The Russian-Ukrainian War of 2022 (News and battle updates)

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
Wow Ireland is not going to be on board with that plan.^

Latest from Dreizin:

Izium-Slaviansk front

For the last few weeks, the fronts in eastern Kharkov and the northern Donbass have been functionally merging, and now these areas cannot be viewed separately.

As I’ve described previously, Russia’s strategy differs greatly from the rapid-advance, “leave as many enemy behind us as possible” days of late February and early March.

It’s now one of very slow, deliberate grinding down of Ukrainian forces through massed artillery, aerial bombing, ground and sea-based missile attacks, nighttime commando raids, and occasional tank raids against weakened positions.

The Ukrainians bring up forces, they get wasted, they bring up more, get wasted, and slowly Russia (and the Donetsk forces further east) move in.

There is clearly no hurry to advance; the main goal is to wear out the Ukraine’s human resources—and then, ultimately, there will come a breaking point, and everything will take care of itself.

Based on extensive prisoner accounts, today, we may confidently say that the majority, perhaps SIZEABLE majority, of Ukrainian forces deployed to the northern sector—with fighting primarily between Kharkov city and the Russian border, and then Izium southeast to Yampol’—were NOT in uniform as of February.


They are mobilized inactive-reservists, draftees, or (deployed from their home regions, in violation of their contracts) Territorial Defense militia.


What this tells you, is that the regular army has taken very substantial losses (likely including through desertion.)


I previously estimated that casualties in the northern sector since early April have been at least 3:1 in Russia’s favor. I now believe it’s more like 4:1.


It is telling that the Ukraine has failed to document even just one new Russian prisoner in the last few weeks
(unless I missed something—but I don’t miss much.)


Many Ukrainian bodies will never be recovered—for example, those hit directly with an Iskander tactical ballistic missile (see below for demonstration purposes only), of which Russia continues to shoot at least several per day, each and every day, at Ukrainian sector command posts and platoon or company-sized strongpoints.

 

TruckDriver9

Woodpecker
There is clearly no hurry to advance; the main goal is to wear out the Ukraine’s human resources—and then, ultimately, there will come a breaking point, and everything will take care of itself.
It reminds me of operations in Mariupol - at first painfully slow advance into the city, weeks of maneuvering, slicing the city into isolated pockets and then "snap" all of those strongholds collapsed one after another - port, machine plant, iron works - like dominos
 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
Russia is reporting 600+ Ukrainian soldiers killed yesterday alone in the Donbass, per the Duran. The high numbers are partially due by the fact that Ukrainian forces, being methodically pushed back, have been staging unsuccessful counterattacks where they get exposed and annihilated by heavy artillery fire.

Pretty sad, this war should be stopped, Zelensky, Aristovich and co are literally destroying these poor Slavs with this evil campaign.
 

TruckDriver9

Woodpecker
Quick update today

Donetsk front - "Village of Troitskoye near New York is under full control of DPR."



Lugansk front - "Battles for Voevodovka, located between Rubizhne and Severodonetsk, had begun. Earlier it was reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were knocked out of the forest to the north and northeast of Voevodovka. Control over Voevodovka will ensure the possibility of an attack on the northern regions of Severodonetsk. Now the fighting is already going on in the village."

 

Easy_C

Peacock
It reminds me of operations in Mariupol - at first painfully slow advance into the city, weeks of maneuvering, slicing the city into isolated pockets and then "snap" all of those strongholds collapsed one after another - port, machine plant, iron works - like dominos

That is relatively normal for military operations. Everything works well until all of a sudden it doesn't. A good analogy is an aging car. It works fine until suddenly one part begins to wear, which puts mechanical stress on other parts...and suddenly you're dealing with multiple costly repairs hitting in a short period of time.

If you want to see this play out in real time on a micro scale, go out to the local Airsoft or Paintball field. If the teams are at all evenly matched you will see at least one game where the two teams will spend most of the game firing back and forth at each other in a seeming stalemant, then they will lose one or two many players. Then the other team has freedom to move about the field and will crush the other teams in what seems like the blink of an eye.

Alternatively, play a team-based armored combat shooter (for a free one, try Mechwarrior Online). Typically the way matches play out is that the two teams will spend ages sniping and picking at each other. Suddenly one big piece or two will fall, the rest of the team isnt' getting the supporting fire, distraction, or suppression they need and everyone else on the losing team gets annihilated in the space of a minute or two. Y
 

Ozzymandius

Sparrow
Non-Christian

TruckDriver9

Woodpecker
According to the Sun:

VLADIMIR Putin's new flagship is on fire after being hit by a missile off the coast of Snake Island, Ukrainian officials have claimed.

The 409ft Admiral Makarov has reportedly been struck by the same Neptune missiles that sunk the Russian missile cruiser Moskva in the Black Sea last month:

Putin’s new flagship ‘on FIRE in Neptune missile strike near Snake Island’ weeks after Moskva sunk, Ukraine claims

For now

American OSINT guys haven't seen anything



Nothing in Russian media.

Russian telegram:

"According to the allegedly wrecked frigate "Admiral Makarov" near Snake Island - everything is fine with the warship.
The launch of the Neptune may have been. But there was no sinking of the ship: the frigate was afloat.
It's silly to say that there are no problems on Snake Island. But despite the fact that the island and Russian positions are regularly targeted by Bayraktar TB2, the media effect of the attacks is much higher than the real result.
Until now, Ukrainians can only boast of hitting the Raptor patrol boats in the vicinity of the island. The attacks on Snake Island were dictated by a political order from the Turks, for whom it is important to show the effectiveness of the Bayraktar TB2 UAV.
Since the beginning of the day, another Turkish UAV has been shot down near the island. After that, the Ukrainians announced the wrecked frigate Admiral Makarov in order to somehow offset the next reputational losses."
 
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911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
New analysis from Jacob Dreizin on the war situation:

Destruction of the Ukraine’s rail system continues


On Tuesday, May 3rd, Russia’s rocket forces decommissioned another six traction substations (transformers that feed power to third rails on the Ukraine’s rail system) in western Ukraine, at least three of them in or near Lvov.

Here is one of them:

Substation.jpg



Here is another. In this one, the electrical gear is still “standing”, but it has been completely burned out, which you can see better with a bigger view, if you click here.

Substation2.jpg

I don’t know, the above locations may be repairable. Some of the up to 20 substations attacked so far, have received new transformers from Ukrainian Railways’ reserve stash, and been brought back into service.

However, the transformers are reportedly an unusual (Soviet) type of 25kv unit that is no longer manufactured. At some point—and this point may have been reached already, we don’t know—there will be no more available. And as we can see, the “bombs are still falling”, and Russia’s target list is only getting longer.

Almost all “large” items (cannon, tanks, etc.) that the U.S. hegemonic bloc hopes to bring into the Ukraine, must go by rail or else by individual tractor-trailer (the latter option being very slow, and the U.S. bloc would have to cough up the trailers.)

Every time Russia attacks the substations, it completely gums up the entire rail system region-wide, throughout western Ukraine—everything stops.

At some point soon, everything will stop permanently, which also means, no passenger traffic and no imports/exports beyond what can be moved by road.

(Ukrainian Railways has relatively few working diesel machines in its locomotive fleet; most of the Ukraine’s rail transport relies on electric locomotives. Hypothetically, the U.S. bloc could “lend” the Ukraine some diesels, but the problem is, the Ukraine is on Soviet rail track gauge—European locomotives won’t be of any use.)

Not to mention, one of the rail-and-road bridges across the Dniepr (which conceptually separates eastern and western Ukraine, and over which pass fuel and munitions to Ukrainian forces facing off against Russia) had one of its supports damaged by a cruise missile this past Wednesday.

It appears the road (upper) section is now back in service, but I’m not sure if they’ve yet taken the risk of putting the weight of a loaded train on the railroad span.

Russia will probably assess the damage, then launch one or two more cruise missiles to finish off the bridge, as they did with a bridge southwest of Odessa some days ago.

The Odessa bridge was one of only two remaining crude oil arteries into the Ukraine.

Oil is offloaded from ships at the Moldovan terminal near Giurgiulesti near the mouth of the Danube, transferred to railcars (Moldova has Soviet-gauge track) and sent into southwest Ukraine.

Giurgiulesti.jpg


With one of the two bridges used by these trains having been fully decommissioned by Russia, the other bridge is just a matter of time.

When that happens, there will be no further “easy” oil for the Ukraine.

Bringing in tanker railcars from Poland is an option, but, the oil would have to be transferred to Soviet-gauge cars at or near the border, which would take quite a bit of time and potentially (if done on the Ukrainian side, I’m not sure) open the stagnant echelon to an easy missile attack.

As of now, refined petroleum prices in the Ukraine are spiking, there are lines at gas stations, and many stations are limiting purchases to 10 liters (about two and a half gallons.)

The Ukraine is simply running out of juice for civilian use. Soon enough, it will run out of diesel for its military as well.

The above video is from a gas station in Odessa. However, what’s on the price sign in this roughly week-old video, is outdated.

Here is roughly the new market price in or near Odessa, over two dollars per liter (quarter gallon):

Odessa-gas.jpg


Here is the new price for *premium* in Dnepropetrovsk province far to the northeast, which, unlike Odessa, does not have its own refinery. Over three dollars per liter:
Dnepro-gas.jpg


Note, the Slavic letters ДП stand for “diesel fuel” in Ukrainian. In both the above photos, there is no diesel fuel available (what little there is, for as long as there is, is going to the army.)

I called this in mid-late March, but I was very wrong about the timeline—I thought it would happen sooner. Nonetheless, it will happen. The Ukraine will run dry.

Regarding the Dniepr bridge I mentioned, this is the FIRST bridge over the Dniepr to be targeted. It likely won’t be the last.

I said a few weeks ago that this would happen. I did not expect infrastructure in far western Ukraine to be targeted before the Dniepr bridges, but hey, what’s a slight sequential disorder among friends?

As I have said many times since February: If the U.S. bloc does not cut a deal—and keeps escalating and sending in more and more junk—the Ukraine will be totally destroyed.

(In this event, the Ukraine would become The Rump State of Western Ukraine, a European Afghanistan, and with several large and severely undermaintained nuclear power plants, to boot.)

Sadly, the U.S. bloc picked the “totally destroyed” option.

You must understand, the destruction of the infrastructure and economy of a large, fairly modern country, cannot be done overnight.


Even tiny Serbia was bombed for 78 days (!!!)—by a more powerful air force than Russia’s—before it caved in 1999.

(For an endless stream of ridicule of morons who think Russia has failed because it couldn’t defeat the Ukraine in a week, see Larry Johnson’s blog at sonar21.com.)

But the destruction is happening, and it will happen.

As Tucker Carlson said on his show a few days ago, it’s not about the Ukraine.

It’s about preserving the U.S. hegemonic bloc, U.S. “credibility.” The Ukraine is the tool of the moment.

It will be discarded like a used birth control device.


Like Afghanistan, like the Kurds.

Did anyone notice, “they” stopped talking about defending one-party dictatorship Democracy in the Ukraine? We’ve not heard that fairy tale since March.

Everyone knows the score. Even the stupid aren’t THAT stupid.

 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
Other main point from Dreizen's post is that time is on Russia's side:

What happened to the script?

Everyone in the USA, and in Russia (going back years, as a full-scale war with the Ukraine was not wholly unexpected), assumed it would be a slow suffocation, that Russia would have limited time to win the war until it risked being brought down economically, followed by a Regime Change.

That’s how things seemed as recently as late March 2022. It was the conventional thinking. Now, the script has been flipped.

European public support for The Ukraine Narrative is sinking fast. German public support vs. opposition for arming the Ukraine, has gone from 60-36 (if I recall) to almost half-half, in just a month or so. Herr Kanzler is heckled and booed at every public appearance. The “real” inflation shock has not even started.

Having refused to pay for its gas in rubles (in other words, having refused to pay for its gas), Poland is now stealing pipeline gas meant for France and Italy.

After briefly crashing, Russia’s ruble has gained close to 20 percent against the dollar, SINCE JUST BEFORE THE INVASION.

Not only that, but Russia’s oil and gas export revenues have roughly DOUBLED (on a monthly basis) in the last two months.

On the military side, Russia is not running low on weapons.

No one expected Russia to have thousands of cruise missiles, but it did, and now we find out, it has the parts on hand to keep building more on two or three shifts per day, at least partly making up for what’s being used.

In short, what’s happened is, Russia has the time, and it’s Russia that is waiting out the U.S. bloc, not vice versa.
 

TruckDriver9

Woodpecker
The situation on the fronts on the evening of May 6 - google translated from Russian news


"On the fronts along the entire length of the line of contact, today there is serious resistance. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to counterattack near Kharkov in the direction of the border, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are advancing in the area of Leman, Yampol, Severodonetsk, we are making our way in Popasna, we are pressing from Zaporozhye and Donetsk.

Near Kharkov, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to counterattack in the direction of the border. After the withdrawal of units of the RF Armed Forces from Stary Saltov, the withdrawal of units from the northeastern outskirts of Kharkov was a matter of time. In order to prevent the RF Armed Forces from being locked in the boiler, the command made a decision to withdraw Russian units from Tsirkuny, Cherkassky Tishki and Liptsy.

On the Izyum part of the front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine pulled up reserves, reinforced with artillery, hit with MLRS and tochkas to a greater depth. Troops of the Russian allied forces break through the enemy's defenses to the south - Pashkove.
Under Liman, progress slowed down a bit due to forest fires.

In the Luhansk sector, the RF Armed Forces completed the cleansing of the residential areas south of Rubizhne, the last enemy units fortified themselves at the Zarya gunpowder factory. The settlement of Voevodovka was secured (between Rubizhny and Severodonetsk.) In the eastern quarters of Severodonetsk and the forests from Voevodovka - fighting.
The establishment of full control over Severodonetsk is impossible without the occupation of Lisichansk, located on the high western bank of the Donets.
Units of the NM LPR are advancing from the south towards Lisichansk. There is little progress, there are fights in Nizhny and Orekhovo.
In Popasna, the confrontation continues, for each building.

In Zaporozhye today, Russian troops using aviation and artillery launched an offensive against the settlements of Gulyaipole and Orekhovo.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer losses in manpower and equipment. Ukrainian troops opened fire on the town of Pologi.
There are civilian casualties.

In Mariupol, the evacuation of civilians continued today, including from Azovstal. During the day, 50 civilians were rescued, including 11 children."


Russian sourced maps 06.05.2022 - 3 at once. They would take an entire page, so just the links:

Kharkov - https://i.ibb.co/rHd64Sk/06-05-19-00-1-2.jpg
Donbass - https://i.ibb.co/2vJ3vDG/06-05.jpg
Zaporozhye - https://i.ibb.co/JzmztLp/06-05-1.jpg
 
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MajorStyles

Pelican
Catholic
Of particular interest are the five large central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. These countries take up a lot of room (equal to the size of Europe) and, at least geographically, have more incentive to be friendly with Russia and China than a transvestite-loving US.

On March 2nd, these countries refused to denounce Russia in the UN: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan abstained from voting while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan did not vote.

Moreover, Russia just met with Kazakhstan to affirm diplomatic ties. Apparently they already do millions of dollars worth of business and are looking to keep in that way. Also, Kyrgyzstan is deepening its industrial ties with Russia.

So Adam Schiiff and Pelosi still have a lot of work to do still. They need 24/7 propaganda machines on the ground in all these nations, convincing them that Western cultural rot is the hot new ticket.
 

get2choppaaa

Hummingbird
Orthodox
Allegedly this guy is a French general Klotye, who was captured by Federation troops.


Ive heard this rumor also. Intersting and all... but how does this video actually prove anything. That could be Bill Clinton for all we know.
Duran talked about this rumor... its very intersting, and I am sure nato elements have been there... but I would have suspected Canadian.
 
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