The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict thread (Armenia vs Azerbaijan)

[La Águila Negra]

The terms outlaid in the November 10 agreement are crushing for the Armenians



From Wikipedia:

1. A complete ceasefire and end to all hostilities in the Karabakh conflict from 00:00 Moscow time on November 10 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the parties stop at the positions they occupy.

2. Aghdam rayon returns to the Republic of Azerbaijan from November 20 2020.

3. Along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor there will be a peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation in the amount of 1960 military personnel with small arms, 90 armoured personnel carriers, 380 automotive units and special equipment.

4. The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. The duration of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years with automatic renewal for the next 5 year periods, if none of the parties state otherwise 6 months in advance.

5. In order to improve the effectiveness of control over the implementation by the Parties to the conflict agreements, a peacekeeping centre is being deployed to control the ceasefire.

6. The Republic of Armenia will return to Azerbaijan the raion of Kelbajar from November 15th 2020, and the Lachin region from December 1st. The Lachin corridor (5 km wide) which will provide communication to Nagorono-Karabakh with Armenia, without affecting the town of Shusha" remains under the control of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation.

By agreement of the Parties, a construction plan will be determined in the next three years for a new route of movement along the Lachin corridor, providing a link between Nagorno-Karabkh and Armenia with the subsequent redeployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to guard this route.

The Republic of Azerbaijan guarantees the safety of traffic along the Lachin corridor of citizens, vehicles, and goods in both directions.

7. Internally displaced persons and refugees return to the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent areas under the control of the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees.

8. The exchange of prisoners of war is to be made, hostages, and other detainees as well as the remains of casualties.

9. All economic and transport links in the region are to be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia guarantees the safety of transport links between western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in order to organise the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Transport control is carried out by the bodies of the Border Service of the FSB of Russia.

By agreement of the Parties, the construction of new transport communications linking the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with regions of Azerbaijan is to take place.

 

[Oberrheiner]

Depressing news

In any case I wanted to thank you Aguila for keeping us updated.

 

[Galaxy_Traveler]

Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan might go down as the most incompetent leader in the history of Central Asia. He already had a favourable status quo for Armenia, with parts of neighbouring Azerbaijan effectively under Armenian control. He still felt compelled to run his mouth and declare in August 2019: "Artsakh is Armenia, full stop", which provoked Azerbaijan. You can run your mouth when you have a strong military that is capable of projecting deterrence, but he did it without one. Then the war came and ended quickly in a historic defeat, and Pashinyan goes onto Twitter and complains that his "watch and perfume was stolen" from the prime minister's office during demonstrations.
It goes to show where his priorities are. He just lost a war as a head of state, and complains about stolen perfume.
Side note: Pashinyan used to be a journalist before he became prime minister. A Journo leading a country. What could go wrong?

 

[La Águila Negra]

The Artsakh Republic is currently in the process of withdrawing from the districts that were outside of NK yet under Armenian control (in accordance with the November 10 Agreement).

Political situation in Armenia is volatile. Its unclear to me what the current situation is, or who is having the edge.

Anti-Pasinyan demonstrations in many cities. There are also pro-Pasinyan protests. Many high ranking government officials have been given the boot, most of them are replaced with staunch pro-Pasinyan clowns

The Twitter link below links to a thread wherein the Armenian military command goes full retard.


Many churches and monasteries in ethnic Armenian areas outside NK will be soon under Azeri rule. Its unsure what will happen to them but I fear the worst. If Nakhchivan is the standard the Armenian/ Christian legacy of the land will be rooted out completely


The monastery in Davidank is outside NK yet has seen Russian military protection for days now. The Abbott (the battle priest from the famous picture, check out page 1) refused to leave. I believe the Russians are not supposed to be there according to the 10 November Agreement yet there they are.


Azeris doing what they are best known for

 

[La Águila Negra]

From Sergei Mardan (a publicist from PolitNavigator)

Copied from another site

"Pashinyan led Armenia to defeat in Karabakh. While the Azerbaijani General Staff worked for several years under the leadership of the Turkish military with experience of war against Kurds and Syrians, Yerevan dismissed the entire "Karabagh" clan and began stripping the Armenian army.

Instead of preparing for a war that has been inevitable for 30 years, building an echeloned defense, accumulating weapons and conducting combat training of military units, Pashinyan led Armenia to democracy. To Western democracy," the author notes.

"Instead of starting every morning with a map of the world on which Armenia is surrounded by enemies, and then every morning to send Putin a telegram with assurances of loyal feelings, with the wish of health and well-being, Pashinyan did not even fulfill the polite request of the guarantor of the survival of the Armenian people to leave alone his personal friend - Kacharyan," the publicist writes.

He recalls that in 1660 Armenian merchants brought the famous "Diamond Throne" to the Russian Tsar Alexei Mikhailovich as a sign of loyalty.

"And their heir, Nikola Pashinyan, did not come to meet Putin at the airport during his visit to Armenia on October 1, 2019, despite the standard diplomatic
protocol.

According to the "Eastern protocol" that Pashinyan had to soak up with his mother's milk, it was tantamount to an open insult, which could not go unpunished".

--

What it all led to. Photos from Shushi (taken by a Reuters reporter) that was with the first Russian convoy that moved into the area.

GRAPHIC

Vision Of Hell: The Aftermath Of Fighting Around Key Nagorno-Karabakh City

Shocking images captured by a photographer for Reuters in a convoy of Russian peacekeepers show heavy casualties in the fighting between Azerbaijani and ethnic Armenian forces in the battle for Shushi/Susa. (WARNING: DISTURBING CONTENT)

www.rferl.org

--

Obviously Azerbaijan didn't start this war over a tweet. They have been preparing for war for 30 years now, and have fought open battles on at least four different occassions (last time was in April 2020, 2016 before that)

The reason why they decided to go all in this time was
1. The Turkish effort (war was led by Turkish military strategists)
2. The completion of the rearmament + technological edge (Turkish/Israeli drones+ radar systems)
3. Tacit NATO backing
4. The Armenian political isolation (had estranged/ insulted their one true friend in the region)

 

[wannable alpha]

From AP - "Health Minister Arsen Torosian said a new tally showed that 2,425 Armenian forces died in the recent conflict, about 1,000 more than previously reported."

This means 0.16 percent of Armenian males died, and most were in their early 20s, so the proportion of dead among them would be higher. This in a country with already decreasing population. Armenia really is in an unenviable location. Maybe it should become a part of the Russian Federation. At least the people will be safe from a genocide or a bloody war of attrition which they will lose.

 

[La Águila Negra]

About a week ago Voxday wrote an article on the situation in Armenia.

Russia won the Azeri-Armenian war

A blog by Vox Day which concerns economics, politics, history, social policy, and the SF/F literary genre.

voxday.blogspot.com

His article was based on an article from The Saker (Russian analyst). I have included the article here so that people can read it for themselves

I thoroughly encourage everyone to read the article mentioned below. It's a long read, but well worth your time. It touches on everything that has been mentioned here, yet in much greater detail and with much more knowledge.

The Karabakh war is over. The crisis is not. What comes next? | The Vineyard of the Saker

A bird's eye view of the vineyard

thesaker.is

--

However, there are a couple of things in both Voxday's and the The Saker's article that are debatable. Especially the assumption that Russia is a winner in this conflict

I can't agree with that premise.

Also, let's keep in mind that Russian nationalists and Western alt-right/ trad-right types have the habit of exaggerating Russia's performance in the geopolitical arena.

In short, Russia is looking weak and its defensive posturing is leaving a lot of room for its enemies to manoeuvre.

Before going to the why's it's necessary to understand what Russia is trying to accomplish. The most important strategic object of Russia's foreign policy is keeping NATO as far away as possible from its borders (the so called Iron Fence)

A second strategic objective is mitigating the risk of renewed widespread Islamic insurgency in its Southern Region (Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia)

1. Russian military hardware is not nearly as capable as many think it is

This obviously relates to drone warfare. Russian airdefenses were no match for Turkish/ Israeli drones. TOR2, BUK1 & 2, S300s, they all got smoked without being able to pick up ELINT signals/ radar signals

After no more than two weeks the Azeris+Turks had established complete air control. From there on the Armenians were only delaying the inevitable

The same thing has happened in Syria bytheway, where Syrian (Russian made+ trained crews) ADs were easily taken out by Israeli fighter jets

This is bad news for countries relying on Russian made ADs.

* Even worse, it's also bad news for Russia itself. There is a big glaring hole in its defenses and rest assured that its enemies are aware of this. Russia, as it now seems, is not anticipating to future drone warfare. Instead it relies on outdated weapon systems

NATO is designing attack strategies where one long range bomber can release up to a hundred attack drones. A hundred attack drones, you read it right. A hundred attack drones swarming Russian airbases, air defenses and military positions. If Syria and NK have proven anything it is that the S300+ S400 are not up for the task. Electronic Warfare was showing great potential in Syria but will likely fall short against a much more technological advanced enemy. The S500 is at this point still a mystery

Russia needs to go back to the drawing table ASAP. Possible anti drone measures could be laser rail guns, high energy weapons like mobile laser cannons, electro magnetic anti- air artillery. New radar systems on top of that

2. The ceasefire could hurt Russia

The ceasefire is heralded as a master piece on Putin's side. Why? Because it keeps Armenia in the Russian orbit and blocks any future NATO- Azerbaijan rapprochement (part of its territory is occupied by a foreign force and on that condition alone it cannot enter NATO)

Russia has been trying to get its troops into NK since 1994. Now they got what they wanted. 2000 peacekeepers with a lot of heavy materiel

However this is a shortsighted take. Reality is that this conflict doesn't stop here. Its just a much needed break for both sides to replenish their armour, retrain their special forces (Azerbaijan) and restock their drone arsenal.

When all that is done they'll have another go. Aliyev has said it himself already. NK is Azerbaijan and they will take it, one way or another. In fact, both Aliyev and Erdo are eyeing a direct connection (through Armenian territory)

When that happens Russia will find itself in the middle of a war zone, and opposite to what it did this time, they will be forced to act

As the mediator and the guarantor Russia will also be looked at in case the conditions of the November 10 Agreement get broken. Already there is talk of Turkish soldiers in NK, whereas the agreement clearly states that should not happen

The Russian response so far? 'It's not against international law'. Alright then.

3. Russia is under constant attack yet Putin is always on the defensive

I believe the NATO strategy to weaken Russia is through death by a thousand cuts. Russia is under constant attack by proxy. It's getting sucked into conflict zones by design. It's allies are being targeted because they are friendly to Russia. Turkey is a rogue NATO member at this stage (2016 CIA funded Fethullah Gulen coup pissed Erdo off big time) yet as long as it barks at Russia they will give it the OK nod

Russia is always on the defensive. It has lost many friends during the last decades, and has seen NATO encroach constantly. NATO can create conflict zones at will. Now it is the Armenia--Azerbaijan rivalry. Before there was a color revolution in Belarus. Kyrgyzstan is unstable as well. Syria is a powder keg (watch what happens if Biden wins). Ukraine idem dito (again watch what happens if Potato Joe wins) Georgia and Moldova have Russian peacekeepers and are mortal enemies of the Russians now. NATO bases have popped up in the Baltics

Central Asia could be the next hotspot. Especially Kazakhstan (which is friendly towards Russia) is ripe for a color revolution (with Turkic/Islamic undertones). Nazarbayev is an authoritarian ruler who lives like a farao whilst his people suffer from the oil crises+ Covid1984 crisis. The southern half has turned to Islamism and Turkey (+NATO) is already making inroads.

If Kazakhstan gets color revolutioned Putin will be close to getting checkmated

4. Russia is proving to be itself a poor, unreliable ally

By now it should be clear that Russia doesn't stand by its allies. Yes, Pasinyan messed things up and has been a horrible statesman on average..

But that doesn't exclude Russia from any wrongdoing. Russia abandoned Khaddafi in 2011 in the UNSC and subsequently saw him dragged through the streets by NATO mercenaries. Slobodan Milosevic and Saddam Hussein before that. Russia waited for 4 years until it finally stood by Assad (mortars were falling on the Presidential Palace in Mount Qassioen at that time) and Russia let colour revolution after color revolution happen in former USSR states

Russia also sold Azerbaijan, a major enemy of its ally Armenia all sorts of heavy weaponry (2010 weapon deal). Russia didn't lift a (military) finger when the Azeris attacked Artsakh in 2016. Russia didn't military intervene when Armenian mainland was attacked by the Azeris in April 2020. Russia didn't honor its part of the military agreement during this round of fighting (10+ occasions of Azerbaijan targeting Mainland Armenia)

Any ally that is watching this is probably not feeling secure.

5. Russia is looking weak

Azerbaijan downed a Mi-24 helicopter and there was no response. Let that sink in. A small third world shithole country attacked the Russian military and there was no response

There once was a time were people told each other: 'if you touch a Russian soldier you'll regret it for the rest of your life.'

These days people shoot Russian choppers out of the air and nothing happens - deep into Armenia proper's territory too, mind you. No punishment for the person that pulled the trigger, no punishment for the country that encouraged this behaviour.

Briefly mentioning the thousands of Syrian jihadis here too. In what world does a military superpower let a dwarf nation + backer get away with this type of antics? Right on its southern border were jihadists have caused so much trouble in the last 30 years.. I find it unbelievable

Conclusion. This conflict will reignite. Conflicts around and in Russia's sphere of influence will keep igniting as well. Master Yoda Putin is trying to mitigate the impact of each and every blow dealt but can't keep running away from that what is bound to come

Russia had the chance to make a stand in Artsakh. It chose not to make that stand. They will have to do it eventually, either in Artsakh or somewhere else.

 

[fokker]

"Crimea and Donbass are Ukraine - Karabakh is Azerbaijan". A sign in the Ukraine supporting the Azeris.

I reckon it's because Armenia is pro-Russian - there's a reason why there's Johar Dudaev Streets in several Ukrainian cities, and why one of the US-funded whignat battalions fighting in Donbass bore his name.

 

[Oberrheiner]

It would be interesting to know who paid for this ?

 

[El Chinito loco]

I haven't gone through this entire thread but one very "interesting" aspect about this conflict is how Israel is supplying cluster munitions to Azerbaijan to kill and maim Christian Armenians. This is a pretty good example of realpolitik in the region and how Israel is happy to play Muslims off on Christians when it benefits them. Just about any conflict in the Caucasus, central asian, or middle east conflict is to advance the cause of greater Israel these days and is also a greater civilizational proxy conflict against Russia or China in the region.

From what I understand even though Azerbaijan is mostly Shiite they were flipped by Israel to become their proxy in the region.

 

[Oberrheiner]

Linking up Azerbaijan and Turkey (through Armenia) would be next

4. The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. The duration of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years with automatic renewal for the next 5 year periods, if none of the parties state otherwise 6 months in advance.

So apparently that's the plan.

Wait 5 years, request that the russian soldiers leave, finish 1915, and split current armenia between turkey and azerbaidjian.

All under the sight of the whole world which will do nothing once again (or maybe the west will help bomb erevan if they dare defend themselves ? Who knows, it's not like they never did anything like that before already ..).

 

[Arado]

It's fascinating that there's little ideological component to this conflict - it's straight up ethnoreligious conflict over territory.

So 19th century...but yet human nature doesn't change.

 

[fokker]

Macron has decided to recognise Artsakh as Azeri territory (link is in Russian):

Макрон: Карабах и прилегающие районы - территории Азербайджана - ВИДЕО

Президент Франции Эммануэль Макрон сказал, что Нагорный Карабах является территорией Азербайджана.Об этом Макрон поделился в разделе stories в Instagram, пишет руководитель Дома Азербайджана в Париже, генеральный секретарь Ассоциации друзей Азербайдж

media.az

French President Emmanuel Macron has said that Artsakh and the surrounding regions are Azerbaijani territory.

Macron shared this in an Instagram story, which was also published to Facebook by Mirvari Fatalieva, the director of the Azeri House in Paris and the secretary of Friends of Azerbaijan in France.

Fatalieva shared this quote from Macron: "According to international law, Artsakh and other surrounding regions are the territory of Azerbaijan. Due to this, if a sovereign territory doesn't have the wish, it doesn't need to get involved in this matter".

 

[La Águila Negra]

So apparently that's the plan.

Wait 5 years, request that the russian soldiers leave, finish 1915, and split current armenia between turkey and azerbaidjian.

All under the sight of the whole world which will do nothing once again (or maybe the west will help bomb erevan if they dare defend themselves ? Who knows, it's not like they never did anything like that before already ..).

Ask Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine how those timelines have worked out

Russia is there to stay. The speed which which they outplayed NATO+Turkey is quite remarkable

On November 9 there was still widespread fighting, 24 hours later a tri-lateral agreement was concluded (without Turkey or NATO involvement!), and 24 hours after that Russians had already taken up positions in NK bringing in the big guns

NATO and Turkey were outplayed. Simple as. That's why they are also going to try to sabotage the ceasefire. Expect provocations in the coming weeks already.

NK was supposed to become a Syria-like open wound. A constant drain on the Russian military+treasure. A smouldering fire that could at any given moment be poked up if the circumstances would require it. A domestic threat as well, as it was supposed to become a breeding ground for jihadists (which would then flow over into Russia's Muslim republics)

What NATO/Turkey did accomplish was antagonising both the local populace of Armenia and Azerbaijan against Russia.

The good thing is that a longterm military conflict on Russia on its Southern borders has has been averted, for now. The problem, however, is that Russia is constantly on the defensive and reacting. NATO+ its attack dog Turkey are creating conflict zones targeting Russia without any repurcussions. Russia is also looking weak by letting its enemies getting away with crossing the proverbial red lines over and over again.

My personal guess is that Turkey+ Azerbaijan (backed by NATO) are going to feel so emboldened in ~1 to 5 years that they are going to restart the conflict anyway (bypassing or even targeting the Russian peacekeepers in the process)

When that happens they might indeed declare war on Armenia Proper as well.

 

[Oberrheiner]

It's fascinating that there's little ideological component to this conflict - it's straight up ethnoreligious conflict over territory.

Not sure I understand this sentence properly.
Which war was not made for the survival/extension of your race, religion, or territory ? And for which ideology was it then ?

Ask Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine how those timelines have worked out

[..]

I wish I would share your hope.
Right now I don't see an acceptable outcome in any foreseeable future.

 

[La Águila Negra]

Pasinyan has crawled out of his bunker


Protests are ongoing


Where is the Russian flag? The level of incompetence is painful..

 

[fiasco360]

I recently spoke with a liberal Armenian (USA born) guy that I know. I said it was suspicious the way that Pashinyan came into office and it really matches what the globalists do for puppet governments around the world. He wouldn't even concede that this is a possibility. The leftist Armenians worship this journalist.

 

[Galaxy_Traveler]

There are clear reasons behind this stunning turn of events.



Nikol Pashinyan was put into power by George Soros, whose Open Society Foundations office in Armenia was able to connect to Armenian government circles over the course of several years, before eventually deciding on and funding Pashinyan's rise to power in Armenia. Pashinyan is a product of George Soros, and is a willing lieutenant of his master's interests. Through him, Soros can make key decisions in Armenia.

Who Are "Soros’s Men" in Armenia? • MassisPost

In the last few months, especially after the Velvet Revolution, the name of George Soros is frequently mentioned in Armenia. Many people link the name

massispost.com

Russophobes in Pashinyan’s team: Soros tilting boat of pro-Armenian premier: EADaily

On May 8, the National Assembly (parliament) of Armenia elected Nikol Pashinyan, representative of parliamentary minority as prime minister. Under the new constitution of Armenia, the prime minister has full power and is de-facto head of the state. The so-called “velvet revolution” in Armenia...

eadaily.com

Is the Armenian PM Pashinyan Leading Armenia to a Loosing Position over the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict? | Atlas Institute for International Affairs

Nicol Pashinyan, the current prime minster of Armenia, came to power in 2018 after a long rally and combat with Serzj Sargsyan. After his successful political campaign, he managed to achieve a revolution and to become country’s Prime Minister.

www.internationalaffairshouse.org

The president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, makes a direct reference to Soros:

Armenia is a small country and this made it easier for the open society foundation to flip it. Similar efforts are underway in many post-soviet countries, and the activities of the Soros foundation in countries like Albania have reached the highest levels of government.

I do not believe that Soros triggered the war on purpose, but what is obvious to me is that Pashinyan's incompetence is a byproduct of his getting into power with the help of Soros. Any leader who is appointed on the basis of his adherence to a certain ideology is usually incompetent. Any ideology-driven regime, be it the Soviet Union, the military dictatorship in Saddam Hussein's Iraq, or the Open Society Foundations, chooses their elite based on their adherence to their ideology and their loyalty, not by merit or competence.

 

[Arado]

Not sure I understand this sentence properly.
Which war was not made for the survival/extension of your race, religion, or territory ? And for which ideology was it then ?

Well, for the U.S. pretty much all of our post WW2 wars were fighting communism or spreading democracy as the stated goal, even if more base economic or security reasons were the real purpose.

 

[Oberrheiner]

Well, for the U.S. pretty much all of our post WW2 wars were fighting communism or spreading democracy as the stated goal, even if more base economic or security reasons were the real purpose.

Right