The new cold war with China

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Tibet was part of China during the Yuan Dynasty in the 1300s then again more recently. Inner Mongolia was united with China due to the fact that Mongols ruled China on and off. Xinjiang is China's western frontier and the eastern edge of Turkic settlement. All of these territories are more legitimately Chinese than Hawaii or Guam are American.

Nation-states like Italy or Germany were formed in the 19th century. China's modern era nationbuilding has come at a later stage, mostly in the 20th century, although it is still ongoing with Taiwan, which they will incorporate into the mainland sometimes in the 30s or 40s, most likely through an economic integration as the mainland will reach a GDP that is about 2-3 times the current level, as China moves from a GDP per capita similar to Bulgaria's today to clinb to the level of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy in the 20s and 30s.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member

Very interesting presentation and Q&A by John Mearsheimer, an old school geopolitics honcho who advocates an extremely aggressive line against China. Mearsheimer is not a neocon, in fact he believes and has stated that the relationship between the US and Israel/AIPAC is toxic and needs to be reassessed, and that the US needs to switch its full focus against China.

I don't share Mearsheimer's aggressive stand, I think we should try to get along, the same way say, France and Germany have gotten along. This being said, Mearsheimer is a very refreshing analyst in that he doesn't beat around the bush and gives you the actual gameplan and playbook of the hardcore American nationalist perspective. He doesn't pretend to hold the neoliberal line of standing up for human rights of Chinese Muslims and so forth, his perspective is that of pure power politics. I thought this aspect of his delivery made for a very interesting lecture.
 
I have been away from the forum for awhile and it has been interesting reading over this thread that I started awhile back. I'm glad that it is still going and that we are closely examining the rise of China. Being in the Philippines, I was proud of my host country when they pushed out the majority of Chinese vessels that had anchored in their sovereign territory. It just took two new guided missile frigates bought from South Korea (and the third one on order), and two American aircraft carriers backing them up, should things have gotten out of hand. I think China, ever the bully, thought they would get away with their behavior.

The relatively near-term flashpoint of course is Taiwan. I think if the CCP is wise, they will just wait several decades or more, as their economic and military power rises ever higher, until Taiwan may fall into their hands like a ripe plum. But I don't think Xi Jinping has that kind of patience, because he wants to see Taiwan under CCP direct domination during his reign. He wants to go down in history as the CCP leader who conquered Taiwan.

But of course rather than a direct invasion, he may blockade the island nation and then dare the U.S. and the world to defy him and rescue the little country. And so only after successfully defeating an international flotilla would he attempt a very risky land invasion. As horrific as it sounds, I could imagine him nuking a small Taiwanese city, and then telling Taiwan that if they want to survive as a nation, they must unconditionally surrender and be occupied. The U.S. might back away from such an extreme situation. Taiwan have allowed themselves to be extremely vulnerable by not having their own indigenous nuclear deterrent. They should have had some boomers, as well as land-based missile silos, for a nuclear punch.

Taiwan seems to have woken up to the real threat from China. But it will take time to implement change in their military, ranging from hardware to troop training. Unlike Israel, they are not a little country that takes their security with deadly seriousness. But then geography has allowed for Taiwan to feel at ease, with an ocean strait and mountainous terrain to give them a sense of safety. They now finally plan to build in-house anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, to make an invasion that much more difficult, something they should have done ages ago. And they are going to shift from a conventional western big nation battle plan, to using drones, hand held missiles, small boats, hidden weapons caches, and general guerilla tactics to make life very hard on a CCP invader.

There are two trains of thought about just when an attack might happen. One is that it might happen as early as within 2-3 years, because China is worried about American plans to build an in-depth missile capacity to protect Guam, Taiwan, Japan, etc., and to destroy Chinese bases and missiles along their coastline. Also, next gen lasers (not the currently deployed lasers on American ships that are underpowered) and rail guns will give American warships extra capacity to defend and attack. Also, the army and air force have tentative plans to deploy large numbers of troops and aircraft into the South China Sea area, so we will have a massive forward deployment force, ready to pounce on an attacking China. And so if China attacks Taiwan within just the next few years, we will still in some ways have "our pants down," and China will have an advantage in their own backyard. The second train of thought is that China will wait at least a full decade or more to attack Taiwan, which is a great deal of time for not only them to build far more warships, aircraft, attack subs, missiles, drones, and various weapons platforms, but also the U.S., who has woken up to the threat China poses to American/western global hegemony.

America has some excellent allies, such as Japan who have built a formidable navy around anti-submarine warfare. This combined with the deadly American attack sub force could really hammer the PLAN Navy, which currently has a weak anti-submarine warfare capacity. India also has a fairly strong navy, and it working on making it better. Meanwhile, South Korea is an interesting case in that they have a fairly formidable and quite advanced navy, but they are focused on North Korea, and have whispered that they really don't want to annoy China, for trade reasons. This will be an American challenge, as China can use their trading muscle to control and bully our allies to desert us. As for Australia, they badly neglected their navy budget for a long time, and now have on order a large number of modern attack submarines, but they won't be build and deployable for another decade! But still, they may be targeted by China in a war with the U.S. if they are seen as giving comfort to an enemy.

If China attacks Taiwan and loses/backs down, I would be glad to see the CCP regime overthrown, but I doubt that would happen. I think their police state is strong enough that though there may be demonstrations and great discontent, that they will still remain in power, in part due to a combination of patriotic propaganda and brute force from the security apparatus. But I do think Xi Jinping's reign would be over, and he would be put into a sudden retirement, with a less aggressive faction of the CCP taking over.

China's economic/military/technological/political power is most likely only going to grow more and more, over the next century, with an economy which in time may be over twice the size of the United States. If they make it a major priority, which they seem to be doing, they will in time have a military which across the board will generally be as good as ours, and larger. And I suspect they may provoke wars with various nations over the years to get real world combat experience for their troops. And so my hope is that the CCP regime in time will mellow out (respect the civil liberties of their own people and the sovereignty of other nations) after Jinping leaves, either by retirement or being forcibly replaced. But I have my doubts about that ever happening. I think he has set up an aggressive expansionist orientation/mindset for the CCP which will roll on long after he is gone.

And so for now the CCP seems to not respect the civil liberties of their own people or outsiders. Many in the west had thought they had stopped the horrific practice of forced organ removal, but that has unfortunately not been the case. The main interest of the CCP is gaining power at all costs, both at home and abroad. And with that in mind, they steal every technological secret they can get their hands on, and run an espionage program that completely outdoes what the Soviet KGB did at their height! The "Great Firewall of China" keeps their citizens in the dark, and a disloyal tweet or pm can easily get someone arrested. But this was only the beginning, as they are building now a social credit system to monitor and grade/punish citizens for their loyalty. If you go too off the CCP plantation, you will wind up not being able to buy a plane ticket, buy land, receive a loan, or leave the country. Christians, Muslims and other religious groups are under severe persecution at the hands of the ruling Communists. Pictures of Christ get torn down, and church buildings get bulldozed. And Hong Kong has been put under the heel of the CCP long before they were scheduled. Yet another broken agreement by the CCP. The huge fishing fleets of China suck up tons of fish from the waters of other nations, and only force gets them to leave. This damages the livelihood of local fishermen from around the world.

It is a sad irony that China, a nation that was once badly bullied and used by both western and eastern powers, now is the bully going to the gym every day to get stronger and stronger. In a sense they play out the role of trauma and its consequences, but rather than for a single person, it is for a large nation hungry for what they see as their rightful place in the world, that should be achieved at almost any ethical cost.

I hope that in Africa and also Siberia, that Chinese influence can lead to a peaceful focus on development for China. What is going on in Nigeria and other African places will hopefully bring long-term benefits to the dark continent's communities. And we may see the rise of a new people and culture, as more and more Chinese men marry African women. But then again, as various African nations say that the loan agreements they signed with China were unfair and that they will not repay, we may see CCP military expeditionary forces invading parts of Africa to settle scores.

It will be fascinating and riveting to see if the western democracies are up to the challenge of successfully dealing with China over the next hundred years, as the Middle Kingdom rises to full superpower/hyperpower status. America cannot militarily/economically handle China by itself over the long-term, and so it will take many loyal allies helping us to contain CCP aggression and teach them how to treat us.

In the Transhuman Space tabletop roleplaying game, China ends up being the nation which largely colonizes the planet Mars. But to the horror of CCP senior leaders back on Earth, the Chinese colonists over the generations lose touch with the Communist Party, and Chinese nationalism. They first and foremost dare to see themselves as Martians!
 

dicknixon72

Pelican
This whole "China invading Taiwan" thing simply will not happen. Taiwan has a technologically-advanced front-line defensive force comprised of 2M men, only two possible amphibious landing approaches - of which they've had SEVENTY YEARS to fortify - and there is no guarantee the Chinese can even mount and coordinate such an operation successfully. The thought of It is logistically, politically, and - most importantly - economically unsavory.
 
This whole "China invading Taiwan" thing simply will not happen. Taiwan has a technologically-advanced front-line defensive force comprised of 2M men, only two possible amphibious landing approaches - of which they've had SEVENTY YEARS to fortify - and there is no guarantee the Chinese can even mount and coordinate such an operation successfully. The thought of It is logistically, politically, and - most importantly - economically unsavory.

There is the classic sneaky invasion scenario, but then there is the blockade option, and even the horrific but quite possibly effective option of nuclear blackmail, due to Taiwan lacking their own nuclear deterrent. Yes, Taiwan has had seventy years to prepare, but their military looks better on paper than in real life. But they currently have a president and senior military leaders who recognize this problem, and have a plan to fix it. But it will take some time, and they may not have as much as they hope. Yes, it would be a huge gamble for the CCP to mount an invasion of Taiwan, but the Party has clearly stated to the world that before the 100th anniversary of the CCP (2049), they will conquer Taiwan, one way or the other.

And yes, such a war would be economically and politically unsavory to the extreme. There have been leaks that the Party senior leadership want the invasion to happen roughly twenty years before the 100th anniversary of the CCP, so that the West will have largely forgotten about the war, by the time 2049 rolls around, for the huge global celebrations planned. The CCP does not want their big day to be ruined by a global boycott. The economic distress caused by such a war would certainly be terrible, but China seems willing to pay that price, so they can capture Taiwan on their own schedule, and to prove to the world and themselves that they are a truly great military power not to be trifled with by their enemies. Currently China is working to develop greater economic self-sufficiency, and part of the motivation may come from plans for a future major war.
 
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I have been away from the forum for awhile and it has been interesting reading over this thread that I started awhile back. I'm glad that it is still going and that we are closely examining the rise of China. Being in the Philippines, I was proud of my host country when they pushed out the majority of Chinese vessels that had anchored in their sovereign territory. It just took two new guided missile frigates bought from South Korea (and the third one on order), and two American aircraft carriers backing them up, should things have gotten out of hand. I think China, ever the bully, thought they would get away with their behavior

Glad to have you back MF2050

As for the island dispute, that is still not solved. The number of vessels has diminished but Chinese ships are still lingering around the Whitsun Reef. I did chuckle about the choice of words a bit. If the vessels would have left, it would have been because of diplomatic negotiations and not because of Filipino muscle flexing (because they have nothing to flex with).

This ordeal has been talked about in detail, post #813 and #816. What you are seeing here are theatricalities related to the domestic situation

In early 2022 there will be General Elections in the Philippines and there is a lot to gain/lose. In fact, it has me a little worried. At this point I am sure there will be widespread manipulation and rigging. The powerful, formerly ruling class of oligarchic elites (supported by the Davos crowd) want Duterte/ Duterte's pick (his daughter Sarah Duterte and/or Senator Bong Go) out.

I won't draw too much on the current Filipino political climate as it's not my home country, but I think Duterte could be compared to Trump with the oligarch's pick Leni Robredo being Joe Biden. Leni Robredo is right now the Vice President and during the 2016 elections, like JoJo, she experienced miraculous 'ballot hikes'. And like Senile Joe, she's relentlessly pushed by the oligarchy owned legacy media. The international community is clearly on her side too.

I recently talked about this with the waifu. It's exactly like it is elsewhere. Leni Robredo is as dumb as a rock (easily controllable), speaks like a mealy mouthed bureaucrat (speaks but says nothing) has no charisma/authority and is under the spell of those who pull the strings behind the scenes. They are already predictively programming, it's Leni Robredo for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Everything Duterte does gets reported Trump-style

The other angle that is important is the Atlanticist - Eurasian Alliance angle. Duterte is not hostile to China, and instead plays the US and China against one another. Because of the global powershift and the globalists' increasing despair I fear that we could see a repeat of 2019 Hong Kong, 2020 Thailand and 2021 Myanmar. An Anti-China coup/insurrection that has the fingerprints of the NED, CIA, MI6 and Sorosites all over it

To get back to this island dispute, the Filipino legacy media loves it because it gives them the ammo to paint Rody Duterte as weak on China, as someone that is squandering Filipino territory, as a traitor, a corrupt sellout. It's nonstop media attention on the issue. People love it. Duterte tried to negotiate it out, but when the domestic pressure became to big he put on his tough guy attitude. That shows that he is not invincible and can be pushed around.

They are slowdripping the media campaign against him. The election is now 9 months out and they blame him for the bloody The War on Drugs, the handling of the scamdemic, the Whitsun Reef dispute and probably all the other problems he inherited too.

International globalists organisations are now opening another front against him. This week the ICC has announced that they will open a probe against the Filipino government and President Rodrigo Duterte for his involvement in the extrajudicial killings. They can't hit him with these kind of political processes in his home country so they are doing it internationally. The investigation is lead by an African lady named Fatou Bensouda. Honk, honk.

I think that in the next 9 months they will slowly open up the faucet further and further to slander his name and destabilise the country. False flags and made up BS about corruption can be expected. I believe that there will be widespread vote rigging to push Robredo over the finish line. If the gap is too big the globalists might resort to mob tactics and urban insurrection to destabilise the country even further - and make it pay for its choices (like Myanmar)
 
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This whole "China invading Taiwan" thing simply will not happen. Taiwan has a technologically-advanced front-line defensive force comprised of 2M men, only two possible amphibious landing approaches - of which they've had SEVENTY YEARS to fortify - and there is no guarantee the Chinese can even mount and coordinate such an operation successfully. The thought of It is logistically, politically, and - most importantly - economically unsavory.
The only way Taiwan can (maybe) withstand a Chinese attack is through a rapid response by its main ally the USA

The idea that the Taiwanese are somehow a military match for China is nonsense
 

dicknixon72

Pelican
The only way Taiwan can (maybe) withstand a Chinese attack is through a rapid response by its main ally the USA

The idea that the Taiwanese are somehow a military match for China is nonsense

What is this based on? Only a handful of amphibious landings have taken place throughout history with any modicum of success, and even those that were have been mounted with heavy casualties, unless the strategy here is just to throw bodies after bodies at Taiwanese coastal defenses.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
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What is this based on? Only a handful of amphibious landings have taken place throughout history with any modicum of success, and even those that were have been mounted with heavy casualties, unless the strategy here is just to throw bodies after bodies at Taiwanese coastal defenses.
There is no need for a ground invasion unless their is urgency (ie. a US counterattack).

In case of war, Chinese BMs would take out Taiwan's military airports + other military infrastructure within the first hours of the conflict thereby completely grounding the Taiwanese airforce, damaging its supply chains and crippling its air defenses. EMPs will be launched on civilian centers making the entire island go dark

A naval blockade of the island will be the next stage. Due to its naval build up China now has an impressive naval force, and the proximity of Taiwan to Mainland China means that any relief force will be subjected to attacks by submarines, BMs, war ships and both ground and naval aircraft carrier based aircraft.


In short Taiwan, even with its rather successful defense industry, better starts leveraging its cards while it still can. If they'd opt for re-joining the PRC they may become an autonomy. All foreign relations & defense matters would be relegated to Beijing, but everything local will be decided on the island itself

In the long run, their independence isn't viable, & they have a lot more to gain not pursuing it.

Of course this last paragraph will never materialize as their limpwristed leadership is under the spell of Sorosites (include weak LGBT pushing female 'leaders') and would rather fight their brothers from across the Strait than kick out the invaders that have turned the island into some sort of US protectorate

Taiwan needs to be careful not to end up like Georgia, Ukraine or many of the Arab countries that were thrown under the bus during the Arab Spring. I sincerely doubt the US' preparedness to risk WW3 (and possibly an paradigm changing defeat on top of that) because of domestic Chinese affairs.
 
@Aquila Negar - Calling it just domestic Chinese affairs is a bit of a stretch though..

Taiwan is a strategic ally to the US with an emphasis on Strategic. location, location, location.

Having US bases and US allies allover the South China Sea Pacific was key to the US' previous plans to contain China.

Compare US bases and strategy to the Cuban Missiles Crisis where the US freaked about having nukes or even bombers so close to its coastline.
Back at the start China didn't even have nukes, things have changed for sure.
The US has previously had Taiwan, Guam, Philippines, South Korea etc. as a string of allies justifying its presence and allowing it to project power in Chinas front-yard which was all part of their plan to contain China and project force all over the world. All these things we already know.

China have been dogged in taking back the strategic advantage in the South China Sea
and America has been pathetic.
The elite in the US has been determined on managing a decline. (((I wonder why?))).
It makes me laugh when I hear Rhodesians talking about how treacherous the Brits (Lord Owen, Carrington, etc.) were in the final days of Rhodesia but "Kissinger was one guy you could really get on with.." "Yeah Ian Smith said that, Kissinger was the best out of all of them" - sure he was .. because he knew how to use a catspaw. Meanwhile he was busily arranging the rise of China and telling the Goyim what a good idea THAT was.

Despite the amount of Taiwanese management of Chinese factories and companies there is no love lost between the Taiwanese and the Mainland.
The Mainland want Taiwanese conductor technology which is a lot of what the war-strategizing is about.

If you had asked any British officer or Consul stationed in HK during the 70s how long the Brits could hold the PLA in the event of an invasion the answer was always "30 seconds".
The end of the lease was negotiated and HK got '50 years of democracy': more democracy than they ever got under the British or they would ever get under the PRC normally.
Well the Chinese waited approx 25 years and then tore that all up.
We in these pages went on about the CIA Soros Globo-Homo feral HK youths etc. etc. but the fact was that the PRC broke their much vaunted deal with HK. They have now stopped pretending that they are interested in HK rights at all.

So for the Taiwanese independence is existential, just as re-taking Taiwan is existential for mainlanders. The Globo-Homo stuff is only for the upper middle class. The working class in Taiwan are very based and openly hate on the PRC. From what Ive seen in China the feeling is mutual. The Taiwanese do not expect any favours.

China doesn't have a very good track record so far of foreign wars. they got their ass handed to them by the Viets back in the late 70s and put a lot of man hours into making up stories explaining how they actually won that encounter. (A new war will be interesting for China as they are yet to use their newfound strength and toys conventionally.)
When it comes to their own ethnic Chinese people however .. or hill tribes .. or significantly weaker Tibetans / Mongols whose territory they manage to take its a different story.
All their insane xenophobia and China No. 1!!! pride comes out and they go to great lengths making daily life a living hell for those conquered peoples, from a surveillance state intruding everywhere into people's lives to their favorite tactic: that being thamzing: getting their prisoners to not only inform on each other but beat the hell out of each other in front of their PRC overseers in order to save their own skins. (also sticking grenades up pregnant women vaginas. pumping sewage into peoples stomachs until they burst, liberal use of electricity etc.) whilst they ship in their favoured Chinese mainlanders to demographically replace the vanquished citizens they openly hate upon. Many of the conquered hill tribes meanwhile have been wiped off the face of the planet. Entirely.

The idea that Taiwan could get some kind of sweet-heart deal from the PRC now that would guarantee anything at all going forward would be seen as surreal in Taiwan.
they know that they are up against it with the (((perfidious))) US as their ally but they do not feel comfortable in any way shape or form coming under PRC rule. Nor should they.
They know what's coming.
 
@Aquila Negar - Calling it just domestic Chinese affairs is a bit of a stretch though..

Belated response Barron

Noone is disputing that Taiwan is not Chinese territory, not even Taiwan itself.
Taiwan is a strategic ally to the US with an emphasis on Strategic. location, location, location.

The term 'ally' implies equality, and brotherhood.

Taiwan is not an ally, it's a rogue pretender state/ US vassal treated as a bargaining chip by the US imperialists/ US based globalists
Having US bases and US allies allover the South China Sea Pacific was key to the US' previous plans to contain China.

I am not sure about that.

Never in the previous century has the US tried to contain China- in fact it was actually the opposite. The US has been trying to build up China first as a counterforce to Imperial Japan, then as counterforce to the Soviet Union and finally as part of the a globalist plan to starve off the White US middle class whilst creating giant money rackets overseas.

What is relevant here is that China was a valuable US bargaining chip for much of the 60s and 70s. The Sino- Soviet split (resulting in the '69 Sino-Russian War) pushed China towards the US and this first resulted in under the table support for the CCP, and later in the 1972 Nixon reestablishment of US-China relations. At no point did the US try to contain China during those years. The Soviet Union/ Russia is a whole different story though

This relationship, which at times dawned and which at times froze, basically continued up until Obama's 'Pivot to Asia' and Trump's trade war.

What we are seeing now is a major attempt to revise history and place the US-China rivalry as far back as possible.

Compare US bases and strategy to the Cuban Missiles Crisis where the US freaked about having nukes or even bombers so close to its coastline.
Back at the start China didn't even have nukes, things have changed for sure.
The US has previously had Taiwan, Guam, Philippines, South Korea etc. as a string of allies justifying its presence and allowing it to project power in Chinas front-yard which was all part of their plan to contain China and project force all over the world. All these things we already know.

This is unfortunately neo-con propaganda.

The Soviet Union was a serious military adversary, China not at all. After the 1991 fall of the SU there was no military motive to keep the Pacific+ East Asia occupied with US bases.

It was pure and unfettered imperialism, a tributary system wherein minor, weaker countries had to play ball or else

The imaginary enemies were just that, imaginery enemies. Used to justify gigantic military spending and huge military presence around the globe
China have been dogged in taking back the strategic advantage in the South China Sea
and America has been pathetic.
The elite in the US has been determined on managing a decline. (((I wonder why?))).
It makes me laugh when I hear Rhodesians talking about how treacherous the Brits (Lord Owen, Carrington, etc.) were in the final days of Rhodesia but "Kissinger was one guy you could really get on with.." "Yeah Ian Smith said that, Kissinger was the best out of all of them" - sure he was .. because he knew how to use a catspaw. Meanwhile he was busily arranging the rise of China and telling the Goyim what a good idea THAT was.

Kissinger is a walking skeleton and Brzezynski's ideology is for the first time in 40 years not the dominant line of thinking within the American political class

The decline of the US is not managed, it is accelerated from elements within. What their plan is noone knows but at this point I am pretty sure that it has more to do with re-arranging their own society than with grand and incoherent theories of packing up their bags and moving to China.
Despite the amount of Taiwanese management of Chinese factories and companies there is no love lost between the Taiwanese and the Mainland.
The Mainland want Taiwanese conductor technology which is a lot of what the war-strategizing is about.
China has been catching up on the semi-conductor technology at a rapid pace, as have countries like South Korea and others

Aside from that, this argument goes both ways. The US can cut off China from its Taiwanese semi-conductors but China can cut off countries like the US/Japan from its semi-conductor chips too.
If you had asked any British officer or Consul stationed in HK during the 70s how long the Brits could hold the PLA in the event of an invasion the answer was always "30 seconds".
The end of the lease was negotiated and HK got '50 years of democracy': more democracy than they ever got under the British or they would ever get under the PRC normally.
Well the Chinese waited approx 25 years and then tore that all up.
We in these pages went on about the CIA Soros Globo-Homo feral HK youths etc. etc. but the fact was that the PRC broke their much vaunted deal with HK. They have now stopped pretending that they are interested in HK rights at all.
The US operated a Hong Kong consulate in which more than 1100 'staffers' were employed. It was obviously a center for spying activities, social engineering and subversive activities.

They tried to stir up sh*t in both 2014 and 2019. These were attempts at color revolutions which if successful, could have been extremely destabilizing. The idea was to delegitimize the CCP and maybe have these protests spread to mainland China.

If anything the Chinese have been way too lenient on HK. Both during the protests and in the aftermath. The HK police managed to restrain these violent youths without inflicting a single casualty. The 'harmonious' silk gloves approach afterwards was equally ridiculous. In no other country does one get extraspecial rights because one was colonized ~150 years ago, and then even more extraspecial rights because one do the bidding of foreign adversaries against one's own country.

This is simply madness that cannot stand. Western countries have become adjusted to the idea that they can just impose their will on others and speak from a misplaced position of morality/superiority. When you take step back and start to think of the whole thing it becomes clear how utterly insane this whole argument is.

Xi recently spoke at the 100 year anniversary of the CCP and made similar remarks. He talked about cracked open foreign skulls and a Chinese wall of flesh and blood.

We are truly entering a new era in world history, but I am afraid some very stubborn have-been countries will only find this out the hard way

I also don't agree with the statement that everything 'has been torn up'. HK will in 2022 organize the 'Asian Gay Games'. That's as much proof as one can need.
So for the Taiwanese independence is existential, just as re-taking Taiwan is existential for mainlanders. The Globo-Homo stuff is only for the upper middle class. The working class in Taiwan are very based and openly hate on the PRC. From what Ive seen in China the feeling is mutual. The Taiwanese do not expect any favours.

Existential as in the 23 million Taiwanese will cease to exist if they decide to give up their status as US protectorate?
China doesn't have a very good track record so far of foreign wars. they got their ass handed to them by the Viets back in the late 70s and put a lot of man hours into making up stories explaining how they actually won that encounter. (A new war will be interesting for China as they are yet to use their newfound strength and toys conventionally.)

China doesn't fight foreign wars because it's not an Empire. Events that happened half a century ago do not count.
When it comes to their own ethnic Chinese people however .. or hill tribes .. or significantly weaker Tibetans / Mongols whose territory they manage to take its a different story.
All their insane xenophobia and China No. 1!!! pride comes out and they go to great lengths making daily life a living hell for those conquered peoples, from a surveillance state intruding everywhere into people's lives to their favorite tactic: that being thamzing: getting their prisoners to not only inform on each other but beat the hell out of each other in front of their PRC overseers in order to save their own skins. (also sticking grenades up pregnant women vaginas. pumping sewage into peoples stomachs until they burst, liberal use of electricity etc.) whilst they ship in their favoured Chinese mainlanders to demographically replace the vanquished citizens they openly hate upon. Many of the conquered hill tribes meanwhile have been wiped off the face of the planet. Entirely.

This sounds very much like the anti-White SJW histrionics coming from countries like the US and Canada. Now it is instead aimed at China by self-proclaimed right-wingers.

In neither case does it hold ground and does it leave room for proper analysis and discussion

The idea that Taiwan could get some kind of sweet-heart deal from the PRC now that would guarantee anything at all going forward would be seen as surreal in Taiwan.
they know that they are up against it with the (((perfidious))) US as their ally but they do not feel comfortable in any way shape or form coming under PRC rule. Nor should they.
They know what's coming.
The Taiwanese are in no position to be choosers. Their time is running out fast. If they prefer living in 'diverse', subversive, LGBT friendly, globalist, late stage capitalist shit holes they can always ask GB to extend the HK deal to Taiwan

In my opinion not getting hurt and living prosperous lives in a system and culture that are, in many aspects, comparable to the Taiwanese one would be a huge gesture of goodwill already.

In most countries and eras the 70+ year long Taiwanese antics would be considered acts of high-treason and rebellion
 
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China has been working hard on forging new ties with its neighbors. Some examples of the changing outlook of the geopolitical landscape in Asia.

Vietnam. China and Vietnam strengthen bilateral ties, agree on military cooperation.


Indonesia. China and Indonesia have signed a Memorandum of Understanding and will increase cooperation in many different areas.


Pakistan. Major Chinese ally that has traditionally also played the US. After the withdrawal from Afghanistan the US proposed several drone bases on Pakistani territory. The Pakistani declined


South Korea. South Korea has declined to join the Anti-China Quad (which is a proto-pacific NATO). The US (which has 50k troops on its soil) pressured SK to join but President Moon refused.


Turkmenistan. Several weeks ago the Turkmen and Chinese agreed on the expansion of LPG infrastructure and a wide investment program in Turkmenistan


Sri Lanka. Not mentioned in the article, but recently the Sri Lankans have rejected US demands to scale back ties with China.



In other news, India has re-directed 50000 soldiers towards the Chinese-Indian border.




Big Tech might soon leave HK. Good news, these companies are all fronts for US soft power and the US information war. China needs to take back control of its own information sphere

 
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Peacock
Gold Member
Weird timing.

The Biden Administration has stated that it does not support a potential Taiwanese move for independence


Same dynamics as with the Ukraine and Putin, a Taiwanese declaration of independence would trigger a Chinese invasion. Biden's people don't want to get into a direct war against either Russia or China on their home soil, because they would likely lose. Any scenario of a US would win involves an enormous cost in human life and military expenditure that the US public and econmy cannot support, while China would consider a war over Taiwan as an existential fight for the motherland in which they would throw 5-10 million troops.

Such an massive war would have the same effect on the domestic US oligarchical regime that the Falkland War had on the Argentinian junta, which fell after their humiliating defeat against the UK. It would also precipitate the end of the American/US$ empire with countries like Saudi Arabia, Peru, Egypt or Indonesia dumping US political patronage for the new global hegemon as that partnership comes with economic and financial benefits.

For both China and Russia though war is not necessary and is also to be avoided, because they would also sustain economic and physical damage, but they need to show readiness for war, as Putin skillfully did earlier this summer by massing troops at the Ukrainian border. China would not mind a limited skirmish in the Taiwan Strait where they could sink a couple of US ships in a display of regional dominance, especially if the US plays economic hardball by cutting off China as they did with Russia, which means that China would have little to lose from a limited military confrontation on their home waters where they have the edge.

China and Russia though can get the same result without any collateral war damage just by staying the course as their economies and military become progressively stronger. Right now the combined military power of Russia and China is about equal to that of the US, but the balance of power is gradually shifting. China is building frigates in 3 months at about 1/5th the cost of a US frigate, while Russia's Su57 costs less than 1/5th that of the F22, and around 1/15th that of the F35 when program development costs are taken into account.

So that's why there won't be a direct war between the US and either Russia or China soon, despite this decade being a prime Theucidides Trap conjuncture.
 
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