iraqi bases this month, bringing the total number to 64.

The Pentagon said that at this point most are considered “mild traumatic brain injuries” but that the numbers are expected to grow further.

"All of those people were screened, and we've got a certain number, and then the number's growing," said Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The Pentagon has repeatedly claimed the "concussion-like symptoms" didn't immediately present themselves.

In the days following the 'retaliatory strike' avenging the death of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Iranian state media claimed dozens of casualties were "immediately transferred out of the airbase by helicopters." Specifically Mehr News had claimed some 80 US troops were killed in the attack.

While the Pentagon has denied there were any troop deaths, it's clear that injuries sustained by the missile impact were far more substantial than initial Pentagon and US administration statements.

To review, Trump's first address to the nation following the major unprecedented attack on US forces in the wake of Soleimani's death indicated "no casualties" and that "all is well!". Two weeks later, the Pentagon stunned reporters by indicating 11 US troops actually suffered traumatic brain injury (TBI). In that time Trump also dismissed the reports as some troops having mere "headaches".

The official 'brain injury' toll has continued to shoot up from there — it seems now on a weekly basis.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/now-its-64-wounded-troop-count-iran-attack-still-growing


Good article on Traumatic Brain INjuries (TBIs):

Three years later, in 2007, Froede deployed to Iraq. While there, an EFP exploded under his vehicle -- directly under his seat. He walked away visibly unhurt -- not a scratch, she said. At least on the outside.

But Kemplin said he returned home changed.

“He was never really the same,” she told Connecting Vets. “It was almost like I lost him in Iraq and only his body came back.”

Froede’s personality warped. He became increasingly paranoid, accusatory, frequently irrationally angry, erratic, easily overwhelmed, had trouble sleeping and could even be cruel at times. And yes, he had severe headaches.

Those symptoms only worsened over time. Now working in military intelligence, a fear of losing security clearance or otherwise damaging his career trajectory convinced Froede not to seek help, despite Kemplin calling in every favor and connection she could think of to try to convince him to get treatment.

“He wouldn’t take the risk,” she said. “He was so scared. His career was his life, his identity.”

Kemplin was in a master’s program studying traumatic brain injuries when Froede sustained his TBI.

“I could see it unfolding in my spouse in front of my eyes,” she said.

Froede's injury, and his subsequent transformation, followed by a refusal to get help, led the couple to divorce.

Kemplin, a nurse scientist, professor and Ph.D. candidate, worked for the Army as a civilian clinician, continuing to study reintegration issues, Special Operations medicine and medic curricula, combat stress and injuries, including concussive symptoms and TBIs, and their links to suicide, for years. She saw other soldiers with similar injuries and experiences and knew that her (by then) ex-husband’s was worse.

Froede deployed again and again -- six more times after his initial injury.

In June 2019, Froede killed himself.


‘Headaches’

In the aftermath of the Iran missile strike on Al Asad Airbase, President Donald Trump characterized the reported traumatic brain injuries as “not very serious.”

“I heard they had headaches,” Trump said. “No, I don’t consider them very serious injuries, relative to other injuries that I’ve seen.”

The president’s comments set off a firestorm from scientific, medical, military and veteran communities. For Kemplin, it hit home and sparked rage not just for her family’s loss, but for future generations of soldiers like her ex-husband.

“What do you think hearing the president's comments did to my kids? What do you think that did to the families of the service members who were injured? If the president doesn’t believe in their injuries, then how will they feel? He should have been in Landstuhl pinning Purple Hearts on every single person affected.”

In the days and weeks that followed, the Pentagon continued to raise their count of troops with what top military leaders referred to as “mild” traumatic brain injuries, allowing that those TBIs could worsen and affect service members for life. They celebrated that no one was killed in the strikes, that no limbs were lost.

Froede’s TBI was also initially diagnosed as “mild,” Kemplin said. His brain and those of other troops similarly injured are being studied at the Center for Neuroscience and Regenerative Medicine at the Uniformed Services University in Bethesda, Md. Dr. Daniel Perl and his team at the center are studying scarring found on the brains of service members exposed to blasts who also died by suicide.

At least 50 U.S. service members have been diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries from the strike, Pentagon officials said.

The missile strike was in response to the U.S. killing of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani. Soleimani is credited with attacks on U.S. troops, including the use of explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, the same device that led to Froede’s TBI and is responsible for the death of hundreds of American service members. It’s a vicious cycle Kemplin said will continue so long as injuries like Froede’s aren’t understood or aren’t taken seriously.

“I highly doubt mothers would allow their sons and daughters to volunteer for a very long war if they knew the true incidence and virulence of TBIs sustained in these current wars on terror,” Kemplin said. “How they can affect their lives and, sometimes, end them.”

'Invisible wounds'

More than 383,000 service members have been diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries in training of combat since 2000, according to 2018 Defense Department data.

Symptoms for TBIs include: persistent headaches; confusion; dizziness; blurred vision; ringing ears; sleeplessness; behavior or mood changes; trouble with memory, concentration, attention or thinking; loss of consciousness; sensitivity to light; repeated nausea or vomiting; slurred speech; convulsions or seizures; enlarged pupils; numbness in arms or legs; loss of coordination; restlessness or agitation, according to the National Institutes of Health.

After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, traumatic brain injuries in the U.S. military -- particularly the Army -- soared with increasing devastation from roadside bombs, IEDs and, eventually, EFPs. In the early 90s, the Defense and Veterans Brain Injury Center was established.

But the U.S. military was already “15 years behind 15 years ago” in understanding concussive injuries from explosives, such as TBIs, Kemplin said. It’s an understudied issue, but “that’s the Army cliche, right? No data, no problem.”

The military can blame its own for failing to recover, she said. Troops are dismissed as “not being resilient enough, not strong enough.

“When you’re marginalized to that point, I can see how that could make any service member feel like there’s no hope,” she said.

Traumatic brain injuries, especially those sustained in combat, are severe mechanisms of injury, and Kemplin said it’s dangerous to downplay them, particularly when the biggest risk factor is reinjury.

“It’s the priority of every commander to get their soldiers back in the fight,” she said. “But (a TBI) is invisible; it's a blast-pressure wave coming at your brain, which is essentially a bowl of jello inside a skull. If you shake the jello hard enough, it’s going to sever connections that we can’t see. So you’ve got this enlisted medic trying to tell a bunch of officers, ‘I cannot send this guy back into the fight, he needs to rest.’ And it’s even harder to get that soldier to stay down and rest when no one can see the injury."

“It really is the invisible wound of war. These are not just headaches.”

https://connectingvets.radio.com/articles/military-tbis-scientist-studies-injury-that-killed-husband
 

pitbullowner

Kingfisher
911 said:
A smaller possibility, but one that is not outside of the realm, is that this could have also been an inside job, if Michael D'Andrea had some powerful enemies within the deep state.
I'm just wondering which master would be lesser punishment...

Chicoms or the hand rubbers..


:huh:
 

Leonard D Neubache

Owl
Gold Member
Although I take such reports with a grain of salt:

State television said the new short-range ballistic missile - dubbed the Raad-500 - has a range up to 500km (310 miles). That is some 200km (124 miles) more than the Fateh-110, a ballistic ground-to-ground missile first unveiled in 2002 that weighs twice as much as the new missile.
It doesn't outdistance their larger missiles but it's worth noting that it would fit neatly inside a shipping container so basically if these go into mass production then they will be very hard for an invading force to locate and deal with before they're fired.
 

It_is_my_time

Hummingbird
Leonard D Neubache said:
Although I take such reports with a grain of salt:

State television said the new short-range ballistic missile - dubbed the Raad-500 - has a range up to 500km (310 miles). That is some 200km (124 miles) more than the Fateh-110, a ballistic ground-to-ground missile first unveiled in 2002 that weighs twice as much as the new missile.
It doesn't outdistance their larger missiles but it's worth noting that it would fit neatly inside a shipping container so basically if these go into mass production then they will be very hard for an invading force to locate and deal with before they're fired.
Yep, basically they just declared they will quickly and cheaply deploy a very upgraded small arms missile that can be used against the USA and their allies at the drop of a hat and we can do little to prevent it.

This is a game changer. If they can deploy these to Hezbollah and then Hezbollah uses these against Israel or Saudi Arabia or even just ISIS, it will give them a huge advantage.
 

Leonard D Neubache

Owl
Gold Member
I don't think they'll let them outside of Iran and certainly they wont provide them to militias. Their "proactive" use would be legitimate grounds for an invasion. They can simply bristle their borders with them and litter them everywhere within 500 kilometers of the Suez Canal, which makes a very effective deterrent to fucking with Iran.

Smaller, faster missiles that pack a similar punch are a strategic nightmare for invading forces because you go from trying to find a bunch of big needles in a haystack to trying to find a bunch of much smaller needles in a haystack. Having said that, I'd be very curious about what kind of command structure is required to unleash them. Is a small team deployed with them and simply given orders over the radio or are they centrally controlled somehow?

The latter is much easier to shut down. The former has the potential for user error or abuse.
 

It_is_my_time

Hummingbird
Leonard D Neubache said:
I don't think they'll let them outside of Iran and certainly they wont provide them to militias. Their "proactive" use would be legitimate grounds for an invasion. They can simply bristle their borders with them and litter them everywhere within 500 kilometers of the Suez Canal, which makes a very effective deterrent to fucking with Iran.

Smaller, faster missiles that pack a similar punch are a strategic nightmare for invading forces because you go from trying to find a bunch of big needles in a haystack to trying to find a bunch of much smaller needles in a haystack. Having said that, I'd be very curious about what kind of command structure is required to unleash them. Is a small team deployed with them and simply given orders over the radio or are they centrally controlled somehow?

The latter is much easier to shut down. The former has the potential for user error or abuse.
Yes, lots of unknowns about it, other than it makes a US invasion even more costly and hopefully unlikely.

There was a rumor that Iran gave Hezbollah some of their Fateh-110 missiles after the assassination of the General. I have no idea is that is true, but if it is true, it stands to reason they may give some of these to Hezbollah or even Syria to use against US allies in that region.
 

Leonard D Neubache

Owl
Gold Member
No need for them to get froggy, honestly. They stand to lose more than they gain. Then again we have to see how things pan out in China, now. Everything is once again up in the air. No sense in worrying about it too much. Find the high ground and let the lunatics play their games. Remove your consent to participate.
 
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