Interesting article. I don't see the prediction. Here are the closing paragraphs:This is a very interesting and insightful article on the USA vs China trajectory and how it's likely to turn out in the future. Recommend everyone to read it.
The best simple proxy to measure this effort in coming years is likely to be demographics. For reasons not entirely clear, many countries around the world now face the same challenge: fertility rates that have fallen below the replacement rate as they’ve developed into advanced economies. This has occurred across a diverse array of political systems, and shows little sign of moderating. Besides immigration, a wide range of policies have now been tried in attempts to raise birth rates, from increased public funding of childcare services to “pro-natal” tax credits for families with children. None have been consistently successful, sparking anguished debate in some quarters on whether losing the will to survive and reproduce is simply a fundamental factor of modernity. But if any country can succeed in reversing this trend, no matter the brute-force effort required, it is likely to be China.
Either way, our world is witnessing a grand experiment that’s now underway: China and the West, facing very similar societal problems, have now, thanks to Wang Huning, embarked on radically different approaches to addressing them. And with China increasingly challenging the United States for a position of global geopolitical and ideological leadership, the conclusion of this experiment could very well shape the global future of governance for the century ahead.
Not entirely clear? Baby boom in the "West" and exportation of western culture = ascendant women (you could add gays here too) = no fertility. If you are a non westerner and you have low fertility rates as a country it is because of war, famine, or communist policies like 1 child (and famine). Africa and India are examples of non western countries with exploding populations in the meanwhile.
Again, the issue with fertility is women needing men in a society. Right or wrong (the western stupidly asks this question because of dumb ideas like "fairness"), that's the only way for women to actually have children and families. The experiment has been done; we know the results.