The new cold war with China

Caduceus

Pelican
It has been said that the only time, due to weather, that the Chinese can attack/invade Taiwan are Sep/Oct and March-May. It was interesting when I read that.

Then it's already too late for an invasion in 2021.

Would have to have started in late August.

I'm assuming that these windows of possible attack/invasion are mostly based on the yearly typhoon seasons that hit Taiwan.
 
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Transsimian

Ostrich
Gold Member
I'm assuming that these windows of possible attack/invasion are mostly based on the yearly typhoon seasons that hit Taiwan.
Here's what a PLA manual says:

海区自然条件影响大,难以把握登陆时机。 海区内潮汐涨落、海流走向、涌浪大小,流走向、涌浪大小、风力,强弱等复杂水文和多变气象状况, 海岸线地形、底质、 坡度等地理环境, 尤其是大风,大浪,大雾,雷雨,低云等不良天气对抢滩上上陆时射击、破障、抵滩等行动将带来极大的困难,将影响到登陆时机的选择甚至影响到成败
“It is difficult to grasp the right time for landing operations. The tides inside the (Taiwan Strait) area, the direction of the currents, the size of the waves, and the strength of the winds would all have a complex and ever-changing impact on the situation; so too would the shape of the coast, its composition, height, and steepness. Factors such as strong winds, large waves, thick fog, torrential rains, low clouds, and other unfavorable weather conditions would make it extremely difficult to fire, break through obstacles, and capture beaches during the landing phase. All these considerations would affect the time chosen to make landings. They would even impact our overall success or failure.”
 
A former DoD official said we would lose a cyber war with China.


Does anyone know if China has an equivalent to Area 51?

Considering how in recent years the CCP has over and over again had the jump on CIA overseas operations, and also been very successful identifying and killing those Chinese who cooperate with the CIA, it seems very evident that they can routinely hack the CIA computer networks to get what they want, which I find horrifying. I get the feeling from CIA promotional videos, that they are not the legendary CIA of old, but instead a bureaucracy of 9 to 5 cubicle drone workers who are painfully failing in their mission. It is now the NSA and DIA who hold the real torches for American espionage and counter espionage efforts.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Here's what a PLA manual says:

海区自然条件影响大,难以把握登陆时机。 海区内潮汐涨落、海流走向、涌浪大小,流走向、涌浪大小、风力,强弱等复杂水文和多变气象状况, 海岸线地形、底质、 坡度等地理环境, 尤其是大风,大浪,大雾,雷雨,低云等不良天气对抢滩上上陆时射击、破障、抵滩等行动将带来极大的困难,将影响到登陆时机的选择甚至影响到成败
“It is difficult to grasp the right time for landing operations. The tides inside the (Taiwan Strait) area, the direction of the currents, the size of the waves, and the strength of the winds would all have a complex and ever-changing impact on the situation; so too would the shape of the coast, its composition, height, and steepness. Factors such as strong winds, large waves, thick fog, torrential rains, low clouds, and other unfavorable weather conditions would make it extremely difficult to fire, break through obstacles, and capture beaches during the landing phase. All these considerations would affect the time chosen to make landings. They would even impact our overall success or failure.”

I could be wrong but I highly doubt a Chinese invasion would look like D Day with tens of thousands of men crossing the channel on landing craft, far more likely they'll use the Russian playbook from Crimea and Georgia which is also pretty similar to the globohomo playbook from Libya. Safe to assume they already have thousands of sleeper agents in place waiting for the green light to start stirring up civil unrest with the goal of dragging the island into chaos and seizing key airfields which the PLA can then use to land troops unopposed to "keep the peace". This is preferable to a traditional invasion for the Chinese for a few reasons, in no particular order:

-Much safer for their own forces, most of whom are only children. They can churn out as much domestic nationalist propaganda as they want but the CCP will risk quickly losing the support of their own people if they send tens of thousands of only sons into a meat grinder trying to take Taiwan. IMO this is a big reason--more than a shrinking population--they've loosened up the one child policy but they won't see the benefits from that for a while (it was only expanded to 2 kids for Han parents about 5 years ago)

-Minimizes civilian casualties and infrastructure damage both in Taiwan and by destabilizing and distracting the Taiwanese military, in the mainland as well. Not that the CCP is afraid of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, but they would certainly prefer to avoid them if possible in order to best incorporate Taiwan into the mainland

-By not launching an overtly kinetic military invasion, they make it more likely that the US will stay out of the war by giving US leadership the opportunity to wash their hands of it and say "look, the Taiwanese government was collapsing and they're just peacekeeping troops" while saving face domestically
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
It doesn’t work that way. There is a nuclear football with codes, the president has one set and while the President is the only person who can issue a first strike nuclear attack, it must be deemed a lawful order and not violate the laws of armed conflict. (Geneva convention and whatnot)

If the President (trump, Biden, Kamala whoever) started issuing orders out of the blue to nuke China, or any other country we aren’t at war with then the joint chiefs, military generals would have no choice not to launch the nukes.

If we are defending Taiwan from Chinese invasion we're pretty much at war with them. I don't know if the process you describe here will block an order from a President after thousands of U.S. casualties. While far fetched, it is what happens in this novel and the probability of the President deciding to launch a nuke after a major naval loss is not zero. Not worth it, or at least not worth it until we're a multi planet species.
 
If we are defending Taiwan from Chinese invasion we're pretty much at war with them. I don't know if the process you describe here will block an order from a President after thousands of U.S. casualties. While far fetched, it is what happens in this novel and the probability of the President deciding to launch a nuke after a major naval loss is not zero. Not worth it, or at least not worth it until we're a multi planet species.

When it comes to nukes, the U.S. and Russia tried to deal with it, by saying that there was an "intermediate" state where the battlefield commanders, with approval from their head of state, could use tactical nukes (as soon as you start seriously losing the war...). But of course it is a slippery slope where things can quickly escalate into strategic nukes being used for a classic WWIII scenario.

I could definitely see the CCP authorizing their military commanders to use tactical nukes at land and sea, if the war goes badly for China. It could be seen as a means to save face, despite the risks of reprisal.
 
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I could be wrong but I highly doubt a Chinese invasion would look like D Day with tens of thousands of men crossing the channel on landing craft, far more likely they'll use the Russian playbook from Crimea and Georgia which is also pretty similar to the globohomo playbook from Libya. Safe to assume they already have thousands of sleeper agents in place waiting for the green light to start stirring up civil unrest with the goal of dragging the island into chaos and seizing key airfields which the PLA can then use to land troops unopposed to "keep the peace". This is preferable to a traditional invasion for the Chinese for a few reasons, in no particular order:

-Much safer for their own forces, most of whom are only children. They can churn out as much domestic nationalist propaganda as they want but the CCP will risk quickly losing the support of their own people if they send tens of thousands of only sons into a meat grinder trying to take Taiwan. IMO this is a big reason--more than a shrinking population--they've loosened up the one child policy but they won't see the benefits from that for a while (it was only expanded to 2 kids for Han parents about 5 years ago)

-Minimizes civilian casualties and infrastructure damage both in Taiwan and by destabilizing and distracting the Taiwanese military, in the mainland as well. Not that the CCP is afraid of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, but they would certainly prefer to avoid them if possible in order to best incorporate Taiwan into the mainland

-By not launching an overtly kinetic military invasion, they make it more likely that the US will stay out of the war by giving US leadership the opportunity to wash their hands of it and say "look, the Taiwanese government was collapsing and they're just peacekeeping troops" while saving face domestically

Actually, what you discuss here is simply stage one of a CCP invasion. They would almost assuredly have thousands of sleeper agents in place to attempt assassinations of various national leaders, blow up key power stations, radar stations, etc, capture important facilities such as air fields (most likely by taking hostages to keep defenders at bay), and to generally create chaos and fear, long before a proper invasion from the sea arrives.

But doing these things alone, without a soon to follow sea invasion, will not capture Taiwan for China. Doing this alone would certainly terrorize Taiwan for a time, but the Taiwanese military and police forces would reassert control and the CCP saboteurs would be killed or captured. And so what you described will be the softening up phase, before the missiles rain down, and the CCP Air Force attacks to attain air dominance over Taiwan. And then once that is done, elite troops in the tens of thousands can be flown to captured air fields without the active threat of being shot down. Finally, a massive sea invasion will be mounted by China, once Taiwan is in a weakened state and the order is given.

The early CCP troops having arrived by plane to captured air fields, will have the fight of their lives, when they must carry out their objectives despite being overwhelmingly outnumbered by the Taiwanese troops and security forces.

There will be no sneaky "keeping the peace" situation for the CCP to impose on Taiwan, or at least not a successful one. Everyone would see right through it. If China wants to conquer Taiwan, they will have to embrace victory through an "overtly kinetic military invasion." And Xi Jinping has said many times that he is preparing his nation for just such a war.
 

Transsimian

Ostrich
Gold Member
I could be wrong but I highly doubt a Chinese invasion would look like D Day with tens of thousands of men crossing the channel on landing craft, far more likely they'll use the Russian playbook from Crimea and Georgia which is also pretty similar to the globohomo playbook from Libya. Safe to assume they already have thousands of sleeper agents in place waiting for the green light to start stirring up civil unrest with the goal of dragging the island into chaos and seizing key airfields which the PLA can then use to land troops unopposed to "keep the peace". This is preferable to a traditional invasion for the Chinese for a few reasons, in no particular order:
One side has tens of thousands of 台商 "Businessmen" living there, in Fujian province arguably more linguistically and culturally similar to Taiwan than it is to Beijing, who have local connections and knowledge, along with potentially all the CIA's experience in regime change.

The other side has some wives who married a Taiwanese man, and some carefully watched international students.
Who should be more worried about sabotage and troublemaking? This is especially true if the CCP invades as a distraction from an economic or social crisis. If I was President Tsai, I would be more worried about them doing informal reconaisance, as that might reveal which targets are worth hitting.

Actually, what you discuss here is simply stage one of a CCP invasion. They would almost assuredly have thousands of sleeper agents in place to attempt assassinations of various national leaders, blow up key power stations, radar stations, etc, capture important facilities such as air fields (most likely by taking hostages to keep defenders at bay), and to generally create chaos and fear, long before a proper invasion from the sea arrives.

But doing these things alone, without a soon to follow sea invasion, will not capture Taiwan for China. Doing this alone would certainly terrorize Taiwan for a time, but the Taiwanese military and police forces would reassert control and the CCP saboteurs would be killed or captured. And so what you described will be the softening up phase, before the missiles rain down, and the CCP Air Force attacks to attain air dominance over Taiwan. And then once that is done, elite troops in the tens of thousands can be flown to captured air fields without the active threat of being shot down. Finally, a massive sea invasion will be mounted by China, once Taiwan is in a weakened state and the order is given.

The early CCP troops having arrived by plane to captured air fields, will have the fight of their lives, when they must carry out their objectives despite being overwhelmingly outnumbered by the Taiwanese troops and security forces.

There will be no sneaky "keeping the peace" situation for the CCP to impose on Taiwan, or at least not a successful one. Everyone would see right through it. If China wants to conquer Taiwan, they will have to embrace victory through an "overtly kinetic military invasion." And Xi Jinping has said many times that he is preparing his nation for just such a war.
Sea skimming aircraft and helicopters are actually a plausible way to infiltrate Taiwan, but they won't be able to bring much equipment and will be easily swamped.

As for paratroopers, at the best of times, it's a ridiculously hard thing to do, even with experienced troops who train regularly. Sustained land missile strikes would kill static defences and paralyze Taiwan's airforce, and give CCP aircraft a window to swarm mobile anti air. But when their rockets run out, the ROC airforce will come out of its nuke proof bunkers to hunt and kill the slow Chinese transports.

As an aside, the official numbers for Taiwan's A2A missiles are quite low, if I was their defense minister, I'd buy a lot more, since proximity allows each plane to perform more missions in a given time.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Actually, what you discuss here is simply stage one of a CCP invasion. They would almost assuredly have thousands of sleeper agents in place to attempt assassinations of various national leaders, blow up key power stations, radar stations, etc, capture important facilities such as air fields (most likely by taking hostages to keep defenders at bay), and to generally create chaos and fear, long before a proper invasion from the sea arrives.

But doing these things alone, without a soon to follow sea invasion, will not capture Taiwan for China. Doing this alone would certainly terrorize Taiwan for a time, but the Taiwanese military and police forces would reassert control and the CCP saboteurs would be killed or captured. And so what you described will be the softening up phase, before the missiles rain down, and the CCP Air Force attacks to attain air dominance over Taiwan. And then once that is done, elite troops in the tens of thousands can be flown to captured air fields without the active threat of being shot down. Finally, a massive sea invasion will be mounted by China, once Taiwan is in a weakened state and the order is given.

The early CCP troops having arrived by plane to captured air fields, will have the fight of their lives, when they must carry out their objectives despite being overwhelmingly outnumbered by the Taiwanese troops and security forces.

There will be no sneaky "keeping the peace" situation for the CCP to impose on Taiwan, or at least not a successful one. Everyone would see right through it. If China wants to conquer Taiwan, they will have to embrace victory through an "overtly kinetic military invasion." And Xi Jinping has said many times that he is preparing his nation for just such a war.

Mostly don't disagree, what I was describing is the CCP best case scenario from their perspective. Destabilize the Taiwanese government while sabotaging air and artillery assets, throw the island into chaos and use it as distraction to seize airfields and ports which they can then use to bring in troops and materiel mostly unopposed. We know it as the color revolution playbook or the little green men playbook depending on who's running it but it's pretty similar and I expect China will do the same thing, Russia and GAE both eventually sent in ground forces to Ukraine/Georgia and Libya/Syria respectively anyway as China would plan to do too. But in China's case it's trickier and much more important to get the softening up part right because a heavily contested amphibious invasion against a first world military is a hell of a lot more difficult than anything either Russia or globohomo has attempted recently.

They don't need the west to absolutely believe the peacekeeping forces story....they just need to give western "leaders" (many of whom like Biden are on their payroll anyway along with the media in these countries) something they can use as justification for their domestic audience. Mix in some SJW language ("opposing the CCP and Chinese sovereignty is white supremacy" etc) and you're all set.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Kingfisher
Gold Member
One side has tens of thousands of 台商 "Businessmen" living there, in Fujian province arguably more linguistically and culturally similar to Taiwan than it is to Beijing, who have local connections and knowledge, along with potentially all the CIA's experience in regime change.

The other side has some wives who married a Taiwanese man, and some carefully watched international students.
Who should be more worried about sabotage and troublemaking? This is especially true if the CCP invades as a distraction from an economic or social crisis. If I was President Tsai, I would be more worried about them doing informal reconaisance, as that might reveal which targets are worth hitting.

There are without a doubt far more PRC operatives in Taiwan than vice versa and many Taiwanese operatives in the mainland are likely already known to the CCP and are being allowed to continue to operate under surveillance.
 

dicknixon72

Pelican
As for paratroopers, at the best of times, it's a ridiculously hard thing to do, even with experienced troops who train regularly. Sustained land missile strikes would kill static defences and paralyze Taiwan's airforce, and give CCP aircraft a window to swarm mobile anti air. But when their rockets run out, the ROC airforce will come out of its nuke proof bunkers to hunt and kill the slow Chinese transports.

Large-scale paratrooper operations are a thing of the past, especially with hardened AA defenses that the Taiwanese possess.
 

Transsimian

Ostrich
Gold Member
France finance minister signals that the time has come for the EU to detach from the warmongers in Washington+ London and engage rather than confront China.


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Good article from Strategic Culture.


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Darren J. Beattie featured in Russia Today.


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Timing is not a coincidence.


Joint Russian-Chinese military drills in the Far East.


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A second gas pipeline will be build to China. Negotiations about pipelines are also in rather advanced stages about a Sakhalin-Hokkaido pipeline, and an Vladivostok-Seoul pipeline. In addition to that there will be a vast amount of liquid LNG stations to supply the Northern Route.

Thereby pulling these East Asian states into the orbit of the SCO and the underlying China-Russia alliance.

Screenshot_20211015_094804.jpg

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The first part of Pan Asia Railway Network has been completed, linking Vientiane/Boten to Kunming (not sure what part has been completed).

The biggest obstacle was getting rid of all the unexploded ordnance the US left behind in their dirty illegal war 50 years ago.


Screenshot_20211015_100020.jpgScreenshot_20211015_095837.jpgimages (26).jpg
 
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Recent photo leak on the Sino-Indian border skirmish at Galwan Valley in June 2020:

View attachment 34129
A column of captured Indian soldiers marches in defeat amidst the supervision of a PLA company.

View attachment 34127
The surviving Lieutenant Colonel of the Indian forces signs the surrender of his forces with a thumbprint, with his shoulder mark torn but barely recognizable. The first-in-command, Colonel Santosh Babu, was clubbed to death in the preceding scuffle.

Yep, the Chinese hadn't made any of this public to preserve what was left of the bilateral India-China ties.

It was only after the Indian media started babbling about dozens of Chinese prisoners of war and a sound Indian victory that these images and videos were released.
 
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Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
If you look at the whole issue as "what is the benefit to America", the obvious motivational calculus of sending millions of young American men to die to defend gay marriage in a country 10.000 km away instantly reveals it to be a sham about 100x worse than "we must bring democracy to Afghanistan" and "we must stop Gadaffi's soldiers from using Viagra to rape".

But let's assume that somehow, on some cuckoo planet, starting a war with China over Taiwan would be "beneficial to the USA".

Why would you, as a citizen of USA or any western country, want anything that's "beneficial to the USA" to begin with?

The USA as it currently exists is a brutal communist dictatorship that oppresses its own citizens and treats them as terrorists. Voice a wrong opinion about race or tranny pronouns, and you'll find yourself banned from flying, banking and the internet. Be an exemplary citizen who works hard and pays their taxes, only to see these taxes used to fund population replacement with brown people from all over the world and to have your children hauled off at gunpoint to be raped and genitally mutilated. Take a walk in the park minding your business, only to be murdered by the state's paramilitary forces just for fun. Politely decline to be injected with experimental medical substances and find yourself banned from everywhere, including work, and branded a disease-spreading cockroach.

There isn't a single redeeming feature about the current iteration of the USA; therefore, asking questions like "what does USA get out of this" is simply self-defeating.
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
Diagnosing American Political Schizophrenia

Fascinating article on the architect of Chinas anti-gay, anti-feminist, anti-corporate, and American style “Census Form Nationalism” crackdowns happening right now.

The man who inspired these crackdowns was a sociologist who studied America and diagnosed homosexuality, individualism, unrestricted markets, multi-racialism, and cosmopolitanism as responsible for the USA's decline.


This is a very interesting and insightful article on the USA vs China trajectory and how it's likely to turn out in the future. Recommend everyone to read it.
 
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