The new cold war with China

Dragon’s dilemma: Why China can’t win a war with India

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A detailed but perhaps overly optimistic Indian view of how China would fare in a war against India... This time around they seem to think they are prepared for a conflict...

 
Eagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese Navies Stack Up

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"So which country’s navy is lord of the seas?

“U.S. and other observers generally assess that while the United States today has more naval capability overall, China’s naval modernization effort … has substantially reduced the U.S. advantage, and that if current U.S. and Chinese naval capability trend lines do not change, China might eventually draw even with or surpass the United States,”

O’Rourke said. “In the South China Sea, some observers are concerned that China has already drawn even with or even surpassed the United States.”

Nevertheless, U.S. observers should “stop hyperventilating,” Swaine said, and take steps to balance against Chinese threats.

That could include a more dispersed pattern of force deployments, greater numbers of anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, less reliance on forward-deployed aircraft carriers, and a greater reliance on unmanned systems, submarines and anti-submarine warfare capabilities, he suggested."

 
Eagle vs Dragon: How the U.S. and Chinese Navies Stack Up

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"So which country’s navy is lord of the seas?

“U.S. and other observers generally assess that while the United States today has more naval capability overall, China’s naval modernization effort … has substantially reduced the U.S. advantage, and that if current U.S. and Chinese naval capability trend lines do not change, China might eventually draw even with or surpass the United States,”

O’Rourke said. “In the South China Sea, some observers are concerned that China has already drawn even with or even surpassed the United States.”

Nevertheless, U.S. observers should “stop hyperventilating,” Swaine said, and take steps to balance against Chinese threats.

That could include a more dispersed pattern of force deployments, greater numbers of anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, less reliance on forward-deployed aircraft carriers, and a greater reliance on unmanned systems, submarines and anti-submarine warfare capabilities, he suggested."

Drones. A swarm of semi autonomous drones would turn billions of dollars worth of ships into scrap instantly.
I really don’t know why the US bothered with the f35, that’s money that could’ve been spent on a fleet of semi autonomous next gen drones that cost a fraction to build and maintain.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
New column from Pat Buchanan

Is War with China Becoming Inevitable?
PAT BUCHANAN• OCTOBER 13, 2020

“The Indians are seeing 60,000 Chinese soldiers on their northern border,” Secretary of State Michael Pompeo ominously warned on Friday.

He spelled out what he meant to commentator Larry O’Connor:

“The Chinese have now begun to amass huge forces against India in the north. … They absolutely need the United States to be their ally and partner in this fight.”

Pompeo had just returned from a Tokyo gathering of foreign ministers from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad,” the group of four democracies — U.S., Japan, Australia, India — whose purpose is to discuss major Indo-Pacific geostrategic issues.
Exactly what kind of “ally and partner” the U.S. is to be “in the fight” between India and China over disputed terrain in the Himalayan Mountains was left unexplained. We have no vital interest in where the Line of Control between the most populous nations on earth should lie that would justify U.S. military involvement with a world power like China.

And the idea that Japan, whose territorial quarrel with China is over the tiny Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, thousands of miles away, would take sides in a Himalayan India-China conflict also seems ludicrous.

Yet, tensions are rising between the U.S. and China, as the list of ideological, political and economic clashes continues to lengthen.
And there is a transparent new reality: China seems in no mood to back down.

When, after a year of demonstrations for greater democracy, the Hong Kong government failed to quell the uprising, Beijing stepped in and took control. The U.S.-led democracies that had been cheering on the Hong Kong marchers and protesters did nothing, and they have done nothing since to reverse Xi Jinping’s political coup but prattle on about “values.”

Lately, the democracies have been protesting, and rightly so, the inhumane treatment of the Uighur peoples in Xinjiang in China’s west.

Han Chinese have been moved into the region to swamp the local population of Turkic and Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs and bring abou
t the demographic change Beijing desires. “Reeducation camps” have been established to cleanse Uighurs of their ethnic and religious identities and convert them into loyal and reliable Chinese Communists.

In a speech in late September, Xi declared that Beijing’s policy of eradicating the ethnic and religious identity of the minorities of Xinjiang through state-driven education has proven “totally correct.”
He vowed to imprint a Chinese identity “deep in the soul” of the peoples living there. “Our national minority work has been a success,” said Xi, “It must be held to for the long term.”

Xi makes no apology for — indeed, he is proud of — using state power to impose the state ideology upon the peoples he rules, and he openly repudiates our democratic values as inapplicable in his country.

Our rejection of China’s claims to virtually all of the reefs and atolls in the South China Sea is also being ignored. Beijing’s warnings grow louder and more pointed as the U.S. continues to send warships, the latest being the USS John McCain, close to islets claimed by China.
What is our strategy here? Are we prepared for a naval and air clash in these waters? What would be the U.S. strategic goal?
The Chinese are now responding angrily and defiantly to what they see as the provocations of sending high-level U.S. officials, and selling new weapons, to Taiwan, which China regards as its lost province.

Again, what is our purpose in playing the Taiwan card now?
If it is to provoke a fight, then are we prepared for a war in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea? Do we think the Chinese will capitulate?
Is this being done to “stand up to China” before Nov. 3?
Which is the party here that is engaged in bluster and bluff and which is the party that seems deadly serious as it views its vital interests and territorial rights as challenged?

There has been talk of the Quad evolving into an Asian NATO that embraces the major democracies in the Indo-Pacific Theater.

But the essence of NATO is Article V, where the U.S. commits itself to treat an attack on any one of some 30 nations as an attack on us.
Is there anything like this in the cards?

Australia, Japan and the U.S. are not going to war with China over its border with India, or its ethnic concentration camps in Xinjiang, or its seizing Hong Kong and atolls in the South China Sea.

When this election is over, this country has to think through what we are and are not willing to fight China for.

Xi Jinping dismisses our concerns over Hong Kong and the Uighurs, and he appears willing to fight for Taiwan and for what Beijing holds in the South China Sea, rather than see it permanently lost.

Are we?
One interesting comment:

Should China be allowed to persist in its ascent and the U.S., its descent, the dollar will lose its hegemony, its debt service (along with all its vassal states), become insupportable, and the entire Wall St. will edifice collapse. Therefore, war with China is a necessity … for the 1% and its factota. As for the rest of us, we will suffer with loss of Washington/Wall St. hegemony; but much less than after a World War.
Reported recently:

 
Should China be allowed to persist in its ascent and the U.S., its descent, the dollar will lose its hegemony, its debt service (along with all its vassal states), become insupportable, and the entire Wall St. will edifice collapse. Therefore, war with China is a necessity … for the 1% and its factota. As for the rest of us, we will suffer with loss of Washington/Wall St. hegemony; but much less than after a World War.
Maybe we will see an end to Hollywood pushing its moral decay at a financial loss if it can no longer print money out of thin air?
 
Drones. A swarm of semi autonomous drones would turn billions of dollars worth of ships into scrap instantly.
I really don’t know why the US bothered with the f35, that’s money that could’ve been spent on a fleet of semi autonomous next gen drones that cost a fraction to build and maintain.
Both sides see this now, and it will be a force multiplier. America and China will be seeding the oceans with drone torpedo swarms to terrorize the opposition. And deadly flocks of aerial drones will overwhelm ship defenses. Over time the drones will take on many different forms and missions. China is definitely behind on anti-submarine warfare, and so with drones they can better find and kill enemy subs. American naval fleets will need powerful lasers, autonomous missile arsenal ships, and aerial and undersea drone guardians, to survive in the South China Sea.

If Xi continues running China, I see a war most likely happening between 2030 and 2035. He will want to see it happen within his lifetime, even if that weakens the odds for his side winning.
 
If Xi continues running China, I see a war most likely happening between 2030 and 2035. He will want to see it happen within his lifetime, even if that weakens the odds for his side winning.
I absolutely agree. America is working on a replacement for the reaper.


82 million dollars for 16 drones vs around 80 million dollars per f35.... that’s not factoring in pilot training costs

Protector RG Mk1
Autonomous take off, landing and cruising with around 40 hours flight time. The airforce could theoretically have one person pilot 4 or more of these at once.
 

wannable alpha

Woodpecker
Drones can be shot down by older tanks as seen in the Armenia-Azerbaijan war. Pretty sure even figher jets can shoot it down from a distance and can easily outfly them. Drones can be considered as the fighter jet replacement only if there is a fleet of drones that shoots down a few fighter jets coming at them.
 
Drones can be shot down by older tanks as seen in the Armenia-Azerbaijan war. Pretty sure even figher jets can shoot it down from a distance and can easily outfly them. Drones can be considered as the fighter jet replacement only if there is a fleet of drones that shoots down a few fighter jets coming at them.
When was the last time you heard of an actual dogfight vs a plane shooting something down with over the horizon ata missiles?
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
I absolutely agree. America is working on a replacement for the reaper.


82 million dollars for 16 drones vs around 80 million dollars per f35.... that’s not factoring in pilot training costs

Protector RG Mk1
Autonomous take off, landing and cruising with around 40 hours flight time. The airforce could theoretically have one person pilot 4 or more of these at once.
How much would it reduce the cost of F35 if it was made as a remotely piloted fighter plane? Or is that impossible to do with fighter planes, due to the speeds involved and the inevitable lag in communication?
 
How much would it reduce the cost of F35 if it was made as a remotely piloted fighter plane? Or is that impossible to do with fighter planes, due to the speeds involved and the inevitable lag in communication?
I’m no expert but I don’t think it’s possible with the lag in coms. 1-2 second response time in a vehicle with a cruising speed of Mach .85 (1050km/ hr) means it can potentially move 600 meters before receiving inputs.
My point is, why do we need manevourable “dog fighters” missile tech has rendered the days of pitched battles are over. Capacity to carry and perform High altitude precision strikes and over the horizon air to air missiles is all it needs
 
How much would it reduce the cost of F35 if it was made as a remotely piloted fighter plane? Or is that impossible to do with fighter planes, due to the speeds involved and the inevitable lag in communication?
The U.S. Air Force is already experimenting by taking F-16's and replacing the human pilot with an AI. A computer pilot does not need to eat, sleep and can handle g forces a human cannot. But of course the human pilot at this point still has vastly more cognitive capability and creativity.

Drones will of course take many different shapes and missions. A drone equivalent of a forth or fifth generation fighter will cost a moderate fortune. Some theorists envision a human piloted plane that will have two drone wingmen to extend range and grant greater protection.

I can envision large drones, built for very long endurance trips, that from a safe distance trail enemy ships, and when given the command or at a predetermined point, release a host of long range anti-ship missiles. A 21st century take on the B-52 bomber... Or the flying equivalent of the arsenal ship concept.

Or you could have the aquatic version of this, just patiently waiting on the ocean floor, hard to detect, and upon activation, launching dozens and dozens of anti-ship missiles.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
I’m no expert but I don’t think it’s possible with the lag in coms. 1-2 second response time in a vehicle with a cruising speed of Mach .85 (1050km/ hr) means it can potentially move 600 meters before receiving inputs.
My point is, why do we need manevourable “dog fighters” missile tech has rendered the days of pitched battles are over. Capacity to carry and perform High altitude precision strikes and over the horizon air to air missiles is all it needs
I'm not an air combat expert but I think it's a mix of political inertia (the senior ranks of the AF are dominated by former fighter pilots, similar to former infantrymen in the Army and USMC) and the fact that even with over the horizon missiles there is still some practical use for being able to evade those missiles.
 

SlickyBoy

Ostrich
The number one external problem for America, is certainly China Israel. Americans are waking up to the fact that China Israel is using a combination of a strong growing economy, expert espionage/technology theft, cyber-warfare, huge investment in tech research and development, economic soft power, expert propaganda, bullying of our allies and neutral powers, and a massive military build-up, to attempt to take the place of manipulate and control the United States, as the greatest and most influential nation state in the world. As their economy grows and their technological abilities advance, we must not underestimate them. They are building an impressive military to eventually rival ours, with much nearly all of the tech stolen from us or given by the US, by way of financial support and policies like QME. They are hellbent on taking back Taiwan, the West Bank, Jordan, Palestine, whatever else and plan to do so within the next decade or two.

In many ways, we have sold them the very rope, that they want to hang us with... And as they plan and move forward in their schemes, America is deeply conflicted and confused fucked.
I think this reads a lot better and more truthfully, though I would not limit it to an external threat. We let their foreign agents operate with impunity as they control the very makeup of our own government and lately, even basic social discourse.

I for one am sick and tired about hearing how China, Russia, Iran and whatever other flavor-of-the-week nation state is supposed to be the next war target. This is one reality I truly hope Americans are finally waking up to, slowly but surely. We don't need another pointless war with no clear "victory" for the benefit of profiteer ex-Generals working in Big Defense or their puppet masters at AIPAC.
 
I think this reads a lot better and more truthfully, though I would not limit it to an external threat. We let their foreign agents operate with impunity as they control the very makeup of our own government and lately, even basic social discourse.

I for one am sick and tired about hearing how China, Russia, Iran and whatever other flavor-of-the-week nation state is supposed to be the next war target. This is one reality I truly hope Americans are finally waking up to, slowly but surely. We don't need another pointless war with no clear "victory" for the benefit of profiteer ex-Generals working in Big Defense or their puppet masters at AIPAC.
I do not buy into the "Israel/Jews rule the world through America" spiel. Yes, there are many Jews in the media, banking, academia, science, etc.,. but I do not begrudge them their successes as an intelligent, educated and hardworking people. The only total control by the American Jewish community is in Hollywood and the porn industry. And notice how many American Jews strongly disagree with Israeli Jews about the treatment of the Palestinians. They are not one big monolithic group that always acts in tandem with each other, as some try to portray them.

If Israel truly ruled America, we would have gone to war with Iran years ago! Lol But some people still actually say Israel has near total control over Washington D.C.... I do realize that at times Israel acts as a fair weather friend to America, and sells technologies we transfer to them, to enemies like China. After enduring the Holocaust, Israeli Jews have a skeptical eye regarding allies and I suspect only fully trust themselves. They have a couple of boomer subs, so if Israel ever gets overrun by enemies, they can nuke every Arab and Persian city in the Middle East.

An essay by Alan Dershowitz about the subject of Jews running the world... When I was having sjw's attacking me for merely wanting to discuss mass immigration to Europe, I found in my research that he was one of those who steadfastly challenged it.

"Consider, for example, the alleged Jewish control of the media. It is true that Jewish families have ownership interests in the New York Times and other newspapers. But those newspapers don’t promote Jewish “control” of the world. Indeed, they are often at odds with Jewish public opinion. The same is true of Wall Street, Hollywood, and academia, where individual Jews hold diverse opinions on issues of Jewish concern. But to the anti-Semite, all Jews are the same and their goal – to control the world – is identical.

So, no – Jews do not control the world. Many contribute to the world through their individual accomplishments, but that is true of members of every religion, ethnic, and racial group. The world would be a poorer place – intellectually, artistically, charitably and in many other ways – if there were no Jews. Many European countries that were complicit in ridding themselves of their Jewish populations have come to regret their actions. So let’s make sure that Europe’s remaining Jews remain safe from the anti-Semites who spread the lie of Jewish control of the world."

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/alan-dershowitz-do-the-jews-control-the-world

I felt the need to respond to your post, but please keep in mind that this thread is about the brewing cold war between China and America, which is a very real thing. America must be prepared for when China strikes at Taiwan. Our global reputation is on the line.
 
What war with China could look like

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This lengthy and detailed article shows the uphill battle the United States and her allies would face against China. The interesting thing about the piece is that it seems to indicate time is the big issue in terms of China needing to figure out when they will be strongest and we will be the weakest, in terms of deploying new and revolutionary weapons systems like improved lasers for ships and next generation drones. The ideal time for China to invade Taiwan may be around 2027. The U.S. military has awakened to the threat, but there is a good chance we will not be ready and fully equipped when China goes on the move, unless we have a full ten to fifteen years to prepare. These will be interesting times.

 
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