The Russian-Ukrainian War of 2022 (News and battle updates)

[911]

This is a controlled bleed of the Russian armed forces - balance participation just enough to stagnate the fighting so Russia either runs out of materiel and/or willpower to continue. By the time the fighting in Ukraine has ceased, Russia will have not only all but exhausted its means to secure other territory as safeguards, but also most of its ability to defend itself.

The only wild card is and always has been low-yield tactical nuclear weaponry.

Russia has been fighting this campaign at 50% capacity or less to start with, with an army of fewer than 200,000. They have to do that in order to discourage bystanders like Poland, the Balts, NATO from piling in and opening fronts in Kaliningrad, Baltic Sea, Georgia etc. The US could for example open up fronts in the Pacific (Alaska, Sakhalin, Sea of Japan etc), the same way the bankers pushed Japan to attack Russia in 1905 in order to divert its resources from the European front.

They haven't fully dug in into their weapon stockpile, using missile attacks on carefully selected targets, and not overly risking their air power. Russia is probably shoring up its MIC and churning up their production of missiles and other weapons, fine-tuning their inventory with what has been working out for them.

I bet China is looking at the conflict and will now be mass producing the cheapest version of Kalibr-like cruise missiles in huge numbers, with the probability of a conflict in Taiwan in the next few years now being closer to 50%. If things escalate with Russia, China will have to open up a new front in the Pacific with NATO/US, they cannot afford to have Russia lose this, China being economically and militarily unsustainable without Russia.

So if things escalate between NATO and Russia, I would expect China to start pumping weapons into Russia, the same way the US/NATO have been pumping weapons into Ukraine and bordering countries, except Russia will get more useful hardware like cruise missiles and last generation drones. I expect China to use its industrial might and step up its procurement and output.

 

[TruckDriver9]

Lugansk front - Popasna / Popasnaya update.

Aerial view of the city



Update - translated from Russian channels:

"Popasnaya is almost called the Stalingrad of the current special operation. The comparison, although overly pretentious, is still correct. Yes, there is a successful operation to liberate Mariupol. But if we compare the scale of the forces and means involved, as well as the prospects for the operation, then Popasnaya is one of the critical points for the success of the second phase of the NWO.

What gives control over Popasna:
- the possibility of continuing the offensive simultaneously in several directions;
- access to a large transport hub - the city of Bakhmut, the occupation of which will disrupt the supply of part of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
- the possibility of creating several boilers with cutting off the Slavic-Kramatorsk group from the rest of the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass.

Understanding these prospects, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred part of the units from the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysichansk agglomeration to Popasnaya. This made it possible to partially compensate for the losses suffered by the 24th Lviv mechanized brigade. And although the allied forces already control most of the city, the assault on Popasna is still one of the most difficult operations at once for several reasons.

Difficulties of Popasna:
- The settlement is located on a hill, where there is a whole network of natural water obstacles. This significantly slowed down the pace of the offensive in the early days.
- For 8 years, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have made a powerful fortified area out of the city, surrounding it (especially along the southern outskirts) with a system of platoon and company strongholds, which are interconnected by communications /tunnels/. These communications make it possible to covertly transfer personnel and armored vehicles to firing positions with the possibility of prompt withdrawal to shelters.
- The elimination of strongholds, where units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now trying to withdraw from the city, the allied forces will probably deal with after the liberation of the territory of Popasna itself.
- Most of the city is a private /residential/ sector, in which Ukrainian soldiers dug trenches, tunnels and equipped dugouts in the basements. Cleaning every house takes a lot of time and effort.
- In rare high-rise buildings, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine created positions for snipers and fire spotters.
- There are still civilians in Popasna, which does not allow the allied forces to fully use aviation and artillery.

And so it turns out that it will take more time to storm a town of twenty thousand than to liberate half a million Mariupol. However, this operation is gradually coming to an end.

Presently:
- Under the control of the allied forces is the entire eastern part of the city, the railway station "Popasnaya-1", the building of the local administration.
- Several strongholds were liquidated around the city.
- There is an additional cleansing of the southwestern outskirts and preparations for an offensive towards the Popasnyansky car repair plant.
- Servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine gradually understand the futility of further resistance and surrender in small groups.

The result of Popasna's liberation will not be long in coming, and the second phase of the special military operation will proceed at a different speed."

 

[TruckDriver9]

Map - Northern Donbass 29.04.2022

Russian troops captured Yampil and Aleksandrovka/Oleksandrivka. All fronts - from Velyka Komyshuvakha all the way to Yampil - are connected.

 

[TruckDriver9]

The situation on the fronts on the evening of April 30 - google translated from Russian news

Карта военных действий и ситуация на фронтах вечером 30 апреля — Readovka.news

Актуальная карта военных действий

readovka.news

"Traditionally, arrivals and shelling of the territories of the Russian Federation bordering Ukraine continued. Explosions were reported in Belgorod,
all night air defense was working. Iskanders also worked from us towards the border. The governor of the Kursk region reported that the Krupets checkpoint was again shelled. There appeared to be no casualties. The enemy was suppressed by a response. Also, 2 shells exploded on the territory of the village of Zhecha in the Bryansk region. Several outbuildings were damaged. There are no casualties today.
On the fronts, the picture essentially repeats yesterday. Let's go over the main points.

Fighting continues in the north of Kharkov near the settlement. Russian Lozovaya. This place has changed hands several times in recent days. Now it seems to be ours. The Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the occupation of several settlements that were in the "gray zone" in the north-east of Kharkov. There were also not weak arrivals in the Kharkov suburbs.

On the broad Izyum front, slow but steady progress. West of Izyum, fighting for Bolshaya Komyshevakha. South of Izyum, fighting near Kurulka and Pashkovo, it is reported we finally took Dovgenkoe. At the Oskol reservoir, the Armed Forces of Ukraine with a total number of up to 1000 people are in the operational environment. Allied troops, having completed the cleansing of Yampol, reached the outskirts of Liman from the southeast, a war begins inside the city. Fire control was established over the Liman-Raygorodok road. Liman's operational encirclement is complete. In this direction, the greatest successes, many prisoners, trophies. Here, the “O” group famously beats the enemy.

Fierce fighting continues in the LPR. It seems that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are holding on with their last strength. The cleansing of the industrial zone of the frontier continues, the fighting in Severodonetsk, the enemy is being driven out of Orekhovo. But the ukros transferred their main forces to Popasnaya, for which very heavy and fierce battles are being waged. The Armed Forces of Ukraine tightly grabbed a strategically important and well-fortified point. The city was already nicknamed the local Stalingrad. The assault on Popasna has been going on for a month and a half, regular troops, tanks, "Kadyrovtsy" and "Wagnerites" are slowly taking the city. Now there is an additional cleaning of the southwestern outskirts and preparations for an offensive in the direction of the Popasnyansky car repair plant. As soon as Popasnaya falls, the movement of the second phase will go faster.

On the Donetsk part of the front is also not boring. The artillery skating rink along Avdeevka is very dense, the TOS-1 is working today. Military correspondent Pegov reports that near Adeevka, the "Somali" battalion was able to inflict heavy losses on the enemy, who lost up to 80 personnel. And to the north, "Sparta" destroyed the column of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A whole column of Ukrainian armored vehicles was burned near Krasnohorivka.

In the Zaporozhye line, the battles between Gulyaipole and Velyka Novoselka continue. In the Orekhov area there was again an artillery bath. The concrete of the fortifications is being ground along the entire length of the eastern front line.

It's quiet on the southern front today, except for the arrivals. In addition to Nikolaev, seriously arrived in Odessa, high-precision fired at the Shkolny airfield near Odessa. Damage to the terminal and runway is reported.

It is worth noting the agony of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Which, as if distraught, with some kind of violent fury, continues to hit the peaceful areas of Donetsk. Several packages of BM-21 Grad were fired at the center of the Petrovsky district of Donetsk. One person died, there are wounded, dozens of houses, a school, a kindergarten were destroyed. Artillery hit the Tekstilshchik microdistrict again. A young girl was injured, and apartment buildings were also damaged. The city of Debaltseve came under fire from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They were hit with Uragan rockets. Early in the morning, a Tochka-U missile was shot down over the city of Snezhnoye by DPR air defense. This city is deep in the rear, and why the Nazis were hitting there, as always, is not clear. They beat half of the Luhansk region in the same way.
There are fires, there are victims. What is this if not agony?"

 

[La Águila Negra]

This is a controlled bleed of the Russian armed forces - balance participation just enough to stagnate the fighting so Russia either runs out of materiel and/or willpower to continue. By the time the fighting in Ukraine has ceased, Russia will have not only all but exhausted its means to secure other territory as safeguards, but also most of its ability to defend itself.

The only wild card is and always has been low-yield tactical nuclear weaponry.

Very succinct yet spot on analysis.

The stagnation of the military-operational situation is in favor of Ukraine and its backers. Russia could not score a quick victory - neither political nor military and has hence become bogged down in a grinding landwar in a neighboring nation, one which is already making them bleed severely and empty their storage sites. The Ukrainians have successfully completed mobilization, are hooked on a Lend and Lease 2.0 Program and have a manpower pool 6 to 10 million deep. The Russians on the other hand, according to the latest info, are now engaged with 89 BTGs (down from 110 at the start) and auxiliary forces consisting of a variety of local militias and militarized police units. Russian missile and airpower acts as force multiplier.

Either way any tactical military victory comes at huge expenses - with the stated political objectives ('removing the drug addicted, neo nazi government in Kiev', 'demilitarising and denazifying the country of Ukraine', and 'returning Ukraine to its status as a neutral country') as far away from completion as they were on February 22. This should be obvious to everybody by now. Hence the Kremlin will need to raise the ante (escalation) in whatever form without getting baited into conflict in second or even third countries. The external variable will be Europe and Germany in particular but as things now stand those have been demoted to vassalage.

Those aiming at extending the war for as long as possible know that Russian economy and production cannot replace capacity fast enough to keep up with the drastic losses - lots of the high-tech stuff is chock-full of by now cut off Western components anyway. The Russian overall capacity for power projection will decrease as the war grinds on, paving the way for further provocations (ie. continued eastward NATO expansion, a two pronged attack on Transnistria, combined Polish-US move into Western Ukraine under the guise of a peacekeeping force, opening of the Bosporus, renewed attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, Balkans, etc.)

This is textbook 'death by a thousand cuts' and 'encirclement doctrine', something elaborately described in the many RAND reports on the subject. Very skillfully pulled off by the US/NATO - I have said before that after 2014 they simply couldn't lose anymore. So far they have gotten most of what they wanted. Weakening of Russia through Ukraine, weakening of Europe through Russia and subsequent renewed pledge of submission, fertilizing anti-Russian sentiment in Europe and FSU, decoupling of Russia from Europe, re-arming of vassal states + re-militarizing NATO's Eastern flank etc. etc.

 

[Ember]

Those aiming at extending the war for as long as possible know that Russian economy and production cannot replace capacity fast enough to keep up with the drastic losses - lots of the high-tech stuff is chock-full of by now cut off Western components anyway.

China and India can and will support Russia with arms, production and trade. They will not let the US/NATO take out a key ally. If Russia falls, they are next. Do not underestimate the will of these allies to support Russia. The West is declining fast, and a bipolar world order is just around the corner.

This is textbook 'death by a thousand cuts' and 'encirclement doctrine',

There is no way to encircle Russia when they have large neighbouring allies like India and China.

 

[911]

India will only support Russia as a buyer for its products, oil, coal, lumber, weapons, but that support is indeed crucial to Russia pivoting away from the EU. India imports as much oil as Japan and Germany put together, and Indian demand is growing faster.

China is the world's largest oil and resource importer in the world, ahead of India, and unlike India they can supply Russia with arms, and will do so if needed. They are by far the greatest manufacturing power in the world and their leadership channels are clear and efficient. They can build a massive hospital in 10 days, a destroyer in 4 months, missiles and munitions in great numbers in a short amount of time.

 

[La Águila Negra]

Strelkov at it again.

Regarding the situation on the Donetsk front (I don’t have any information on the rest of the fronts):

The area south of Izyum:
Fierce fighting continues along the entire perimeter of the Russian bridgehead. There are tactical advances everywhere. According to incoming reports, the most fierce battles are taking place on the right flank - in the area of the village of Velikaya Kamyshevakha (and, possibly, directly in the village), as well as "on the edge" of the offensive - in the center of the bridgehead - in the area (possibly - and on the territory) of the village of Novaya Dmitrovka . After taking the indicated n.p. our troops will approach directly the Barvenkovo-Slavyansk highway and create a threat of its interception (which will not be easy, since the settlements along this highway merge into an almost continuous agglomeration).

It should be noted that the battles are continuous "viscous" character. The enemy has enough manpower to - despite the lengthening of the front line in this area - nowhere to allow Russian troops to make deep breakthroughs.

At the same time, the enemy continues to withdraw his forces from the bridgehead he still has on the left bank of the Seversky Donets - from the Liman-Yampol region and the Severodonetsk ledge, leaving the most advanced positions to the east between Severodonetsk and Popasna (in which fierce fighting continued).

It is assumed that the enemy will soon (today or tomorrow) leave Liman and withdraw his troops to strengthen the flanks of the group - near Barvenkovo and Slavyansk.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the DPR were unable to prevent this and surround the enemy units.

In general, the enemy defends competently, stubbornly, controls the situation and his troops. There is no panic in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is absolutely clear that the command is betting on WINING TIME AND INflicting MAXIMUM LOSSES on the strike units of the RF Armed Forces (LDNR Armed Forces) - due to the unhurried surrender of the territory

Ahead of the Russian troops in this direction is the huge Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which was prepared in advance for a long defense. Its Armed Forces will definitely not surrender until the last opportunity - defending, if necessary, as a "besieged fortress". (In this regard, the fate of the remnants of the Mariupol garrison is of great importance- they should not be released or interned in any case - otherwise the garrison of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk will defend just as long and hard, if not longer and harder). However, this "fortress" will still have to be surrounded, which is very difficult to do with the available limited forces and at such a low pace - at which the enemy freely withdraws his units and prepares new defense units in advance.

In the south - in the area of Gulyai-Pole and Orekhov - the situation has not changed significantly. "Southern part of ticks" stalled.

In the central section - near Donetsk - the situation as a whole is unchanged. There is a lull in most areas, the fighting is only in the area north of Avdiivka, where the DPR Armed Forces have had minor tactical successes.

The general conclusion, unfortunately, is bleak: the attack of the Russian group on the encirclement and encirclement of the Donetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which did not come as a surprise, met with fierce resistance and almost certainly will not lead to a complete encirclement and defeat of the enemy. additional tank corps in order to abruptly break through the front and connect deep in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). "Cannes" just didn't work out.

In the best case, the enemy will be “squeezed out” from the Donbass for many weeks and even - it is possible - for several months, with heavy losses (mutual, of course). That will allow him to create, train and massively introduce strategic reserves into battle in any chosen area without much haste by the summer. And also - to crush Transnistria, gathering sufficient forces for this and not risking defeat near Donetsk during the operation.

 

[911]

This scenario is pretty flawed, like the notion that Ukraine can extend the fight deep into Summer. Russia can just step up their pressure, for example destroying all refineries in Ukraine and denying oil and fuel to the country. Good luck introducing strategic reserves into battle, what, with bicycles from Poland?

 

[TruckDriver9]

It is assumed that the enemy will soon (today or tomorrow) leave Liman and withdraw his troops to strengthen the flanks of the group - near Barvenkovo and Slavyansk.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the DPR were unable to prevent this and surround the enemy units.

I would put a question mark on that one.
Russians are in Aleksandrovka /north/, Zarichnoye /east/ and in Yampol /south/, so Lyman is surrounded on 3 sides.
Both roads out - Lyman-Svyatogorsk and Lyman-Raygorodok - should be in range of Russian artillery, so that ukrainian withdraw won't be that easy

 

[TruckDriver9]

Map - Eastern Ukraine 01.05.2022


Liman front update:
"- Allied forces entrenched themselves in Aleksandrovka and Stavki. The capture of Yampol made it possible to bypass Liman from the southeastern outskirts and occupy the triangle of roads Slavyansk - Liman - Seversk. The small villages of Dibrova and Ozernoe are in the gray zone.
- A group of 1,000 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been “boiling in a cauldron” near Oskol near the reservoir for several days now.
- Fights are going on near Svyatogorsk, but no one has yet entered the city itself. After the capture of Alexandrovka, the fighting shifted to the forest belt at the turn of Sosnovaya - Yarovaya - Borogodichnaya. The fiercest of all skirmishes near Bogorodichnaya."

 

[TruckDriver9]

The situation on the fronts on the evening of May 1 - google translated from Russian news

https://readovka.news/news/95699

"The key topic of the day was the new shelling of the regions bordering with Ukraine. There was an arrival at the ammunition depot in Belgorod.
“On the border of three municipalities - the Borisov and Belgorod regions and the Yakovlevsky urban district, a fire broke out at the facility of the Ministry of Defense,” said the governor of the Belgorod region.
A pillar of the railway bridge in Kursk region /between Sudzha and Sosnovy Bor/ was also destroyed. Governor Roman Starovoit confirmed the version of sabotage, the Investigative Committee opened a criminal case under the article "terrorist act". At the moment, investigators and recovery teams are working at the site of the explosion.

The front continues to seethe. Good activity in the Slavic direction, where the front moves from north to south. The enemy suffered serious losses near Yampol and was forced to retreat. There are active battles in the Liman area. At the same time, the front is moving from Izyum in the area of Dovgenkoe. If these movements continue in a southerly direction, then Slavyansk will be in a semicircle. After breaking through Yampol and clearing the Liman, the troops will most likely move to Nikolaevka /Mykolaivka/ settlement. According to the relief, this village is located on a hill in relation to Slavyansk, said Daniil Bezsonov, First Deputy Minister of Information of the DPR.

In the center, in the Donetsk direction, our troops continue to crush the enemy on the previously broken section of the front between Gorlovka and Yasinovataya, bypassing the grouping defending in Avdiivka on the left flank. At the same time, they managed to break through the enemy's defensive lines in the area of Avdiivka itself. Fighting also continues in the village of Marinka. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are chaotically striking, Donetsk, Gorlovka, Yasinovataya and Yenakiyevo have been under heavy fire since morning. Ukrainian troops are hitting residential areas and infrastructure from large-caliber mortars and MLRS "GRAD". There are victims.

There are no special advances in the area of Ugledar, Velyka Novoselka and Gulyaipol of the Zaporozhye region, but simultaneously with the grinding of the enemy, the RF Armed Forces are accumulating forces in several sectors of the front for a breakthrough to the north. At night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine beat on Tokmak, which is under the control of the Russian troops. Two Ukrainian S-300 complexes were destroyed in the area of Artemovsk and Zaporozhye.

Mariupol is gradually returning to normal life. Today, the evacuation of civilians from the territory of the Azovstal plant continued. It is reported that 80 people left in the new group."

 

[La Águila Negra]

China and India can and will support Russia with arms, production and trade. They will not let the US/NATO take out a key ally. If Russia falls, they are next. Do not underestimate the will of these allies to support Russia. The West is declining fast, and a bipolar world order is just around the corner.




There is no way to encircle Russia when they have large neighbouring allies like India and China.

Putinbros is there a reason why Russian propaganda channels (both official and unofficial) are suddenly going so hard on the nuclear option? How does this relate to the marvelous successes made in the field?

Russian talkshow with sveral Duma adn media representatives

Even Zhirikovsky got dusted off again.



Don't be mad, just pointing out the hypocrisy and discrepancy.

 

[La Águila Negra]

China and India can and will support Russia with arms, production and trade. They will not let the US/NATO take out a key ally. If Russia falls, they are next. Do not underestimate the will of these allies to support Russia. The West is declining fast, and a bipolar world order is just around the corner.




There is no way to encircle Russia when they have large neighbouring allies like India and China.

LOL that escalated quickly. From 'Russia can be in Central Europe in mere weeks if it wanted to NATO doesn't stand a change' two months ago to 'India will save us r-r-r-ight?'

 

[La Águila Negra]

NATO provides a whole lot of added value, especially with intelligence and satellite info, as well as some big tactical operations like the sinking of the Moskva. They can delay the outcome, raise the cost to Russia, but ultimately they cannot prevent the ultimate defeat of Ukraine.

You're looking at the map of the biggest country in Europe, and a progress of several kms/day against a very heavily fortified defensive position that they have spent years setting up, that is solid progress, but it might not look that impressive on a large map.

My God the gaslighting is of another planet. As if there isn't a big fat search button right up there in the top right corner. Did Ukraine magically increase in size back from late February when you and ilk were in fifth gear non-stop pumping pro Kremlin Victory is Ours!, TWO MORE WEEKS feel good nonsense in every thread available - basically blowing smokescreens for the sake of maintaining the narrative? Did those 15 layers deep 'heavily fortified positions' (don't exist on the Izyum - Gulaypole axis anyway) that nobody spoke about up until 3 weeks ago just appear out of thin air? Was the Ukraine-NATO link not yet widely understood two months ago?

The 'sudden' change of tune should be interpreted as an implicit admission of being wrong. Not exactly for the first time either, but let's not go there. Maybe something beautiful could sprout from these humbling moments through some quiet introspection and existential auto-questioning. Ask yourself the question: is the Kremlin agitprop dope meant to bring me closer to the Truth or is it a low tier psy-op operation designed to maintain the narrative that 'the masterplan' is working and all will be well?. Rhetorical question. Putinistas are just as stubborn, one-sided and ideologically blinded as pro Ukraine NPCs - the only difference is that they stand at the other side of the fence.

The covering for Russian ineptness - on both tactical, strategical, informational and diplomatic level, is cult-like. At this point basically running from cope to cope in a frantic effort to deny the obvious for as long as possible. Explanations are getting more bizarre as time passes. Russia is sparing the UAF! Russia is playing dumb to bait the Ukrainians and will switch gears when required! Russia is keeping its best forces in reserve! Russia is setting a trap! Russia is fighting NATO in Ukraine!. And on and on and on and on. No doubt missed a couple of copes there, not that it matters. Here comes an absolute shocker. The only real reason why we're seeing what we are seeing is because the Russian military is underperforming, so are the Russian intelligence agencies (exception being the GRU) and the Kremlin.. well the Kremlin is just engaged in its usual dimwitry severely damaging military efforts so nothing new there.

Also you're ignoring the fact that there are crucial political considerations here which are slowing down the Russian progress, mainly the fact that they do not wish to completely annihilate Ukrainian forces and carpet bomb entire cities the same way US/NATO forces devastated Iraq. They want a political victory, not just a military one.

Kremlin tacitly acknowledged its own miscalculations on day 5-6 when it started raining down heavy ballistic missiles on city centers throughout the East, hiked up its number of sorties flown per day, gave the go signal to start showering residential areas near the frontlines with heavy artillery/MLRS volleys and shifted to targeting Ukrainian army groupings throughout the country. The reason is obvious, even though pro bono propagandists will try to talk it over. None of the initial strategic objectives were met - the BS pussy footing around wasn't working. If anything it was counterproductive. Nobody turned (SVB messed that up by stealing the bribes), initial strikes didn't do much damage, mass defections didn't occur, communication channels remained working, military collapse didn't happen and the UFA was much better prepared than the Russians expected - after all US assets within the Kremlin had leaked the invasion plans months in advance.

Ever since those adjustments the 'taking it easy out of benign/ political motives' line has become obsolete hence you are stuck in the previous script. A little behind the curve here so to say. Keep up with the Kremlin mouthpieces to maintain an up to date propaganda flow. The new shtick is boasting about ridiculous enemy losses (500 KIA in Zaporzhya missile strike!), destroyed enemy equipment (35 tanks and IVF taken out on xyz front!) and of course the territorial gains, however minimal they may be (xyz village (pop: 3000) under the control of advancing 'liberators').

Quick heads up for those interested in finding out what's going on instead of non-stop reading regurgitated Kremlin propaganda. This is now a fratricidal war with gigantic casualty numbers and no end in sight. The RAF simply isn't capable of implementing military defeat on the UAF hence will keep on chipping away at a snail's pace. An existential conflict too, for both parties involved with the usual suspects fanning the flames from behind the scenes. Hence expect more escalation, more provocations, more death, more destruction, more fronts (inside and outside Ukraine) opening up and of course more Kremlin-fanboy-ism on RVF. GTFO here with that moral superiority nonsense and whilst at it take off your rose-tinted glasses for a second and have a good long look at Mariupol, Kharkov, Chernigov or any of the smaller sized cities that saw urban combat. Shitting on the US/NATO is easy but at some point it gets tiresome and terribly hypocritical.

The only serious political consideration that the bright Kremlin men are right now contemplating (for real this time) is how to establish new deterrents and keep the escalation within their framework. Hence do they 1. declare war and call for (partial) mobilization, 2. do they keep babbling about going nuclear (as many of the official Kremlin propagandists are doing right now) or 3. do they keep pussy footing around and go for a settlement (aka Minsk 3) after the Donbass is done (to damage-control this bin fire). This whole thing is spiraling out of control and obviously this was NOT part of the Kremlin Masterplan - but quite frankly they lost control of the steering wheel a long time ago already even though the usual shills will deny this in every way possible.

That's also why a superpower, if Russia ever wants to be one, CANNOT have a re-active foreign policy. This is geopolitics 101. Inaction and lack of deterrents create (perceived) weakness, which invites further aggression, which leads to more provocations which (if go unanswered as is nearly always the case with the Kremlin) leads to further escalation and so on.

Dear Leader and cadre f-ed up royally in 2014 and are in the process of doing so again. Kremlin is already in the process of re-defining the conditions of victory - as to give itself a way out of things really get dire. Never forget the statements in late February and in the months before. Everything short of regime change in Kiev is defeat. Everything short of Ukraine's unconditional surrender and/or neutral/de militarized status under Russia's watchful eye is defeat. Everything short of a total stop on NATO's eastward expansion is defeat, and so on.

 

[KomnenAl]

Kremlin tacitly acknowledged its own miscalculations on day 5-6 when it started raining down heavy ballistic missiles on city centers throughout the East, hiked up its number of sorties flown per day, gave the go signal to start showering residential areas near the frontlines with heavy artillery/MLRS volleys and shifted to targeting Ukrainian army groupings throughout the country. The reason is obvious, even though pro bono propagandists will try to talk it over. None of the initial strategic objectives were met - the BS pussy footing around wasn't working.

I tried to make these points earlier in this thread (less patiently than you) and was met with "clown world" responses and a three day ban for being "off topic". The cope must be sustained by emotionally invested fanboys that can't read a military map and a calendar. The hard, cold, unpleasant truth is that the operation failed in day 2 and since then it's nothing more than glorified tactical back and forth with zero strategic results for Russia. Tukhachevsky is rolling in his grave.

Good luck to you!

 

[mountainaire]

^ Does this mean we can finally take down all those Ukrainian flags off social media and and stop sending them weapons and billions of dollars?

 

[TruckDriver9]

Third time's a charm ?

In the Odessa region, another missile attack was carried out on the bridge across the Dniester estuary.



"The bridge is of strategic importance - it connects the southern part of the Odessa region with the rest of the territory of Ukraine. The road from Romania also passes through it, in particular from the port of Constanta. In the event of the final destruction of the bridge, the only way to travel by land will be through the territory of Moldova."

 

[Easy_C]

Dear Leader and cadre f-ed up royally in 2014 and are in the process of doing so again. Kremlin is already in the process of re-defining the conditions of victory - as to give itself a way out of things really get dire. Never forget the statements in late February and in the months before. Everything short of regime change in Kiev is defeat. Everything short of Ukraine's unconditional surrender and/or neutral/de militarized status under Russia's watchful eye is defeat. Everything short of a total stop on NATO's eastward expansion is defeat, and so on.

Worth pointing out that their three goals were clearly outlined as early as Day 1, when Putin gave the "empire of lies" speech.
-Demilitarization : to me this means they don't want Ukraine to have a functioning, capable military force left (on track to happen)
-DeNazification: kill or capture all Nazi involved military and political leaders (Not likely. They'll kill off most of the Azov but I don't see how they can remove the leaders/organizers without both invading Poland and conducting a long, costly, siege of Kyiv).
-Donbass separation: Self Explanatory (About to be fully accomplished).

I don't think they care too much about regime change because they don't view the "regime" as the real rulers of Ukraine (if they do, they're stupid beyond any Western caricature). They just want them de-fanged and ineffective so that it does not matter who the current chair warmer is.

 

[Easy_C]

The question to my mind isn't the success of the operation. They're on track to accomplish most of their initially stated objectives, using a force of conscripts that's outnumbered by the defenders which is a rather remarkable feat strategically.

However it's costing them more than they allocated for. The real Western goal here is to use Ukraine to bleed off Russia's military as much as possible before launching into the full scale war. What I don't think they anticipated is that China is giving every indication that they are going to join Russia if that happens, so the attrition with just Russia goes right out the window. It isn't just NATO vs. Russia, it's NATO vs. Russia, China, North Korea, and much of the Middle East while various "allies" of those countries cause regional problems in South America, Asia, and Africa...and against a country (China) which has technological superiority over the West in several key areas (notably China has secure quantum entanglement communications and hypersonic missiles with enough range to circumnavigate the earth).

Historically the US has had three main advantages in war.

• A powerful, safe manufacturing base that could fully supply and stock a large military during sustained operations. This manufacturing base has been largely hollowed out. While there is enough capacity to support what happened during the war on terror, reserves are being rapidly depleted by the Biden admin and it would take half a decade at least to scale up production to what is necessary for a full scale war.
• The use of an experienced NCO corps to manage soldiers on the field and implement field-expedient innovations and solutions to problems they encounter. This still exists to some degree but is being gutted by poor retention, technology-enabled micromanagement, and a "woke" culture that is driving the most effective NCOs out of the military.
• Communications infrastructure that enables precise combined arms operations. Based on my first hand opinion, I believe that this has become a crutch as much as it is an asset and it is one that any capable adversary will kick out from under us immediately by launching a first strike against that infrastructure. Most military units now do not know how to manage any size unit larger than MAYBE a company sized element (more typically Platoon) sized element using only CINGARS, without utilizing a satellite or cellular network at any point.