I think the rise of China is the greatest geopolitical challenge the US will face over the next ten to twenty years. Granted most candidates haven't talked about it, but Trump mainly talks about China in terms of their currency manipulation (which is incorrect anyway - China actually is taking measures to prop up the RMB, not keep it undervalued, they know that if it falls too much then they'll face even more capital flight) or tariffs.
But what about China's aggression in the south China sea? What do we do if China tries to retake Taiwan? Alot of people are criticizing John Kasich for being a warmonger in Asia but are we really prepared to cede Asia to Chinese hegemony? How can Trump bring back our sense of pride if China is able to dominate Asia?
What about China's establishment of the AIIB (which is basically a big FU to the US led world financial order)?
Or the fact that Chinese exports, and increasingly Chinese tech exports, are competing with American products throughout all markets in the world?
They are now the largest trading partners of a good chunk of the world's countries and own lots of our debt (and are in the process of diversifying). They have tremendous leverage.
Even if we do tax the shit out of Chinese imports to the US, most manufacturers in China are increasingly focused on selling to the Chinese market or exporting to other developing countries
No one has really thought seriously about the rise of China and I'm curious to see how a nationalist/realist like Trump deals with them. For the last two Administrations we've had mainly a liberal attitude - trying to get Chinese to open up their markets but ignoring the fact that as China gets richer they funnel more money into their military and undermining US leadership in the world. We've always thought that as China gets more internationalized, they would become democratic and more like us. Hasn't happened though.
One of the most prominent realist scholars these days is John Mearsheimer (http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204) and many of his positions would probably align with Trump (skepticism of Israeli alliance, acknowledging that the West was somewhat at fault in Ukraine). Mearsheimer says that China is basically our enemy and we have to do all we can to prevent their rise in order to maintain US geopolitical advantage, even if it harms US growth in the short term. Will Trump take this position?
If so, it makes no sense for Trump to go after Japan on trade and paying for troops there - they are our principle partner in containing China.
He would also have to reconsider his opposition to TPP, which is partly designed to create favorable conditions for US exporters and exclude China from increasing trade ties with its neighbors.
On another note,
Do you guys think it's a smart move for Trump not to talk about his foreign policy inner circle? I don't see the harm in mentioning someone like Mearsheimer, or even talking about a scholar that he admires (like Samuel Huntington or any other scholar that's both respected but also challenges the neocons and SJWs). By naming some scholars, thinkers, or professionals that he listens to it will at least help people understand him a bit better. Or perhaps I'm wrong and it's all part of his strategy to get more attention and piss people off.
But what about China's aggression in the south China sea? What do we do if China tries to retake Taiwan? Alot of people are criticizing John Kasich for being a warmonger in Asia but are we really prepared to cede Asia to Chinese hegemony? How can Trump bring back our sense of pride if China is able to dominate Asia?
What about China's establishment of the AIIB (which is basically a big FU to the US led world financial order)?
Or the fact that Chinese exports, and increasingly Chinese tech exports, are competing with American products throughout all markets in the world?
They are now the largest trading partners of a good chunk of the world's countries and own lots of our debt (and are in the process of diversifying). They have tremendous leverage.
Even if we do tax the shit out of Chinese imports to the US, most manufacturers in China are increasingly focused on selling to the Chinese market or exporting to other developing countries
No one has really thought seriously about the rise of China and I'm curious to see how a nationalist/realist like Trump deals with them. For the last two Administrations we've had mainly a liberal attitude - trying to get Chinese to open up their markets but ignoring the fact that as China gets richer they funnel more money into their military and undermining US leadership in the world. We've always thought that as China gets more internationalized, they would become democratic and more like us. Hasn't happened though.
One of the most prominent realist scholars these days is John Mearsheimer (http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204) and many of his positions would probably align with Trump (skepticism of Israeli alliance, acknowledging that the West was somewhat at fault in Ukraine). Mearsheimer says that China is basically our enemy and we have to do all we can to prevent their rise in order to maintain US geopolitical advantage, even if it harms US growth in the short term. Will Trump take this position?
If so, it makes no sense for Trump to go after Japan on trade and paying for troops there - they are our principle partner in containing China.
He would also have to reconsider his opposition to TPP, which is partly designed to create favorable conditions for US exporters and exclude China from increasing trade ties with its neighbors.
On another note,
Do you guys think it's a smart move for Trump not to talk about his foreign policy inner circle? I don't see the harm in mentioning someone like Mearsheimer, or even talking about a scholar that he admires (like Samuel Huntington or any other scholar that's both respected but also challenges the neocons and SJWs). By naming some scholars, thinkers, or professionals that he listens to it will at least help people understand him a bit better. Or perhaps I'm wrong and it's all part of his strategy to get more attention and piss people off.
