The Russian-Ukrainian War of 2022 (News and battle updates only)

[911]

Gen. Milley says Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine: sources

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told lawmakers that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine took place, multiple congressional sources tell Fox News.

www.foxnews.com

There is a split in the Biden administration, between the ideologue neocons, who have the upper hand, and the realists like Milley, who are not technically pro-peace, but who now fully understand that Ukraine is going to lose big, and that NATO can't change the outcome, doubling down will just result in a bigger setback. So Milley and co are pushing for a settlement. His statement above should be interpreted in this sense.

 

[TruckDriver9]

February 10 - follow up drone strikes.

"Explosion Odessa."

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"Dnepropetrovsk region - air defense is working."

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"Explosions are heard in the Nikolaev region and Odessa."

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"Russian Geran-2s are operating over the south of Ukraine."

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"Explosions in Kramatorsk."

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"Ukrainian publications write about a new batch of UAVs from the Sea of Azov."

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"Zaporozhye explosions."

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"New explosions in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhye region, Geraniums are working."

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"Gerans flew to the Kiev region, explosions reported."

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"Multiple explosions Kharkov region."

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"In Krivoy Rog, Gerans flew to the thermal power plant, which had already been hit during the day. Finished off."

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"Another round of explosions in Zaporyzhe and Kharkov Oblasts reported."

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"Explosions in Kherson are reported again."

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[TruckDriver9]

^
Preliminary report

Update

 

[TruckDriver9]

February 10 - supposedly a Russian naval drone strike on the bridge in Zatoka, west of Odessa, en route to Romania.

 

[8ball]

Gen. Milley says Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine: sources

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told lawmakers that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine took place, multiple congressional sources tell Fox News.

www.foxnews.com

There is a split in the Biden administration, between the ideologue neocons, who have the upper hand, and the realists like Milley, who are not technically pro-peace, but who now fully understand that Ukraine is going to lose big, and that NATO can't change the outcome, doubling down will just result in a bigger setback. So Milley and co are pushing for a settlement. His statement above should be interpreted in this sense.

The article is from last year

 

[Pointy Elbows]

February 10 - supposedly a Russian naval drone strike on the bridge in Zatoka, west of Odessa, en route to Romania.

Taking out that Zatoka Bridge (if it is really disabled) raises the stakes for an "Odessa Moment." If the US sends in the 101st by helicopter (from Romania) to save Odessa, then resupply must go through Moldova (and there's another bridge on the Ukraine side of that estuary). Land supply is effectively cut, without involving Moldova even more. I wonder if this had something to do with the Russian missile flights over Moldova yesterday.

 

[Rocha]

Gen. Milley says Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine: sources

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told lawmakers that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine took place, multiple congressional sources tell Fox News.

www.foxnews.com

There is a split in the Biden administration, between the ideologue neocons, who have the upper hand, and the realists like Milley, who are not technically pro-peace, but who now fully understand that Ukraine is going to lose big, and that NATO can't change the outcome, doubling down will just result in a bigger setback. So Milley and co are pushing for a settlement. His statement above should be interpreted in this sense.

Would not be surprised to see those Leopards and Abrahams being deployed on NATO territory but with Russian "tankists" on the wheels.

 

[911]

Turns out that article was from last year, but it came on my Twitter feed earlier today, date said February, but didn't pay attention to the year. In any case, Milley did recently float the notion of Russia having the upper hand and the need to set up some kind of negotiated settlement.

 

[Ember]

A few weeks ago, I posted a video of Ukies preparing chemical canisters to be dropped from drones. There has now been evidence of their use.

The video at the linked post is very disturbing. Don't watch if you are sensitive.

Ukrainian forces use chemical weapons. Here's the first video evidence

In the first video an AFU drone operator's dropping chemical weapons. Our militaries tried to cover in the water, but they started having seizures, vomiting and convulsions. Our guys drowned in agony.

In the second video, published by Ukrainian 'military blogger' Yury Madiar, he boasts of chemical munitions and hints that the AFU preparing to use prohibited munitions on facilities in Artemovsk.

The use of these are prohibited within Ukraine by law, and by relevant convention barring use during war.

Starlink has announced it has taken steps to prevent Ukrainian military use of its satellites. This could be in response to the use of chemical weapons.

 

[Ember]

Douglas McGregor alleges that Ukrainian commander Zaluzhny reported secretly to the US that they have lost 257,000 soldiers.

 

[911]

 

[TruckDriver9]

Soledar - 11.02.2023

"The situation in the Soledar direction as of 17:00 /Moscow time/ February 11, 2023

▪️ Fierce battles continue near Bakhmut. The efforts of the Russian troops are concentrated on the capture of Paraskoviivka and Krasna Hora north of Bakhmut, as well as on the development of success after the liberation of Sakko and Vantsetti on the right bank of the Bakhmutovka River, and after physical cutting of roads from Chasiv Yar to Bakhmut in the west.

▪️ Assault groups of PMC "Wagner", with the support of regular formations of the RF Armed Forces, actually closed the encirclement around the contingent from the 54th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine defending in the ruined village of Krasna Hora.
▪️ The command of the operational-tactical group "Soledar" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is unable to reinforce nor withdraw personnel from the village. One of the enemy companies fled from the front, having suffered irreparable losses. So far, the option of transferring additional assault groups is being considered, but due to the risk of losing personnel in the course of an oncoming battle, no decision has yet been made.

▪️ The enemy army aviation is working on Russian assault groups: Ukrainian Mi-8 and Mi-24 are involved from the airfield in Mirny, west of Donetsk. Tactical aviation was redirected from Ugledar and Marinka to Bakhmut.
▪️ At the same time, in the Kramatorsk region, for several days now, the Bayraktar TB2 UAV delivered from Turkey, which carries out target designation for Ukrainian artillery, has been conducting reconnaissance of the western parts of the DPR.

▪️ The redeployment of part of the Ukrainian units, which were planned to be used in Terny and near Kreminna, is recorded in Lyman. The withdrawn formations were transferred to Kramatorsk, and in the future they are planned to be sent to the front line in Bakhmut.
▪️ Separate units of the newly formed 47th Artillery Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also sent there.
▪️ In the 30th Mechanized and the 10th Mountain Assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, everything is not going smoothly either: due to the Russian fire control over supply lines, the rotation of units and the supply of ammunition are complicated. A regrouping has now been organized, but it is ragged and with failures.

▪️ Foreign mercenaries operating near Bakhmut occupy mainly the second or third line of defense. Young replenishment, mobilized and territorial defense detachments take up defense in the forefront.
▪️ The use of untrained and inexperienced recruits allows the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to temporarily “fill up” the front with “cannon fodder”, slowing down the advance of Russian troops with the hope of gaining time necessary for the deliveries of relatively modern equipment to arrive from the West."

 

[Twigg]

What is the actual chance of this going in nuclear? I’m currently north eastern Ontario and I’m wondering if I should relocate to a safer area. No one around me believes that there is a threat. But they also didn’t believe in any harm coming from the Covid vaccines. I just wanted to get accurate assessment of the situation. I’ve talk to my priest, and he doesn’t know just because everything’s rapidly changing.

 

[911]

You'll have enough advance warning. Things are bad now, but they need to deteriorate and escalate several notches further before nuclear war becomes a distinct possibility.

If you're in Canada and not living in the largest 3-4 cities you would probably be "fine", at least from the blasts,, the aftermath would be another huge issue.

 

[Foolsgo1d]

What is the actual chance of this going in nuclear? I’m currently north eastern Ontario and I’m wondering if I should relocate to a safer area. No one around me believes that there is a threat. But they also didn’t believe in any harm coming from the Covid vaccines. I just wanted to get accurate assessment of the situation. I’ve talk to my priest, and he doesn’t know just because everything’s rapidly changing.

When a group of demented warmongers start a war with lies and continue those lies despite evidence to disprove of them then that is when you know it isn't a "war for democracy" as they keep saying but something far more sinister.

You have these pro-war advocates in the general populace who by all means would have been anti-war after 2001 but for some reason through demoralisation they are cheering on the "democracy must win" line our politicians are spewing. I hear it on the radio and TV when I decide to tune in and they just dont understand the evil behind all of this.

It is a war to destroy Russia. The Neocons and Great Reset people are in an alliance and both see the same result benefitting them both. Neocons/neo-libs want to destroy Russia for simply being Russian and the WEF wants it destroyed because 50% of GDP is fossil fuels.

Zelensky is a court jester doing the bidding of his masters.

With all of this in mind you can err on the side of caution that the likelihood of escalation is extremely likely.

Your priest wont know how to approach such a situation either.

Your best bet is to stay away from Europe, the UK and places nearby. Learn your general geographical location and any points of interest. Learning wind patterns/maps would also be helpful.

If you are going to prepare yourself and family do not tell anyone outside of those you trust.

 

[Rocha]

When a group of demented warmongers start a war with lies and continue those lies despite evidence to disprove of them then that is when you know it isn't a "war for democracy" as they keep saying but something far more sinister.

You have these pro-war advocates in the general populace who by all means would have been anti-war after 2001 but for some reason through demoralisation they are cheering on the "democracy must win" line our politicians are spewing. I hear it on the radio and TV when I decide to tune in and they just dont understand the evil behind all of this.

It is a war to destroy Russia. The Neocons and Great Reset people are in an alliance and both see the same result benefitting them both. Neocons/neo-libs want to destroy Russia for simply being Russian and the WEF wants it destroyed because 50% of GDP is fossil fuels.

Zelensky is a court jester doing the bidding of his masters.

With all of this in mind you can err on the side of caution that the likelihood of escalation is extremely likely.

Your priest wont know how to approach such a situation either.

Your best bet is to stay away from Europe, the UK and places nearby. Learn your general geographical location and any points of interest. Learning wind patterns/maps would also be helpful.

If you are going to prepare yourself and family do not tell anyone outside of those you trust.

"Democracy must win" yet I have never seen the name of Ursula von der Leyen or Charles Michel in a ballot...

 

[TruckDriver9]

Kupyansk-Kreminna - 12.02.2023

"The situation in the Starobilsk direction as of 13:00 /Moscow time/ February 12, 2023

Kupyansk direction
▪️ At the Kupyansk sector, over the past few days, the fighters of the RF Armed Forces have advanced in the areas northeast of Kupyansk, liberating Hryanykivka in the north.
▪️ The offensive from Horobivka and Tavilzhanka forced the Armed Forces of Ukraine to withdraw forces from Dvorichne - in fact, the village is now under the control of Russian troops. (the village of Dvorichne not the town of Dvorichna as some sources claimed before)
▪️ In addition, units of the RF Armed Forces occupied several strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the outskirts of Synkivka, and also confidently entrenched themselves in Lyman Pershyi.
▪️ The Ukrainian command is afraid of a direct attack on Kupyansk - part of the territorial defense forces were withdrawn to the west bank of the Oskil River. Yesterday, a convoy of military equipment with people, weapons and ammunition passed through Korobochkyne and Kochetok towards Kupyansk and the settlements to the south.

Svatove-Kreminna direction
▪️ At the Lyman sector, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are afraid of attacks on pontoon-bridge crossings at the Makiivka-Terny-Yampolivka line. In this situation, units of the 66th Mechanized and the 25th Airborne brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operating at the line, could be surrounded on the left bank of the Zherebets River.
▪️ The Armed Forces of Ukraine simply cannot defend this sector and conduct a counteroffensive to return to the lost positions at the moment, because of the transfer of some formations to the Bakhmut and Ugledar sectors.
▪️ The 66th and 25th brigades suffered such heavy losses during artillery strikes in the area of the Zhuravka gully and the breakthrough of the 144th Motor Rifle Division of the RF Armed Forces in the direction of Yampolivka, that it is unrealistic to replenish them in the shortest possible time.
▪️ Partial evacuation of forces of the 66th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Lyman and Kramatorsk began from the forward positions to restore combat capability and build a new line of defense.
▪️ Under the current conditions of activity in several sectors of the front, the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are limited. The need to hold Ugledar and Bakhmut made it necessary to withdraw units from the Starobilsk direction and actually postpone the declared offensive for an indefinite period."

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Work of Russian artillery on ukrainian troops in Hryanykivka

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POV - Russian T-90M Proryv tank works on ukrainian positions in the area of the Zhuravka gully

 

[TruckDriver9]

Bakhmut - 12.02.2023

"Battle for Bakhmut situation as of 14:00 /Moscow time/ February 12, 2023

▪️ Assault units of PMC "Wagner" liberated the village of Krasna Hora north of Bakhmut.
▪️ The Pidhorodne-Krasna Hora-Paraskoviivka triangle was the main knot of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine north of Bakhmut: after the capture of Soledar, the enemy managed to pull up reserves and build defenses along the dominant heights.
▪️ PMC "Wagner" detachments entered Paraskoviivka and Krasna Hora a couple of weeks ago, but they managed to squeeze out the Ukrainian garrison only today.
▪️ For the last two days, Ukrainian formations have been trying to withdraw units blocked in Krasna Hora: last night some of them managed to escape towards Paraskoviivka.
▪️ Russian assault groups are cleaning up the village and continue to put pressure on Paraskoviivka itself: after taking Krasna Hora and the dominant heights, the defense in the village should crumble in the near future.
▪️ Given the already cut highway Bakhmut-Slavyansk, the next task of the PMC "Wagner" will be the capture of Berkhivka and securing the northern outskirts of Bakhmut itself (PMC units have already entered Stupki).
▪️ But even if the main highways from Bakhmut to Slavyansk and Chasiv Yar are already blocked, it is extremely premature to talk about the operational encirclement of the city: thanks to the network of secondary roads in the fields between the main routes, Ukrainian formations almost unhinderedly transfer reinforcements to the crucible of the Bakhmut meat grinder."

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"Confirmation video of PMC "Wagner" from Krasna Hora. The assault teams move on.
Prigozhin confirms the liberation of Krasna Hora. Paraskoviivka is next in line."

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POV - German journalists in Bakhmut

 

[Ember]

More evidence that Starlink has reacted over the chemical weapon drones.

 

[TruckDriver9]

Soledar - 13.02.2023
"The situation in the Soledar direction by the end of February 13, 2023

Soledar direction
▪️ Assault detachments of the Wagner PMC knocked out the Armed Forces of Ukraine from positions west of Blahodatne. Russian fighters advanced in the direction of the Zaliznyanske-Vasyukivka line.

Bakhmut direction
▪️ After the liberation of the village of Krasna Hora, the assault detachments of the Wagner PMC continue to clean up the surroundings and advance in the Paraskoviivka area. The command of the Ukrainian group is working on a plan to withdraw the remaining forces from the suburbs.
▪️ The only access road to Paraskoviivka remains under the partial control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, along which ammunition is supplied. An electronic warfare detachment is operating in Paraskoviivka, and units of the 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine are expected to be transferred to the combat area to hold the line until a new line of defense is prepared.
▪️ Russian troops went a little deeper into the defensive positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, through the Slavyansk-Bakhmut highway, in the direction of Dubovo-Vasilevka: now the fighting is going on near the northwestern outskirts of Berkhivka. It is extremely important for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to keep this village: through which one of the remaining supply routes for troops in Bakhmut passes.
▪️ In Bakhmut, the “Wagnerites” advanced in the Budyonovsky district in the south-west of the city, squeezing out the Armed Forces of Ukraine from a stronghold near the cemetery.
▪️ One of the battalions fighting in Bakhmut was disbanded and the personnel (about 200 people) was transferred to the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to replace the dead and wounded. In addition, members of the Ukrainian formations are talking about the arrival of two battalions of an unidentified formation from Chernihiv.

Chasiv Yar direction
▪️ To the south-west of Bakhmut, fighting continues on the outskirts of the settlements of Stupochky and Krasne/Ivanivske. After the arrival of units of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, Ukrainian troops were able to hold their positions near the Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. At the moment, the assault continues.
▪️ To the south, forces of the 28th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine expect a Russian offensive on the Bila Hora-Dyliivka line. Ammunition was brought to the positions of the 2nd and 3rd battalions of the 28th brigade, and media representatives arrived at the front line."