The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Correlation is not causation. As a doctor, that's one of the first fallacies you learned in undergrad science courses. Why are you using it to shame the forum's opinions?
On possible non-COVID19 explanation for the increase in deaths is that seriously ill people are often too scared to visit a hospital. Moreover, telephone calls to suicide hotlines are up about 800%.
The global coronavirus pandemic killed more people than those inflicted with COVID-19, because those sick of other ailments were "so scared" they avoided healthcare and ultimately died without treatment, according to Dr. Mehmet Oz.

"For March, April and May we have 122,000 more deaths then typical [in the United States]," Dr. Oz told host John Catsimatidis on Sunday's "The Cats Roundtable" on WABC 770 AM, adding, "a lot of these deaths were not people who had COVID-19 necessarily, but they died because of the pandemic.

"There are secondary effects, changes in population behavior, when you lock down a country. And when people are so scared that they have an aversion to the healthcare system, then they won't go to the hospital when they're having chest pain. And, therefore, the heart attack that takes their life will be allowed to happen.

"They'll suffer from conditions that could've been treated in a timely fashion. But by the time we get to them, it's too late."
 
Correlation is not causation. As a doctor, that's one of the first fallacies you learned in undergrad science courses. Why are you using it to shame the forum's opinions?
Correlation is not equal to causation, no, but when deaths in a certain city are three times higher than expected (as it was in NYC) over a given time frame isn't that a good reason to believe that something is amiss? Perhaps it's because general consensus around here seems to have shifted to the point where many people seem to think that COVID is a hoax. And to put it bluntly, it's pretty frustrating to see people denying things outright that you've seen with your own two eyes. And I wouldn't doubt that a little bit of the number of NYC deaths being so high is due to people not seeking treatment for that other reasons, but certainly not all of it (or even most of it).

I've maintained from the very beginning, or at least since I started seeing cases that to think something along the lines of "COVID is bad, but these measures we're taking to counter it are worse," is a reasonable position that one could take on the issue (regardless of whether or not it is true). But to say it's not real or it's not dangerous is not a position that is based on anything corresponding to reality.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
I've maintained from the very beginning, or at least since I started seeing cases that to think something along the lines of "COVID is bad, but these measures we're taking to counter it are worse," is a reasonable position that one could take on the issue (regardless of whether or not it is true). But to say it's not real or it's not dangerous is not a position that is based on anything corresponding to reality.
Personally, I follow wherever the evidence leads. Initially, I saw videos of people falling to the ground and having seizures on the streets of China. Then I saw patients dying in hospital hallways in Italy from a shortage of ICU beds and ventilators. I bought my mother three pounds of vitamin C and a nebulizer (to keep the virus from spreading into her lungs). I took the coronavirus very seriously. Then the alleged giant ventilator shortage in the U.S. turned into a giant nothing-burger. In fact, the use of ventilators seemed to make health outcomes worse.

I do not know a single person who died from COVID-19. I do not know a single person who knows someone who died from COVID-19. Until a few weeks ago, I did not know anyone who contracted COVID-19. Since then, someone I know did have both her parents hospitalized with COVID-19. One of them came close to dying, but recovered.

So, my view of COVID-19 has changed dramatically over the past few months, based on all the evidence -- and the fact that I likely had COVID-19 and that it was so mild. Since the beginning of the year, twice I have had overnight fevers with mild flu-like symptoms that lasted only four days. The symptoms were far milder than flu symptoms (which usually last 7-10 days). Of course, I took heavy amounts of vitamin C and other natural antivirals.

So, on a scale of 1-10, with a cold being a 1, the flu being a 2, and Ebola being a 10, I consider COVID-19 a 3 or 4. I originally thought that it could have been a 6-8 -- or even akin to airborne AIDS -- which is how I initially prepared. Now, I would not even wear a mask if it was not required.

This virus is obviously far less lethal than was presumed in January through March, but discounting it as an equivalent of the flu is also wrong. People have died, are dying, and will continue to die. We must simply accept that fact, adapt to it, learn the new rules, and get busy living our lives. We should protect the elderly and people with comorbidities and they must also take personal responsibility and protect themselves, but the rest of us should get on with our lives. Discussing infection rates, instead of mortality rates, is nonsensical. It is a contrived media ruse.
 
I do not know a single person who died from COVID-19. I do not know a single person who knows someone who died from COVID-19. Until a few weeks ago, I did not know anyone who contracted COVID-19. Since then, someone I know did have both her parents hospitalized with COVID-19. One of them came close to dying, but recovered.
To echo: the news won't stop talking about my state but I know no one who's gotten it, let alone died of it. My wife finally knows one person this week who has it, a person who works at her large organization. This person is continuing to work from home and is symptom-free.
 
Correlation is not equal to causation, no, but when deaths in a certain city are three times higher than expected (as it was in NYC) over a given time frame isn't that a good reason to believe that something is amiss? Perhaps it's because general consensus around here seems to have shifted to the point where many people seem to think that COVID is a hoax. And to put it bluntly, it's pretty frustrating to see people denying things outright that you've seen with your own two eyes. And I wouldn't doubt that a little bit of the number of NYC deaths being so high is due to people not seeking treatment for that other reasons, but certainly not all of it (or even most of it).

I've maintained from the very beginning, or at least since I started seeing cases that to think something along the lines of "COVID is bad, but these measures we're taking to counter it are worse," is a reasonable position that one could take on the issue (regardless of whether or not it is true). But to say it's not real or it's not dangerous is not a position that is based on anything corresponding to reality.
Mmmm.... NYC death increased 6x in April compare to the last 20 years, while coronavirus diagnosis sky rocketed, ICU admission went up 5x mostly with respiratory failure. Correlation not causation?


Not every decision is based on prospective, double blinded, randomized trail.

Police reported 3 new gangs in my neighborhood. 3 little girls got shot in the play ground. Murder rate went up. Just correlation doesn't mean my neighborhood is getting more dangerous. No way I am going to move my family out of this beloved neighborhood.
 
To echo: the news won't stop talking about my state but I know no one who's gotten it, let alone died of it. My wife finally knows one person this week who has it, a person who works at her large organization. This person is continuing to work from home and is symptom-free.
I finally, after many months, know someone who got it too: My wife's 81-year-old, morbidly obese grandmother. She was recently hospitalized for long-standing heart issues, and while there, was tested for coronavirus. She tested positive, and reported in our last conversation that she had a "slight tickle" in her throat for a couple of days.
 

Mojambo

Pigeon
Correlation is not equal to causation, no, but when deaths in a certain city are three times higher than expected (as it was in NYC) over a given time frame isn't that a good reason to believe that something is amiss? Perhaps it's because general consensus around here seems to have shifted to the point where many people seem to think that COVID is a hoax. And to put it bluntly, it's pretty frustrating to see people denying things outright that you've seen with your own two eyes. And I wouldn't doubt that a little bit of the number of NYC deaths being so high is due to people not seeking treatment for that other reasons, but certainly not all of it (or even most of it).

I've maintained from the very beginning, or at least since I started seeing cases that to think something along the lines of "COVID is bad, but these measures we're taking to counter it are worse," is a reasonable position that one could take on the issue (regardless of whether or not it is true). But to say it's not real or it's not dangerous is not a position that is based on anything corresponding to reality.
Something is amiss. But Roosh is right. You can't conclude that COVID caused the uptick. Why is this increase in year-to-year deaths so high in only NYC and a handful of other isolated places?

Is it possible that NYC had a worse mutation of the virus? I think it's equally possible that the standards for treatment were bad for anyone showing symptoms in NYC compared to elsewhere, causing the major uptick in deaths: https://www.bitchute.com/video/gDnQVKekJLpT/

A lot of ventilators were brought to NYC and it is likely they were used liberally. It is now known that the majority of those put on vents end up dying. Perhaps if there are some charts out there that can map ventilator usage versus year-to-year death ratios that might help paint a better picture of what's going on.
 
Correlation does not equal causation

The majority of those put on vents end up dying

Do you know hundreds of thousands of patients get put on the ventilator for surgery and 99.99% of them wake up fine a few hours later? Most patients under go general anesthesia are also on the ventilator.

If you have a COVID or non COVID patient that come into the hospital with severe respiratory distress, breathing at 50 breath a minute, oxygen saturation in the 50%, blue lips, mental confusion from hypoxia. After putting the patient on a oxygen face mask or and putting him prone and the patient is not improving, what are the options:

A - Do nothing - the patient dies from lack of oxygen in minutes or hours

B - Do nothing hope the patient will turn around in the next few minutes or hours by himself.

- very small percentage may turn a round
- mostly will ended up in cardiorespiratory arrest, code blue with emergent intubation (put on the ventilator), chest compression, in a messy uncontrolled situation where there is a high risk of contamination and infection of the healthcare staff and high risk of anoxic brain damage to the patient.

C - High flow nasal cannula or Bi-PAP - a more favored option now, but initially frowned upon because it's an open system where patients continue to spray virus into the room. But, many still won't hold up with just NC or Bi-PAP.

D - ECMO - Extra corporal membrane oxygenator. Good luck with that. There's maybe 20-30 ECMO machines in any given city. If your city get a surge, you have zero chance of being place on the ECMO. While the COVID cases were coming in slow and steady, they really try to prioritize young patients with good chance of recovery on ECMO.

E - Intubate and place on the ventilator

Without ventilator 98% of these patients will die. While on the ventilator, yes 70-90% of these patients still die, but you save 8-28% of these patients.

It's crazy how the media throw out this number that majority of people of the vent dies and now people think ventilator kills people.

Yes, ventilator does damage the lung in the long run, but your immediate options are B, C, D and E or A - imminent death

Next time you get lung injury from smoke inhalation, acute aspiration, viral congestive heart failure, asthma attack, or covid and get admitted to the hospital. While you are gasping for air and minutes from dying, please tell the doctor that you read on TMZ that ventilator kills people and please do nothing, give me some vitamin C and I will be ok.
 

Roosh

Cardinal
Correlation is not equal to causation, no, but when deaths in a certain city are three times higher than expected (as it was in NYC) over a given time frame isn't that a good reason to believe that something is amiss? Perhaps it's because general consensus around here seems to have shifted to the point where many people seem to think that COVID is a hoax. And to put it bluntly, it's pretty frustrating to see people denying things outright that you've seen with your own two eyes. And I wouldn't doubt that a little bit of the number of NYC deaths being so high is due to people not seeking treatment for that other reasons, but certainly not all of it (or even most of it).

I've maintained from the very beginning, or at least since I started seeing cases that to think something along the lines of "COVID is bad, but these measures we're taking to counter it are worse," is a reasonable position that one could take on the issue (regardless of whether or not it is true). But to say it's not real or it's not dangerous is not a position that is based on anything corresponding to reality.
You're a fallacy machine. I didn't say it was a hoax or that it's not real. You are unable to deal with the facts at hand, and respond in an emotional manner. Personally, I wouldn't want a doctor who can't keep his cool on an internet forum, assuming you really are a doctor, of course.
 

Roosh

Cardinal
Mmmm.... NYC death increased 6x in April compare to the last 20 years, while coronavirus diagnosis sky rocketed, ICU admission went up 5x mostly with respiratory failure. Correlation not causation?
Now do other cities. NYC is not the United States. The city is responsible for at least ~25% of deaths in the entire country. No other city are close. There are factors specific to NYC that is causing 6x deaths that is not happening anywhere else that can't solely be attributed to coronavirus. NYC is not the only dense city in the nation.
 

Roosh

Cardinal
Mmmm.... NYC death increased 6x in April compare to the last 20 years, while coronavirus diagnosis sky rocketed, ICU admission went up 5x mostly with respiratory failure. Correlation not causation?


Not every decision is based on prospective, double blinded, randomized trail.

Police reported 3 new gangs in my neighborhood. 3 little girls got shot in the play ground. Murder rate went up. Just correlation doesn't mean my neighborhood is getting more dangerous. No way I am going to move my family out of this beloved neighborhood.
A strong correlation is still a correlation.
 
Infectious diseases don't spread randomly. I'm glad that a lot of you don't know anyone with a COVID infection, or know someone who only had mild symptoms, but that doesn't mean everyone was similarly lucky. It is known that NYC had one of the highest amount of COVID cases and COVID deaths anywhere in the world, so it's not like it's some random American city. It's by far the most densely populated American city, has some of the highest reliance on public transportation, and is among the highest amount of foreign-born population. There's a number of reasons why NYC may have been hit harder.

And I mentioned this extensively a while back, although Excalibur seems to have been quicker to reply (and is completely on point as well), but those patients placed on ventilators are also not random selected among COVID patients but only those who are the sickest and already at the highest risk of dying. Intubating someone and connecting them to a ventilator includes putting a plastic tube down a person's throat, between their vocal cords, and into their windpipe (which is done most often by direct visualization). It has got to be about the highest risk procedure a healthcare provider can do in terms of exposing themselves to COVID, and one not done lightly.

And Roosh, I never said that you personally claimed it was a hoax, but "many people seem to think that COVID is a hoax," or are at least minimizing it's significance. I'm not sure exactly what about my prior post you think is emotional, and I can certainly understand a bit of skepticism towards anyone online claiming they are a doctor, but I'm also not going to dox myself, so it is what it is I guess.
 

Mojambo

Pigeon
Correlation does not equal causation

The majority of those put on vents end up dying

Do you know hundreds of thousands of patients get put on the ventilator for surgery and 99.99% of them wake up fine a few hours later? Most patients under go general anesthesia are also on the ventilator.

If you have a COVID or non COVID patient that come into the hospital with severe respiratory distress, breathing at 50 breath a minute, oxygen saturation in the 50%, blue lips, mental confusion from hypoxia. After putting the patient on a oxygen face mask or and putting him prone and the patient is not improving, what are the options:

A - Do nothing - the patient dies from lack of oxygen in minutes or hours

B - Do nothing hope the patient will turn around in the next few minutes or hours by himself.

- very small percentage may turn a round
- mostly will ended up in cardiorespiratory arrest, code blue with emergent intubation (put on the ventilator), chest compression, in a messy uncontrolled situation where there is a high risk of contamination and infection of the healthcare staff and high risk of anoxic brain damage to the patient.

C - High flow nasal cannula or Bi-PAP - a more favored option now, but initially frowned upon because it's an open system where patients continue to spray virus into the room. But, many still won't hold up with just NC or Bi-PAP.

D - ECMO - Extra corporal membrane oxygenator. Good luck with that. There's maybe 20-30 ECMO machines in any given city. If your city get a surge, you have zero chance of being place on the ECMO. While the COVID cases were coming in slow and steady, they really try to prioritize young patients with good chance of recovery on ECMO.

E - Intubate and place on the ventilator

Without ventilator 98% of these patients will die. While on the ventilator, yes 70-90% of these patients still die, but you save 8-28% of these patients.

It's crazy how the media throw out this number that majority of people of the vent dies and now people think ventilator kills people.

Yes, ventilator does damage the lung in the long run, but your immediate options are B, C, D and E or A - imminent death

Next time you get lung injury from smoke inhalation, acute aspiration, viral congestive heart failure, asthma attack, or covid and get admitted to the hospital. While you are gasping for air and minutes from dying, please tell the doctor that you read on TMZ that ventilator kills people and please do nothing, give me some vitamin C and I will be ok.
I'm not disagreeing that ventilators can help those in need of it, raising probability of survival to something higher, prior to COVID as you've written.

However, people that are not in imminent danger, if put on a ventilator, appear to succumb to such "over"-treatments, which I am only suggesting as a possibility for the geographically isolated uptick of year-to-year deaths in NYC.

Since there are a lot of perverse incentives to diagnose COVID, and thus give what at the time was considered the de facto treatment for COVID, perhaps the combination of vents, the abundance of untrained medical staff trying to handle the added inflows, etc. could have contributed more to the NYC deaths than COVID itself.

More needs to be studied before any conclusions on causation can be made. It is not clear cut (hence the giant "criticisms" thread) to what degree COVID is deadly and to what degree gross incompetence is deadly.

No need for the personal attack too ("while you are gasping for air and minutes from dying"). When a vent is required, it should be used and I personally wouldn't object to its usage if it's a tried and tested method for treating conditions better understood than COVID.
 
The people dropping on deck and flopping like fish (with blood usually pouring out from the nostrils) were dying from acute decompression sickness, which can be brought on very quickly. You regular MD's like doubting thomas (assuming) aren't trained to deal with a consistent lineup of patients who suffer from the bends and hypoxia. Lack of oxygen to the brain is always overlooked and immediately assumed to be caused by something (((viral))) in the lungs and not what is happening to the oxygen molecules around the organism. This is happening around the world because of the high frequency of the new technology, not just 5G. Higher rates of confusion, distress, animal navigation errors, and in some places so polluted like China, human death.

The rest of this, as I thought from the beginning, is a nothingburger, and a huge fearmongering experiment. If I shot my goo from fear I'd be in ecstasy now, which I know these subversive self-appointed "elites" are doing. Fear vampires.
 

Orson

Kingfisher
Mmmm.... NYC death increased 6x in April compare to the last 20 years, while coronavirus diagnosis sky rocketed, ICU admission went up 5x mostly with respiratory failure. Correlation not causation?


Not every decision is based on prospective, double blinded, randomized trail.

Police reported 3 new gangs in my neighborhood. 3 little girls got shot in the play ground. Murder rate went up. Just correlation doesn't mean my neighborhood is getting more dangerous. No way I am going to move my family out of this beloved neighborhood.
Id reconsider. It’s going to get worse for years because your government refuses to accept that their policies are wrong. It’s just that simple. Denial ain’t a party in Egypt.
 

Max Roscoe

Woodpecker
I do not know a single person who died from COVID-19. I do not know a single person who knows someone who died from COVID-19. Until a few weeks ago, I did not know anyone who contracted COVID-19. Since then, someone I know did have both her parents hospitalized with COVID-19. One of them came close to dying, but recovered.

So, my view of COVID-19 has changed dramatically over the past few months, based on all the evidence -- and the fact that I likely had COVID-19 and that it was so mild. Since the beginning of the year, twice I have had overnight fevers with mild flu-like symptoms that lasted only four days. The symptoms were far milder than flu symptoms (which usually last 7-10 days). Of course, I took heavy amounts of vitamin C and other natural antivirals.
I also had flu-like symptoms which lasted much shorter than they typically do. I felt awful for basically 2 days at the beginning of the year. I don't care enough to take a test, but it seems I probably had the covid. I would rank it as better than any flu I've ever had.

I don't understand why someone would go to the hospital for COVID-19. There is no medical treatment for a viral infection. I thought this was common knowledge. If you aren't aware, check any medical source. The Mayo Clinic says if you have a viral infection, the treatments include drinking fluids, rest, using a humidifier, and you could take antihistamines or pain relievers but they won't shorten the infection, only maybe make you feel a little better.

If you've ever been to the doctor as a kid, he always says if you have a bacterial infection, he can prescribe an antibiotic, but if you have a virus, then go home and drink some juice and go to bed early, but there is nothing he can do. I guess maybe people aren't smart enough to realize that the coronavirus is a virus. Or maybe they are just trusting in the magic of the lab coat. But there is nothing these doctors can do for coronavirus or any other virus that you can't do at home. So if you have a viral infection, doctors can't help you, but they can certainly hurt you.

I'll remind everyone that hospital "accidental deaths" are the #3 leading cause of death in America. Meaning if you don't have the #1 (heart attack) or #2 (cancer) you should really think twice about checking in to a hospital, as they kill over 250,000 people every year through medical errors. Do you want to risk those odds so they can give you regular doses of boxed sweetened juice and put a dehumidifier in your room for $2,000 a day? Medical errors don't even count things like dying on a ventilator, which is what happens to 80%+ of people put on a ventilator.

 

infowarrior1

Hummingbird
Correlation is not equal to causation, no, but when deaths in a certain city are three times higher than expected (as it was in NYC) over a given time frame isn't that a good reason to believe that something is amiss? Perhaps it's because general consensus around here seems to have shifted to the point where many people seem to think that COVID is a hoax. And to put it bluntly, it's pretty frustrating to see people denying things outright that you've seen with your own two eyes. And I wouldn't doubt that a little bit of the number of NYC deaths being so high is due to people not seeking treatment for that other reasons, but certainly not all of it (or even most of it).

I've maintained from the very beginning, or at least since I started seeing cases that to think something along the lines of "COVID is bad, but these measures we're taking to counter it are worse," is a reasonable position that one could take on the issue (regardless of whether or not it is true). But to say it's not real or it's not dangerous is not a position that is based on anything corresponding to reality.
Better safe than sorry. One gets one chance at life. A little paranoia is better than blissful ignorance.
 

Easy_C

Crow
I have family in the medical profession and it’s a long summary but they’re also telling me the data indicates that the virus is becoming less lethal over time, AND that an RNA virus doing so is to be expected. They usually get better and not worse which is also consistent with how those of us who got it in January or February got knocked on our asses whole those who got it later did pretty well.
 

Hillbilly

Pigeon
I have family in the medical profession and it’s a long summary but they’re also telling me the data indicates that the virus is becoming less lethal over time, AND that an RNA virus doing so is to be expected. They usually get better and not worse which is also consistent with how those of us who got it in January or February got knocked on our asses whole those who got it later did pretty well.
Based on the worldometers charts, I've been getting the impression the virus is losing its potency. I got tested yesterday since I think I might have it, and I'm glad I didn't catch it in February, March, or April.
 
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