The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III

Breitbart claiming that COVID-19 is "not only just a flu, it's even more harmless than the flu" while simultaneously blasting China for "untold damages and suffering caused by its concealment of the deadly virus" is really the bottom of the barrel. They've turned into a conservative version of CNN.
I don't read Breitbart but that's only true if the same authors wrote both viewpoints.
 

Vienna

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Ok so no HCQ and no Remdesivir...then what are they doing?

Im just trying to understand what is helping early stages not go downhill
Oxygen support, individualized breathing exercise and mobilization (proning, side-lying, sitting, walking, PEP breathing depending on status in order to avoid or lessen severity of pneumonia). Simple stuff. Since I know next to nothing of drug therapies I can’t give any clues concerning that.

As to what helps early stage not to go downhill... We simply don’t know yet. All doctors I talk to are scratching their heads. There are no clear warning signs or patterns to when/if patients become more severely ill. A patient can be ”fine” one day, requiring no oxygen; the next day I see the patient he’s on 10 liter O2 and being assessed by the ICU team.
 

Papaya

Crow
Gold Member
I saw a report a couple weeks by a British doctor dealing with the disease. He said his experience has been that fever of 101 F / 38.33 C is a very significant tipping point. If he is able to keep his patients at or below that threshold then they are faring much much better and have a much faster recovery

If I can find it Ill post it (Unless someone else has it)
 

Emancipator

Hummingbird
Gold Member
I saw a report a couple weeks by a British doctor dealing with the disease. He said his experience has been that fever of 101 F / 38.33 C is a very significant tipping point. If he is able to keep his patients at or below that threshold then they are faring much much better and have a much faster recovery

If I can find it Ill post it (Unless someone else has it)
Oxygen support, individualized breathing exercise and mobilization (proning, side-lying, sitting, walking, PEP breathing depending on status in order to avoid or lessen severity of pneumonia). Simple stuff. Since I know next to nothing of drug therapies I can’t give any clues concerning that.

As to what helps early stage not to go downhill... We simply don’t know yet. All doctors I talk to are scratching their heads. There are no clear warning signs or patterns to when/if patients become more severely ill. A patient can be ”fine” one day, requiring no oxygen; the next day I see the patient he’s on 10 liter O2 and being assessed by the ICU team.
I posted in the I have the Rona' thread, but the movement stuff you listed like breathing exercises + prone were really key in addition to other steps I took, had stupid low o2 sats showing too but didn't show any dire signs/stress of hypoxia, luckily never really crossed that fever threshold (Papaya, I think TailGunner shared something re: fever)

A somewhat elderly close contact with conditions(which was how we traced it to be CV) that was in the hospital was only monitored and given oxygen, not ICU though.
 

Troller

Woodpecker
Source:

The US CDC public health experts have released their recommendations on how to reopen businesses safely in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the Trump administration has rejected these recommendations and has reportedly told CDC officials that their plan "would never see the light of day".

The 17-page document, was originally scheduled to be released last Friday but was refused.

The guide provides detailed, step-by-step recommendations on how to safely re-open nurseries, schools, daycare centers, religious communities, businesses employing vulnerable workers, restaurants, bars, and public transportation. Although some of the general points made are already on federal websites - such as the emphasis on hand hygiene - the document offers recommendations tailored to each type of business.

For example, the section on reopening daycares recommends avoiding stuffed toys, making sure each child has their own plate during meals, and staggering drop-off and pick-up times for parents. Recommendations for restaurants include the installation of physical barriers, such as sneeze guards, around the docking stations and a ban on using buttons to take a ticket for your place in the queue.

While such detailed recommendations from public health experts are likely to be welcomed by business owners, they would have been a sticking point for the Trump administration. According to anonymous sources close to the administration, the White House refrained from giving such details because the different regions of the country present variable levels of transmission of the disease.


Spain:

3349 cases on May 1
2579 May 2
1555 May 3
1179 May 4
... then
2260 May 5
3121 May 6
3173 May 7
3262 May 8


Italy:

1965 May 1
1900 May 2
1389 May 3
1221 May 4
1075 May 5
... then
1444 May 6
1566 May 7
how many today?

United Kingdom :

6200 May 1
4807 May 2
4339 May 3
3985 May 4
... then
4406 May 5
6111 May 6
5614 May 7
how many today?

Germany:

1068 May 1
890 May 2
697 May 3
488 May 4
... then
855 May 5
1155 May 6
1268 May 7
how many today?

Swiss :

119 May 1
112 May 2
88 May 3
76 May 4
May 28
... then
51 May 6
66 May 7
81 today at noon ...

It has been exactly two weeks since the above-mentioned countries began to talk about lax measures in the first part of May.
People have been thinking for exactly two weeks that the worst is behind us.
The numbers are going up everywhere at the same time and at exactly the same time.

Portugal:
End of April, ~ 180 cases per day

145 cases on May 1
0 cases on May 2
92 cases on May 3
242 cases on May 4
178 cases on May 5
... then
480 cases on May 6
533 cases on May 7
553 cases today ...
16.0K views

All the countries mentioned, Portugal included, started to lift the restrictions/deconfinement 10-15 days ago and the increase is synchronized absolutely everywhere.

This cannot be the result of chance, there are no more tests carried out, and the fact that it is everywhere the same shows that the cause is common, otherwise the dates and proportions would vary greatly from country to country. 'other.
We will therefore have to be very careful over the next few days and weeks and watch the figures closely. This may just be a short-term "statistical effect", but if growth were to last a few days or more, it would call into question many things.
 

Attachments

Vienna

Kingfisher
Gold Member
I posted in the I have the Rona' thread, but the movement stuff you listed like breathing exercises + prone were really key in addition to other steps I took, had stupid low o2 sats showing too but didn't show any dire signs/stress of hypoxia, luckily never really crossed that fever threshold (Papaya, I think TailGunner shared something re: fever)
Happy to hear that you recovered well. I want to stress that depending on a patient’s status, I might ”prescribe” only sitting, proning or sidelying. If for example saturation is low or unstable when moving, it’s better to rest and focus energy on breathing and letting the body deal with the infection, than wasting energy and maybe actually causing the patient to ”crash”.

As a primary care/sports physio I’m more used to pushing patients, but when it comes to Covid it’s the other way around. Having respect for the extreme fatigue/hypoxia and not moving unless you have a purpose is our current clinical practice with many hospitalized patients.
 

Travesty

Crow
Gold Member
This cannot be the result of chance, there are no more tests carried out, and the fact that it is everywhere the same shows that the cause is common, otherwise the dates and proportions would vary greatly from country to country. 'other.
We will therefore have to be very careful over the next few days and weeks and watch the figures closely. This may just be a short-term "statistical effect", but if growth were to last a few days or more, it would call into question many things.
Thanks for all that info, I am not sure what can be called into question. I think it will be forced to be accepted if you have X cases per capita or above the cat is out of the bag and their is no hope for contact tracing without a 6 months+ strict lockdown. China took months once they had it in Wuhan to get it under control we have only gone a month and half before opening with 20x+ the cases floating around. I am sure that the more cases per capita it is much more than 1:1 cases per to capita to lockdown time ratio to get the number down.

All the aforementioned countries are in a place with no winning. If there was magic and everyone acted like China did voluntarily without the authoritarian boot stomp it could be contained and that won't happen. Western idealism won't let it.
 

Easy E

Kingfisher
Thanks for all that info, I am not sure what can be called into question. I think it will be forced to be accepted if you have X cases per capita or above the cat is out of the bag and their is no hope for contact tracing without a 6 months+ strict lockdown. China took months once they had it in Wuhan to get it under control we have only gone a month and half before opening with 20x+ the cases floating around. I am sure that the more cases per capita it is much more than 1:1 cases per to capita to lockdown time ratio to get the number down.

All the aforementioned countries are in a place with no winning. If there was magic and everyone acted like China did voluntarily without the authoritarian boot stomp it could be contained and that won't happen. Western idealism won't let it.
There are probably going to be some states where the outbreak will get under control (Washington, California, Hawaii, etc) since the outbreak never got too bad to begin with and deaths & hospitalizations are declining, but with interstate travel, the USA will be a mess for some time to come.

Then again, maybe the Summer will help some states out since new research shows the coronavirus doesn't last long in direct sunlight or high heat.
 
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Oz.

Pelican
Been seeing a lot of fear mongering on the news about COVID affecting fertility so I decided to look into it. Found the below study:

https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevi...h Advance/journals/fns/fns_revised_images.pdf

Conclusion

The results presented here can only be considered indicative and require verification. Our results cannot rule out the possibility that proteases other than TMPRSS2(including CTSL), may facilitate viral entry in some cells such as primordial oocytes (100% of which have detectedACE2and BSGtranscripts). Nonetheless, they add to a growing body of evidence suggestingthat most aspects of reproduction during the COVID-19 pandemic areunlikely to be associated with increased risks of clinical complications. The amount of data currently available is small, but thus far there is no indication of an increased incidence of severe disease amongst pregnant women and obstetric outcomes for babies born to mothers infected with SARS-CoV-2 appear to be within the normal range(30). Furthermore, viral RNA has not been detected in semen or testicular biopsy specimens from infected men(23). The results of the current study suggest that sperm and cumulus-enclosed oocytes are unlikely to be susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2 and consequently it should be possible to undertake oocyte collection and fertilization, followed by in vitroembryo culture and cryopreservation with minimal risk to the embryosproduced. Indeed, considering the lack of knowledge concerning the risk of infection during in vivopreimplantation development, implantation and early pregnancy, it is possible that IVFmay represent a safer reproductive strategy than natural conceptionat this time. Given that the success rates of IVF treatments decline at an ever accelerating rate as the age of the female patient increases (falling by approximately 0.3% per month from the mid-thirties, according to data from the Society of Assisted Reproductive Technologiesand the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority), it is imperative that delays to fertility treatments are minimized. Provided adequate precautions can be instituted to ensure the safety of patients attending fertility clinics, as well as clinical staff, it seems reasonable to consider the reintroduction of IVF treatments (at a minimum cycles involving cryopreservation of embryos) in countries where the ability of patients to access such procedures has been denied or severely limited.
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
Croatia is also seeing a bounce in coronavirus cases:

14 cases on April 30th
9 cases on May 1
3 cases on May 2
8 cases on May 3
5 cases on May 4
11 cases on May 5
... then
7 cases on May
6 cases on May 7
36 cases today ...


Same thing as Italy, Spain, UK, et al - the government reopened things, people thought the epidemic was over and behaved recklessly, and now we're heading back to the beginning, just at a slower pace.
 

Travesty

Crow
Gold Member
There are probably going to be some states where the outbreak will get under control (Washington, California, Hawaii, etc) since the outbreak never got too bad to begin with and deaths & hospitalizations are declining, but with interstate travel, the USA will be a mess for some time to come.

Then again, maybe the Summer will help some states out since new research shows the coronavirus doesn't last long in direct sunlight or high heat.
Maybe, it is said by the numbers people that 5-20m tests per day would be needed in the U.S. to contain the virus countrywide without state & metro travel bans. We are now just breaking past an average of 300k (not discounting false positives, and false negatives) a day. It would take 3 years to test every American once at the current rate. If this comes back again in winter, much before any successful vaccine is widely distributed, with a different strain like influenza then any testing we have done or people that have recovered doesn't mean anything.

There should be no confidence in national containment until draconian restriction are in place or we are testing at least a few million a day. That very likely won't happen in 2020.
 

Troller

Woodpecker
Source:

4,000,000 official (confirmed) cases in the world exceeded at the moment, more than 6,600,000 if we believe the WHO models, more than 10,000,000 if we take a medium range considering that many asymptomatic are not tested, and up to 20 million if we believe some studies.

A huge fire takes place in one of the biggest hospitals in Moscow where many cases of COVID-19 are treated.
 
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