The new cold war with China

MRAll134

Pelican
It looks like things are heating up in the Pacific. Chinese naval ships were spotted near the Aleutian Islands. And with the pedo' unpresident-in-charge, there will be little resistance to Chinese intrusions:

US Coast Guard spots Chinese warships off Alaska
Four Chinese warships, including one of its most advanced destroyers, were spotted sailing in the waters off Alaska late last month as the Chinese navy steadily expands its range, according to photos posted on a Pentagon information service.

The photos taken by the US Coast Guard showed the four Chinese naval vessels shadowed by two US Coast Guard cutters in international waters within the US’ exclusive economic zone in the Aleutian Islands on August 29 and August 30, according to the Defence Visual Information Distribution Service.

According to the photo captions, the US and Chinese vessels had “safe and professional” interactions and their verbal communications were in accordance with international standards, including the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, a non-legally binding agreement to prevent clashes at sea.

The Chinese vessels were a Type 055 destroyer, a Type 052D destroyer, a Type 815 spy ship and a Type 903 replenishment ship...

Source (Beijing based news source): https://www.scmp.com/news/china/mil.../us-coast-guard-spots-chinese-warships-alaska

Another source: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coast-guard-shadowed-chinese-warships-near-alaska-2021-9?op=1
 

dicknixon72

Pelican
It looks like things are heating up in the Pacific. Chinese naval ships were spotted near the Aleutian Islands. And with the pedo' unpresident-in-charge, there will be little resistance to Chinese intrusions:

...

The Chinese vessels were a Type 055 destroyer, a Type 052D destroyer, a Type 815 spy ship and a Type 903 replenishment ship...

Great. After years of memorizing the Soviet/FSB naval structure, I now have to familiarize myself with all these silly 'Types' with no reporting names.

EDIT: Nevermind. I've found reporting names. I feel slightly better now.
 
US keeps on playing really, really dangerous games.


Video from Alexander M. About a week ago Biden('s handlers) had a phone call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and presumably Xi to talk some sense.

That meeting was sabotaged and torpedoed within hours by the neo-con run US State Department and National Security Council through proposing a name change for the Taiwanese political office in DC, from Taipei Political and Representative Office to Taiwan Representative Office


This could lead to a domino effect. Obviously a Taiwanese Declaration of Independence, or a US recognition of Taiwanese independence or basically anything moving into that direction is a big no-no. It might as well be seen as a Declaration of War. Much like a move towards NATO membership for Ukraine will be seen as a Declaration of War by Russia. These are clear red lines that shouldn't even be contemplated.



In a response Chinese state owned media and government officials have stated that the PLA should start flying fighter jets over Taiwan - as it's Chinese territory. If the Taiwanese react the way towards 'retaliation' will be open

From the article:

Will the military on the Taiwan island dare to prevent PLA fighters from flying over the island and fire? Our answer is that: As long as the mainland's determination to conduct such a patrol is unwavering, if Taiwan fires, it would mean that the Chinese mainland will launch a destructive retaliation. Even a war to liberate the Taiwan island will start. In this context, the Taiwan military will never dare to fire at a PLA aircraft on such a mission.

The mainland fighter jets' flight over the Taiwan island must be backed by large-scale and overwhelming military preparedness. Fighters flying over the Taiwan Straits is only a part of the Chinese mainland's determination to reset the situation across the Straits. This will be a showdown that gives the DPP authority two choices: either accept the patrol and refrain from the extreme anti-mainland line of colluding with the US and Japan, or start a war by firing at military aircraft of the Chinese mainland and face the consequence of being destroyed and eliminated by the PLA

 
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dicknixon72

Pelican
I once again feel people are both overstating the capabilities of PLA forces versus Taiwanese defenses and understating the long term pointlessness of a military incursion against what mainland China considers its own populace that will surely result in casualties of its own people.

The Chinese on both sides of the strait aren't stupid 4/8-year cyclical LARPers like our government officials.
 
I once again feel people are both overstating the capabilities of PLA forces versus Taiwanese defenses
And I am on the other hand completely baffled by the continuously made argument that an isolated Taiwan actually has a chance when facing a massive Chinese military intervention.

This has been addressed in post #871 of this thread
and understating the long term pointlessness of a military incursion against what mainland China considers its own populace
I am not sure whether you actually read and watch the sources provided by others and I. The military option is on the table, and actively talked about within the highest echelons of the CCP leadership

The CCP would prefer a non-violent gradual incorporation but the way things are going that seems unlikely.

that will surely result in casualties of its own people.
Brother wars are always the most vicious and violent. CCP will gladly accept a couple of (tens of) thousand of civilian victims in exchange for kicking the GAE+ local collaborators of its own territory.
The Chinese on both sides of the strait aren't stupid 4/8-year cyclical LARPers like our government officials.
Taiwan is not an independent nation and as such it is very much affected by retards occupying the Oval Office. These name changing moves are obviously not coincidental


Like the duo above said, the US Empire is not in retreat - it is full on collapsing in several theaters around the world. The time for the Taiwanese to make up their minds is running out fast. The silly attempts to move towards recognition are a step into the wrong direction
 
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Caduceus

Pelican
China does not care if 50% or more of Taiwan's population dies in order to take the island by force.
The Chinese living there expect things like free elections, free movement of people and money, and "laissez faire" capitalism.
The less of those types people "greater china" has, the more pleased the communists in Beijing will be.
After the war to conquer Taiwan, Beijing will just repopulate Taiwan with communist loyal mainland Chinese, like they have been doing with Hong Kong for 20 years now.

Millions of dead Taiwanese who were "decadent western oriented" anyway are "collateral damage" to Beijing.
 
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Lunostrelki

Woodpecker
No invasion of Taiwan until late 2022, probably, if then.

Xi needs to get his third term at the 20th Party Congress and to secure this position he needs to defeat the Jiang Zemin/anti-Xi faction that is now more or less allied with the Western establishment (Soros et al).From a broader perspective, Xi also needs to ramp up the nationalist narrative to boost his own image as the people's leader, lessen the influence of Chinese officials promoted under the old leadership, and gradually remove China from the globalist world order.

The reason Beijing is cracking down on the tech/education/entertainment sector is mainly because these industries are strongholds of his political rivals. Many retired leaders are still quite powerful, so Xi needs to build up a strong enough case to give himself the justification for a third term. In the CCP, that means launching political campaigns, kind of like how Mao started the Cultural Revolution ("bombard the headquarters") to take power back from Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping after his disastrous handling of the Great Leap Forward.

In this case, Xi's already in the "headquarters," so what he wants isn't chaos, but control and order. There's a good chance we'll see a major political campaign (Great Nationalist Cultural Revolution?) in the next year, which will remove much of the meddling influence of opposition factions and secure the loyalty of the military.

After that, Xi could either leave Taiwan as a convenient propaganda scapegoat, or find some opening in the Biden-Harris administration's "leadership" to pull a Crimea on the island. A major shooting war with the US would be a disaster for the CCP, as it would give the B-H admin a chance to regain some clout from the Afghanistan failure, and in conventional warfare the US is still miles ahead of the PLAN and PLAAF.

Any action to take Taiwan in the next 10 years would have to be accompanied by clever diplomacy (goading the US into "cooperation" or the pandemic and climate change plus the usual pulling at Wall Street's heartstrings is a good example).
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
China does not care if 50% or more of Taiwan's population dies in order to take the island by force.
The Chinese living there expect things like free elections, free movement of people and money, and "laissez faire" capitalism.
The less of those types people "greater china" has, the more pleased the communists in Beijing will be.
After the war to conquer Taiwan, Beijing will just repopulate Taiwan with communist loyal mainland Chinese, like they have been doing with Hong Kong for 20 years now.

Millions of dead Taiwanese who were "decadent western oriented" anyway are "collateral damage" to Beijing.

A takeover of Taiwan plan would involve a blockade of the island and the bombing of key infrastructure (ports, runways, oil tanks, powerplants) that would paralyze much of Taiwanese activity within days. Second step would be a bombing of military outposts along the shore followed by a mass invasion of an army of hundreds of thousands of CCP soldiers sailing the Taiwan straight in a huge commandeered civilian fleet (fishing boats, cargo vessels, shuttles etc) along with their navy, with China maintaining A2/AD area denial of the region.

China's military is still no match for the US in a land war on neutral soil (same with Russia's military), but they would be fighting on home turf the type of war their whole military has been geared towards for decades now. The US Navy's edge in carrier groups would probably be denied by the threat of hypersonic missile swarms, and overall, China has the edge as they view Taiwan as an existential national goal towards which they are willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of soldiers, while the American public is war-weary and has no real stake in Taiwan.
 

YoungColonial27

Robin
Orthodox
A takeover of Taiwan plan would involve a blockade of the island and the bombing of key infrastructure (ports, runways, oil tanks, powerplants) that would paralyze much of Taiwanese activity within days. Second step would be a bombing of military outposts along the shore followed by a mass invasion of an army of hundreds of thousands of CCP soldiers sailing the Taiwan straight in a huge commandeered civilian fleet (fishing boats, cargo vessels, shuttles etc) along with their navy, with China maintaining A2/AD area denial of the region.

China's military is still no match for the US in a land war on neutral soil (same with Russia's military), but they would be fighting on home turf the type of war their whole military has been geared towards for decades now. The US Navy's edge in carrier groups would probably be denied by the threat of hypersonic missile swarms, and overall, China has the edge as they view Taiwan as an existential national goal towards which they are willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of soldiers, while the American public is war-weary and has no real stake in Taiwan.

Your whole hypothetical ignores anti-satellite weapons. If any significant power like China or Russia or the US went to war against a peer, GPS would be their first target, and frankly, I'm not confident the US could cope with such a setback, nevermind adapt to it better than it's adversaries.

Though of course that would also mean ignoring NATO which would require very good reason to not get involved. So I suppose it suffices.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Counterpoint: it took 30 years and a major "catastrophic and catalyzing event like a new Pearl Harbor" for the public to regain its appetite for war after the Vietnam experience, as well war in Taiwan would be nothing like Iraq or Afghanistan, it would arguably be the hardest military challenge in the entire history of the United States. Nazi Germany might have been a slightly bigger challenge, but they were effectively neutralized by the 25 million strong Soviet army.

This being said, there seems to be a bit of buildup underway for a confrontation:

 
Some background info on the the new Australia-UK-USA superalliance (cutting the 5 eyes back to three?). The Chinese are very angry that the US will now export its nuclear submarine technology to the Aussies, as it as part of a clear build up of the anti-China forces in the region (and a stepping stone towards a possibly nuclear armed Australia, another Chinese fear).

This is of course on top of the angry and shell-shocked French reaction after the 90 bn USD Australia-France submarine deal was canceled - courtesy of the USA. I find it all incredibly hilarious



 
La Aguila Negra wrote:
"The CCP would prefer a non-violent gradual incorporation but the way things are going that seems unlikely."

Many within the CCP may very well want this, but Xi Jinping definitely seems to want to conquer Taiwan during his tenure as the leader of China. He wants to go down in the history books as the man who reunified the two countries! Oh, I meant to say *one* country! Lol

"Taiwan is not an independent nation and as such it is very much affected by retards occupying the Oval Office. These name changing moves are obviously not coincidental"

Well, on paper at least it is not an independent nation...

"Like the duo above said, the US Empire is not in retreat - it is full on collapsing in several theaters around the world. The time for the Taiwanese to make up their minds is running out fast. The silly attempts to move towards recognition are a step into the wrong direction"

The U.S. Empire is refocusing its strength on China. And it still very strong, especially in regards to our submarine force, which is enhanced by our Japanese allies. And so the CCP should just be very patient, and within a century or so, Taiwan will most likely fall into their hands like a ripe fruit, and without a shot taken. But Xi Jinping wants Taiwan fairly soon, and he wants his military to gain the military experience and glory that would come from successfully fighting Taiwan, the U.S., and her allies. And as a result of such a CCP victory, American hegemony would never be the same, with our decline greatly increasing in speed due to such a world changing event. And so he may actually dare to invade within the next few years, before the U.S. and Taiwan can properly redeploy forces, upgrade warships, and bolster their defenses against such things as massive missile attacks. There is a window of vulnerability for the U.S. and Taiwan that I suspect Jinping will exploit by rolling the dice of war. The U.S. for too long focused on middle eastern boogeymen, rather than preparing for war in China's backyard, and so we may pay a steep price for this, even if we do win.
 

dicknixon72

Pelican
France says Biden acted like Trump to sink Australia defence deal
"This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr Trump used to do," Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told franceinfo radio. "I am angry and bitter. This isn't done between allies."
...
The French Embassy in Washington said it was cancelling a gala event related to French-U.S. ties on Friday following the day's events.
 
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