The new cold war with China

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Taiwan is a de facto independent country by any definition of the word. The island has never been under PRC control, was only ever ruled from the mainland for ~200 years of its history (late 17c to late 19c). The people are ethnically Chinese and the language and culture are Chinese (albeit using traditional characters and a large number of unique colloquialisms in the former and significant Japanese influence on the latter) but that doesn't automatically make the country a part of China any more than say Austria is a part of Germany or New Zealand is part of the UK. Hardly anyone in Taiwan still considers themself Chinese in a national (as opposed to ethnic) sense and those who do are typically boomers clinging to the fantasy of retaking the mainland under ROC rule rather than being taken over by it.
 

Hansel

Robin
Taiwan is a de facto independent country by any definition of the word. The island has never been under PRC control, was only ever ruled from the mainland for ~200 years of its history (late 17c to late 19c). The people are ethnically Chinese and the language and culture are Chinese (albeit using traditional characters and a large number of unique colloquialisms in the former and significant Japanese influence on the latter) but that doesn't automatically make the country a part of China any more than say Austria is a part of Germany or New Zealand is part of the UK. Hardly anyone in Taiwan still considers themself Chinese in a national (as opposed to ethnic) sense and those who do are typically boomers clinging to the fantasy of retaking the mainland under ROC rule rather than being taken over by it.

There’s no good way to rebut the mainland claim to Taiwan. It’s not about de facto independence but more about the mainland retaining a casus belli.

Whether it is de facto independent has never been in doubt and is never the point. The shortcoming of this reasoning is that the mainland is relying on the unification of the geographical concept of China, which it derived from the earlier Qing Dynasty and the ROC, not whether it was in PRC control. Border delineation by way of cultural sphere and previous government administration has always been how countries fixed their borders. Another important point is that the civil war has never formally ended with neither side ever trying to negotiate one at all, which leaves the wriggle room for the mainland to continue its claim.

The point about Austria and Germany is precisely a RESOLVED matter of cultural German identity, since nowadays Austria is not considered a part of Germany simply because the Austrians lost the Austro-Prussian war that resulted in Prussia deciding to go their own way and forgo the Greater Germany plan, which was an equally popular option back then. At the same time Bavaria had no intention to join Germany despite being in the same cultural group, and that led to several crises later in the early 1900s with Bavaria almost leaving the German Empire.

The other problem is that Chinese control of Taiwan from the 17th century onwards would have to be enough to substantiate a claim. The US has been cleverly caught by this predicament because it would also need to return its land to the Native Americans if it doesn’t agree with this. And Spain would get Gibraltar and Roussillon back from the British and the French, just to name a few cases.

But of course as was the case with Austria and Prussia the case of national border ultimately comes down to fighting it out. Anyway from a viewpoint of semantics the mainland cannot be regarded to be in a disadvantaged position, which is all it needs.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
There’s no good way to rebut the mainland claim to Taiwan. It’s not about de facto independence but more about the mainland retaining a casus belli.

Whether it is de facto independent has never been in doubt and is never the point. The shortcoming of this reasoning is that the mainland is relying on the unification of the geographical concept of China, which it derived from the earlier Qing Dynasty and the ROC, not whether it was in PRC control. Border delineation by way of cultural sphere and previous government administration has always been how countries fixed their borders. Another important point is that the civil war has never formally ended with neither side ever trying to negotiate one at all, which leaves the wriggle room for the mainland to continue its claim.

The point about Austria and Germany is precisely a RESOLVED matter of cultural German identity, since nowadays Austria is not considered a part of Germany simply because the Austrians lost the Austro-Prussian war that resulted in Prussia deciding to go their own way and forgo the Greater Germany plan, which was an equally popular option back then. At the same time Bavaria had no intention to join Germany despite being in the same cultural group, and that led to several crises later in the early 1900s with Bavaria almost leaving the German Empire.

The other problem is that Chinese control of Taiwan from the 17th century onwards would have to be enough to substantiate a claim. The US has been cleverly caught by this predicament because it would also need to return its land to the Native Americans if it doesn’t agree with this. And Spain would get Gibraltar and Roussillon back from the British and the French, just to name a few cases.

But of course as was the case with Austria and Prussia the case of national border ultimately comes down to fighting it out. Anyway from a viewpoint of semantics the mainland cannot be regarded to be in a disadvantaged position, which is all it needs.

By that logic China also has a valid claim on Mongolia. Interestingly, the ROC government still technically claims sovereignty over Mongolia, although everyone including the Mongolians recognized the claim for what it is. (And Taiwan wasn't actually part of the ROC during the time it ruled all of the mainland pre civil war, it was ceded to Japan late in the Qing dynasty and didn't revert to the ROC until after WW2.)

The civil war never formally ended because either side requesting formal peace talks would effectively be surrendering its claim on the other's territory. China obviously isn't going to do that and Taiwan can't because doing so would signal an end of their adherence to the "one China" charade, likely provoking an invasion and quite possibly giving the US an excuse not to come to their defense.

And the people of Taiwan don't get any say in the matter? Fairly certain virtually none of them want to be ruled by Beijing. It's sad that they've allowed globohomo to get a foothold on the island, but that doesn't nullify their right to self governance.
 
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Hansel

Robin
By that logic China also has a valid claim on Mongolia. Interestingly, the ROC government still technically claims sovereignty over Mongolia, although everyone including the Mongolians recognized the claim for what it is. (And Taiwan wasn't actually part of the ROC during the time it ruled all of the mainland pre civil war, it was ceded to Japan late in the Qing dynasty and didn't revert to the ROC until after WW2.)

The civil war never formally ended because either side requesting formal peace talks would effectively be surrendering its claim on the other's territory. China obviously isn't going to do that and Taiwan can't because doing so would signal an end of their adherence to the "one China" charade, likely provoking an invasion and quite possibly giving the US an excuse not to come to their defense.

And the people of Taiwan don't get any say in the matter? Fairly certain virtually none of them want to be ruled by Beijing. It's sad that they've allowed globohomo to get a foothold on the island, but that doesn't nullify their right to self governance.
The ROC under Chiang Kai-Shek formally recognized the Mongolian secession after WW2, which was the result of Soviet meddling, while Taiwan was lost through an unequal treaty, which always gives the losing side a valid claim of reconquest. Since the ROC was the recognized successor state of the Qing Dynasty, it could claim sovereignty over Taiwan which was why it went over to them after the Japanese surrender. By extension the PRC acknowledged itself as and has been recognized as the successor of the ROC (with the PRC taking the title of China in the international sense), so that it is operating under the official borders of the ROC circa 1949, which includes Taiwan but not Mongolia.

You are right about the civil war point, and that’s precisely the point. The ROC was ruled by first and second generation mainlanders (bureaucrats and army men) who saw themselves as an exiled existing government, right until 1996. By that time the PRC has gotten strong enough both reconquest and declaring independence are no longer viable options. Nevertheless that’s enough for the mainland to do what they want.

And of course the Taiwanese don’t get any say in this matter. Neither the Koreans nor the Vietnamese got their say in the partition. It’s international politics after all. Getting sympathetic looks with slogans at a Toronto rally Is one thing, not getting laughed at in Congress is another. Plus the Taiwanese are basically the sons of the exiled enemies of the PRC, nobody in the mainland cares about their opinions. Of course it ultimately depends on your self positioning on this forum. If you’re viewing this thread as a place for venting out your anger and disdain for the PRC, then sure. If you’re commenting in the shoes of a decision maker or a think tank, then it’s not useful to make values as part of the reasoning while predicting or analyzing events.
 

Samseau

Owl
Orthodox
Gold Member
China cannot take Taiwan in a conventional war right now by any measure. The USA would simply institute a naval blockade against China and in retaliation until China surrenders. China would lose 80% of their economy overnight because America submarine fleets are still the most dangerous weapons in the world.

People here seem to think just because the USA is on the decline, that its military is somehow incapable of using nuclear subs and firing torpedos miles away from a completely invisible vantage point hundreds of feet underwater. The fact that these subs are also armed with nuclear payloads is also all the more terrifying; there is a 0% our globalist overlords would neglect such powerful weapons.

In any conventional war, China goes broke and starving within 5 years. There's no way the CCP doesn't know this. They will not launch any conventional wars until an interior land route is completed (aka the silk road initiative).

Not only would China lose badly, in a conventional war, because of their extreme reliance on water shipping routes, but, they would be forced to surrender on extremely unfavorable terms to the USA, granting the USA tons of money, power, and control over China for the foreseeable future. The Chinese would lose all standing with the rest of the world and no one would help them fight against the USA either. They would become cut off from the world and collapse from within due to hunger alone. That's why it won't happen, the Chinese are waiting for the proper foundations to be laid before they start a fight with the submarine fleet.

America's response to China is clearly seen with an increase to Australia and Japan's naval fleets, especially Aussie subs. We are doubling down on the most effective weapons on planet earth. Anyone who has studied even 20 minutes of recent naval history should know that submarines are king in naval warfare. They are unstoppable and dangerous, are what stands directly between China and Taiwan, and this is the only reason Taiwan has not been invaded yet.

The real fight with America and China, I predict, will take place in Iran, as America will attempt to sabotage the Silk Road in order to keep China contained within our naval network.
 
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Caduceus

Pelican
The Chinese would lose all standing with the rest of the world and no one would help them fight against the USA either. They would become cut off from the world and collapse from within due to hunger alone. That's why it won't happen, the Chinese are waiting for the proper foundations to be laid before they start a fight with the submarine fleet.


On the surface you are correct Samseau...but would the entire western world really support a total naval blockade of China just to protect tiny Taiwan ? Is that relatively small island really worth all that effort ?

Furthermore, if a blockade really happened, where on earth are all the western countries going to get all their Chinese made goods from ? Something like 70% to 95% of everything a western person uses in their lives on a daily basis (from clothing, to computers, to smartphones, to to automobile parts, to tools and materials in the home) are made in China or in countries that China has huge power and influence over.

The factories in western countries hardly make anything anymore, and the alternative countries to supply us with products such as India, Africa and South America can hardly make products of the same standard and deliver them in the same fast timeframes as the Chinese do. I know everyone loves to complain about how crappy Chinese products are, but trust me it's still way better than something made in India or Africa.
 

uncledick

Woodpecker
China cannot take Taiwan in a conventional war right now by any measure. The USA would simply institute a naval blockade against China and in retaliation until China surrenders. China would lose 80% of their economy overnight because America submarine fleets are still the most dangerous weapons in the world.

People here seem to think just because the USA is on the decline, that its military is somehow incapable of using nuclear subs and firing torpedos miles away from a completely invisible vantage point hundreds of feet underwater. The fact that these subs are also armed with nuclear payloads is also all the more terrifying; there is a 0% our globalist overlords would neglect such powerful weapons.

In any conventional war, China goes broke and starving within 5 years. There's no way the CCP doesn't know this. They will not launch any conventional wars until an interior land route is completed (aka the silk road initiative).

Not only would China lose badly, in a conventional war, because of their extreme reliance on water shipping routes, but, they would be forced to surrender on extremely unfavorable terms to the USA, granting the USA tons of money, power, and control over China for the foreseeable future. The Chinese would lose all standing with the rest of the world and no one would help them fight against the USA either. They would become cut off from the world and collapse from within due to hunger alone. That's why it won't happen, the Chinese are waiting for the proper foundations to be laid before they start a fight with the submarine fleet.

America's response to China is clearly seen with an increase to Australia and Japan's naval fleets, especially Aussie subs. We are doubling down on the most effective weapons on planet earth. Anyone who has studied even 20 minutes of recent naval history should know that submarines are king in naval warfare. They are unstoppable and dangerous, are what stands directly between China and Taiwan, and this is the only reason Taiwan has not been invaded yet.

The real fight with America and China, I predict, will take place in Iran, as America will attempt to sabotage the Silk Road in order to keep China contained within our naval network.

Agreed, but when do you think those foundations will be laid? I think the 2030s will be one hell of a chaotic decade conflict wise, because by 2030 the silk road should be completed.
 

MRBR1908

Pigeon
America got kicked out of Afghanistan by a bunch of dudes with the most rudimentary of weapons and a lot of tenacity, plus not afraid to die for their cause. The Chinese are a fairly homogeneous nationalistic bunch that would stick together in a war, unlike half of the USA that would want to fight, and the other half that either would want to sue for peace, or just realistically understand we're making China our enemy, much as how we've made many countries "our enemy" in the past seventy years of deep state.

Looking into metallicman's blog and some of his articles and stories about Chinese military capacity, and strengths, and that we'd probably be shredded if we started a hot war with China, and it would go nuclear, and then no one wins.
 

Transsimian

Ostrich
Gold Member
Agreed, but when do you think those foundations will be laid? I think the 2030s will be one hell of a chaotic decade conflict wise, because by 2030 the silk road should be completed.
Supply lines are only as strong as the weakest point.

The 带路 project goes through the strike range of many hostile and/or unstable countries.
带路 is a commercially beneficial and bond-forming project, not a military lifeline.

As for Afghanistan, it took mere days for America to overthrow the government and collapse the country. The CCP, Mainland China and the Chinese are even more dependent on modern infrastructure and supply chains. If the Americans just wanted to fuck shit up without "nation building", it'd be child's play. Xi Jinping and the Red Aristocracy know this, hence investing much of their appropriated wealth in the developed world.
 
Victor Gao, Vice Chairman for the Center of China & Globalisation when asked about the strategic implications of AUSUK and the transfer of US nuclear technology to Australia

Gao also used to be Deng XiaoPing's personal translator


Former US intelligence officer


Australian newspaper

1632230873174m.jpg
 
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Samseau

Owl
Orthodox
Gold Member
Agreed, but when do you think those foundations will be laid? I think the 2030s will be one hell of a chaotic decade conflict wise, because by 2030 the silk road should be completed.

You won't need to wait that long. I expect wars to start this decade. By the time the silk road project is completed, it will be too late for America, so the goal is to disrupt it before it is completed.

America got kicked out of Afghanistan by a bunch of dudes with the most rudimentary of weapons and a lot of tenacity, plus not afraid to die for their cause. The Chinese are a fairly homogeneous nationalistic bunch that would stick together in a war, unlike half of the USA that would want to fight, and the other half that either would want to sue for peace, or just realistically understand we're making China our enemy, much as how we've made many countries "our enemy" in the past seventy years of deep state.

Looking into metallicman's blog and some of his articles and stories about Chinese military capacity, and strengths, and that we'd probably be shredded if we started a hot war with China, and it would go nuclear, and then no one wins.
No, we didn't get "kicked out," our military did the job it was meant to do, which was outfit some of the world's most dangerous terrorists with the most advanced weapons and training possible (it did take 20 years of hard work to do it), so that a massive war can start in earnest. This is what our parasite class wanted, and they got it. Afghanistan was a complete success for the banksters, and they will promote the generals involved.

China is not able to feed itself, so really, none of their military matters until this weak point is addressed, hence their silk road project.
On the surface you are correct Samseau...but would the entire western world really support a total naval blockade of China just to protect tiny Taiwan ? Is that relatively small island really worth all that effort ?

Furthermore, if a blockade really happened, where on earth are all the western countries going to get all their Chinese made goods from ? Something like 70% to 95% of everything a western person uses in their lives on a daily basis (from clothing, to computers, to smartphones, to to automobile parts, to tools and materials in the home) are made in China or in countries that China has huge power and influence over.

The factories in western countries hardly make anything anymore, and the alternative countries to supply us with products such as India, Africa and South America can hardly make products of the same standard and deliver them in the same fast timeframes as the Chinese do. I know everyone loves to complain about how crappy Chinese products are, but trust me it's still way better than something made in India or Africa.

It's not about Taiwan, it's about China. Taiwan is the Gews ultimate tool to someday conquer China. They want China's massive slave class for itself, without the CCP acting as a middleman for all of that slave labor. It's nothing more than classic greed in action.

As for the specifics of a war and blockade with China; yes American and Western plebs will have to live without the newest iPhone for several years, perhaps 5 years or more. It will be tough, but our snowflakes will make it.

Conversely, try living for 5 years without any stable food production. Let me know how that works for you :laugh:

Then, once China is forced to surrender or starve to death, bankers can take over the country and use the population's slave class for their own ends, even cheaper and more efficient than before, and America and other countries will once again get all of their slave goods again.

A war and blockade of China is probably seen as nothing more than investment for the banker class, one that will pay off huge after the country is conquered.

Supply lines are only as strong as the weakest point.

The 带路 project goes through the strike range of many hostile and/or unstable countries.
带路 is a commercially beneficial and bond-forming project, not a military lifeline.

You could not be more wrong here, but I like where you are thinking because you are on the right track. Very simple: what starts as a commercial lifeline will rapidly morph into a military lifeline.

The silk road project does not go through countries that are hostile to China, but hostile to the USA. A whole new interior Axis of land powers is going to form around this project in order to counter American naval power. And if there are a few interior land countries that refuse to bow to China's will? They will be ruthlessly conquered by China's incredible land army if need be.
 
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uncledick

Woodpecker
and the hits keep on coming. Here is a recent headline from the globohomo "The guardian"

China to clamp down on abortions for 'non-medical purposes"

Here is the link to that rag "paper" if you care:


A quick summary, China is cracking down on most abortions to promote native ethnic population growth.

I find it interesting that while the western world travels into a matriarchal society with a dash of trannie-archal flavor, every decision china has made recently is reintroducing and reinvigorating a patriarchal society. From reducing youths time with videogames, to closing the door to globohomo themes in its entertainment, to promoting masculinity in its education and media, to encouraging regular fitness regime's, to neutering the cosmopolitan billionaire class (ie Jack Ma), to glorifying its nation state, its ethnic people, and its history etc..

It all reminds a old westerner of what we used to value in our nations and the reasons why we became so strong to begin with... im finding the only difference is the Chinese's lack of spirituality (Christianity or anything really), hell am I not seeing alot of similarities to the US circa the 1950s? Or maybe a even better example in a western sense, is China duplicating the Roman Empire?

What I do know, is that a patriarchy will always win over a matriarchy, and I think history has always proven that point.
 
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Cambodia is the only South East Asian country that has moved against US meddling in their country, and that has made foreign financial interference in the educational and political sector illegal

Aside from Myanmar of course, which is now in a US sponsored Civil War.

 

The Beast1

Peacock
Gold Member
Could Australia, Canada, and New Zealand's insane COVID-19 measures actually be a cover for restricting the movement of their Chinese expatriate 5th column spies within their capital cities?

This wouldn't surprise me in the least because their restrictions are insanely draconian and the UK hasn't even gone that hard.
 

Samseau

Owl
Orthodox
Gold Member
and the hits keep on coming. Here is a recent headline from the globohomo "The guardian"

China to clamp down on abortions for 'non-medical purposes"

Here is the link to that rag "paper" if you care:


From reducing youths time with videogames, to closing the door to globohomo themes in its entertainment, to promoting masculinity in its education and media, to encouraging regular fitness regime's, to neutering the cosmopolitan billionaire class (ie Jack Ma), to glorifying its nation state, its ethnic people, and its history etc..

While all of these things are superficially appealing, they are no where near enough to re-establish a healthy familial patriarchal life for China. China has tons of female corruption inside of it's country, many Commie party leaders are female, females in the workplace is 100% mandatory, whoring is rampant, these are the real things that must be addressed for a patriarchy to form and healthy birthrates return.

And as you point out, a lack of God permeates their culture, which leaves them vulnerable to Satanic attacks such as Communism in the first place, which is why they are in the position they are in. But Satan is using them as an army and workforce, so, he may find ways to increase their birthrates. Look at what he can do for Muslims!
 

Thomas More

Hummingbird
Victor Gao, Vice Chairman for the Center of China & Globalisation when asked about the strategic implications of AUSUK and the transfer of US nuclear technology to Australia

Gao also used to be Deng XiaoPing's personal translator


Former US intelligence officer


Australian newspaper

View attachment 33869
China is playing hard core domination games with Australia, although they haven't actually threatened to nuke them yet like they did Japan (so far as I know).
It's fair game for Aussie newspapers to call for someone else to overthrow Xi! All's fair and all that.
 
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