The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict thread (Armenia vs Azerbaijan)

wannable alpha

Woodpecker
France is Armenia's only hope as far as international help goes. Maybe the Armenian diaspora will chip in and help the Armenian gov buy and smuggle in more weapons. U.S., U.K., Germany, Russia, Iran all will just keep saying that fighting needs to stop and that they are ready to be mediators blah blah blah. Azeris have oil and more money so everyone will keep selling them weapons.

Best case scenario for Armenia - Azerbaijan gets tired of fighting since it realizes that taking over all of Nagorno-Karabakh is not possible. Armenians living there are fighting for their homeland so they will fight to the very end.

Worst case scenario - Turkey launches a full scale invasion of Armenia under the guise of stopping hostilities between two sides.
 

Beirut

Pelican
No way Russia lets Armenia fall. I'd be shocked. They threw all their weight in Syria and even Libya and put a lid on Erdogans ambitions there, they wont let him fulffil his ottoman ambitions in their own backyard of all places. The caucasus is a very sensitive region for Russia, if Turkey becomes a huge power player there its only a matter of time before it starts expanding into the muslim regions of Chechnya and Dagestan. Russia is friendly with Azerbaijian so they will try to find a political compromise to the very end but if that fails i think Russia will throw their weight behind Armenia.

On a side note a couple of my friends have left Lebanon to go fight for Armenia recently. They have zero combat experience
 
It would probably take 1 day maximum to restore order there , if what we call 'europe" didnt have any muslim in its population. If our leaders were patriots and if we had a decent relationship with Russia.

France has probably already helped Armenia behind the scenes.

But it seems that the EU is more concerned about lockdowns and sanctioning Lukashenko (who is not a military threat to anyone) than about the mahometans slaughtering an old christian country , Armenia.
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
On a side note a couple of my friends have left Lebanon to go fight for Armenia recently. They have zero combat experience
Are you a Lebanese Armenian?

I also think Russia would come to Armenia's defence. They did so before in the 1870s. Russia has also stuck it's neck right out when it cleaved off Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The later in particular was and act of walking all over NATO to cleave off a region of 50,000 people. 3.2 million Armenians is a much greater number. And there are about another 5 million Armenians worldwide.

Not to mention Crimea, Novorossia and the above mentioned Syria.

Conversley Turkey only has one real ally, Azerbijan, with its awful military record. And to a much lesser extent Pakistan, with average salaries of about $1000 pa and viewed as the lowest by most Muslims.

Further Turkey's economy has been in recession for about 2 years, https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/gdp-constant-prices

When calculated against the dollar, the TR economy has shrunk by 25% since 2013.

And the lira has tanked.

The sultan is good at sticking his neck out, but not at chalking up victories. While Russia has had victories, Erdoğan makea noise and goes home when Pyuty or NATO say 'no'.

I think Armenia should take its place back in The Russian Federation. And everywhere else in Europe should do the same. Moscow, the third Rome.
 

infowarrior1

Hummingbird
Are you a Lebanese Armenian?

I also think Russia would come to Armenia's defence. They did so before in the 1870s. Russia has also stuck it's neck right out when it cleaved off Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The later in particular was and act of walking all over NATO to cleave off a region of 50,000 people. 3.2 million Armenians is a much greater number. And there are about another 5 million Armenians worldwide.

Not to mention Crimea, Novorossia and the above mentioned Syria.

Conversley Turkey only has one real ally, Azerbijan, with its awful military record. And to a much lesser extent Pakistan, with average salaries of about $1000 pa and viewed as the lowest by most Muslims.

Further Turkey's economy has been in recession for about 2 years, https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/gdp-constant-prices

When calculated against the dollar, the TR economy has shrunk by 25% since 2013.

And the lira has tanked.

The sultan is good at sticking his neck out, but not at chalking up victories. While Russia has had victories, Erdoğan makea noise and goes home when Pyuty or NATO say 'no'.

I think Armenia should take its place back in The Russian Federation. And everywhere else in Europe should do the same. Moscow, the third Rome.
Why is Turkey fighting at multiple fronts. Don't they still have to deal with the PKK?
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
Suicide/kamikaze drone on tape


Video compilation of the damage these drones are doing. No gore but not a nice thing to see either



SPOILER ALERT (FIRST VIDEO)






Despite their heavy technological edge the Azeris haven't gained much ground yet. There is some progress on the southern axis near the town of Fuzuli but that's about it


Several Azeri incursions have been ambushed/repelled by the Armenians. There are at least 3/4 videos out there showing 50/60 KIA in total, bodies in Armenian possession (won't show the videos).


Stepanakert (capital city of the region) under attack by drones and Smerch MLRS
 
Since the beginning of the current war on September 27 based off the underlying factors and the evidence I have seen it seems highly likely Azerbaijan will be able to achieve its strategic goals, in many key areas Azerbaijan seems to have a decisive advantage over Armenia and that advantage is likely to remain unless facts on the ground change.

In terms of equipment, Azerbaijan obviously has larger military stockpiles overall, but just as importantly, Turkey which likely has large reserves of equipment and ammunition in reserve can keep Azerbaijan supplied as long as possible, Armenia has no such benefactor at the moment, in addition, Turkey can obviously produce equipment in terms of drones and other weapons delivery platforms as required to replace any losses the Azeri’s might sustain. Also it should be noted Turkey does have the economic capacity to easily replace any losses Azerbaijan incurs and inundate Armenia with equipment if required, Armenia’s whole GDP in nominal terms is only $13 billion, Turkey’s defence budget in 2019 was $20.4 billion.

So far, I have not seen any compelling evidence showing Russia will back Armenia no matter what, simply because of the Anti-Russian stance the current PM has taken, such as refusing integration with Kremlin military projects.

It’s not even a Russia against Turkey proxy war, because Russia also sold a lot of weapons to Azerbaijan. The Armenian government is not on very good terms with Russia, at least for an ally, it’s a bit like how Turkey is not a very reliable American ally and vice versa.

In terms of manpower, again the odds favor Azerbaijan, it possesses 10 million inhabitants to Armenia’s 2.95 million, a ratio of 3.4:1, even more worryingly for Armenia, due to higher Azeri fertility rates post 1991, the ratio in terms of young men is even worse for Armenia as it has an older age structure. Among men aged 20-29, Azerbaijan’s advantage rises to 4:1, in addition as pointed out in the blog post, Azerbaijan has access to Turkish mercenaries, and if required, it is not inconceivable Turkey might be willing to send soldiers to fight in Azeri uniform, Turkey has a large army and reserve force after all and most Turks and I assume this holds for Turkish soldiers as well dislike Armenians.

Regarding intelligence, it is almost certain Turkey is using its satellites and aerial reconnaissance aircraft to feed intelligence to the Azeri’s regarding Armenian troop positions and movements, Azerbaijan also clearly has air control over the battlefield which will help it in terms of gathering intelligence, as such it is likely that Azerbaijan is more well informed of Armenian troop dispositions than vice versa.

Considering Azerbaijan’s advantages in equipment, manpower and intelligence, it is likely Azerbaijan will achieve the strategic aims it has set for itself in this war.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Considering Azerbaijan’s advantages in equipment, manpower and intelligence, it is likely Azerbaijan will achieve the strategic aims it has set for itself in this war.
Your overview makes sense. Any thoughts on if the economic crisis in Turkey and crashing of the Lira could have any impact?

The concern of course is that since Nagorno Karabakh is mainly ethnic Armenian, if the Azeris take it over, then we are looking at either a wave of refugees, guerilla war, or some type of ethnic cleansing afterwards, no? At that point do you think there is a greater likelihood of outside intervention?
 

Beirut

Pelican
The problem for Russia and the countries trying to put a lid on Erdogan is the US.

If Russia gets into it with Erdogan fully, knowing that Turkey isnt some small easy state to deal with, the US can easily use this to drag Russia into a very lengthy and costly conflict by supporting Erdogan and getting Russia into a lot of trouble.

He keeps channels open with all sides and tries to play them as far as he can anywhere he can. He still cant play with the big boys though, so they do try to keep his ambitions in check. But some day its gonna go too far, and i hope it wont be too late



Not to open another tangent but Britain before and the US now have been a large thorn in the side of eastern christianity. Remember when Russians were gonna take back constantinople and Britain sent their fleet to stop them? Not much has changed.
 
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