The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III

Mountaineer

Kingfisher
Gold Member
The hoax has been exposed. We know that Bill & Co. and Chinese are behind this and their intentions are nefarious. This thread can only remain viable to observe if the virus has long term repercussions.
 

Hansel

Sparrow
This is what you cited:

Easy_C said:
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington reflects Dr. Facui’s comments. The IHME model projects 60,000 deaths from COVID-19 in the United States, just a fraction of what was first projected. Some of that reduction is due to social distancing policies that have been in effect for several weeks, better handwashing and other hygiene practices.
But your hypothesis is projections were catastrophic even though social distancing and hygiene measures were taken. The article you cited directly tells us this is not the case.

There is no meaningful debate when you can’t even properly cite things that support yourself. So let me ask this again: what assumptions did the catastrophic projections take into account? You should give solid proof before talking about it. Remember Rule 1, don’t debunk yourself mistakenly by the way.

And don’t play linguistics with me. You are deflecting my points and not answering to them. You clearly know what I was talking about on difference between the new models and variables. You know what I meant and that was a different projection outcome. You clearly know only a rudimentary explanation of projections models were needed simply because I shouldn’t need to do a thorough explanation.

That’s was you skeptics do. You deflect the real issues with numerous more bogus issues and attempt to distract the threads.
 

Easy_C

Crow
I did correctly cite those models. They're plastered all over this forum from posts in February/March should you care to look.

You're also attempting to strawman me as a "skeptic". My own early posts were in the tune of "holy shit this is going to be bad". If I can revise my assessment based on new data why can't you?
 

Easy_C

Crow
Handsome Creepy Eel said:
Easy_C, you're contradicting yourself here. First you say that (too) many deaths were predicted by models despite social distancing:

Your statement is false. Previous models predicted 200,000 deaths With full social distancing.
But then you quote an article saying that the deaths are fewer than initially projected due to social distancing:

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington reflects Dr. Facui’s comments. The IHME model projects 60,000 deaths from COVID-19 in the United States, just a fraction of what was first projected. Some of that reduction is due to social distancing policies that have been in effect for several weeks, better handwashing and other hygiene practices.
So the current 60,000-deaths model isn't the initial 200,000-death model revised downwards due to coronavirus being less dangerous - it's revised downwards because of the effectiveness of social distancing.

In other words, the model didn't overestimate deaths - it underestimated the power of social distancing.
No, Fauci is trying to downplay the error but still admitting it. He's attributing the improvement to "full social distancing". when the IMHE predicted 200,000 deaths "with full social distancing".

https://www.kff.org/news-summary/u-...d-responses-remain-disjointed-across-country/


U.S. Experts Predict Up To 200K American Deaths If Federal Social Distancing Guidance Followed; Responses Remain Disjointed Across Country
There's a number of projections from that period floating around and many of them were significantly higher than that range given.


Lefty Site Vox said April 1st there was a minimum of 100,00 even with "full social distancing": https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21202987/coronavirus-pandemic-trump-deaths



The total 18 month Lockdown policy was advocated by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College in London: https://www.thedailybeast.com/imper...uk-coronavirus-lockdowns-is-in-self-isolation

He originally said there would be 2 million deaths in the US. After testing positive himself Ferguson now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. and interestingly he now admits that more than half of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case because they were so old and sick



Amazing how simply pointing out that original models were grossly inaccurate means you're some kind of kooky science denier. It's remarkably leftist-like thinking.
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
Hope I'm wrong, but I'll be really surprised if USA doesn't reach 100,000 deaths. Italy had only 7,375 cases and 366 deaths on March 8th when it initiated a lockdown. After more than a month of these measures, when you could say that it is finally turning a corner, it now has 168,941 cases and 22,170 deaths, and it will get worse before it's completely over.

You can see the same effect in Spain, France and UK.

That means that if the long incubation, infection and killing duration of COVID-19 mean that cases generally increase 23 times and deaths increase 60 times from the tally that you have at the moment you started a lockdown, there is zero chance of USA not going past 100,000 deaths.

This goes double for USA, since the US lockdown is (despite the incessant whining about tyranny) very light-handed and comparably ineffective to most European lockdowns, let alone Chinese ones.

I hope that I'm wrong here of course. But I also know that upon reaching 100,000 USA deaths, the skeptics will still find something else to blame.

"The deaths are less than 1,000,000! The models were wrong!"
 

Going strong

Crow
Gold Member
Kona said:
^^^ You know Leonard the CDC says that if you are in Australia, you go outside and catch a kangaroo. Then you stick your head in the joey pouch. You shove it right in.

Steve Mnuchin is putting your stimulus checks in the pouches to encourage this.

Aloha!
As if we didn't have enough cross-species jumps, you're now adding Kangaroos to the equation!

Now, I don't know if it's a (CST) jump of imagination, but the famed (Nobel Prized) French Professor referred to above, has actually said that, the HIV sequences he saw implanted in the coronavirus molecular structure, cannot be "natural" as they would require the conscious work of a scientist "skillful as a watchmaker".
So, I guess the coronavirus was a laboratory creation, or the Devil's.
 
Hot from the presses:

"Herd immunity would only be reached in 25 years"
Helmholtz researchers use a number to explain why strict corona rules must remain
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/...e-corona-regeln-bleiben-muessen/25742256.html

Sure - 25 years of lockdowns and social distancing. Rotten pieces of shit spouting bullshit like never before. But 25 years of lockdowns and social distancing is no issue for true corona believers - what's 25 years of social distancing if you can save lives. Who needs herd immunity that is achieved in 4 weeks, when he can go into 25 years of totalitarian lockdowns under the Gates leadership.
==------------------------

Half the mortality in the UK is based due to people avoiding hospitals - official declaration!!!!
I wonder if other countries - less developed ones - may also be impacted tremendously via fear and panic, avoidance of hospitals, crime etc.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...as-fearful-patients-avoid-hospitals-bm73s2tw3

England and Wales have experienced a record number of deaths in a single week, with 6,000 more than average for this time of year.

Only half of those extra numbers were attributed to the coronavirus. Experts said they were shocked by the rise, particularly in non-Covid-19 deaths, and expressed concern that the lockdown might be having unintended consequences for people’s health.

There are fears that patients are not seeking help for life-threatening conditions, including heart attacks, because they are worried about catching coronavirus in hospital.

Experts said that conditions such as diabetes or high blood pressure may also be proving harder to manage during the lockdown.
No shit - hospitals do save lives normally.

---------------

They are already claiming in Denmark that the total shutdown went way too far.

https://jyllands-posten.dk/debat/breve/ECE12074246/vi-skulle-aldrig-have-trykket-paa-stopknappen/

We should never have pressed the stop button
Commentators and Monday coaches must turn off the flashlight: The Danish health service is in control of the situation. And the total shutdown was a step too far.
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
I thought the prevailing theory was that deaths were at a record low and that was the proof of the virus being fake... yet now they're suddenly at a record high? Can we get some consistency here please?
 
< Arguing with you moot, because you don't listen, you also don't amend your views when facts are presented.

Record mortality rates are prevalent in at least half of Europe and many other countries.

I posted Euromomo mortality stats from Week 15 and the spikes in some countries are there - all cause mortality. They reached strong flu seasons and weird spikes in other countries - we can argue what the reason for that is or whether even those countries would experience no spikes when Italy, Spain and the UK have cleaned out hospice/end-of-life patients from their final beds after a positive covid diagnosis and have turned those people into intensive care patients. Turns out that other spikes can be due to avoidance of hospitals.

The virus in my opinion plays probably a lower role in most cases.

You have to keep updated with the reality of things - just as Roosh didn't just remain in the same camp when faced with new evidence.
 

Paracelsus

Crow
Gold Member
Simeon_Strangelight said:
Hot from the presses:

"Herd immunity would only be reached in 25 years"
Helmholtz researchers use a number to explain why strict corona rules must remain
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/...e-corona-regeln-bleiben-muessen/25742256.html

Sure - 25 years of lockdowns and social distancing. Rotten pieces of shit spouting bullshit like never before. But 25 years of lockdowns and social distancing is no issue for true corona believers - what's 25 years of social distancing if you can save lives. Who needs herd immunity that is achieved in 4 weeks, when he can go into 25 years of totalitarian lockdowns under the Gates leadership.
Simeon, if you're going to post screed, can you at least post the actual relevant portion of the article for analysis and not just the misleading headline, or at least not force me to suffer Google Translate to read the link?

On Easter Monday, a group of researchers from the Helmholtz Association published recommendations on how to deal with the corona crisis. The researchers deviate from the recommendations of the Leopoldina in key points.

The central statement of the Helmholtz scientists : The contact restrictions will initially be continued and accompanied by accompanying measures so that the so-called reproductive number drops permanently and significantly below 1. A person infected would statistically infect less than another person.

These measures would have to take a few more weeks and be supplemented by a significantly expanded test strategy. In an interview, immunologist Michael Meyer-Hermann from the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research in Braunschweig explains which calculations the recommendation is based on.

Mr. Meyer-Hermann, the Helmholtz experts consider softening the current corona measures as a high risk. One of the key messages in your paper is that the time-dependent number of reproductions must never again exceed the value 1 that has now been reached. Why?
If the number of reproductions rises above 1, then each infected person will infect more than one other person. The virus would spread exponentially again. The calculations show that this would lead to an overload of the health system and that the patients could not be optimally or not at all cared for. It is essential to prevent this.

In your paper, you also argue that a number around 1 would be problematic. Why?
If we don't dry out the virus, the only way to get rid of it is through herd immunity or a vaccine . Hopefully we will have the vaccine next year. Herd immunity will only be achieved in many years if the capacity of the health system is maintained. Here's a simple calculation: Yesterday there were 2,500 new cases, that's one million a year, with an unreported figure maybe two million. Herd immunity has been reached in 50 million infected people. So roughly in 25 years.

In addition to your paper, the National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina also presented its recommendations on exit scenarios. For example, the Leopoldina advocates the rapid opening of primary and lower secondary schools. Would that be too early and a mistake from your point of view?
I cannot comment on individual measures as this does not dissolve our model. The Leopoldina paper is a perfect addition to our paper. It describes the gradual easing of measures from a societal perspective.

We added the perspective of mathematical modeling from a purely infection-dynamic point of view to support the timing of the exit. That is the value of the modeling: We can carry out a new assessment of the situation every day and make appropriate recommendations. Together, the two papers are a good basis for a safe, controlled and as quickly as possible return to normal.
So: bunch of dudes publish a paper and say that with quarantining processes alone -- i.e. if the only thing you do is quarantine -- it'll take 25 years for herd immunity to be reached. Nothing surprising there; the idea of quarantining is that the spread of the virus is slowed down, so by the same mechanic it stands to reason that herd immunity - if it's achievable - takes that much longer as well, assuming all you're doing is quarantining and socially isolating. However, if you combine quarantining with contract tracing, the time in which there are significant infections drops significantly. That is perfectly consistent with the R-nought principle, since R-nought assumes three things: (1) everyone is exposed (2) nobody's had it before (3) there's no way to control the spread.

And the primary reason you do that is because the contrary position - let the virus spread unchecked and wait for Herd Immunity to do its job - is because the communicability of the disease means exponentially more people get the disease at once, and accordingly the raw number of people who require hospitalisation skyrockets, overwhelming the hospital system where the ratio of ICU beds to population is small. But hey, we're all Objectivists now, so who gives a flying fornication about the elderly, amirite?

On top of that, these guys you are claiming are posting bullshit actually don't disagree at all with the proposal the interviewer seems to want to have them contradict, i.e. he tries to get them panic and say the schools shouldn't be reopened.

They say they agree with reopening of schools. At worst they seem to be just restating the R-nought principle. If you are saying these guys are advocating 25 years of quarantining, I think you have really misread this article.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Why are we expecting any kind of herd immunity? Other viruses (like the flu) mutate over time, so antibodies from a previous infection provide protection for only a short period of time. For the flu, this is less than a year. If SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is like other coronaviruses that currently infect humans, we can expect that people who get infected will be immune for months to years, but probably not their entire lives.
 

Zenta

Woodpecker
Gold Member
Yeah that post was kind of embarrassing.

Edit:
I will say that I was much more in the corona is BAD, millions will die camp at the height of all the insanity. Obviously the current numbers have shown us otherwise, I am not ignorant to ignore facts. Is that because corona is not as bad as first thought, or is it because the lockdowns and social distancing have worked to slow it? I don't know.

Personally, I find myself somewhat in the middle now. While I don't agree with the skeptic guys that its a nothingburger, I also don't believe its as bad as it was portrayed to us. I also believe given my heart condition I was born with along with just having a shitty immune system in general all my life, it is bad for ME. But in the big picture stuff will have to start opening up soon regardless because soon it will be like 9/11 where the aftermath does more harm then the attack itself.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Zenta said:
Is that because corona is not as bad as first thought, or is it because the lockdowns and social distancing have worked to slow it?
It will likely end up being both, but I still believe that prudence dictated great caution -- especially after what we saw develop in China and then Italy. How could any rational society possibly ignore those extreme signs of danger?

On the positive side, I believe that what the world learned during this pandemic will force governments to close borders far sooner to all non-citizens in a future pandemic, so that such massive economic disruptions are avoided in the future (i.e., by taking a small economic hit over temporary travel restrictions, rather than a massive economic hit over nation-wide lock downs). This pandemic will eviscerate the ridiculous notion that health-related travel bans are racist or xenophobic.
________________

One side-effect of the stay-at-home orders is that auto fatalities have declined as much a 100% in some areas.

COVID-19 Caused Largest Drop of Fatal Car Accidents in US History
By Lynn Allison | Friday, 17 April 2020 12:41 PM

The deadly virus has negatively affected almost every aspect of our lives, but there is a surprising upside to the pandemic. COVID-19 has reduced fatal car crashes more than any other event in history.

In Seattle, there has been a 100% drop in fatal accidents and the Massachusetts Department of Transportation reports that crashes are down by 75 percent. In New York City, deadly crashes were down by 33% and in Los Angeles they were slashed by half.

Top researcher Duane Gibson, writing for AutoInsuranceEZ.com, gathered the data and presented the surprising report.

Overall traffic across the U.S. is down 38% under the coronavirus pandemic, which has many folks staying home. According to AutoInsuranceEZ, that ranks the pandemic #1 on their list of events in history that reduced fatal car crashes.

In Washington state, one of the epicenters of the pandemic, traffic fatalities are down 100% in comparison to this time last year.
https://www.newsmax.com/health/heal...dent-fatal-stay-at-home/2020/04/17/id/963388/
 

SlickyBoy

Ostrich
Tail Gunner said:
On the positive side, I believe that what the world learned during this pandemic will force governments to close borders far sooner to all non-citizens in a future pandemic, so that such massive economic disruptions are avoided in the future (i.e., by taking a small economic hit over temporary travel restrictions, rather than a massive economic hit over nation-wide lock downs). This pandemic will eviscerate the ridiculous notion that health-related travel bans are racist or xenophobic.
Maybe. Unfortunately what the world learns versus what it remembers are two very different things. We in the US learned to wear masks during the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, as did the Japanese.

As a result, the Japanese never stopped wearing masks in public, at work or wherever as a method to prevent spreading sickness. Meanwhile in America it's a miracle people even know how to wash their hands.

Before last month many people never heard of the Spanish flu and probably thought it was a 4chan reference to illegal immigrants.
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
I think the most important thing is that after the crisis dies down there is a serious reckoning* for:

A) People who decided to bail out stock market gamblers and fund endless wars while fiddling over a pathetic rescue package to citizens
B) People who continued importing and enabling illegal immigrants while the citizens were imprisoned in their homes
C) People who left us unable to manufacture even the simplest pieces of plastic colloquially known as "surgical masks"

* and by "serious reckoning", I of course mean firing squads, although I would settle merely for having them fired and banned from holding any public office ever again.

This will of course never happen, but...

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one...
 

Dr. Howard

Peacock
Gold Member
Handsome Creepy Eel said:
I think the most important thing is that after the crisis dies down there is a serious reckoning* for:

A) People who decided to bail out stock market gamblers and fund endless wars while fiddling over a pathetic rescue package to citizens
B) People who continued importing and enabling illegal immigrants while the citizens were imprisoned in their homes
C) People who left us unable to manufacture even the simplest pieces of plastic colloquially known as "surgical masks"

* and by "serious reckoning", I of course mean firing squads, although I would settle merely for having them fired and banned from holding any public office ever again.

This will of course never happen, but...

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one...
No one went to jail for 2008, it ain't gonna happen this time either unless there is a total revolt or collapse.
 

AnonymousBosch

Crow
Gold Member
SlickyBoy said:
... I believe that what the world learned during this pandemic
It won't have learnt anything, and never will. Any coming changes to the narrative will be purely because those in power will it and programme the desired response from a population incapable of doing anything but choosing from a pre-selected narrative, even those who think they're 'independent thinkers'. They will blame and hate the group dictated by their chosen narrative, but no-one will be punished and nothing will change.
 
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