The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict thread (Armenia vs Azerbaijan)

"Signs and symbols rule the world, not words nor laws" - Confucius

You can say what you want and complain about Trump not building the wall and so on but Trump has been wonderful because it's been a symbolic victory over the left and it has made my days better seeing him pissing them off and causing constant outrage to people I got nothing but despise for.
And this has to do with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict how?
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Some good tidbits of analysis here

This is not just an insurgency or slugfest between poorly armed and trained semi-Third World militias militias. Both sides have reasonable modern armies which have bought up billions worth of NATO and Russian equipment and are manned by soldiers of reasonably high (by global, if not European, standards) and broadly comparable human capital. This makes this the most relevant conflict to how a larger conflagration between the Great Powers might look like that we’ve had in decades!
In the last 20 years, have we seen any country vs. country conflicts that involved relatively modern and moderately competent armies on both sides?

The main question now is whether the Azeris would be content with eking out a symbolic win and calling it quits, such as taking the town of Fuzuli in the east – an outcome that will be satisfactory and perhaps to the kremlins (Armenians humbled, Azeris and Turks don’t grow too big for their breeches). Or whether Aliev is intent on going all-in and trying to reclaim all of Artsakh – the regime’s rhetoric, both now and in the past, suggests that that is the goal, and that territorial pretensions may well extend beyond unrecognized Artsakh into Armenia proper.
As mentioned earlier, don't see an endgame here of Azeri victory that won't lead to ethnic cleansing and/or forced displacement.
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher

First the (for now failed) Belarus color revolution, then the Azerbaijani/Turkish offensive against a historical Russian ally and now major unrest in Kyrgyzstan, a former Soviet Republic that hosts a Russian military base and is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, the CSTO and the Commonwealth of Independant States

Don't know the details and background of all this, but from the looks of it it's just more of the same. Putin is being driven into a corner.
 
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gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
I have to disagree here. Armenia can function as fully independant , but closer to Moscow than to Baku obviously. Armenia is surrounded by enemies , including Georgia. They hate everyone around them and everyone hate them.
That may be the case. But I see being a part of Russia as the safest long-term route. Being part of Russia would mean very different rules of engagement for Sultan Erdogan. This current attack would now be a direct attack on Russia. Second, there would be no weak, globalist leader like this current one. Third, there would be no endless incursion of US, EU and Soros agents trying to enforce the celebration of homosexuality, the up-ending of Armenian culture and other facets of progressiveism.

Russia has been good at balancing the interests of its various ethnic minorities, with their varying units for devolution. Somewhere like Tatarstan gets to keep its cultural integrity while being part of (at least) the second most powerful military. Compare this to The EU, which has no interest in balancing the interests of its members - it is, like all international organisations, a globalist/left-wing body that only intends to have complete hegemony.

In terms of my home country, I have this to look forward:

- eternal mass immigration that outstrips native births, displaces native teens in work and housing
- a completely neutered/liberal right
- a state church that will soon follow the Scandinavians in promoting transgenderism and atheism ; submitting to a carbon tax in international institutions is already there no. 1 priority
- any patriotic display is on the verge of being illegal
- political leaders who allowed wholesale ethnically targeted rape against natives for decades

The rest has been discussed here ....

The future for Northern European countries under their own leadership is destruction. We all know this. Becoming a satrapy of Russia, with no democracy, or say in anything puts a halt to all of the globalist/leftist nonsense; and we start the path of reveral.

This is, of course, a pipe dream. It's just where I am at. Being a footnote in The Russian Empire is ultimately appealing compared to continual rule by 'our own people'.

Serbia should also join Russia. They intended to join The Union State between Belarus and Russia after the fall of Yugoslavia, but globalists got in the way. Serbs have the same. Their President does all the things Erdogan dose to crush his opposition; and he will have no push-back from The EU so long as he continues to be their most obedient poodle. If Serbia joined Russia, all the globalism and homoism instantly stops. The choice is between remaining as Serbia in Russia; or becoming nowhere as an 'independent' state. The difference is with Serbia, is that, they would likely vote in a landslide to do that.
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
This is a good rundown of the situation and geopolitical dynamics in that conflict, from Pablo Escobar at Zero Hedge:




So the Russians might be a bit slow to respond to Armenian military needs, due to the fact that their government has been hostile to Russia and has failed to cooperate on a fair, lasting settlement brokered by Russia.

Note that Lavrov is part Armenian, Russia has skin in this game. There is a large and powerful Armenian community in Russia. There is also a fairly large community in France and in the US, but they haven't been nearly as active as a lobby in recent times. This is going to be a rallying point.
Interesting article.

However, I think the current conflict is providing Russia with a much welcomed window of opportunity. Things were slowly slipping through their fingers

As stated before, the main goal of Russia'a foreign policy is stopping or even reversing NATO encroachment. A strong ally in the Southern Caucasus is absolutely necessary for that

Armenia was drifting away towards NATO (like Georgia and the Ukraine). The current president has a popular mandate through promising the people peace and progress

1. The Azerbaijani offensive is showing the Armenian people that NATO is not their friend, nor will NATO ever value Armenia over Turkey. It will show them that Russia is their only natural ally in the region, and that the current president has put their country and nation in great danger

The conflict will drive both the Armenian people and Armenian politics back to their pre-2018 status of Russian ally

2. The current conflict has the ability to widen the rift between Erdogan and NATO. Turkey is at this point a rogue NATO state, it does as it pleases and it gives NATO the finger frequently

They do so because they know they can get away with it

Strained NATO- Turkey relations are benefitting Russia.

3. The conflict has the potential to strengthen Russian-Turkish relations. This might sound farfetched, but Russia and Turkey always move in a pair. One creates conflict and the other moves in to support its side

They usually both get something out of it. In this case this could mean that the Azeris/Turks get a chunk of N-K and the Russians see Armenia return to their sphere of influence

To conclude: Russia will be walking a very thin line. If it wants Armenia back into its orbit it will have to keep the conflict going, without having the Azeris gain too much ground

In the meantime the Russians must avoid looking weak in front of both allies and enemies. The CSTO alliance still exists and Russia obviously forgoing it might look bad on worldstage

The moment the Armenian government makes serious policy changes the Russians will ramp up their involvement, both on the ground and on a diplomatic stage. It took them 4 years to get engaged beyond weapon supplies/intel in Syria.
 
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fokker

Pelican
Now KIM KARDASHIAN of all people has gone on record as supporting Artsakh and calling for Azerbaijan and Turkey to be condemned for starting this:


The mere sight of her makes me want to support Azerbaijan, but the Armenians need all the help they can get to make the Azeris' crimes known.
 

Robert High Hawk

Kingfisher
Now KIM KARDASHIAN of all people has gone on record as supporting Artsakh and calling for Azerbaijan and Turkey to be condemned for starting this:


The mere sight of her makes me want to support Azerbaijan, but the Armenians need all the help they can get to make the Azeris' crimes known.
Yeah it's ridiculously difficult. She has done so much damage to Western society. Yet this is a good act. And even her other cases misguided activism seems to be rooted in good faith. Her lifestyle in the past perhaps irredeemably awful, but this on it's face this is a very good gesture for her people.
 

Oberrheiner

Pelican
The Ghazanchetsots (Holy Saviour) Cathedral was targeted


Of course, according to the Jewish media, Armenia is simply accusing Azerbaijan of shelling an Apostolic Cathedral, as if there are other possible alternatives:

Listen to the msm, this is not about muslims vs christians.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Yeah it's ridiculously difficult. She has done so much damage to Western society. Yet this is a good act. And even her other cases misguided activism seems to be rooted in good faith. Her lifestyle in the past perhaps irredeemably awful, but this on it's face this is a very good gesture for her people.
She is Armenian by heritage.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Listen to the msm, this is not about muslims vs christians.
Actually, it's a bit more complex than that, this is just one layer here. The main conflict shaping up is that of Russia vs. NATO, with Muslim Iran for example siding with Armenians, and Christian Georgia siding with the globalist alliance against Armenia.

Best case scenario is a negotiated settlement where the status quo is maintained under the aegis of Russia.
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
*Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a temporary armistice on humanitarian grounds

I personally have zero hope that this will be the run up to a permanent ceasefire. Erdo/Aliyev haven't reached any of their objectives yet and the lack of international condemnation leaves a lot of space to manoeuver


* Azerbaijan has indeed taken the city of Jabrayil and are now claiming they have also taken over Hadrut

The pattern so far has been that these claims turn out to be true. Video confirmation is to be expected in 2 or 3 days


* Turkish F16s are in Azerbaijan


* Erdo is trying to turn this conflict into a jihad. The shelling of the cathedral is Shushi (doubletap, 'NATO ammunition' , by a Turkish F16 or Azeri drone) was done to provoke a response from the Armenians

Ie. shell a mosque somewhere in Azerbaijan, preferably the women/children section around prayer time


* [UNCONFIRMED] Armenian/ independent sources have alleged that the Azeris are taking severe casualties storming the heavily entrenched Armenian positions (most of which occupy the high ground as well)

* [UNCONFIRMED] As a result the same sources allege that the Azeri rank and file units are suffering from low morale



* [UNCONFIRMED] Wargonzo, a supposedly reliable Russian news outlet, has stated that Turkey is now enrolling cannon fodder from Afghanistan /Pakistan.

Yesterday a plane from Pakistan took a strange turn over Azerbaijan and went off the radar for 16 minutes

 
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