This is a controlled bleed of the Russian armed forces - balance participation just enough to stagnate the fighting so Russia either runs out of materiel and/or willpower to continue. By the time the fighting in Ukraine has ceased, Russia will have not only all but exhausted its means to secure other territory as safeguards, but also most of its ability to defend itself.
The only wild card is and always has been low-yield tactical nuclear weaponry.
Russia has been fighting this campaign at 50% capacity or less to start with, with an army of fewer than 200,000. They have to do that in order to discourage bystanders like Poland, the Balts, NATO from piling in and opening fronts in Kaliningrad, Baltic Sea, Georgia etc. The US could for example open up fronts in the Pacific (Alaska, Sakhalin, Sea of Japan etc), the same way the bankers pushed Japan to attack Russia in 1905 in order to divert its resources from the European front.
They haven't fully dug in into their weapon stockpile, using missile attacks on carefully selected targets, and not overly risking their air power. Russia is probably shoring up its MIC and churning up their production of missiles and other weapons, fine-tuning their inventory with what has been working out for them.
I bet China is looking at the conflict and will now be mass producing the cheapest version of Kalibr-like cruise missiles in huge numbers, with the probability of a conflict in Taiwan in the next few years now being closer to 50%. If things escalate with Russia, China will have to open up a new front in the Pacific with NATO/US, they cannot afford to have Russia lose this, China being economically and militarily unsustainable without Russia.
So if things escalate between NATO and Russia, I would expect China to start pumping weapons into Russia, the same way the US/NATO have been pumping weapons into Ukraine and bordering countries, except Russia will get more useful hardware like cruise missiles and last generation drones. I expect China to use its industrial might and step up its procurement and output.