Outstanding and thorough analysis, although your conclusion is very sad to hear, since it's truly unfortunate to see this kind of success by the utterly worthless Azeri and Turkish regimes.Since the beginning of the current war on September 27 based off the underlying factors and the evidence I have seen it seems highly likely Azerbaijan will be able to achieve its strategic goals, in many key areas Azerbaijan seems to have a decisive advantage over Armenia and that advantage is likely to remain unless facts on the ground change.
In terms of equipment, Azerbaijan obviously has larger military stockpiles overall, but just as importantly, Turkey which likely has large reserves of equipment and ammunition in reserve can keep Azerbaijan supplied as long as possible, Armenia has no such benefactor at the moment, in addition, Turkey can obviously produce equipment in terms of drones and other weapons delivery platforms as required to replace any losses the Azeri’s might sustain. Also it should be noted Turkey does have the economic capacity to easily replace any losses Azerbaijan incurs and inundate Armenia with equipment if required, Armenia’s whole GDP in nominal terms is only $13 billion, Turkey’s defence budget in 2019 was $20.4 billion.
So far, I have not seen any compelling evidence showing Russia will back Armenia no matter what, simply because of the Anti-Russian stance the current PM has taken, such as refusing integration with Kremlin military projects.
It’s not even a Russia against Turkey proxy war, because Russia also sold a lot of weapons to Azerbaijan. The Armenian government is not on very good terms with Russia, at least for an ally, it’s a bit like how Turkey is not a very reliable American ally and vice versa.
In terms of manpower, again the odds favor Azerbaijan, it possesses 10 million inhabitants to Armenia’s 2.95 million, a ratio of 3.4:1, even more worryingly for Armenia, due to higher Azeri fertility rates post 1991, the ratio in terms of young men is even worse for Armenia as it has an older age structure. Among men aged 20-29, Azerbaijan’s advantage rises to 4:1, in addition as pointed out in the blog post, Azerbaijan has access to Turkish mercenaries, and if required, it is not inconceivable Turkey might be willing to send soldiers to fight in Azeri uniform, Turkey has a large army and reserve force after all and most Turks and I assume this holds for Turkish soldiers as well dislike Armenians.
Regarding intelligence, it is almost certain Turkey is using its satellites and aerial reconnaissance aircraft to feed intelligence to the Azeri’s regarding Armenian troop positions and movements, Azerbaijan also clearly has air control over the battlefield which will help it in terms of gathering intelligence, as such it is likely that Azerbaijan is more well informed of Armenian troop dispositions than vice versa.
Considering Azerbaijan’s advantages in equipment, manpower and intelligence, it is likely Azerbaijan will achieve the strategic aims it has set for itself in this war.
Maybe Armenia will have to wait for Turkey to collapse and take the land back, although Erdogan has many years ahead of him.