The Libyan Conflict Thread

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
This thread is for updates about and analysis of the situation in Lybia

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GNA and their main backer Turkey are getting ready for the assault on Sirte


Egyptian parlement has postponed the vote to mandate the Army's intervention Libya

My gut feeling is that they will go in. The alternative is that the Turks/ GNA would steamroll the LNA. A Muslim Brotherhood friendly state on their Western border is the last thing al Sisi (and his financial backers Saudi Arabia/UAE) want




It will also be interesting to see where the US stands. The Tobruk based government/ LNA is led by Khalifa Hafter, a US citizen and known CIA asset

The EU member states are split, as always. Italy supports the Turkish coalition while France and Greece support Haftar
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
A predictable reality, really

The most powerful country on this earth, by any measure, is trying to pull the strings in every other country and theater

By extension the CIA/ Deep State is involved too

The remarkable part is that the US' power projections in the Middle East seems to have lost impact. They lost in Syria. Turkey is going rogue. Iran continues to challenge the US. Hezbollah is stronger than ever. The Houthis aren't going anywhere despite the murderous blockade. Qatar has left the US sphere of influence and turned to Iran

And now Libya. Turkey is going right against US/Deep State/Saudi interests, unless there is some detail I am missing (double play?) . They have pushed back the LNA from Tripoli, liberated the coast up till Tunisia (west) and Sirte (east) and taken the al Wattiyah military base
 
I was under the assumption that Russia is supporting LNA (now claimed to be asset of CIA), and now there isn't really preferable side-of the two: LNA and GNA: am I getting this correctly?

I thought Turkey and Saudi are on the same page?
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
Russia is indeed supporting the LNA, mostly through its favorite PMC Wagner Group

Haftar, who lived in the US for decades and is a US citizen, only returned to Libya after Gaddafi was regime-changed by a US-France-Gulf States coalition

Rumours that he was CIA trained are very persistent. I can't say that with 100 percent certainty though. Fact is that he fell out with Ghadaffi in the 80s after the Chadian- Libyan War, plotted a coup and was eventually rescued by the CIA and was repatriated to the States

How all of this is ought to make sense in 2020 I can't tell you, its above my level of knowledge. Affairs in the Mid East tend to have 10 different layers of depth and us foreigners only see 2 or 3 of them

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Turkey and Saudi Arabia are not on the same page. Turkey supports Muslim Brotherhood friendly organisations which the Saudi Monarchy views as a lethal threat (the Brotherhood is heavily anti-monarchical)
 
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911

Peacock
Gold Member
Thanks for the rundown Aguila, it's such a complex situation there. Turkey/Erdogan projecting military power across the Mediterranean is a weird new development. I agree with your read of this being a symptom of the decline of American/neocon power projection in the region.

One foreign power that's been conspicuously absent from this battle royale is China, but they are heavily invested in Egypt, which is on the path of becoming an economic/industrial tributary of China. They're playing the long game, staying out of the military tussle while placing their pieces on the go board. China has invested $25 billion in Egyptian infrastructure and industrial projects, with a new Suez Canal expansion and multiple local production centers and joint ventures geared towards the African and European markets, as well as plans for a new capital city:


 
Film "Looper"-mostly a dud-was correct on one prediction: we all ought to start learning Chinese!

The rise of China could not have been possible without USA's outsourced globalization in the 80's. History will definitely mark this as the starting point of China's rise, along with profound decline of living standards over time in USA.

Whetever one may think of China, hopefully the world will be more peaceful under China domination alongside with governmental multi-polar world than it was under USA's near absolute hegemony.
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
The Egyptian parlement has approved the mandate to send the military into Libya


Let's see where it goes from here. They might want to prop up Haftar without antagonising Turkey on the battlefield (by relying on big international players like France, the UAE Na Saudi Arabia diplomatically). Kind of like Syria.

If they decide to attack Turkish military assets directly they will be obliterated
 
a few things I cannot fathom here :
1) Why does Italy support the official government ?
2) Why does Macron seem to endorse Haftar?
 

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
a few things I cannot fathom here :
1) Why does Italy support the official government ?
2) Why does Macron seem to endorse Haftar?
Oil and territory most likely but France took its marching orders from (((them))). France having their aircraft carrier involved is of some concern because it was the French who started attacking Libya first when Qaddafi was in charge. The Brits and US got involved a bit later.

Better question is why is the US playing both sides of this. Trump is talking to Erdogan, Macron and others involved. he has a hotline to Putin.

Turkey has its fingers in all sorts of pies and is stirring up trouble with Greece. Turkey flew thousands of cut throats out of Syria and Turkey early this year and late last year. The same murderers who rampaged across Syria before Russia pounded them and trapped them. Ever wonder why we dont hear about Idlib anymore? They're in Libya!

Wagner is the merc arm of the Russian Fed. They have a lot of kit there including air power, armour and AA units. They wont be engaging directly with the GNA and Turkey but they will be involved in guerrilla warfare.

Egypt is going to do whats in its best interests and that is oil and territory.

I am really interested in how this clusterfuck of a proxy conflict will work out in the backdrop of increasingly bad economic hardship, the scamdemic, political turmoil worldwide and so-called allied countries facing each other.

I cant imagine good things coming from Egypt, France, Wagner facing off against US/Turkey backed cut throats and Turkish military.
 
Oil and territory most likely but France took its marching orders from (((them))). France having their aircraft carrier involved is of some concern because it was the French who started attacking Libya first when Qaddafi was in charge. The Brits and US got involved a bit later.

Better question is why is the US playing both sides of this. Trump is talking to Erdogan, Macron and others involved. he has a hotline to Putin.

Turkey has its fingers in all sorts of pies and is stirring up trouble with Greece. Turkey flew thousands of cut throats out of Syria and Turkey early this year and late last year. The same murderers who rampaged across Syria before Russia pounded them and trapped them. Ever wonder why we dont hear about Idlib anymore? They're in Libya!

Wagner is the merc arm of the Russian Fed. They have a lot of kit there including air power, armour and AA units. They wont be engaging directly with the GNA and Turkey but they will be involved in guerrilla warfare.

Egypt is going to do whats in its best interests and that is oil and territory.

I am really interested in how this clusterfuck of a proxy conflict will work out in the backdrop of increasingly bad economic hardship, the scamdemic, political turmoil worldwide and so-called allied countries facing each other.

I cant imagine good things coming from Egypt, France, Wagner facing off against US/Turkey backed cut throats and Turkish military.
thank you. What about Italy ? Lybia was a former colony but I don't see what makes them go to the side of the "official government".
For Gaddafi , you re right , all the Zionist agents in France got involved ( Sarkozy , BHL , etc )
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
I'm beginning to think that it wasn't in the best interests of Libya and the region to remove Gadaffi.
Aah yes, Colonel Gaddafi

Below is a documentary made by France 24 about the battle for Tripoli (2011). Everything you see is tastes fishy, smells fishy and looks fishy

From the NATO airdrop to the background of the fighters. That dude Sam is for sure some sort of English operative

Looking at it from hindsight it is almost cartoonesque as literally on the day of the fall of Tripoli Al Qaida releasees start organizing and taking over


 
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Foolsgo1d

Peacock
thank you. What about Italy ? Lybia was a former colony but I don't see what makes them go to the side of the "official government".
For Gaddafi , you re right , all the Zionist agents in France got involved ( Sarkozy , BHL , etc )
Well, nobody cares about Greece or Italy. Time and time again they posture but they dont do anything, hell Italy stopped migrants but as we know subversive elements put that to the fire and the doors were once again opened.

Turkey knows Greece and Italy wont do shit because they answer to higher powers with a big hammer over their heads.
 

Blade Runner

Woodpecker
I wouldn't be so sure. The time is coming, sooner than later, where Turkey will be at the mercy of being on the wrong side (again) of the next World War. And Greece and Russia will be right there to make sure they don't come back.
 
Well, nobody cares about Greece or Italy. Time and time again they posture but they dont do anything, hell Italy stopped migrants but as we know subversive elements put that to the fire and the doors were once again opened.

Turkey knows Greece and Italy wont do shit because they answer to higher powers with a big hammer over their heads.
True but according to a military source I have Greece has very strong marine. Even Turkey cannot declare war "just like this"
 

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
Deesn't matter if Greece has a good marine presence, Turkish military, economic might and their one track way of thinking will be enough to hit Greece hard.

Anti-ship missiles and a competent navy will dust those boats easily. Dont get me wrong I am no fan of Turkey but Greece needs help in this and it wont come because nobody gives a damn about them.
 

lookslikeit

Woodpecker
Oil and territory most likely but France took its marching orders from (((them))). France having their aircraft carrier involved is of some concern because it was the French who started attacking Libya first when Qaddafi was in charge. The Brits and US got involved a bit later.

Better question is why is the US playing both sides of this. Trump is talking to Erdogan, Macron and others involved. he has a hotline to Putin.

Turkey has its fingers in all sorts of pies and is stirring up trouble with Greece. Turkey flew thousands of cut throats out of Syria and Turkey early this year and late last year. The same murderers who rampaged across Syria before Russia pounded them and trapped them. Ever wonder why we dont hear about Idlib anymore? They're in Libya!

Wagner is the merc arm of the Russian Fed. They have a lot of kit there including air power, armour and AA units. They wont be engaging directly with the GNA and Turkey but they will be involved in guerrilla warfare.

Egypt is going to do whats in its best interests and that is oil and territory.

I am really interested in how this clusterfuck of a proxy conflict will work out in the backdrop of increasingly bad economic hardship, the scamdemic, political turmoil worldwide and so-called allied countries facing each other.

I cant imagine good things coming from Egypt, France, Wagner facing off against US/Turkey backed cut throats and Turkish military.
You are almost spot-on. As someone who lives there: I think the US has figured out that there is nothing to salvage from Libya. There is oil but it's too unstable to make drilling profitable. They are just letting "everyone" fight it out but showing that there is a power vacuum. These smaller countries would not have intervened if the US has decided the next ruler but now that the US has pulled out, everyone wants a piece of the cake.

That's why Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey, all wants to fight. They are heavily financed by the US/IMF, they'll not do something that angers their masters. Which brings my conclusion that the US is officially not supporting anyone.

Maybe it's the US new policy: Let them figure it out.
 
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