The new cold war with China

China is playing hard core domination games with Australia, although they haven't actually threatened to nuke them yet like they did Japan (so far as I know).
It's fair game for Aussie newspapers to call for someone else to overthrow Xi! All's fair and all that.

Actually, China *did* threaten to nuke Australia, and that was a big part of the reason Australia is moving forward with obtaining nuclear powered attack submarines. And given time, I strongly suspect Australia will develop boomer/ballistic missile subs to launch nukes at China, should the CCP make good on their public threats.

As one American senior diplomat said, "China is in some ways its own worst enemy, with their autistic treatment of other nations!"
 

MRAll134

Pelican
So, how long until China invades Taiwan? Most experts say within 5 years. But, I am wondering if it will be in 1-3 months. Currently, Taiwan is reaching out to potential allies in the region, for military support:

US Warns China's Actions "Increase The Rise Of A Miscalculation" As Taiwan Urges 'Help' From Allies
As expected a flurry of threats and counter-threats have been issued between China, Taiwan, and the Untied States in the wake of Monday's largest ever Chinese military aircraft incursion of contested airspace near Taiwan, which saw 52 PLA jets - including bombers and reconnaissance planes - breach the self-ruled island's southwest air defense zone.

The hugely provocative formation marked four consecutive days of larger and larger PLA formations breaching the airspace, and comes the same day Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told an Australian broadcaster that Taiwan is preparing for war and wants Canberra to be more involved. The US Department of Defense responded to Monday's PLA sortie by calling out the "increasing military activities by China near Taiwan" as "destabilizing" which serve to "increase the rise of a miscalculation"

370ef8df3077aa60.png

"Our commitment to Taiwan is rock-solid and contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region," the US statement said.

*I think the Chinese see the Biden admin' as weak (it is), so might act sooner rather than later.

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...-rise-miscalculation-taiwan-urges-help-allies
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Curious what people here think about this line of argument from the Guardian:

Before war comes to the Indo-Pacific and Washington faces pressure to fight a potentially existential war, American policymakers must face the cold, hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat – and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war.

Bluntly put, America should refuse to be drawn into a no-win war with Beijing. It needs to be said up front: there would be no palatable choice for Washington if China finally makes good on its decades-long threat to take Taiwan by force. Either choose a bad, bitter-tasting outcome or a self-destructive one in which our existence is put at risk.
...
As I have previously detailed, there is no rational scenario in which the United States could end up in a better, more secure place after a war with China. The best that could be hoped for would be a pyrrhic victory in which we are saddled with becoming the permanent defense force for Taiwan (costing us hundreds of billions a year and the equally permanent requirement to be ready for the inevitable Chinese counter-attack).

The most likely outcome would be a conventional defeat of our forces in which China ultimately succeeds, despite our intervention – at the cost of large numbers of our jets being shot down, ships being sunk, and thousands of our service personnel killed. But the worst case is a conventional war spirals out of control and escalates into a nuclear exchange.

That leaves as the best option something most Americans find unsatisfying: refuse to engage in direct combat against China on behalf of Taiwan. Doing so will allow the United States to emerge on the other side of a China/Taiwan war with our global military and economic power intact.
...
That’s not to suggest we stand passively aside and let China run over Taiwan with impunity. The most effective course of action for Washington would be to condemn China in the strongest possible terms, lead a global movement that will enact crippling sanctions against Beijing, and make them an international pariah. China’s pain wouldn’t be limited to economics, however.

It would take Beijing decades to overcome the losses incurred from a war to take Taiwan, even if Beijing triumphs. The United States and our western allies, on the other hand, would remain at full military power, dominate the international business markets, and have the moral high ground to keep China hemmed in like nothing that presently exists.

I strongly disagree with the author that China's invasion of Taiwan would catalyze world opinion against them and make them easier to contain. Instead, it will likely lead to the end of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency and a gradual unraveling of the U.S. - centric alliance system as our former vassals now know we aren't willing to put our neck on the line for their survival. After Afghanistan and Crimea, most countries understand the cold hard truth that might makes right, and all of our lecturing about the rules based system doesn't actually mean anything.

Having said that, I think he's right that there's a good chance we lose the war, and if there's any possibility that it goes nuclear it's simply not worth it. Will China call our bluff?
 

MRAll134

Pelican
Curious what people here think about this line of argument from the Guardian:



I strongly disagree with the author that China's invasion of Taiwan would catalyze world opinion against them and make them easier to contain. Instead, it will likely lead to the end of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency and a gradual unraveling of the U.S. - centric alliance system as our former vassals now know we aren't willing to put our neck on the line for their survival. After Afghanistan and Crimea, most countries understand the cold hard truth that might makes right, and all of our lecturing about the rules based system doesn't actually mean anything.

Having said that, I think he's right that there's a good chance we lose the war, and if there's any possibility that it goes nuclear it's simply not worth it. Will China call our bluff?
I think if there is a war between China/Taiwan, then Biden (and his puppetmasters) will find a way to sink the U.S. Pacific Fleet. I am not joking. Everything this admin' has done has been a detriment to America and Americans e.g. the turnover of the Bagram airbase to China, opening the Southern border etc.

And now, it is not a good time for folks to be in the U.S. Armed Forces, especially the Navy.
 

Blade Runner

Ostrich
Orthodox
Curious what people here think about this line of argument from the Guardian:



I strongly disagree with the author that China's invasion of Taiwan would catalyze world opinion against them and make them easier to contain. Instead, it will likely lead to the end of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency and a gradual unraveling of the U.S. - centric alliance system as our former vassals now know we aren't willing to put our neck on the line for their survival. After Afghanistan and Crimea, most countries understand the cold hard truth that might makes right, and all of our lecturing about the rules based system doesn't actually mean anything.

Having said that, I think he's right that there's a good chance we lose the war, and if there's any possibility that it goes nuclear it's simply not worth it. Will China call our bluff?
"Crippling sanctions" will inevitably lead to China lashing out anyway, as they will try to distract their people from the realization that things will get worse, much worse, by the month, and year. They already have large, systemic energy problems currently.
 
Curious what people here think about this line of argument from the Guardian:



I strongly disagree with the author that China's invasion of Taiwan would catalyze world opinion against them and make them easier to contain. Instead, it will likely lead to the end of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency and a gradual unraveling of the U.S. - centric alliance system as our former vassals now know we aren't willing to put our neck on the line for their survival. After Afghanistan and Crimea, most countries understand the cold hard truth that might makes right, and all of our lecturing about the rules based system doesn't actually mean anything.

Having said that, I think he's right that there's a good chance we lose the war, and if there's any possibility that it goes nuclear it's simply not worth it. Will China call our bluff?

Amen. If China invades Taiwan, it will be a huge roll of the dice for both the CCP, and America and her allies, should they choose to stop China. If America simply stands aside when China attempts to conquer Taiwan, we will see American hegemony unravel, and also most likely the end of the dollar as the reserve currency. I do definitely agree with your observations. But I am sick and tired of the defeatist mentality I run across regarding how America cannot possibly win against China. The keys to victory are creating an extremely well armed Taiwan, combined with America nurturing alliances with nations like Japan, India, England, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, etc., to help us contain the CCP.

If America has one major advantage, it is our advanced submarine force, combined with the advanced subs of Japan, our ally. And considering that China lags behind in anti-submarine warfare, they will suffer severe losses at the hands of these deadly silent services. In response, China is now building an undersea sensor net around Taiwan, to try to locate such hidden threats to the PLAN.

China plans to commandeer every civilian ship/boat worth taking, to launch their invasion force. And so with a huge ragtag fleet of thousands of vessels crossing the straits, it will be like shooting fish in a barrel, but there will be just too many fish, and you will run out of bullets! One of the defensive plans of Taiwan, is to blow up the huge chemical factories near the vulnerable beaches, to create huge clouds of chemical death for the invaders. I can only assume the PLA has chemical hazard masks for their men, but considering their probably quality, I almost feel sorry for the young soldiers going into such a hugely toxic environment.

But I will say that we need more than anything, to build up Taiwan's military, so that even by themselves, they are a strong deterrent to the CCP. They need many more anti-ship, anti-missile, anti-aircraft and ground to ground missiles. And they need a large drone force, along with a fleet of small attack patrol boats to help sink an incoming invasion fleet. And finally, Taiwan is going to start building a wide variety of indigenous missiles, planes, ships and subs, and this way, like South Korea, they can take advantage of their own technological strengths. They need to shift to much more of a mobile guerilla warfare approach. And they need to do a better job training their reserve troops for an invasion. Taiwan needs to be more like Israel and Switzerland, in terms of preparing for conflict.

I dearly hope Taiwan has their own nuclear deterrent, and there are rumors that they do, which they seem to half-heartedly deny. America may not respond to a nuclear assault on Taiwan with nuclear retaliation, in a desire to avoid WWIII, and so Taiwan needs their own nuclear weaponry to keep the CCP on their toes.

I do think there is a good chance of a CCP invasion within the next two to five years. The U.S. is currently in a window of vulnerability right now, in terms of being behind in hypersonic missiles, not having Taiwan, Guam and Japan properly protected with a networked and in-depth anti-missile, and ground to ground offensive missile systems. And the next gen lasers (not to be confused with the lasers currently mounted on our warships} and rail guns have not been installed in our warships, in part due to the energy demands of them. Also, up to two hundred thousand American troops are being considered for redeployment to nations close to Taiwan, so if war happens, they can quickly be sent to the war zone. America needs roughly a decade to fully prepare for a CCP invasion, and so to attack now makes sense for China, though the longer they wait, the more weapons they can design, build and deploy. I bet Xi Jinping thinks hard about each of these variables. If he wins he gains immense glory for his personal legacy, but if he rolls the dice and fails, he gets early retirement or even imprisonment...
 
Amen. If China invades Taiwan, it will be a huge roll of the dice for both the CCP, and America and her allies, should they choose to stop China. If America simply stands aside when China attempts to conquer Taiwan, we will see American hegemony unravel, and also most likely the end of the dollar as the reserve currency. I do definitely agree with your observations. But I am sick and tired of the defeatist mentality I run across regarding how America cannot possibly win against China. The keys to victory are creating an extremely well armed Taiwan, combined with America nurturing alliances with nations like Japan, India, England, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, etc., to help us contain the CCP.

If America has one major advantage, it is our advanced submarine force, combined with the advanced subs of Japan, our ally. And considering that China lags behind in anti-submarine warfare, they will suffer severe losses at the hands of these deadly silent services. In response, China is now building an undersea sensor net around Taiwan, to try to locate such hidden threats to the PLAN.

China plans to commandeer every civilian ship/boat worth taking, to launch their invasion force. And so with a huge ragtag fleet of thousands of vessels crossing the straits, it will be like shooting fish in a barrel, but there will be just too many fish, and you will run out of bullets! One of the defensive plans of Taiwan, is to blow up the huge chemical factories near the vulnerable beaches, to create huge clouds of chemical death for the invaders. I can only assume the PLA has chemical hazard masks for their men, but considering their probably quality, I almost feel sorry for the young soldiers going into such a hugely toxic environment.

But I will say that we need more than anything, to build up Taiwan's military, so that even by themselves, they are a strong deterrent to the CCP. They need many more anti-ship, anti-missile, anti-aircraft and ground to ground missiles. And they need a large drone force, along with a fleet of small attack patrol boats to help sink an incoming invasion fleet. And finally, Taiwan is going to start building a wide variety of indigenous missiles, planes, ships and subs, and this way, like South Korea, they can take advantage of their own technological strengths. They need to shift to much more of a mobile guerilla warfare approach. And they need to do a better job training their reserve troops for an invasion. Taiwan needs to be more like Israel and Switzerland, in terms of preparing for conflict.

I dearly hope Taiwan has their own nuclear deterrent, and there are rumors that they do, which they seem to half-heartedly deny. America may not respond to a nuclear assault on Taiwan with nuclear retaliation, in a desire to avoid WWIII, and so Taiwan needs their own nuclear weaponry to keep the CCP on their toes.

I do think there is a good chance of a CCP invasion within the next two to five years. The U.S. is currently in a window of vulnerability right now, in terms of being behind in hypersonic missiles, not having Taiwan, Guam and Japan properly protected with a networked and in-depth anti-missile, and ground to ground offensive missile systems. And the next gen lasers (not to be confused with the lasers currently mounted on our warships} and rail guns have not been installed in our warships, in part due to the energy demands of them. Also, up to two hundred thousand American troops are being considered for redeployment to nations close to Taiwan, so if war happens, they can quickly be sent to the war zone. America needs roughly a decade to fully prepare for a CCP invasion, and so to attack now makes sense for China, though the longer they wait, the more weapons they can design, build and deploy. I bet Xi Jinping thinks hard about each of these variables. If he wins he gains immense glory for his personal legacy, but if he rolls the dice and fails, he gets early retirement or even imprisonment...
First of all that Guardian article by Lt. Col Davis is excellent and I think the assessment is accurate. You make some very astute points, as does Arado, however, any discussion about Taiwan engaging China has to take account of the fact that Taiwan is massively outgunned. It can not resist PLAN, PLAF or PLA. Taiwan is simply too massively outgunned, and any talk of making chemical fumes appear or Taiwan having nuclear weapons is wishful thinking at best.

Whilst the US Navy has some submarines that are technologically more advanced, the US Naval Institute itself has conceded that:

"the Navy anticipates a shortfall in fast-attack submarines spanning the years 2025 to 2041, as the Los Angeles class reaches the end of service. Meanwhile the People’s Republic of China is building the world’s largest submarine factory, a facility to build four subs at a time

A nuclear submarine is arguably a good investment if it lasts the entire expected lifespan; however, if war breaks out and submarines are lost, the U.S. Navy could not keep pace with its adversaries, economically or industrially."

In other words, it is a similar conundrum the Germans faced in WWII, with airplanes that were far advanced, but still losing the battle of Britain against an RAF that was using wooden planes, but had more of them.

In addition the Diesel submarines of today are not the same as the ones of old, and technology is improving signficantly, German Type 212 submarines can stay underwater without snorkeling for up to three weeks, traveling 1,500 miles (2,400 kilometers) or more. In fact nuclear submarines have a much larger infrared signature because they require pumps to cool constantly to ensure the reactor is safe and to pump water into the ocean. In some respects Diesel submarines have an advantage over nuclear subs. Gotland, a Swedish AIP submarine, “sank” many U.S. nuclear fast-attack subs, destroyers, frigates, cruisers, and even the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) aircraft carrier in joint exercises.


Also, bear in mind Diesel submarines can be used in anti-submarine warfare, but China has many other options of anti-submarine warfare, with China being one giant aircraft carrier in the region, and significant A2AD capabilities.

Finally the risk of the war escalating into a nuclear conflict is by no means far-fetched, if we recall the Cuban missile crisis, where such a war was averted by a mere hair's breadth.
 

Easy_C

Peacock
I think there's some misunderstanding of what causes a "reserve currency". It isn't military hegemony (although that helps). What causes a reserve currency is the existence of a huge depth of market and legal stability in that currency.

A few reasons why the US is:
  1. Massive depth of market, much larger than any other currency (in turn a result of the robust consumer economy)
  2. Legal stability: The US is the only first world currency that has not experienced currency cancellations. A bill from 1950 is still legal tender today (although in practice collectable value might be higher for some old notes).
  3. No wealth confiscations: the US, unlike other countries where hyperinflation occurred, has not passed a wealth tax.

What would end the USD as the reserve currency wouldn't be Taiwan. It's going to be if the USA passes this wealth tax and/or implements this digital only currency they want AND China continues to maintain paper currency.

Afghanistan was the same way. There was zero confidence in the government currency so most locals preferred physical US Dollars. The same thing could happen here, much more easily than anybody thinks, where nobody trusts Fedcoin and most prefer paper Chinese currency.
 

MRAll134

Pelican
WWIII could be coming before Christmas. 2021 is beyond exciting!

In case you did not know, JP is former Navy Intel' and has a lot of contacts within the intelligence agencies. He is a reliable source, imo.

39fee2fefd032296.jpg
 

dicknixon72

Pelican
Attack Submarine USS Connecticut Suffers Underwater Collision in South China Sea

Almost a dozen sailors have been injured after a U.S. nuclear attack submarine hit an unknown underwater object in the South China Sea, USNI News has learned.

The Seawolf-class nuclear attack submarine USS Connecticut (SSN-22) suffered an underwater collision while operating in international waters on Oct. 2 and is returning to port in U.S. 7th Fleet, a U.S. Pacific Fleet spokesman confirmed to USNI News on Thursday.

“The Seawolf-class fast-attack submarine USS Connecticut (SSN-22) struck an object while submerged on the afternoon of Oct. 2, while operating in international waters in the Indo-Pacific region. The safety of the crew remains the Navy’s top priority. There are no life-threatening injuries,” Capt. Bill Clinton told USNI News.
“The submarine remains in a safe and stable condition. USS Connecticut’s nuclear propulsion plant and spaces were not affected and remain fully operational. The extent of damage to the remainder of the submarine is being assessed. The U.S. Navy has not requested assistance. The incident will be investigated.”

A defense official told USNI News about 11 sailors were hurt in the incident with moderate to minor injuries. The attack boat is now headed to Guam and is expected to pull in within the next day, the official said. The underwater strike occurred in the South China Sea and the attack boat has been making its way to Guam on the surface since Saturday, a defense official confirmed to USNI News.

The Naval Base Kitsap-Bremerton, Wash., based submarine deployed on May 27 for the Pacific, the Navy announced at the time. The service has released photographs of the submarine operating in the Western Pacific with port calls in Japan in late July and August. U.S. 7th Fleet commander Adm. Karl Thomas visited the submarine in August, according to the service.

Connecticut is one of three Sea Wolf-class boats, a late Cold War attack submarine designed to hunt the most complex Soviet submarines in deep blue water. Along with USS Sea Wolf (SSN-21) and USS Jimmy Carter (SSN-23), Connecticut is among the Navy’s most capable and sensitive attack boats.

The last known instance where a submerged U.S. submarine struck another underwater object was in 2005. Then, USS San Franciso (SSN -711) struck an underwater mountain at full speed near Guam. One sailor died in the incident.

The following is the complete Oct. 7 statement from Pacific Fleet.

The Seawolf-class fast-attack submarine USS Connecticut (SSN 22) struck an object while submerged on the afternoon of Oct. 2, while operating in international waters in the Indo-Pacific region. The safety of the crew remains the Navy’s top priority. There are no life-threatening injuries.

The submarine remains in a safe and stable condition. USS Connecticut’s nuclear propulsion plant and spaces were not affected and remain fully operational. The extent of damage to the remainder of the submarine is being assessed. The U.S. Navy has not requested assistance. The incident will be investigated.”
 

La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
So today it was leaked to the public that there are at least 24 and possibly hundreds of US soldiers in Taiwan - apparently for 'training purposes'

That's the same Taiwan that the US, through its 'One China Policy', considers legitimate Chinese (PRC) territory

This knowledge was most probably already known to the Chinese.



Screenshot_20211008_212631.jpgIMG_20211008_212616_648.jpg
 
First of all that Guardian article by Lt. Col Davis is excellent and I think the assessment is accurate. You make some very astute points, as does Arado, however, any discussion about Taiwan engaging China has to take account of the fact that Taiwan is massively outgunned. It can not resist PLAN, PLAF or PLA. Taiwan is simply too massively outgunned, and any talk of making chemical fumes appear or Taiwan having nuclear weapons is wishful thinking at best.

Whilst the US Navy has some submarines that are technologically more advanced, the US Naval Institute itself has conceded that:

"the Navy anticipates a shortfall in fast-attack submarines spanning the years 2025 to 2041, as the Los Angeles class reaches the end of service. Meanwhile the People’s Republic of China is building the world’s largest submarine factory, a facility to build four subs at a time

A nuclear submarine is arguably a good investment if it lasts the entire expected lifespan; however, if war breaks out and submarines are lost, the U.S. Navy could not keep pace with its adversaries, economically or industrially."

In other words, it is a similar conundrum the Germans faced in WWII, with airplanes that were far advanced, but still losing the battle of Britain against an RAF that was using wooden planes, but had more of them.

In addition the Diesel submarines of today are not the same as the ones of old, and technology is improving signficantly, German Type 212 submarines can stay underwater without snorkeling for up to three weeks, traveling 1,500 miles (2,400 kilometers) or more. In fact nuclear submarines have a much larger infrared signature because they require pumps to cool constantly to ensure the reactor is safe and to pump water into the ocean. In some respects Diesel submarines have an advantage over nuclear subs. Gotland, a Swedish AIP submarine, “sank” many U.S. nuclear fast-attack subs, destroyers, frigates, cruisers, and even the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) aircraft carrier in joint exercises.


Also, bear in mind Diesel submarines can be used in anti-submarine warfare, but China has many other options of anti-submarine warfare, with China being one giant aircraft carrier in the region, and significant A2AD capabilities.

Finally the risk of the war escalating into a nuclear conflict is by no means far-fetched, if we recall the Cuban missile crisis, where such a war was averted by a mere hair's breadth.

The U.S. should not only be working on their own diesel subs designs and construction, but in the meantime buy some from friends such as Sweden and Germany. We just need to base such subs in areas such as Japan or Guam, so they don't use up to much fuel and time getting to their target areas. As for right now, we should reach out to allies who already have diesel electric subs, and ask them to join the cause and station them in areas close to China.

But keep in mind that undersea drones will be used to greatly expand the eyes and killing power of nuclear attack subs. And this will neutralize some/much of the advantage of the diesel subs. A war with China will really show what drones can do, for both sides...

Yes, Taiwan is massively outgunned, and yet still, even just on their own, they could offer fairly strong resistance, for at least a time. And especially once Taiwan mobilizes their large home turf advantage, their massive army reserve infantry forces, the CCP will have a prolonged land battle fight on their hands. And the ground conflict will be in urban and mountain environments, which are among the worst for an invader to have to overcome. If Taiwan were on their own, they would eventually be doomed in a fight with the CCP, but with America, Japan, India, England and other nations willing to come to their aid, they just need to hang in there until help arrives.
 
The U.S. should not only be working on their own diesel subs designs and construction, but in the meantime buy some from friends such as Sweden and Germany. We just need to base such subs in areas such as Japan or Guam, so they don't use up to much fuel and time getting to their target areas. As for right now, we should reach out to allies who already have diesel electric subs, and ask them to join the cause and station them in areas close to China.

But keep in mind that undersea drones will be used to greatly expand the eyes and killing power of nuclear attack subs. And this will neutralize some/much of the advantage of the diesel subs. A war with China will really show what drones can do, for both sides...

Yes, Taiwan is massively outgunned, and yet still, even just on their own, they could offer fairly strong resistance, for at least a time. And especially once Taiwan mobilizes their large home turf advantage, their massive army reserve infantry forces, the CCP will have a prolonged land battle fight on their hands. And the ground conflict will be in urban and mountain environments, which are among the worst for an invader to have to overcome. If Taiwan were on their own, they would eventually be doomed in a fight with the CCP, but with America, Japan, India, England and other nations willing to come to their aid, they just need to hang in there until help arrives.
You're absolutely right that taking an island with the terrain of Taiwan would not be easy for an invading army, I've been to Taiwan, it is extremely mountainous in parts. Having said that, history shows that as a general rule the party that wins the armed conflict is the one with the greater number of materiel, barring a supreme technological advantage which neither Taiwan nor any of its allies have over China currently. Given China's proximity to Taiwan and the PLA's current numbers, even if Taiwan were to resist for a while in the mountains the conclusion is most likely going to favour China. This is not a situation similar to say Germany invading Russia, the invaders are Chinese themselves. And whilst the Taiwan ruling elite talks of brave resistance it is questionable if the Taiwanese-Chinese soldiers at large, faced with the overwhelming odds of China would not just lay down arms before an invader who is after all, like them, Chinese.

I also doubt that counting on countries like England, which currently can not provide fuel or meat in adequate quantities to its own people , or Japan, which has a distinct lack of submarine capabilities will make any difference. You're of course right, that this is indeed the policy currently being pursued by Biden, he is trying to make Australia and the UK ramp up their submarine capabilities in the region, but England, Australia and Japan will be of extremely limited use as allies in a war with China.

I totally agree with you that new technology like underwater drones will come into play and could make a difference. However, this works both ways, the Chinese also will be able to use underwater drones for anti-submarine warfare, as well as their large numbers of Diesel subs, aircraft. In addition US experts have conceded that the anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) weapons of China could pose problems for US forces in the region. Whilst submarines can engage Chinese vessels approaching Taiwan, to defend Taiwan on the ground submarines alone will simply not suffice, troops would have to be on the ground. Navy forces that do not have the stealth advantage are extremely vulnerable to China's A2/AD weapons.

However, ultimately this could all be academic, because if political leaders do not have the will to fight, well then weapons systems make no difference. And we saw with General Milley that it's not just the US political establishment, with even Trump confirming he never intended to strike China, but it would also appear that the top US generals are going out of their way to avoid military conflict with China if we look at what General Milley did.

"I want to assure you that the American government is stable and everything is going to be okay ... We are not going to attack or conduct any kinetic operations against you ... If we're going to attack, I'm going to call you ahead of time. It's not going to be a surprise."

This does not sound like the US military leadership is keen on war with China.


Similarly why would China risk a confrontation that, even if it were to win, could ensure its economy is destroyed? When it can proceed to build its silk road, grow its economy and eventually get the hegemony it wants without war? Maybe Xi Jinping is that crazy, you never know, but it just seems highly unlikely.
 

Hansel

Robin
Recent photo leak on the Sino-Indian border skirmish at Galwan Valley in June 2020:

6E01AA28-998A-493A-896C-430D157C08DF.jpeg
A column of captured Indian soldiers marches in defeat amidst the supervision of a PLA company.

10202553-DC3E-4B52-8EFC-BE308821A884.jpeg
The surviving Lieutenant Colonel of the Indian forces signs the surrender of his forces with a thumbprint, with his shoulder mark torn but barely recognizable. The first-in-command, Colonel Santosh Babu, was clubbed to death in the preceding scuffle.
 

La Águila Negra

Ostrich
Protestant
Diagnosing American Political Schizophrenia

Fascinating article on the architect of Chinas anti-gay, anti-feminist, anti-corporate, and American style “Census Form Nationalism” crackdowns happening right now.

The man who inspired these crackdowns was a sociologist who studied America and diagnosed homosexuality, individualism, unrestricted markets, multi-racialism, and cosmopolitanism as responsible for the USA's decline.


 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
But I am sick and tired of the defeatist mentality I run across regarding how America cannot possibly win against China. The keys to victory are creating an extremely well armed Taiwan, combined with America nurturing alliances with nations like Japan, India, England, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, etc., to help us contain the CCP.
While the U.S. has lost to China in the majority of war games, I think there is a chance to win, but the question is whether we have the will. Neither the far right nor the left views China as the enemy, it's largely just the neocons. How much of America's establishment center is really willing to risk nuclear war for Taiwan, not to mention the otherwise tens of thousands of deaths and likely hyperinflation that would result within the first few months.

Is it worth nuclear war? If China sinks a few aircraft carrier battle groups are you 100% sure that Kamala won't push the button out of rage and embarrassment?

I think there's some misunderstanding of what causes a "reserve currency". It isn't military hegemony (although that helps). What causes a reserve currency is the existence of a huge depth of market and legal stability in that currency.

A few reasons why the US is:
  1. Massive depth of market, much larger than any other currency (in turn a result of the robust consumer economy)
  2. Legal stability: The US is the only first world currency that has not experienced currency cancellations. A bill from 1950 is still legal tender today (although in practice collectable value might be higher for some old notes).
  3. No wealth confiscations: the US, unlike other countries where hyperinflation occurred, has not passed a wealth tax.

What would end the USD as the reserve currency wouldn't be Taiwan. It's going to be if the USA passes this wealth tax and/or implements this digital only currency they want AND China continues to maintain paper currency.

Afghanistan was the same way. There was zero confidence in the government currency so most locals preferred physical US Dollars. The same thing could happen here, much more easily than anybody thinks, where nobody trusts Fedcoin and most prefer paper Chinese currency.
Reserve currencies are not based on military might but rather stability and its role in global finance but a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will accelerate the dollar's demise as the world's reserve currency. If China takes Taiwan and the U.S. does absolutely nothing, then the USD will still be the reserve currency in the short term. However, it will expose the United States as a military paper tiger and any country that was contemplating doing trade in anything other than dollars will likely accelerate their plans. Remember, the whole reason why the dollar maintained its reserve currency status after leaving the gold standard was because we came to an agreement with Saudi that they would sell their oil in dollars and invest the rest in U.S. treasuries in exchange for military protection. If our ability to protect our friends comes into doubt then there is less value in holding dollars that are losing 5% per year. If you check the inflation thread, there are a lot of posts about foreigners already ditching treasuries in their foreign reserves.

The alternative scenario is after China invades Taiwan, the U.S. enacts crippling sanctions on China and cuts their access to the SWIFT system. China will then have to find an alternative mechanism to trade globally. They are the top trading partner of most nations now and so all of these trading relationships will then take place with some other currency or perhaps with gold as a settlement mechanism.

trade-timelapse-usa-china_comparison-c46d.jpg


If the U.S. were to decisively defeat China then perhaps that would buy the dollar a bit more time, but what are the chances of that?

A fair point:

 

eradicator

Peacock
Agnostic
Gold Member
While the U.S. has lost to China in the majority of war games, I think there is a chance to win, but the question is whether we have the will. Neither the far right nor the left views China as the enemy, it's largely just the neocons. How much of America's establishment center is really willing to risk nuclear war for Taiwan, not to mention the otherwise tens of thousands of deaths and likely hyperinflation that would result within the first few months.

Is it worth nuclear war? If China sinks a few aircraft carrier battle groups are you 100% sure that Kamala won't push the button out of rage

It doesn’t work that way. There is a nuclear football with codes, the president has one set and while the President is the only person who can issue a first strike nuclear attack, it must be deemed a lawful order and not violate the laws of armed conflict. (Geneva convention and whatnot)

If the President (trump, Biden, Kamala whoever) started issuing orders out of the blue to nuke China, or any other country we aren’t at war with then the joint chiefs, military generals would have no choice not to launch the nukes.

 
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