The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III

EvanWilson

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Over the weekend I got to listen to some C-SPAN, mainly congressional hearings. One alarming few minutes was a Congress woman talking about how there is no national plan on the outbreak response. So basically after over two months of lock downs, Congress still has no idea or plan on what should be done or where things are.
 

Easy_C

Crow
Side note: I stealth polled some Gamer discord servers last night what they thought the death rate is.

Responses varied from 5.7% to 11%

Matching the high and low ends of both that and scientific estimates means..... people think this 110 to 1350x more deadly than it actually is.

That’s an insane perception error and is indicative of a mass hysteria.
 

Travesty

Crow
Gold Member
Does anyone know what second wave means? Does that mean a stronger mutation happens, weather changes, or people congregate more closely? Is second wave just a catch all term for "it spread more later in time for any possible number of reasons combine in a way we don't really know how"?
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
Cloth mask laws are what that’s lobbying for and those actually are useless.
Surgical masks are of course better because they filter more and fit more snugly, but it's not at all true that cloth masks are useless. Saying "oh but the virus is only 20 nm in size, therefore the virus passes through masks easily" is one of those horrible, scientifically-accurate-but-real-world-autistic misdirections that IYIs like to spread in an attempt to sound smart.

First of all, viruses don't move at all by themselves, and if they are carried by something, it's most likely to be a droplet of saliva, which is a lot bigger than that 20 nm (and usually bigger than the gaps in even the flimsiest mask). You are not likely to run into a droplet with a virus inside and somehow extricate the virus out of the droplet and inhale it.

Then there is an issue of viral load. Just inhaling a single viral particle (or even hundreds of viral particles) is unlikely to get you sick because a certain amount is needed to get past the body's outer defenses in the nostrils and membranes. You need to be exposed to a significant amount of the virus, often from multiple droplets, so anything that's stopped by a mask of any sort will help by reducing that amount.

You could also pick up a droplet from touching a contaminated surface and then transferring it to your face when you pick your nose or lips or rub your eyes, but a mask will make it drastically less likely for you to touch your face before you wash or disinfect them, so that's an obvious plus too.

Finally, if you're sick but don't know it (or know it but still have to interact with others for whatever reason), a mask is amazingly efficient at preventing you from exhaling droplets. Even a pathetic napkin stops all of it (of course, you have to get the napkin to your face in time, while the mask is in place automatically). Check out this shadowgraph video of sneezing for an illustration:


So surgical masks help tremendously, even improvised cloth masks help a lot, and I strongly suspect that the reason we have been given statements to the contrary was to hide the fact that our traitorous governments have left us unable to manufacture even something so basic and simple.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
By happenstance, I just read this article, written by a medical doctor, about the potential dangers of wearing a face mask. It is well-worth reading the entire article, but here is a brief excerpt and the conclusion:

They found that about a third of the workers developed headaches with use of the mask, most had preexisting headaches that were worsened by the mask wearing, and 60% required pain medications for relief. As to the cause of the headaches, while straps and pressure from the mask could be causative, the bulk of the evidence points toward hypoxia and/or hypercapnia as the cause. That is, a reduction in blood oxygenation (hypoxia) or an elevation in blood C02 (hypercapnia). It is known that the N95 mask, if worn for hours, can reduce blood oxygenation as much as 20%, which can lead to a loss of consciousness, as happened to the hapless fellow driving around alone in his car wearing an N95 mask, causing him to pass out, and to crash his car and sustain injuries. I am sure that we have several cases of elderly individuals or any person with poor lung function passing out, hitting their head. This, of course, can lead to death.

A more recent study involving 159 healthcare workers aged 21 to 35 years of age found that 81% developed headaches from wearing a face mask.3 Some had pre-existing headaches that were precipitated by the masks. All felt like the headaches affected their work performance.

Unfortunately, no one is telling the frail elderly and those with lung diseases, such as COPD, emphysema or pulmonary fibrosis, of these dangers when wearing a facial mask of any kind--which can cause a severe worsening of lung function. This also includes lung cancer patients and people having had lung surgery, especially with partial resection or even the removal of a whole lung.

* * *

It is evident from this review that there is insufficient evidence that wearing a mask of any kind can have a significant impact in preventing the spread of this virus. The fact that this virus is a relatively benign infection for the vast majority of the population and that most of the at-risk group also survive, from an infectious disease and epidemiological standpoint, by letting the virus spread through the healthier population we will reach a herd immunity level rather quickly that will end this pandemic quickly and prevent a return next winter. During this time, we need to protect the at-risk population by avoiding close contact, boosting their immunity with compounds that boost cellular immunity and in general, care for them. One should not attack and insult those who have chosen not to wear a mask, as these studies suggest that is the wise choice to make.
 

Easy_C

Crow
Surgical masks are of course better because they filter more and fit more snugly, but it's not at all true that cloth masks are useless. Saying "oh but the virus is only 20 nm in size, therefore the virus passes through masks easily" is one of those horrible, scientifically-accurate-but-real-world-autistic misdirections that IYIs like to spread in an attempt to sound smart.



Data lacking to recommend broad mask use
We do not recommend requiring the general public who do not have symptoms of COVID-19-like illness to routinely wear cloth or surgical masks because:

  • There is no scientific evidence they are effective in reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission
  • Their use may result in those wearing the masks to relax other distancing efforts because they have a sense of protection
  • We need to preserve the supply of surgical masks for at-risk healthcare workers.
Sweeping mask recommendations—as many have proposed—will not reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission, as evidenced by the widespread practice of wearing such masks in Hubei province, China, before and during its mass COVID-19 transmission experience earlier this year. Our review of relevant studies indicates that cloth masks will be ineffective at preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, whether worn as source control or as PPE.
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
Well, I don't take Fauci's statements as gospel, seeing how his advice (and WHO's and that of most major scientists) has been all over the place and a great example of IYI-ism that I described above. I just try to make my own conclusions from the available data using common sense, which I believe can even be seen visually:

1589827259331.png

As I said before, it is likely that he said this in order to save face over the following national embarrassment:

We need to preserve the supply of surgical masks for at-risk healthcare workers.
 

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BetaNoMore

Woodpecker
This mask vs. no mask argument is so asinine.

1. If masks don't work, I guess health care workers are doomed because the masks they wear when dealing with influenza-like illnesses in regular care don't work.

2. N95 vs. surgical masks offer about the same level of protection in regular care in this imperfect study: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214

3. In addition to the previous study, there's multiple studies that show masks work to prevent the spread and reception of respiratory/influenza-like illnesses. This also makes sense logically.

4. Where people say "there's no evidence", this is based on technicalities and quibbles. It's true that most people don't wear masks properly - this is even true among healthcare workers. Mask wearers often pull mask down, touch their masks etc. However, a mask worn properly does provide protection. Extending this logic to hand-washing: perhaps we should say screw it to hand-washing because many people don't wash their hands properly either.

It's disheartening to see so many smart guys on here not fully understanding what they're talking about and then trying to give advice to others. I've refrained from posting a lot of things as so many guys here are completely out to lunch with so many extreme conspiracy theories that with any amount of scrutiny, don't hold any weight.
 
This mask vs. no mask argument is so asinine.

1. If masks don't work, I guess health care workers are doomed because the masks they wear when dealing with influenza-like illnesses in regular care don't work.

2. N95 vs. surgical masks offer about the same level of protection in regular care in this imperfect study: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214

3. In addition to the previous study, there's multiple studies that show masks work to prevent the spread and reception of respiratory/influenza-like illnesses. This also makes sense logically.

4. Where people say "there's no evidence", this is based on technicalities and quibbles. It's true that most people don't wear masks properly - this is even true among healthcare workers. Mask wearers often pull mask down, touch their masks etc. However, a mask worn properly does provide protection. Extending this logic to hand-washing: perhaps we should say screw it to hand-washing because many people don't wash their hands properly either.

It's disheartening to see so many smart guys on here not fully understanding what they're talking about and then trying to give advice to others. I've refrained from posting a lot of things as so many guys here are completely out to lunch with so many extreme conspiracy theories that with any amount of scrutiny, don't hold any weight.
Health care workers (ie: doctors, nurses, crts, etc) are intimately exposed to sick hospitalized patients for prolonged periods of time. On the other hand, the general public doing everyday activities such as visiting the grocery store are for the most part not being exposed to sick patients. Therefore, the evidential base is very limited to none that there is a significant benefit for the general public to be wearing a mask.
 

Excalibur

Sparrow
People who don't want to wear mask are going to cherry pick data to support their stance. Fauci stated in March that wearing mask is not necessary because at that time they did not know there is spread from asymptomatic patient, AND also to back paddle the fact that US was way behind in stockpiling masks for healthcare workers that they were afraid the public was going to buy up all the masks. Now that they know there is asymptomatic spread, they encourage mask use by everyone.

Sure if you wear a n95 mask with a perfect seal you can get a headache but probably not from high CO2 and definitely not from hypoxia. A regular bandana or a thin surgical mask will not decrease your minute ventilation by 0.1%. High CO2 happens only if you have severely depressed minute ventilation. If you get a headache from it its because you tie that rubber band too tightly on you head. And for most people, how long are you going to wear mask anyway - 1 hour a week in the supermarket. I don't wear mask when I am alone in the car, running on the beach....

Coronavirus was spreading in Japan way before the US, and Los Angeles country with all the lockdown has more cases and fatality than the entire country of Japan. Japan never locked down. People wore mask and practice social distancing.

People who don't want to wear mask are like kids throwing a tantrum by peeing in their own swimming pool. Oh urine is not dirty, it has no bacteria in it... I don't want anyone to impose on my civil liberty because I am a powerless toddler, and the only way I can exert my power is by peeing in the swimming pool to show the global elite who is in charge. This result in US becoming a cesspool of a country with urine, piss, feces, saliva everywhere.
 

Easy_C

Crow
It’s the CLOTH masks specifically that are useless. Medical grade masks .

That chart also is a great example of spurious correlation. The difference isn’t just “masks”. It’s different genetics, with different cultures (all “face” cultures), hygiene norms that are dramatically different beyond just “masks”, different stages of the outbreak (they got hit first), different population densities, and different political factors among other things.

Just writing “masks” on the graph doesn’t actually prove that there’s a statistically significant, Covariance stationary predictive impact to wearing masks let alone a crappy cloth mask.
 

BetaNoMore

Woodpecker
Health care workers (ie: doctors, nurses, crts, etc) are intimately exposed to sick hospitalized patients for prolonged periods of time. On the other hand, the general public doing everyday activities such as visiting the grocery store are for the most part not being exposed to sick patients. Therefore, the evidential base is very limited to none that there is a significant benefit for the general public to be wearing a mask.
How are viruses and illnesses usually spread? The general public isn't picking them up because they're hanging out at hospitals for prolonged time.

Going for a walk outside? Of course you don't need a mask. Going on public transit or any other area with dense amount of people? That's where respiratory illnesses are being spread.
 

BetaNoMore

Woodpecker
It’s the CLOTH masks specifically that are useless. Medical grade masks .

That chart also is a great example of spurious correlation. The difference isn’t just “masks”. It’s different genetics, with different cultures (all “face” cultures), hygiene norms that are dramatically different beyond just “masks”, different stages of the outbreak (they got hit first), different population densities, and different political factors among other things.

Just writing “masks” on the graph doesn’t actually prove that there’s a statistically significant, Covariance stationary predictive impact to wearing masks let alone a crappy cloth mask.
Single ply cloth face masks are useless... double ply is actually decently effective.
 

Easy_C

Crow
Every single one of these posts uses one sleight of hand that does not appear to me to be arguing from good faith.

First what I posted. Let's see if anyone can spot the difference:

Our review of relevant studies indicates that cloth masks will be ineffective at preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, whether worn as source control or as PPE.
People who don't want to wear mask are like kids throwing a tantrum by peeing in their own swimming pool. Oh urine is not dirty, it has no bacteria in it... I don't want anyone to impose on my civil liberty because I am a powerless toddler, and the only way I can exert my power is by peeing in the swimming pool to show the global elite who is in charge. This result in US becoming a cesspool of a country with urine, piss, feces, saliva everywhere.

Well, I don't take Fauci's statements as gospel, seeing how his advice (and WHO's and that of most major scientists) has been all over the place and a great example of IYI-ism that I described above. I just try to make my own conclusions from the available data using common sense, which I believe can even be seen visually:
This mask vs. no mask argument is so asinine.

1. If masks don't work, I guess health care workers are doomed because the masks they wear when dealing with influenza-like illnesses in regular care don't work.

2. N95 vs. surgical masks offer about the same level of protection in regular care in this imperfect study: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214
Health care workers (ie: doctors, nurses, crts, etc) are intimately exposed to sick hospitalized patients for prolonged periods of time. On the other hand, the general public doing everyday activities such as visiting the grocery store are for the most part not being exposed to sick patients. Therefore, the evidential base is very limited to none that there is a significant benefit for the general public to be wearing a mask.

All of these posters are attempting to discount the results of the study by changing the argument they're attacking from "cloth masks" to "masks" and "surgical masks". That changes the entire meaning of the statement and allows them to then say things like that I'm a "kid throwing a tantrum" based off a non-existent straw argument they created.
 

BetaNoMore

Woodpecker
People who don't want to wear mask are going to cherry pick data to support their stance. Fauci stated in March that wearing mask is not necessary because at that time they did not know there is spread from asymptomatic patient, AND also to back paddle the fact that US was way behind in stockpiling masks for healthcare workers that they were afraid the public was going to buy up all the masks. Now that they know there is asymptomatic spread, they encourage mask use by everyone.

Sure if you wear a n95 mask with a perfect seal you can get a headache but probably not from high CO2 and definitely not from hypoxia. A regular bandana or a thin surgical mask will not decrease your minute ventilation by 0.1%. High CO2 happens only if you have severely depressed minute ventilation. If you get a headache from it its because you tie that rubber band too tightly on you head. And for most people, how long are you going to wear mask anyway - 1 hour a week in the supermarket. I don't wear mask when I am alone in the car, running on the beach....

Coronavirus was spreading in Japan way before the US, and Los Angeles country with all the lockdown has more cases and fatality than the entire country of Japan. Japan never locked down. People wore mask and practice social distancing.

People who don't want to wear mask are like kids throwing a tantrum by peeing in their own swimming pool. Oh urine is not dirty, it has no bacteria in it... I don't want anyone to impose on my civil liberty because I am a powerless toddler, and the only way I can exert my power is by peeing in the swimming pool to show the global elite who is in charge. This result in US becoming a cesspool of a country with urine, piss, feces, saliva everywhere.
This is true. This civil liberties argument is silly. You're not having anything taken away from you if you have to wear a mask for a little while so people can get on with their lives until there's herd immunity or a care/safe vaccine. It really is like a child throwing a tantrum because he doesn't want to be told what to do even though it's the right thing.
 
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