The Coming War with Iran

911

Peacock
Gold Member
A military invasion of Iran along the lines of the Iraq War is going to be very hard to pull off, even for the zionist lobby, Iran having a missile arsenal that could heavily bomb all US bases surrounding it, resulting in thousands of US casualties. I don't think the US public has the stomach for this. And if Iran gets assistance from either China or Russia with hypersonic missiles (which could easily happen if tensions escalate further in the Ukraine or Taiwan), they will be able to sink carriers and hit other high-value US targets. It's orders of magnitude more complicated than the Iraq War.

It looks like Israel and the US will instead conduct a series of low-level 4th gen warfare , including sabotage operations, hacking and economic sanctions. Iran is in good shape though because the US is also ratcheting up sanctions on Russia and China, and as a block, these two countries become nearly immune to sanctions. That's why you see Blinken et al softening up on Russia in an effort break up their alliance.
 

La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
Everything in Iran is going BOOM.

This is why you have to establish powerful deterrents, even if it means a painful short term reaction. It should by now be clear that the US+Israel don't fear Iran, and that the country's unstable domestic political situation has seriously neutered its defense mechanisms

Iran's defense policy in this conflict (that started in 1979 and has morphed into a war in all but name) has relied on three pillars. 1. It's ballistic missile program 2. It's militias in the region and 3. It's nuclear weapon program (which is denied by Iran and parroted by anti-imperialist bots in the Western info-sphere, anyone that's been following this knows what is really happening though)

Israel+US have been constantly chipping away at Iran. We have now reached the point where there is no Iranian reaction at all - in fact they are trying to sweep it under the rug domestically in order not to look weak.

Last week an IRGC general was killed in Syria - no reaction. Vital scientists turning up death - no reaction. Essential infrastructure going boom - no reaction. Their main warship being sunk - no reaction. Iranian oil tankers being pirated/attacked anywhere on the globe - no reaction.

One can only hope that the re-signing of the JCPOA (talks are supposed to be entering their final stages) will bring more calm to the region, but when looking at the domestic US/Israeli situation the opposite might actually happen.

EDIT: same goes for their announced defense spending. Just BUY something for God's sake, those restrictions have ended nearly 6 months ago by now. Russians and Chinese are more than willing to sell. What are these people waiting for?
 
About Afghanistan (not sure where to post this), the withdrawal is not going great. That's a war you can't fight with just contractors

Afghan National Army unit(location unsure) defected, morale must be very low. That's at least 20 military vehicles for the Taliban, courtesy of the US money printing press


Many ANA defectors

This is something that was bound to happen, regardless if Trump was still president or not. There was never a coherent national armed forces in Afghanistan, so this kind of thing is inevitable. The only "solution" would be to keep spending untold billions and have troops there literally endlessly.
 

La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
This is something that was bound to happen, regardless if Trump was still president or not. There was never a coherent national armed forces in Afghanistan, so this kind of thing is inevitable. The only "solution" would be to keep spending untold billions and have troops there literally endlessly.
We already have the Saigon light helicopter scene


Qatari paid shill that has a rather powerful voice in the many think tanks picked up on it


As for the future of Afghanistan, this rapid takeover might lead to a new neocon offensive to revise this withdrawal or at least mitigate the effects.

Turkey has already agreed to protect Kabul International Airport, Erdogan might become NATOs workhorse yet again. The Turkic population in the North (primarily Uzbeks and Turkmenis) and West of the country would probably welcome such a move
 

ed pluribus unum

Pelican
Protestant
This is something that was bound to happen, regardless if Trump was still president or not. There was never a coherent national armed forces in Afghanistan, so this kind of thing is inevitable. The only "solution" would be to keep spending untold billions and have troops there literally endlessly.
Mark Steyn said it years ago; when the US finally pulls out of Afghanistan, within a week it will be like they had never been there.
 
We already have the Saigon light helicopter scene


Qatari paid shill that has a rather powerful voice in the many think tanks picked up on it


As for the future of Afghanistan, this rapid takeover might lead to a new neocon offensive to revise this withdrawal or at least mitigate the effects.

Turkey has already agreed to protect Kabul International Airport, Erdogan might become NATOs workhorse yet again. The Turkic population in the North (primarily Uzbeks and Turkmenis) and West of the country would probably welcome such a move
As always awesome job on the updates with this situation. It's incredible to watch this unfold and also incredible to see the absence of news coverage on this. Perhaps people wouldn't even care that much anymore anyway, or they don't like being reminded of what a futile and poorly run "war" looks like.
 

budoslavic

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member


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La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
Biden Administration pushing for repatriation and rehabilitation of the 10000+ IS prisoners held in the YPG occupied Syria


US airstrikes in Iraq/Syria border region, targeting (Iranian supported) Iraqi PMU groups. A US held oilfield was targeted after this after which the US carried out more strikes.


In my opinion the US will soon leave Syria, like it did in Yemen and is doing in Afghanistan. Biden's handlers are copying all of Trump's moves basically. Anyone with half a working brain knows that the current engagement in dozens of theaters around the world is unsustainable. They've already withdrawn the CIA shell company that was busy stealing Syria's oil (to finance the CIA black ops in Syria and elsewhere)

Those IS-ers, more than half women and children, need to be removed because if the PMU brigades get their hands on them it will be rivers of blood. The pseudo-commie Syrian Kurds are expendable will be thrown under the bus
 

La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
As always awesome job on the updates with this situation. It's incredible to watch this unfold and also incredible to see the absence of news coverage on this. Perhaps people wouldn't even care that much anymore anyway, or they don't like being reminded of what a futile and poorly run "war" looks like.
Much appreciated Robert.

The War in Afghanistan most definitely has lost its 'sexyness', up until a couple of weeks ago at least. Now all the internet analysts are running straight back at it. Big things are happening

My personal opinion is that Afghanistan will most likely return to civil war status and warlord-ism (something which the US now acknowledges). It is obvious that the Afghan National Government is in complete collapse. After the 1988 Soviet withdrawal the Soviet supported Najibullah-led government held out for ~3 years. It will be a small miracle of the US backed Afghan National Government will still control Kabul in December.

The Taliban has too many enemies, both domestically and abroad, to just take over Afghanistan and be done with it. There is a too much tribalism, intergenerational feud, vendetta and competing foreign interests for Afghanistan to walk into stability and progress.

The Taliban is heavily reliant on its Pashto base. The many other peoples of Afghanistan are much less enthusiastic about the prospect of a Taliban led Afghanistan. The Taliban never managed to fully conquer Afghanistan - up until 9/11 large parts of the North remained in the hands of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, which was a loose alliance based around the Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara and Turkmen minorities. Together these groups account for ~50 percent of the population

It's unclear whether the Taliban has been able to make the transition from Pashtun tribalism/Islamism to Afghan nationalism/Islamism. In many areas we are already seeing militias mobilizing. This indicates the opposite. The Tajik Jamiat-e-Islami is the most obvious. On the other hand, however, the Taliban is making huge gains in former NA strongholds.

The most rabid anti-Taliban people in Afghanistan are no doubt the Shia Hazara (and the much less numerous Parsiwan). Truth be told, the Taliban are not very nice people. They hold genocidal ambitions towards 'Shia apostates'. After the Mazar-i-Sharif fell to the Taliban in 1998 between 2 000 and 20 000 Shia were massacred and many more enslaved. The Taliban regularly bomb Shia mosques in Kabul and other big cities. At makeshift Taliban checkpoints Shia passengers are regularly held hostage and in some occasions executed.

These people do not want to live under Taliban rule.

It remains to be seen how much the Taliban has matured, an to what extent foreign actors (Qatar, Pakistan) can goad it into a more benevolent stance towards the country's 15-20% Shia minority.

Then there is the power vacuum and the greedy regional states - they all want a piece of the pie.

Pakistan. The Taliban was begotten by the Pakistani secret service, the ISI. It was the same ISI that in 2001 airlifted the Taliban/Al Qaida leadership out of Afghanistan and into the Tribal Areas of Pakistan. For more than a decade was the Quetta Shura based on Pakistani soil, as was OBL. During these years the Pakistanis played the US big time - and the US political class looked the other way. The Pakistani consider the Taliban their main bargaining chip to keep Indian influence in Afghanistan as low as possible

As it always does, cosying up with Islamists leads to increased instability at home. Zia al Haq's islamisation policy led to Pakistan turning into some sort of an Arabised Muslim India. The creation and support of the Taliban backfired massively as this this ideology soon led to the Pakistan Taliban, aka the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (the TTP is a completely separate organization from the Afghanistan Taliban). In the Civil War against the TTP ~100 000 people died and the country was heavily destabilised

Anno 2021 the TTP has lost all its bases in North West Pakistan, and resides in the Afghanistan border area.

Pakistan wants the Afghanistan Taliban, but they do not want the Pakistan Taliban. Question is whether the Pashto Afghanistan Taliban feels more supportive towards the Pashto TTP or towards the secular Punjabi Pakistani government

Iran. Iran has a difficult relationship with the Taliban. They supported the Afghanistan Shias (Hezb e Whadat militia) before 9/11, and then reprioritised their policy into a low level of support for the Taliban - as they knew they were next on the list of US invasions

Iran is in a stronger position than it has ever been for the last ~40 years. Khomeinist Twelver Shia Islam is their ideology and much of their foreign policy is structured around pulling states and communities into their orbit using this reality. They will not accept the persecution and massacring of the Twelver Shias in Afghanistan - a country which for much of its history was considered Iranian anyway, and whose national language is basically Persian

I believe Iran is not that interested in Afghanistan, but it wants friendly relations, stability and a country free or religious persecution. If the Taliban cannot provide this Iran will start arming and training the Shias (again). They also might redeploy the IRGC created Afghan Shia Fatemiyoun Brigade (~10 000 militants) that is currently deployed in the Syrian Desert fighting ISIS.

Turkey. Erdo not only considers himself The Sultan, he also considers himself the Khalief (in the tradition of the Ottoman Emperors). He has already agreed on supplying Turkish troops to guard Kabul International Airport, and knowing his delusions of grandeur, Turkish presence will gradually be increased.

What exactly his aims are is anyone's guess. Those Turkish troops will be sitting ducks at that airport. Maybe he thinks he can woe some of the ancient warlords like Dostum or Hekmatyar into low-key supporting him. I surely don't hope that he is actually considering banking on the Afghan National Government.

India. India has been trying to increase its influence in Afghanistan for years. It is a staunch supporter of the current lapdog government in which it sees/saw a reliable partner to counter Pakistan. Now that the government is collapsing, it has signaled its openness to improve relations with the Taliban.

Russia. Russia has a long history in Afghanistan and above all wants a stable and quiet southern border region. What happens in Afghanistan influences the FSU stans which are of great importance to Russia. The Russians, in general, don't like dealing with Jihadist/Islamist groups as these ideologies have created lots instability and violence within Russia. A lot will depend on whether the Taliban can make the transition into a matured, less radical, less bloodthirsty variant of itself. If it can, Russia will deal with them like it deals with for instance Saudi Arabia. If it can't, at some point the Russians might start supporting anti-Taliban groups

China. China needs a stable and quiet Afghanistan as the region is absolutely vital for its Belt and Road Initiative/ energy security. Their Central Asian pipeline infrastructure will soon be expanded further - 2 weeks ago they signed an agreement with Turkmenistan on greatly expanding the LPG delivery, and Kazakhstan will likely soon follow. The pipelines to and from Iran will run through this region as well.

Afghanistan's many rare minerals are another commodity the Chinese are eyeing. They have the financial means to replace the trillion dollar US investments that will soon dry up. However, will the Taliban rank and file except godless kuffar China stepping into the power vacuum left by the godless kuffar US? Why fight a 20 year long war if the main outcome will be Chinese companies-instead-of-US-companies extracting the country's resources for penny's on the dollar?

Another hot potato is the presence of Uyhgur jihadists on Afghan soil. The Chinese have stated that the US withdrawal will lead to an increased security threat inside China. The Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) has had training camps in the mountainous border area with Pakistan for decades. Many of the attacks in the 2007-2015 period were planned there. In 2016 the TIP leadership was relocated to Syria, where they now have their own fiefdom around Jisr al Shugur. Some Uyghurs remain in Afghanistan though. Will the Taliban sell them out because China says so? I consider it unlikely. They didn't sell Al Qaida out when the US demanded them too and fought a 20 year battle over it.

US. Whether the National Government falls or not, the US will remain a player. I am not sure what their strategy is, or if they even have one. However, due to its long history of supporting Islamist/Jihadist movement I wouldn't be surprised if at some point the US will start supporting armed factions to keep Afghanistan from becoming a stable and quiet country. It's location is perfect - a festering sore wedged in between China, Russia and Iran. The US still has military bases in Central Asia and is looking at Pakistan to open up new bases in the region.


The daily videos of the disintegrating Afghan forces




Good interactive map on the current zones of control. Allegedly the Taliban are avoiding taking big population centers as to not ruffle to many feathers (until the withdrawal has been completed)


This post has become much longer than anticipated. Afghanistan has huge importance. It's the canary in the coalmine for many reasons.
 
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La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
Shia militias launched suicide drones at US targets in Baghdad.


Biden's words days ago. Have read this in several articles, it's true. Trump's red line in these attacks was the killing of US servicemen.


Despite scoring military victories against the US and allies, the Axis of Resistance oriented states and organisationa are in a horrible state

Lebanon is experiencing mass civil unrest and hyperinflation. The country is being sanctioned due to the presence of Hezbollah.

Syria is in a similar boat minus the civil unrest. There are regular, long power outages and shortages of food and medicine.

Iraq is also being sanctiones due to the presence of 'pro-Iran' elements. As a result of this its electricity bills became unsustainable and Iran (their main electricity supplier) had to turn of the power. In some areas they are having 2-3 hours of electricity a day. It's summer now on Baghdad

Iran itself is sanctioned the most heavily. Similar power outages, no reports of fuel or food shortages though.


At this point armed conflict would be beneficial for these groups. The current stranglehold is unsustainable (this form of collective punishment isn't working either). Either the US pulls out and lifts the sanctions, or they will be attacked throughout the region

The neocons/neo-libs are probing and they are looking for conflict. It's only been 2 months since Ukraine was narrowly avoided. I wrote earlier that there are people within the US political class who want to get out of the Middle East, but the neo-cons do not belong to this group.

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Unrelated but very interesting. The website Responsible Statecraft has written a well sources article on a new neocon regime change for Turkey project.

The official name is of this group is The Turkey Democracy Project and in it is none other than John Bolton

Expect unexpected stuff.

 

Godward

Robin
If the United States is to engage in yet another perpetual war, I would not be surprised if they eventually reinstitute the military draft. No sensible young man of fighting age with a normal testosterone level would now willingly join the US Army (or any other NATO army for that matter). It is clearly becoming an army of lesbianic women, homosexuals and sad fappers, and you cannot win a war with that.


So, that leaves the US Army the following options to "defeat" its "enemies": 1. introducing a new generation of drones and robots, 2. reintroducing the use of WMD's, 3. reenlisting Jihadist mercenaries, like the US did with the Taliban, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra and the Islamic State, or 4. forcing disenfranchised and unemployed healthy young men of fighting age to fight oversees via the military draft. This last option has the additional "benefit" to the overlords of sending many of these "privileged", mostly White men to their deaths, so it should not be ruled out.
 

La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
This morning there was a suicide drone attack on a US base in Erbil, this evening a rocket attack on the AL Asad base in Anbar, and on the al Omar Oilfield/ camp in Syria





As some analysts now rightfully point out, the 'Shia militias' that the US likes to refer to (which are a wide variety of armed groups under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Units/ Hashd al Shaabi) are part of the Iraqi military
 

Thomas More

Hummingbird
If the United States is to engage in yet another perpetual war, I would not be surprised if they eventually reinstitute the military draft. No sensible young man of fighting age with a normal testosterone level would now willingly join the US Army (or any other NATO army for that matter). It is clearly becoming an army of lesbianic women, homosexuals and sad fappers, and you cannot win a war with that.


So, that leaves the US Army the following options to "defeat" its "enemies": 1. introducing a new generation of drones and robots, 2. reintroducing the use of WMD's, 3. reenlisting Jihadist mercenaries, like the US did with the Taliban, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra and the Islamic State, or 4. forcing disenfranchised and unemployed healthy young men of fighting age to fight oversees via the military draft. This last option has the additional "benefit" to the overlords of sending many of these "privileged", mostly White men to their deaths, so it should not be ruled out.
There's so much here it took me a while to see several things. I'm at work, so I couldn't hear what they are chanting, but I assume it is pozzed. I obviously see the female drill instructor. I also noticed the men have a weird way of marching, like they are only walking in step, not actually marching. They could be new recruits, and haven't developed the military bearing.

I noticed they are marching in tennis shoes, not boots. This is surprising. I noticed none of the men appear to be fat, in terms of having a poochy belly. However, as I looked closer, I realized that the men all look like soy boys. You would think that even new 18 yr old recruits would have at least some manly looking specimens, but they range from mildly soy to severely soy. The female drill instructor is more masculine than several of the recruits.

Believe it or not, it was only at this point I realized the recruits were all wearing masks! Good Grief!

What else do you guys see here?

Edit: I just noticed it's a long video, and it shows other drill instructors with other groups of marchers. Some of these groups have men in a more conventional uniform, marching correctly, and looking a lot more martial. Still, there are female recruits in most of the groups, and it's certainly not something to match the intimidating videos that the Russian Army puts out.
 
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La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
The Middle East is in serious trouble. The lockdowns and Corona BS have left these already unstable economies and political landscapes even more fragile. Lebanon is experiencing hyperinflation and heavily sanctioned. Syria& Yemen idem. Iraq is in a better situation (barely) economically but its political system is a ticking timebomb. Iran has a more fool-proof economy due to its history as a sanctioned state, but needs are rising there too (lots of protests in Khuzestan there due to drinking water shortages)

Even Turkey is now suffering from 15+ percent inflation and a falling lira. Tunisia, another 'example' of stability& progress witnessed a coup this week.

Frankly said some of these houses of cards will come tumbling down in the next 6 to 12 months.

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There are massive wildfires in many parts if Turkey. Many of these fires seem the result of arson, and Turkish media have now started framing the PKK as the culprits - revenge attacks are happening. I posted the GAE's plan to regime change Erdo out of the way not too long ago.

This sounds like a stretch but I wouldn't rule it out.


An Israel flagged ship was attacked by drone not far from Oman three days ago. Two sailors (Romanian and British) died in the attack. Today the Israeli PM came out with 'evidence' indicting Iran. Apparently they are mulling a severe response, possibly with backing of UK and USA


Yesterday a mid level Hezbollah member was assassinated during a wedding. During today's funeral procession the column was ambushed and several other Hezbollah members were killed as well

Never mind the mentioning of civil war; that phrase gets thrown around way too easily these days. Lebanon survived the Syrian Civil War in one piece and Hezbollah is too strong. But it should be obvious that there are certain actors pushing things. When they can't get what they want they go scorched earth out of spite.


 

La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
Lots of flexing right now on the Azeri/Turkish/ Iranian border. Iranians are upset over the Turkey-Pakistan-Azerbaijan drills in the area, the Israeli presence in Azerbaijan and the Turkey-Azeri plans to connect through Zangezur.



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Big win for Iran in Yemen. The Houthis have launched an offensive in Eastern Yemen taking over large parts and are now approaching Marib from the South (they are already at ~10 km distance on the Western side)

If Marib falls the Yemen Civil War might very well move to its end stage.


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LOL


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The Saudi-Russian s400 deal, the stolen Biden Administration's decision to declassify certain 9/11 related documents, the attempt at Saudi-Iranian ties normalisation..

GAE is about to lose a major partner in the Mid East


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Unrelated but this is spot on, lots of new hot zones right now, he is actually missing a few.
 
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Lots of flexing right now on the Azeri/Turkish/ Iranian border. Iranians are upset over the Turkey-Pakistan-Azerbaijan drills in the area, the Israeli presence in Azerbaijan and the Turkey-Azeri plans to connect through Zangezur.



--

Big win for Iran in Yemen. The Houthis have launched an offensive in Eastern Yemen taking over large parts and are now approaching Marib from the South (they are already at ~10 km distance on the Western side)

If Marib falls the Yemen Civil War might very well move to its end stage.


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The Saudi-Russian s400 deal, the stolen Biden Administration's decision to declassify certain 9/11 related documents, the attempt at Saudi-Iranian ties normalisation..

GAE is about to lose a major partner in the Mid East


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Unrelated but this is spot on, lots of new hot zones right now, he is actually missing a few.
Love your updates. Thanks for keeping us all up to date on this stuff.
 
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