The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict thread (Armenia vs Azerbaijan)

Robert High Hawk

Kingfisher
Since the beginning of the current war on September 27 based off the underlying factors and the evidence I have seen it seems highly likely Azerbaijan will be able to achieve its strategic goals, in many key areas Azerbaijan seems to have a decisive advantage over Armenia and that advantage is likely to remain unless facts on the ground change.

In terms of equipment, Azerbaijan obviously has larger military stockpiles overall, but just as importantly, Turkey which likely has large reserves of equipment and ammunition in reserve can keep Azerbaijan supplied as long as possible, Armenia has no such benefactor at the moment, in addition, Turkey can obviously produce equipment in terms of drones and other weapons delivery platforms as required to replace any losses the Azeri’s might sustain. Also it should be noted Turkey does have the economic capacity to easily replace any losses Azerbaijan incurs and inundate Armenia with equipment if required, Armenia’s whole GDP in nominal terms is only $13 billion, Turkey’s defence budget in 2019 was $20.4 billion.

So far, I have not seen any compelling evidence showing Russia will back Armenia no matter what, simply because of the Anti-Russian stance the current PM has taken, such as refusing integration with Kremlin military projects.

It’s not even a Russia against Turkey proxy war, because Russia also sold a lot of weapons to Azerbaijan. The Armenian government is not on very good terms with Russia, at least for an ally, it’s a bit like how Turkey is not a very reliable American ally and vice versa.

In terms of manpower, again the odds favor Azerbaijan, it possesses 10 million inhabitants to Armenia’s 2.95 million, a ratio of 3.4:1, even more worryingly for Armenia, due to higher Azeri fertility rates post 1991, the ratio in terms of young men is even worse for Armenia as it has an older age structure. Among men aged 20-29, Azerbaijan’s advantage rises to 4:1, in addition as pointed out in the blog post, Azerbaijan has access to Turkish mercenaries, and if required, it is not inconceivable Turkey might be willing to send soldiers to fight in Azeri uniform, Turkey has a large army and reserve force after all and most Turks and I assume this holds for Turkish soldiers as well dislike Armenians.

Regarding intelligence, it is almost certain Turkey is using its satellites and aerial reconnaissance aircraft to feed intelligence to the Azeri’s regarding Armenian troop positions and movements, Azerbaijan also clearly has air control over the battlefield which will help it in terms of gathering intelligence, as such it is likely that Azerbaijan is more well informed of Armenian troop dispositions than vice versa.

Considering Azerbaijan’s advantages in equipment, manpower and intelligence, it is likely Azerbaijan will achieve the strategic aims it has set for itself in this war.
Outstanding and thorough analysis, although your conclusion is very sad to hear, since it's truly unfortunate to see this kind of success by the utterly worthless Azeri and Turkish regimes.

Maybe Armenia will have to wait for Turkey to collapse and take the land back, although Erdogan has many years ahead of him.
 
Your overview makes sense. Any thoughts on if the economic crisis in Turkey and crashing of the Lira could have any impact?

The concern of course is that since Nagorno Karabakh is mainly ethnic Armenian, if the Azeris take it over, then we are looking at either a wave of refugees, guerilla war, or some type of ethnic cleansing afterwards, no? At that point do you think there is a greater likelihood of outside intervention?
It seems that economic crisis happens often to Turkey and the currency they use, the Lira. I don't think this will make any real difference because the military equipment they already have is in storage, and is just waiting to be transferred to Baku or the front-line. Planes, Drones can be flown in via Georgian Airspace.

I don't know what's going to happen, but yes it should be noted that the Azeris could take Nargorno-Karabakh and are as well poised to do so now than they probably ever will be.

I think that this could very well just end with that. The refugees would return to Armenia proper, and the Azeris would retake the land. If Azerbaijan keeps advancing, they probably would then expect a foreign power to interfere. But from the absolute clusterf**k that the new Armenian PM seems to be helping create, even Russia may just sit there and watch, secretly hoping for a replacement to Pashinyan.

From watching what he's done after the so called "revolution" in 2018, I have severe doubts about his ability to win against the Azeris. By wrecking Armenia's relationship with the Kremlin he effectively burnt his only bridge out of this.
 
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wannable alpha

Woodpecker
Excellent analysis by @AlligatorState. If the conflict was only restricted to Armenia vs Azerbaijan, Armenia could just play defense and wait for a stalemate to emerge. Azeris would then come to the negotiating table. As long as Turkey is able to supply equipment and even men to Azerbaijan, Armenia could end up losing the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region. None of the big powers are willing to put in a lot of effort to stop Turkey and Azerbaijan even if all the Armenians from NK end up as refugees cause of ethnic cleansing.
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
High ranking Azerbaijani general has been arrested on charges of espionage. This was big news this morning but now mentions have all but disappeared. Could be empty chatter


Shelling of residential areas of Stepanakert continues


Syrian mercenaries in high spirits before battle..


Couple of hours later..



Azerbaijani weapon storage facility hit


Azerbaijan has announced the takeover of two settlements. Artsakh authorities keep denying this, up until a couple of minutes ago. Independent 'geolocators' (for lack of a better word cannot manage to geolocate this image in Madagiz/ Mataghis (the hamlet conquered). Weird.

 
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911

Peacock
Gold Member
Yes, Macron is just posturing and trying to shore up his abysmal nationalist credentials at home.


Outstanding and thorough analysis, although your conclusion is very sad to hear, since it's truly unfortunate to see this kind of success by the utterly worthless Azeri and Turkish regimes.

Maybe Armenia will have to wait for Turkey to collapse and take the land back, although Erdogan has many years ahead of him.

Most of what was historically western Armenia/northern Cilicia has been taken over by the Kurds, who participated in their genocide and took over the lands and villages they ethnically cleansed. The Kurds are basically doing the same thing now in Syria, with the help of the USAF, bombing mostly Christian areas in northern Syria and taking over their land.
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
On day 9 of the offensive Azerbaijan has reported the capture of Cabrayil/Jabrayil and surrounding villages in the southern sector. No video evidence yet


SOHR reports 72 killed Syrian mercenaries so far


Azerbaijan has reportedly asked for a temporary armistice to collect the bodies from the battlefield

Ridiculous Azerbaijani propaganda


Both sides have started shelling residential areas in retaliatory attacks



 
Are you a Lebanese Armenian?

I also think Russia would come to Armenia's defence. They did so before in the 1870s. Russia has also stuck it's neck right out when it cleaved off Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The later in particular was and act of walking all over NATO to cleave off a region of 50,000 people. 3.2 million Armenians is a much greater number. And there are about another 5 million Armenians worldwide.

Not to mention Crimea, Novorossia and the above mentioned Syria.

Conversley Turkey only has one real ally, Azerbijan, with its awful military record. And to a much lesser extent Pakistan, with average salaries of about $1000 pa and viewed as the lowest by most Muslims.

Further Turkey's economy has been in recession for about 2 years, https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/gdp-constant-prices

When calculated against the dollar, the TR economy has shrunk by 25% since 2013.

And the lira has tanked.

The sultan is good at sticking his neck out, but not at chalking up victories. While Russia has had victories, Erdoğan makea noise and goes home when Pyuty or NATO say 'no'.

I think Armenia should take its place back in The Russian Federation. And everywhere else in Europe should do the same. Moscow, the third Rome.
Unfortunately , while i appreciate you as a poster , I have to disagree here. Armenia can function as fully independant , but closer to Moscow than to Baku obviously. Armenia is surrounded by enemies , including Georgia. They hate everyone around them and everyone hate them. Moscow usually goes and help them when they have a political interest to do so. Unfortunately , Azerbaijan is a trading partner for Russia too.
 
No but my friends who went are.

Just learned that another dude I know went. I know him from decades ago, he used to be jailed protesting Syrian occupation in Lebanon.

Then went to syria and helped fight against ISIS.

Now he’s going to Armenia.

His Instagram is public and he’s a known activist so I’ll post it here

A bit of a coincidence , my grandparents from the father side were Armenians from Lebanon. As Far as I understood , they were speaking Western armenian dialect , and today's armenian in Armenia is called eastern dialect.
Can you please remind us why Syria occupied Lebanon in a short paragraph ?
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
This is a good rundown of the situation and geopolitical dynamics in that conflict, from Pablo Escobar at Zero Hedge:


Armenian PM Pashinyan could be described as a liberal globalist. The majority of his political team is pro-NATO. Pashinyan went all guns blazing against former Armenian President (1998- 2008) Robert Kocharian, who before that happened to be, crucially, the de facto President of Nagorno-Karabakh.


Kocharian, who spent years in Russia and is close to President Putin, was charged with a nebulous attempt at “overthrowing the constitutional order”. Pashinyan tried to land him in jail. But even more crucial is the fact that Pashinyan refused to follow a plan elaborated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to finally settle the Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh mess.
So the Russians might be a bit slow to respond to Armenian military needs, due to the fact that their government has been hostile to Russia and has failed to cooperate on a fair, lasting settlement brokered by Russia.

Note that Lavrov is part Armenian, Russia has skin in this game. There is a large and powerful Armenian community in Russia. There is also a fairly large community in France and in the US, but they haven't been nearly as active as a lobby in recent times. This is going to be a rallying point.
 

Beirut

Pelican
A bit of a coincidence , my grandparents from the father side were Armenians from Lebanon. As Far as I understood , they were speaking Western armenian dialect , and today's armenian in Armenia is called eastern dialect.
Can you please remind us why Syria occupied Lebanon in a short paragraph ?

Yup when the genocide started happened during Ottoman times many armenians came to Lebanon as refugees. Some stayed and some later went to the US and elsewhere. No idea about the dialects though.

As for the Syria thing, this is gonna be confusing af lol. Short story:

From 1943 Lebanon gained independance and was ruled mainly by the christian president, althuogh muslims also had a large say. Lebanon prospered economically a lot, was one of the top10 GDP per capita, currency strong, etc.... But muslims and leftists back then were in a huge pro-arab and palestinian wave and viewed lebanese nationalism as meaningless. When the palestinian liberation army started armed struggle agianst Israel, Jordan kicked them out, and they moved to Lebanon. The christians refused, the muslims raised an uproar backed by Egypt back then.

After a few years of tensions basically civil war broke out. Syria was under Hafez Assad back then. In his party ideology, Lebanon is part of Syria so he may have always had plans to invade it. But anyway the Syrians were presented by and to the christians and under tacit US blessing as the only force capable of intervening and fighting the PLO. So the syrians entered at first in alliance with christians and the PLO was defeated largely and kicked out of Beirut.

Then when Egypt fell and signed a peace deal with Israel, Syrias line shifted and some viewed it had now gone closer to palestinians. Also the christian leaders may have been more pro-US and Israel at the time (probably both those), so christians and Syria fell out and were now fighting. Meanwhile Israel had also invaed the South.

So basically you had Israel in the South, a christian free area in the center , and muslim militias/syrian elsewhere (the same muslim militias the syrians had first entered to defeat)

This continued until 1990 when (after lots of events), the US brokered tha Saudi-Syrian Taef deal which pretty much gave control of Lebanon to Syria, except the South where Israel remained. A christian general (who is now our president) refused while other christian militias accepted. The syrians with US and Israeli blessing invaded the christian area and exiled him. And Lebanon stayed under Syrian occupation for 15 years after that until 2005.
 
"Signs and symbols rule the world, not words nor laws" - Confucius

You can say what you want and complain about Trump not building the wall and so on but Trump has been wonderful because it's been a symbolic victory over the left and it has made my days better seeing him pissing them off and causing constant outrage to people I got nothing but despise for.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
This is a good rundown of the situation and geopolitical dynamics in that conflict, from Pablo Escobar at Zero Hedge:




So the Russians might be a bit slow to respond to Armenian military needs, due to the fact that their government has been hostile to Russia and has failed to cooperate on a fair, lasting settlement brokered by Russia.

Note that Lavrov is part Armenian, Russia has skin in this game. There is a large and powerful Armenian community in Russia. There is also a fairly large community in France and in the US, but they haven't been nearly as active as a lobby in recent times. This is going to be a rallying point.
The US Armenian community is most centered around LA and Boston, so unlike say the Cubans in Florida they have no political power.
 
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