The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III

Travesty

Crow
Gold Member
Brazil Donkey Kong wind up punch releasing, 21k new cases today by far all time high and surpassing U.S. for most daily cases today. U.S. worst day was 30k cases. They will likely be second in world for total cases on their way to #1 starting tomorrow. Sao Paulo I guess announced a 5 day holiday to get people to stay home that it is that bad. Two health ministers have left the federal gov. one after the other. I don't see numbers slowing down there. I see India maybe faring a bit better, Brazil just seems like a place with much less order in general. Also I've met a lot of Indian doctors and engineers, they will figure something out. From Brazil I've just met guys that like to dance, party, enjoy simple pleasures, not a lot of serious doctor or engineer types.

I keep mentioning them because in ways like China all the Brazilian slums like wet markets and crazy jungle bats like pangolins & panda bears offer room for mutation if they end up having millions of cases which is almost in stone... somewhere like Sweden would not have the same issues if it was overrun.

Imagine if the virus gave women blonde hair and bigger breasts though? Would there be an outcry or world peace?
 
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Wreckingball

Pelican
Brazil Donkey Kong wind up punch releasing, 21k new cases today by far all time high and surpassing U.S. for most daily cases today. U.S. worst day was 30k cases. They will likely be second in world for total cases on their way to #1 starting tomorrow. Sao Paulo I guess announced a 5 day holiday to get people to stay home that it is that bad. Two health ministers have left the federal gov. one after the other. I don't see numbers slowing down there. I see India maybe faring a bit better, Brazil just seems like a place with much less order in general. Also I've met a lot of Indian doctors and engineers, they will figure something out. From Brazil I've just met guys that like to dance, party, enjoy simple pleasures, not a lot of serious doctor or engineer types.

I keep mentioning them because in ways like China all the Brazilian slums like wet markets and crazy jungle bats like pangolins & panda bears offer room for mutation if they end up having millions of cases which is almost in stone... somewhere like Sweden would not have the same issues if it was overrun.

Imagine if the virus gave women blonde hair and bigger breasts though? Would there be an outcry or world peace?
I'm pretty sure it is part of Brazil strategy to let the "virus" loose. There is a huge part of population that is extremely poor which is involved in criminal activities and they generally live in slums that occupy vast swaths of land that have great views.
Idon't think Bolsonaro or Brazil will get sad if these people die or have to go to hospitals so that government can more easily "seize" their morros.
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
From what I've heard, most governors in Brazil are trying to do lockdowns (to the extent that it's possible in their condition, given the favelas and all that), while Bolsonaro is a "just a flu" guy and fighting them on the federal level. Any truth to this?
 

EvanWilson

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Does anyone know what second wave means? Does that mean a stronger mutation happens, weather changes, or people congregate more closely? Is second wave just a catch all term for "it spread more later in time for any possible number of reasons combine in a way we don't really know how"?
Second Wave:
If you look at the history of other pandemic, there is usually another round of infections. It is believed that this second wave is a result of changes (mutations) in the original virus. In the case of the Spanish Flu of 1918, the first wave was in the Spring 1918. Then during the summer it looked like the pandemic was over BUT it returned in the fall and was much worse than the first wave. There was also a third wave in the spring 1919.

Has chart showing the three waves of the Spanish Flu of 1918:
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
President Trump is getting good medical advice, taking zinc with his hydroxychloroquine.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he plans to stop taking hydroxychloroquine “in a day or two.”

Trump took the drug as a way to prevent the disease caused by the coronavirus despite scientist’s concerns.

"I think the regimen finishes in a day or two. I think it's in two days," Trump told reporters during a meeting with the governors of Arkansas and Kansas according to The Hill.

The Food and Drug Administration last month cautioned against the use of the medicine outside of a hospital setting or a clinical trial due to risk of heart rhythm problems, citing potential “life threatening” heart problems.

The president has defended his choice, saying the drug “gives you an additional level of safety” and claimed, “many doctors are in favor of it” and that “many frontline workers won’t go there unless they have hydroxy.”

Trump has also been taking a daily dose of zinc and an initial dose of the antibiotic azithromycin.

Dr. Sean Conley, the president’s physician, has not said whether he’d prescribed the drug to Trump or recommended a dosage.

“After numerous discussions he and I had regarding the evidence for and against the use of hydroxychloroquine,” Conley wrote in a memo released by the White House on Monday, “we concluded the potential benefit from treatment outweighed the relative risks.”

“I continue to monitor the myriad studies investigating potential COVID-19 therapies.”

 

Wreckingball

Pelican
From what I've heard, most governors in Brazil are trying to do lockdowns (to the extent that it's possible in their condition, given the favelas and all that), while Bolsonaro is a "just a flu" guy and fighting them on the federal level. Any truth to this?
From what i have been seeing, yes that is correct. I am not sure, but I believe the governors are not from Bolsonaro political party, hence the different decisions
 

RexImperator

Crow
Gold Member
With regard to the concerns summarized by Chris Martenson in his Youtube videos about the possibility of a lab origin, a research paper is coming out that gives more weight to his suspicions:

A highlight:
...Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a key adviser to Mr. Trump on the pandemic, has dismissed any suggestion that the virus came from a Chinese laboratory.

“If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats and what’s out there now, [the scientific evidence] is very, very strongly leaning toward this could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated,” he told National Geographic this month.

“Everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that [this virus] evolved in nature and then jumped species.”


The forthcoming study, however, concludes that the binding energy of the virus’ “spike” protein — the crownlike protrusions surrounding the surface of the round microbe — is highest for humans and greater than all other species tested, including bats, which have been widely targeted as the likely original source.

“This indicates that SARS-CoV-2 is a highly adapted human pathogen,” the Australian report said.

The team analyzed spike protein binding of the virus on a range of other animals, including pangolins, civets, mice, hamsters, cats, dogs, snakes, horses, tigers and cows.

“Overall, the data indicates that SARS-CoV-2 is uniquely adapted to infect humans, raising important questions as to whether it arose in nature by a rare chance event or whether its origins might lie elsewhere,” the report said.

Jonathan J. Couey, a research assistant professor of neurobiology at the University of Pittsburgh, said he agrees with the Australian findings.

“Understanding the exact origin of this virus is vital to ensure that all scientific and medical data are interpreted correctly by policymakers and health care professionals alike,” Mr. Couey said.

However, he said, debate on the laboratory origin of the virus has been stymied by scientists opposed to even considering the possibility.

“Several scientists with obvious conflicts of interest have been permitted to go on the record denying that it would be possible to generate such a virus in a laboratory and stating specifically that the sequence of SARS-CoV-2 would never have been chosen by any ‘gene jockey,’” he said in an email.

“Both of these denials are not genuine scientific rebuttals, but rather semantic pseudo-denials formulated by some of those most closely tied to the funding of these [gain of function] research lines.”

“Gain-of-function research” is laboratory work to increase the ability of pathogens to cause disease. It is carried out to study pandemics and how to respond to them.
...
 

Papaya

Crow
Gold Member
With regard to the concerns summarized by Chris Martenson in his Youtube videos about the possibility of a lab origin, a research paper is coming out that gives more weight to his suspicions:

A highlight:
Under international law the penalty for Crimes Against Humanity or Genocide is up to 30 years in prison. If I was anyone that could conclusively tie Fauci and /or any of the rest involved in the NC State / John Hopkins / CIA / Wuhan Lab "gain of function" funding and research...Id be seriously scared right now

#GainOfFunctionWitnessesDidNotKillThemselves
 

Papaya

Crow
Gold Member
No, therapy is still individual apart from that. No HCQ from what I’ve seen so far. No Remdesivir either.

As for when to call medical services: I’d say that if you have breathing problems walking between your bed and toilet, or going up a short stair, you need to be evaluated by a doc or nurse; especially having your blood saturation taken. Seen a few cases where people have been sitting in chairs next to their bathrooms at home (so as to minimize movement), due to extreme tiredness and and probable hypoxia. They usually do this for a few days before calling an ambulance, and when they get to us they’re already on several liters of oxygen.
@Vienna Hows it going? Anything new to update? Any new info on what they are treating Covid patients with there?
 

Roosh

Cardinal
Anthony Fauci warns of 'irreparable damage' if lockdowns are kept in place for too long
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious-disease expert, said on Friday that extended lockdowns could cause "irreparable" harm and worse health outcomes.

"We can't stay locked down for such a considerable period of time that you might do irreparable damage and have unintended consequences, including consequences for health," Fauci said in a CNBC interview.

Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the measures were necessary early on to curb the explosive spread of the coronavirus. But he supported states taking cautious steps to restore normality and lift stay-at-home orders.

"Now is the time, depending upon where you are and what your situation is, is to begin seriously looking at reopening the economy, reopening the country to try and get back to some degree of normal," he said.
Is he just trying to get in front of the resistance? Or maybe Trump told him to get in line or he's not? Strange about face.
 

Troller

Woodpecker
Source:

"A huge study on chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine was conducted with 96,000 patients in 671 hospitals:

❌ Risk of death increased from 33% to 45%
❌ Risk increased by 2.3 to 5 times the risk of serious cardiac arrhythmia.

It's one thing not to have a benefit, but this study shows that it makes the situation worse, "said Eric Topol, cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute." If there was any hope for this drug, he is dead".
All patients received doses of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) or chloroquine (CQ) within 48 hours of diagnosis of COVID-19 after hospitalization. No argument of the style "we treated them too late" possible.
David Maron, director of preventive cardiology at Stanford University School of Medicine, said that "these results give absolutely no reason to be optimistic about the usefulness of this drug in prevention or treatment COVID-19 ".
Almost 15,000 of the 96,000 patients analyzed were treated with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine alone or in combination with a type of antibiotic known as macrolides, such as azithromycin, within 48 hours of their diagnosis.
For people who received hydroxychloroquine, there was a 34% increased risk of mortality and 137% increased risk of serious cardiac arrhythmia. For people receiving hydroxychloroquine + antibiotic, there was a 45% increase in the risk of mortality and a 411% increase in the risk of severe cardiac arrhythmia.
People who received chloroquine had a 37% increased risk of death and 256% increased risk of serious cardiac arrhythmias. For those taking chloroquine and an antibiotic, there was a 37% increased risk of death and 301% of serious cardiac arrhythmias.
For those who would like to dispute these figures, they come from 671 different hospitals on all continents.
IN CONCLUSION: Do NOT take HCQ or CQ! There is no reason to believe that it works and there are many reasons to believe that it makes things worse.


Speaking of the principal concerned, here is the order of the declarations, if ever that interests people.

January: No reason to worry about 3 Chinese people dying on the other side of the world.
February: It will kill fewer people than scooter accidents.
March: End of the game, Chloroquine will defeat COVID-19 in one week.
April: The virus will die with heat.
May: Okay, the heat doesn't seem to help, but there will never be a second wave, it's a classic pattern.

Bonus:

- "I am the world expert N ° 1 so good eh ... should listen to those who know what they are talking about."
- "Confining never worked." (when this is the only thing that worked with COVID-19).
- "You know the epidemics disappear on their own and nobody really knows why".

It would be welcome if people who worship him calm down, because for now he has stuck on absolutely everything he has said, so there is no reason to take him seriously when he says there will be no second wave (which seems obvious).

Dr Andrea Ammon, director of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), said: "The virus is around us, it circulates much more than in January and February ... I don't want to do an apocalyptic drawing but I think we have to be realistic. Now is not the time to relax completely. "
She said that the immunity of populations in Europe was "not so exciting" and that it was between 2 and 14%, leaving "85 to 90% of the population vulnerable".

Strong concerns about India in an internal WHO report. Experts are likely to be dispatched to reinforce the country, unable to stop the spread of the epidemic.

If you think the game is over and the epidemic is over, think for a moment: at the start of the year, there were a few thousand infected, 5 months later, we reached 6 million! (~ 5.3 officially but according to the WHO we are rather at 6.5).
That's only 0.068% of the world population affected! Without revolutionary treatment to eradicate the disease definitively and quickly, the margin of progression is still very important ...
Sorry for all those who don't like to hear what I'm talking about

Beware of the false sense of security, we are only at the beginning of this pandemic. The projections, figures and information on which I base myself are the same that enabled me in January to warn that we were headed straight for a pandemic when the rest of the world spoke of influenza.

Small evolutionary explanation of a virus.
A virus, like any biological entity, is subject to natural selection.
When you confine, all of the less contagious strains of the virus disappear. Then it's hot, so all the strains most sensitive to heat disappear. You clean more, so all the strains least resistant to good hygiene disappear.
You see a drastic drop in the number of infected, since the measures are effective.
Then, you deconfine ... and there, the problem is that you put back into circulation the most virulent strains of the virus.
The inertia is greater than at the start, of course, the 2nd wave always takes longer to start than the first. However, when it starts, it is more difficult to contain ...
For those who wonder why the cases are "struggling to come back" when the measures soften, be careful not to speak too early.
There is a 95% chance that a 2nd wave will arrive ... so yes, there is a 5% chance that the virus will magically disappear, but no need to take it for granted.
"
 

Travesty

Crow
Gold Member
Troller your thoughts in someways point to a herd immunity strategy from the beginning being best don't they? Because if a second wave is a near guaranteed event, and only the strongest most virulent strains survive through the first round of lockdowns and the first summer, you are essentially making the strongest virus strain the last man standing then letting him off the leash when first lockdowns unlift and weather gets colder and drier.

Whereas if you let all the strains go apeshit at once the biggest baddass strain is only a small % of the infections across the population.

Time may tell with Sweden I guess. But even they aren't 100% herd immunity with distancing. UK was until they cried uncle.

I know the Taiwan ultra lockdown early and track and trace, wait for vaccine is probably theoretically best, but vast majority of countries I think are past the point of no return.
 

Papaya

Crow
Gold Member
Here's the source

They aggregated a bunch of data from a bunch of sources without knowing what controls or quality controls were in place at the sources.

This is not science. This is less than worthless and actually malicious propaganda held out as science.

Only partisan publications are picking it up


Research in context
Evidence before this study
We searched MEDLINE (via PubMed) for articles published up to April 21, 2020
, using the key words “novel coronavirus”, “2019-nCoV”, “COVID-19”, “SARS-CoV-2”, “therapy”, “hydroxychloroquine”, “chloroquine”, and “macrolide”. Moreover, we screened preprint servers, such as Medrxiv, for relevant articles and consulted the web pages of organisations such as the US National Institutes of Health and WHO. Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine (used with or without a macrolide) are widely advocated for treatment of COVID-19 based on in-vitro evidence of an antiviral effect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Their use is based on small uncontrolled studies and in the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials. Concerns have been raised that these drugs or their combination with macrolides could result in electrical instability and predispose patients to ventricular arrhythmias. Whether these drugs improve outcomes or are associated with harm in COVID-19 remains unknown.
Added value of this study
In the absence of reported randomised trials,
there is an urgent need to evaluate real-world evidence related to outcomes with the use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine (used with or without macrolides) in COVID-19. Using an international, observational registry across six continents, we assessed 96 032 patients with COVID-19, of whom 14 888 were treated with hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine, or their combination with a macrolide. After controlling for age, sex, race or ethnicity, underlying comorbidities, and disease severity at baseline, the use of all four regimens was associated with an increased hazard for de-novo ventricular arrythmia and death in hospital. This study provides real-world evidence on the use of these therapeutic regimens by including a large number of patients from across the world. Thus, to our knowledge, these findings provide the most comprehensive evidence of the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine (with or without a macrolide) for treatment of COVID-19.
Implications of all the available evidence
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Here's the source

They aggregated a bunch of data from a bunch of sources without knowing what controls or quality controls were in place at the sources.

This is not science. This is less than worthless and actually malicious propaganda held out as science.

Only partisan publications are picking it up
Yes, that "study" is laughable on numerous levels. I will discuss just one. There were four treatment groups, but not a single one with zinc! The entire purpose of providing hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine to patients is to facilitate the absorption of zinc into cells, which stops viral replication.

Patients who received one of the treatments of interest within 48 h of diagnosis were included in one of four treatment groups (chloroquine alone, chloroquine with a macrolide, hydroxychloroquine alone, or hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide), and patients who received none of these treatments formed the control group.
It is sad, but not unexpected in a sociopathic society, that this has become an issue of politics and greed instead of actually trying to save lives.

And what happened to all the IV Vitamin C studies begun months ago in China ? Vitamin C must have worked. If it had not worked, the media would be filled with stories about its failure.
 
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Vienna

Kingfisher
Gold Member
@Vienna Hows it going? Anything new to update? Any new info on what they are treating Covid patients with there?
The number of patients requiring ICU care is down from 14 two weeks ago to 5 this week which is hopeful (with most having survived). The number of patients requiring ’basic’ hospital care has increased though, and we’re pretty much at full capacity (around 50 dedicated Covid beds split on 2 wards). A new wing is opening which will add 8 beds to that capacity.

Nothing new on treatment from what I’ve heard or seen. Same treatment protocols as my last update.

14 colleagues (2 of which I worked closely with last week) have tested positive this week... I’m just waiting for that first cough :sneaky:
 
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